SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Recent Posts
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 13, 2019 9:43:58 GMT -5
It's not about winning in 2020. It's about the payroll. They'll look decent, but don't expect a World Series team. I hope Price is gone, gone, gone. Let him suck for another team. Once the payroll is under $207, then they'll concentrate on winning. That may not happen in 2020, but they'll get it done by 2021. Then some of their cheap minor leaguers will be ready. Just remember, it's all about the money, nothing else. 3.62 FIP in 2019. I also hear he was good in the 2018 season, but who can possibly remember anything that far back?
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 11, 2019 12:17:13 GMT -5
I'm surprised Kelly couldn't top that guarantee stateside (if that's what he wanted to do). I can't find any info on what he's actually throwing these days, but his K/9 was only 6.3. I'm guessing he might be kind of a junkballer now, which is the exact type of pitcher MLB teams aren't interested in these days. Pretty cool that he gets to play real baseball for real money in Korea as opposed to toiling in the minors, though.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 9, 2019 17:37:08 GMT -5
Price for Upton straight up is your realistic starting point, folks.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 8, 2019 15:52:42 GMT -5
Gerry unfortunately, Bernie probably already sold out with the promise that the Vermont Lake Monsters would be spared along with another dozen teams or so. Bernie gets his win by giving his blessing to what MLB wanted all along. Do people not realize that random US Senators have, like, zero authority over any of this? You can't "sell out" something you have no control over in the first place.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 8, 2019 9:53:19 GMT -5
Just for anyone who's on the fence about reading this, it's a hard read in terms of some of the content, but this isn't a take-your-medicine deal, it's fascinating and compelling. Regarding the content, if medical horror stories really aren't your thing, maybe skip it, but I'm pretty sensitive to that stuff myself and I didn't have too much of a problem with it.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 7, 2019 12:06:00 GMT -5
Okay, even if you want to pick and choose what numbers "seem" more reasonable to you, which in my opinion is you just following your confirmation bias and a pretty bad way to do things, that's fine I'm not going to harp on it. I'm following a projections system which is A) a far better tool for the job than any version of WAR and B) the least biased way of estimating a player's current skill level. But you can't look at the Rays downgrading their projections from 92 to 90 wins in a vacuum because that's not how that works. This isn't the only move they're going to make. They now have an additional ~$5 million or so (according to Spotrac) to play around with after shedding Pham's salary. You can probably find a 2-3 win player out of that if you're a smart team like the Rays, or you can treat that as surplus money where you can throw $15 million at a player that's much better than Pham where before you only had 10. Smart teams continue to be smart because they do things like this on the margins to set themselves up for the bigger fish. I mean, fine, but I'm not giving them credit for that before they actually do it.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 7, 2019 8:00:19 GMT -5
Longhi had a pretty bad K/BB ratio in AAA last year, and his .180 ISO is actually not great either considering the AAA ball. Statistically he looks like more of an emergency call-up type right now, but he doesn't turn 25 until next August, so it's not THAT much of a fantasy that he could take another step forward and become the next Holt type in terms of value. Stop me if you've heard this before, but it's a nice depth pickup of the type the Red Sox haven't had enough of in recent years.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 7, 2019 7:37:35 GMT -5
Is it at all relevant that Pham is much better than Renfroe, or is that just not a consideration in baseball anymore? The Rays did this for the prospect; they'll have about the same tolerance for paying Renfroe as they did Cory Dickerson. It's relevant but it's one of many factors that go into these decisions. Renfroe was a 2.5 WAR player last year, Pham 3.7. So "much" better is debatable, but yes he's better. The Renfroe side of the package offers these benefits, though.. - Renfroe is younger - Renfroe is under team control for longer - Renfroe is a fraction of the cost - And in addition to getting Renfroe, you're also getting a prospect who has the potential to be a... idk... 5 WAR kinda guy at peak? I haven't been a huge bWAR/fWAR partisan in the past, but anecdotally, bWAR does seem to produce a lot more obvious garbage results. 1.5 of Renfroe's bWAR in 2019 is his defense, which... uhh, no? Or last year when they had Harper as like a -35 defender, or how they have Walker Buehler is as like an average middle reliever in terms of value.. fWAR's numbers seem a lot more reasonable to me, as do the Steamer projections: Renfroe: .231/.293/.460, 1 fWAR Pham: .271/.366/.466 3.2 fWAR Pham is a lot better. Yes, the prospect return justifies it, but it does kind of go to the weird sad nature of baseball right now that we're all talking about how smartly the Rays downgraded their projections from 92 to 90 wins next year.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 6, 2019 15:28:43 GMT -5
Rays trade OF Tommy Pham and a prospect to the Padres for Hunter Renfroe and stud SS prospect Xavier Edwards. Another great trade by the Rays. Pham, 31 yrs old, signed for 2 more yrs while Renfroe, 27 yrs old, under control for 4 more yrs. Edwards, a switch hitter, was 38th overall pick in 2018 draft. These are the type of creative deals that Chaim Bloom needs to make to pare payroll and add youth to the Sox and improve the farm system. I hope to see some similar deals like this made by the Sox in the coming weeks. Blake Snell hates it though, apparently. Is it at all relevant that Pham is much better than Renfroe, or is that just not a consideration in baseball anymore? The Rays did this for the prospect; they'll have about the same tolerance for paying Renfroe as they did Cory Dickerson.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 6, 2019 15:24:58 GMT -5
Definitely seems worth punting the 2020 season for.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 6, 2019 12:25:39 GMT -5
They lost Severino for the whole year, and it's not like anyone really over-performed. Who's the regression candidate? They can't count on 150 innings out of Paxton again? That's like... the most Paxton-ish number of innings. Their horses were Tanaka (average) and Happ (bad), so they would have been pretty replaceable even if they had gotten hurt. German had 24 starts playing over his head (4.72 FIP). Sabathia's gone. Tanaka's elbow is supposedly jelly (though same as Price's?). They need a lot more than Cole. Maybe they'll get it, but Cole alone doesn't get them there. He had a 4.95 ERA. You're making the case for why Cole benefits them so much. They would be taking 200+ innings of garbage from guys like CC/Happ and giving them to the best pitcher alive instead. I really hope the Angels can land him.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 6, 2019 11:12:26 GMT -5
Yankees still don't scare me. Their starting pitching even with Cole just isn't good enough. They got 136 games out of their top 5 starters and 151 out of the top 6 (Chad Green had 15 starts). I doubt they can bank on that health again. They lost Severino for the whole year, and it's not like anyone really over-performed. Who's the regression candidate? They can't count on 150 innings out of Paxton again? That's like... the most Paxton-ish number of innings. Their horses were Tanaka (average) and Happ (bad), so they would have been pretty replaceable even if they had gotten hurt.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 5, 2019 6:21:46 GMT -5
So my suggestion earlier to steal/hire and promote Strom, the Houston pitcher whisperer earlier this off-season, may now have some validity? I still don't think it necessarily has to be a Houston guy, but yes, I expect a significant hire in this area.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 5, 2019 6:19:14 GMT -5
That's up to 80% of the best news Mets fans could ever hear.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 4, 2019 20:23:38 GMT -5
Raise your hand if you're glad Dave Dombrowski isn't involved with replacing Bannister.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 4, 2019 11:21:18 GMT -5
I think Erod could very well improve on all his numbers this year but still not match his 19-6 record. He is the only starter that doesn't have questions looming over his head and they should think about moving him? I'm not on board with that. I am on board with him being close to an ace. Agreed. He’s an extension candidate, certainly not a trade chip. While not an original signee, he’s gone from AA to MLB with the team, and I think he qualifies as a development success, since a big part of his success has been the changes implemented on his arrival in Portland. After some lingering health issues, he’s shown a very steady incremental improvement along the lines of Bogey. Last year reminds me a lot of Bogey’s 2018: starting to put it all together and refine it. While there were no particularly remarkable changes in Rodriguez’s deeper data last year, he did evolve over the course of the season, and improved his sequencing and location choices. He’s been dropping his LD rate bit by bit, and his GB rate (I think driven by CH usage/location) jumped last year. He limits hard contact. His O-sw% has been creeping up, and Z-sw% creeping down. All very good signs. After his first few rough starts, he was excellent. I think there’s very clearly another level, and just like Bogey in ‘19 vs ‘18, I think Rodriguez is primed to take another significant step. He might not win 19 games (with a .760 WP) again, but I can certainly see another 200-210 IP, low-3 or even sub-3 ERA, a drop in WHIP close to 1.0, and 10-10.5 K/9. Last year he was a legit 2 and I still think he’s destined to be a 1a or even a true 1. He’s just now entering his historical pitching prime. He’s absolutely a guy you lock up for 6 more years, especially when it could easily come at a moderate discount akin to Bogey’s deal (and arguably now a big discount). I've always been and still am an Eduardo fan, but I have to disagree with this. He's been remarkably consistent: 2017: 25.8 K% 8.6 BB% 2018: 26.4 K% 8.1 BB% 2019: 24.8 K% 8.7 BB% The jump in GB rate is interesting, and you're right, the groundball rate on his changeup specifically spiked all the way up to a very nice 66.9%. The plate discipline stuff... I'm pretty skeptical that a couple points of O-swing% means anything. And honestly, a breakout based on spotting the changeup really well isn't necessarily a breakout I trust that much. It's not like when James Paxton changed his delivery and got three extra tics on the gun AND improved command. It's a guy who might not spot his changeup quite so well next year.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 4, 2019 10:57:07 GMT -5
Dustin come on man, just retire and take a golden parachute team job please. The Sox have the team and the window to go after it this year, forget about the cap for the most part and just do it. If at the midway point they aren't looking good because the rotation is a mess due to injuries or poor performance then do what you need to do, blow it up. Thing is with all the question marks the team could go either way. Isn't there a direct coorelation between a healthy starting rotation and winning the WS? If the Sox rotation stays healthy and pitches to their ability isn't it one of the best in baseball? Give it a chance don't hamstring it by getting under the cap, it's not like they are losing money either way.
I mean really how many teams go into the season with 3 or 4 guys who could be top 5 in MVP voting along with a potentially great rotation? The timing to get under the cap is terrible but it is what it is. Just go for it as the alternative at this point in time doesn't make sense. Here's the thing, even if money is the ONLY concern... you could shed so much more payroll by letting Price/Sale re-establish their value a little. There's no "trade these aging pitchers before they get hurt and their value tanks" play here; they both ended their seasons hurt and their value is currently tanked. And if you are going to bring those guys back, it means you're probably not going to have a super active off-season in general, at least not in terms of big money moving around.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 4, 2019 10:14:17 GMT -5
I don't really see much in Osich's stats and pitch data that makes me believe he is anything other than a LOOGY, when they should be extinct now. Will be interesting to see what they do with him. Liam Hendricks was about as fringy as Osich coming into 2019 so, truly, who knows?
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 3, 2019 11:32:22 GMT -5
And Treinen...tough NT after an incredible ‘18. There's guys who are hard to evaluate, and then there's guys like Treinen who make you question what the point of even trying is.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 2, 2019 12:25:13 GMT -5
Interesting on Bradley. I honestly came around on the idea of non-tender, and I think they'll have a hard time trading him for value at $11m. Unless someone thinks they can soften the offensive valleys. If you want to be optimistic, you could say it's a sign that getting under the cap isn't as urgent a priority for the Sox as some have feared.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Nov 30, 2019 11:47:10 GMT -5
I do wonder if MLB will try and do something to disincentivize the opener somehow if it continues to spread. I'm not sure what that would be though - you can't FORCE the starter to go a certain number of innings. Maybe # of pitches except in the case of an injury?I could see the players union wanting that too. The opener could be seen as a tactic to keep starting pitcher salaries down, in their eyes. Probably a requirement that whoever starts the game goes five complete innings, and then a list of exemptions... if you throw more than X pitches total they can take you out whenever, more than X pitches in a single inning, more than X runs given up, etc. As to the bit about the players union wanting this... I actually think everyone should want this. I think that if you were to fully optimize pitcher usage within the current bounds of the rules, it would make baseball almost unwatchable. For instance, one tiny bit of inefficiency that hasn't been touched is the convention of not lifting your pitcher in the middle of an AB except in the case of an injury. But really, you should always change pitchers mid AB. People have looked at it and it's definitely a huge disadvantage for the hitter, and some college teams have apparently started doing this. But does anyone really want to watch that version of baseball? Critical AB, pitcher gets strike two... and then we bring in an opposite handed pitcher, bringing the game to a screeching halt and putting the hitter in a completely impossible situation?
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Nov 27, 2019 16:33:39 GMT -5
I'm kinda surprised that the Yankee's A-Rod extension hasn't been mentioned. It did end up being a necessary move for the '09 team so not a total loss unfortunately, but if the Yankees had to win one I'm glad it came at the cost of one of the worst back halfs of a contract you could imagine.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Nov 27, 2019 15:07:52 GMT -5
4/34 for an Andrew Miller Starter Kit doesn't suck. Amazing how fast a pitcher can move his value, Pomeranz earned 34 million dollars in 28 innings.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Nov 27, 2019 12:31:00 GMT -5
His "I hold all the cards now" thing after they just won the World Series made me cringe and wish they were interviewing somebody else. Everything felt jovial and happy and there he is with a sneer. I mean, was the media supposed to pretend that he hadn't been 0-9 in post-season starts and that those 3 wins he got were huge? I mean, really? Just say, I'm so glad I was able to make good on my promise about saving the post-seasons wins for the Red Sox. If he says something like that, well that's classy and I applaud. He does his "nah, nah, nah, nah" thing and I don't respect that honestly. I mean, god forbid a player ever admits they're thinking the thing that everyone knows they're thinking.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Nov 27, 2019 12:11:12 GMT -5
Last post about dealing away a fan favorite like Benny, but Chaim Bloom was a part of the Rays when they dealt away a soon to be declining 29 year old Chris Archer who had 3 years of control left (sound familiar?). He got full price of admission for that deal. That's the kind of magic I would hope to see in a deal for Benintendi if it were to happen. Proposing that Bloom can repeat the Archer trade is a lot like proposing that the Red Sox can draft the next Mookie Betts in the fifth round that year. I'd hate to see them trade away good old Benny Rodriguez. Agreed, selling low on The Jet would be foolish. Unless it's to the Dodgers, I suppsoe that's just fate. Speed declines with age, but Benny's fell off way more than you would expect this year. The power too; which collapsed in a really extreme way considering the environment. He also had a huge spike in his swinging strike rate when contact had always been a strength for him... if he was like 2018 but just 5% worse in every way, I'd kinda look at him like someone who's reached a plateau in his development, but the falloff is was sharp enough to make me think there was something specifically wrong. A nagging injury, some kind of World Series hangover where he wasn't in the right shape coming into the year, something in his personal life... no idea, but I definitely wouldn't sell him now. Way too much potential for him to be next year's Josh Bell.
|
|
|