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Post by p23w on Dec 17, 2016 7:28:17 GMT -5
Getting back to dombrowski. He was hired to get us back in the playoffs and hopefully bring us a championship or two. Year 1 - he signs price. Fills a huge big league hole. . Great move. Year 1 - he trades for Kimbrell. Fills a huge big league hole. Consensus is he may have overpaid for a closer. Year 1 - he trades for smith, who people feared would be a tommy John victim sooner rather than later. And of course smith's ucl pops like an old violin string and he pitches no meaningful innings for us. Year 1 - he lucks into a break out year from porcello. Year 1 - he lucks into a bounce back year from Hanley. Year 1 - he lucks into panda going on the dl for the year and gets half a season of production from shaw. Year 1 - he lucks into a great first half from wright. Year 1 - he trades for zeigler after the smith debacle. Year 1 - he trades for Pomeranz, who is a tommy John victim in waiting and the consensus is he overpaid. Year 1 - he messes up swihart who eventually lands on the dl for the year. Year 1 - he lucks into benintendi's brilliance and reaps the benefit of a future stud, End of year 1 - we make the playoffs. The youngsters, not named benintendi, are tight at the plate and price gets lit up like a pinball machine. We are three and done. Year 2 - he trades for chris sale. Consensus is it is an all in situation and he might have overpaid a tad. Year 2 - he trades for thornburg. Another guy on the verge of being a tommy John victim. Concensus is another overpay, Year 2 - signs free agent Moreland. We all yawn! If we win it all in November 2017, it will all be worth it. Bottom line: dombrowski is what he is. A flawed GM. He is great at building pitching staffs and great at identifying bats that produce. But his old weaknesses are still there. He can not build a bullpen to save his life and right now our Achilles heel is our bullpen, just like what happened to him in Detroit. Experience and smarts can get you just so far. He is missing that X factor to get us over the top. And oh by the way, he ran off a ton of young über talented operations people who could have helped him get over his flaws and is now surrounded by yes men. And you thought the 86 year drought was painful? Bravo. My observations are similar. Price, IMHO was a nice acquisition, but a HUGE overpay, which will (already has?) negatively affected payroll flexibility. The Ziegler trade was brilliant. Failing to re sign the guy reminds me of failing to resign Miller after the late season trade for ERod. Keeping Benintendi was wise. He reminds me of an athletic version of Schwarber (sp?). Plate discipline is off the charts for his amount of experience. Winning it all in 2017 will be quite the challenge. The bullpen, which was coming together at the end of the season this year is being remastered, why, I am at a loss to comprehend. The rotation added 200 quality innings has impressive depth and will presumably have few health issues. This, along with a bullpen that was getting it's mojo together at the end of 2016 had me very optimistic, until DD began his bullpen make over. As you point out, a November celebration makes it all worthwhile and my angst goes into the dust bin.
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Post by p23w on Dec 17, 2016 6:58:20 GMT -5
Tazawa has never even pitched 70 innings in a season. But he probably pitched 199 more warming up almost every game. He even, politely, complained about it in a NESN interview. I remember yelling at the TV regularly about Taz warming up and not being used. Every relief pitcher in baseball warms up, and depending on the situation may not get into the game. Ross warmed up numerous times in the bullpen and never got into the game in 2016. It's not just the Red Sox, or Farrell. Tazawa, for whatever reason simply does not have the arm strength to do what is asked of him. Marlin blogs are lamenting this and pointing the finger of blame at Mattingly already. In contrast Ziegler has a "rubber arm" compared to Taz and answers the call with consistency each time. His salary is commensurate with his value. He will be missed far more than Tazawa.
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Post by p23w on Dec 16, 2016 19:46:29 GMT -5
I don't think Chapman gets it. In the playoffs, particularly the WS you have to expect the manager goes with his best. The big Unit closed out game #7 (getting 4 outs) after throwing 104 pitches the previous day. Note: Chapman managed 58 innings despite being suspended for 30 days at the start of the 2016 season. Tazawa pitched a total of 49 innings in 2016. Tazawa simply cannot answer the bell in a manner to benefit a team over the course of an entire season, unless said team has a rotation full of starters that go 6+ innings each time out.
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Post by p23w on Dec 16, 2016 8:55:39 GMT -5
Tazawa heading to Miami for 2 years and 12 million. Just went back and watched that Miggy strikeout on 4 straight fastballs. With one out and a runner on third and the 1-0 score. After he struck him, I kind of knew we're winning that WS trophy. I'll miss Taz. To put Miggy's AB in some perspective, he was suffering from a flexor strain. He had almost no power in his swing from mid-September on. By the playoffs the word was out and Cabrera was subject to inside heat with very good results for the defense. A healthy Cabrera and that series could have very easily had a different outcome. Good for the Sox, a nail in the coffin for Dombrowski's tenure with the Tigers. Baseball.
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Post by p23w on Dec 15, 2016 12:57:28 GMT -5
I had my fair share of idiotic predictions that didn't pan out in the last few years, but I think my boy Drew is going to have a great 2017. I very much like his stuff and being changed to the most lackadaisical from the most lackadaisical and irrelevant team in the MLB to a team in the middle of a title run can't be easy for anyone and I also think he was gassed and the catchers didn't know him very well. I really do think he's going to be very good. From your keyboard... to God's ear.
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Post by p23w on Dec 13, 2016 16:29:41 GMT -5
I am not inclined to trade Buchholz. If all is going according to plan in 2017 but a problem or flaw is exposed (other than starting pitching) then, assuming Buchholz has continued his run from the second half of 2016 (and built additional value) that would be the time to leverage his value in a trade. What do you do with our other staters? Who's in your top 5? That's for JF to decide. I would expect Sale, Porcello, Price to headline the rotation and some combination of Wright, ERod, Pomeranz and Buccholz to round it out. Keeping in mind that only Buccholz (twice) and Pomeranz (once) ever pitched more than 170 innings in a given year What if Buchholz pitches like first 2/3 of 2016 and not the last 1/3 of season? Doubtful, but if that is indeed the case he will not be on the 2018 roster, You also need to look at the money, we need to move his money to give us wiggle room . In season not a ton of teams can take on close to his 13.5 million in salary. No I don't. That is up to the ownership. It is their team, not mine. In your plan if Buchholz pitches poorly and we can't trade him unless we pay the majority of his salary. We would lose the ability to take on salary mid season. That would depend on what we need, who wants to take a flyer on Buccholz and how badly both teams want to go about this transaction. I believe the Red Sox are blessed with depth and that it would be an unlikely scenario that a stop gap solution could not be found from within. That said, and a situation presents itself where a player becomes available, that the brain trust feels we absolutely must have, then the loss of a poor performing Buccholz as a through in helps to offset the salary of the must have addition. I'd much rather clear his salary now and take the best offer we can get now. Reports are showing that DD is trying to get a good prospect for him right now. So he's not just dumping him and his salary. He wanted the Marlins #5 prospect. If we get anything close to that I will be doing backflips. Buchholz is just far too risky to gamble on. You can never have enough pitching, especially when the guys auditioning for the #4 and #5 spots have only one 170IP season under their belts.
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Post by p23w on Dec 13, 2016 8:54:15 GMT -5
If you look at the teams with post season success (over, say the past 10 years), the only surprise to me is why this trend wasn't picked up earlier by baseball "brain trusts" and sabermatricians. Miller was (still is) an absolute steal. FWIW I would take Jansen over Chapman, all things considered. Absolutely! The Yankees were at the forefront. I recall arguing to resign Miller after we traded him for Erod. No draft pick loss just bucks for a guy who was coming into his own with great stuff. Chapman situation before Chapman. Not doing so reenforced my belief that talent evaluation and recognizing emerging trends timely is often times woeful. What compounds this for me is the track record of Dan Dombrowski and bullpen building. Sometimes you get lucky, sometimes you build with false or erroneous premises. Almost always the guy in the crosshairs is the manager, not the GM. The fan wants to believe the best, but trying to rationalize the machinations of the "brain trust" with the mis/disinformation provided about the business side of the team puts the rationalization process in the ether. For me listening to the likes of Miller talk about his role, and watching Jansen's insane movement on 95 plus pitches is what I want. The physical fact that both seem to have stress free mechanics seals the deal.... their track records are less relevant given the attitude, stuff, and mechanics. The duration and amount of their contracts is even less relevant. The Yankees were blessed with Mariano Rivera, and may be trying to relive that comfort zone with Chapman. The prevailing narrative is that a team needs a bullpen loaded with power arms. The narrative fails to take into account the availability of such arms and their ultimate priority, that of getting outs. Certain situations may call for ground balls, certain matchups may rely on L/R splits. Then there is the matter of frequency of usage. Power arms like Chapman don't seem to stand up well to high frequency or multiple innings. Rubber arms like Ziegler seem to perform more consistently under these circumstances. Point being, rather than trying to build a bullpen based soley on a theory (or popular narrative) may not be the right way to go about it, unless all the pieces are in place to begin with. Given Dombrowski's track record and his (to me) desparate attempt to build a bullpen based on the prevailing narrative, he is failing to make the best use of his available assets. K's are nice. Swing and misses are nice (although unless they come with two strikes i fail to see their value). What often accompany's these stats are walks, which for a relief pitcher is a pet peeve of mine. Give me one or two rubber armed guys, who throw strikes and I'll be happy. Throw in some guys with stellar inherited runners left on base numbers and I am most pleased.
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Post by p23w on Dec 12, 2016 17:05:36 GMT -5
I am not inclined to trade Buchholz. If all is going according to plan in 2017 but a problem or flaw is exposed (other than starting pitching) then, assuming Buchholz has continued his run from the second half of 2016 (and built additional value) that would be the time to leverage his value in a trade.
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Post by p23w on Dec 12, 2016 14:44:21 GMT -5
To think that just wondering years ago Andrew Miller only got 4/36. The market for relievers is truly out of control. And that's not a knock on Jansen or Chapman. They're as elite as you can get. It's just crazy how inflated their prices are now. If you look at the teams with post season success (over, say the past 10 years), the only surprise to me is why this trend wasn't picked up earlier by baseball "brain trusts" and sabermatricians. Miller was (still is) an absolute steal. FWIW I would take Jansen over Chapman, all things considered.
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Post by p23w on Dec 9, 2016 17:25:43 GMT -5
So what are people's thoughts on this bullpen? How good do we think it will be? Who will be in it? Will Carson Smith be ready for the start of the year? My guess is he starts on the DL.. Closer: Kimbrel (R) 8th: Thornburg (R) 7/8: Kelly (R) 6/7: Barnes (R) 6/7: Ross (L) Lefty: Abad (L) Swing: Wright (R) TJ surgery is a 12-month recovery, minimum, and there's a reasonable body of evidence that correlates early return (12-14 months) with poorer outcomes. I'd imagine late July/early August at the earliest, with an outside chance he's back before the end of June. Starting the year on the team an active would be unprecedented. Point of reference (and take it with a grain of salt, because Lackey was 35, not 25), Lackey had surgery in early Nov 2011 and came back in (late?) April 2013, almost 17 months. Carson Smith had his May 24, 2016. So think July 24, 2017 if he's a fast healer. He's unlikely to be very effective at first, too. So it probably won't be until the playoffs that he'll be a major factor, provided he's lucky and hard-working. Recovery from TJ surgery is dependent on two primary factors. A) The quality of the surgeon and B) The ability of the patient to withstand pain. Part A is akin to the skill level of the surgeon, his/her technique and experience. Part B is more personality dependent than age dependent. What is of concern to me is the health of this bullpen. Kimbrell, Smith, and Thornburg in particular. I think we are going to miss a rubber armed relief pitcher. Wright may qualify, but as he himself says his money pitch is not their in high humidity situations. It may have been wise to keep Ziegler in the mix for 2017.
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Post by p23w on Dec 9, 2016 1:05:26 GMT -5
The 2017 Red Sox have the talent to get 950 quality innings from their starting rotation. This is HUGE. Even if the offense has a 10% drop off in run production, the team should be a lock for 95+ wins. A healthy bullpen and this team will win the pennant. The pieces are in place.
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Post by p23w on Nov 22, 2016 16:53:43 GMT -5
Call me confused or any thing else you want but, I just do not understand why the White Sox would trade Sale. Starting Pitching is just to hard to get. Especially someone of his caliber signed for the contract that he is under. Chicago is not a small market team needing to shed payroll nor (I don't believe) are they in a total rebuilding mode. I just do not see Sale as being available. It reminds me of all the talk of trying to get Felix Hernandez from Seattle. Sale has caused problems for the front office. I believe they would move him, but they will ask much. My fear is that a team like the NYY's, flush with prospects will offer the Chisox, 3 highly rated young players and an Ellsbury or Gardener. If Sale is traded, I'd just as soon see him go to the National League.
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Post by p23w on Nov 22, 2016 16:36:18 GMT -5
If the NL was smart they would have a special award for pitchers that hit. Base it on OPS+, minimum 50 AB's, $250K cash value, call it the Earl Wilson Award.
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Post by p23w on Oct 29, 2016 17:36:15 GMT -5
IIRC, the Sox offered Miller a nice reliever contract and the MFY flexed their financial muscle. I can't blame him, but he really didn't show much loyalty to the team that saved him from the scrap heap. Oh well. He's perfect for this kind of role, maybe even one of a kind in baseball, but he still is just a guy who's pitching great. He's not rewriting the book. Francona's the guy I always root for. He was great here, and they f***ed with him on the way out the door. I hope his players can close the deal. Miller would have re-signed with the red Sox, if they had matched the NYYankee offer. Why the RS did not match the Yankee offer is a mystery to me. Francona, OTOH, was the victim of Beltre clobbering Ellsbury and the ridiculous "stat based" signing of Carl Crawford. Too bad. Tito is/was probably the best manager of the Red Sox in my lifetime.
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Post by p23w on Oct 20, 2016 7:53:38 GMT -5
Tito knows when to "release the Kracken".
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Post by p23w on Oct 19, 2016 21:42:42 GMT -5
I projected Hill to pitch 120 innings in 2016 (on this forum, before he signed with Beane). More importantly Hill pitched (now 116) quality innings, which has and remains a concern for the Red Sox. If you are making the comparison of Price, 220+ IP and an ERA of 4 or Hill and 110 IP and an ERA of 2 and change, you miss my point. This is not about Price or Hill this is about getting the maximum quality innings from your starting pitching. Of note is that Hill's missed time is not arm, elbow or shoulder related. His missed time was caused by blisters. Going forward with the knowledge that blisters can be treated and monitored Hill should project to 150-160 innings next year... quality innings all things being equal. Dombrowski's shiny new toys (Price, Kimbrell, Smith), did not deliver the value or the quality that Hill did. IMO, this misjudgement rivals the failure to match the NYYankee bid for Miller. I agree. I would have went with Hill too. Though I'm not certain at the time what I would have done with Wright. With that said, "the shiney new toys" helped get us into the post season along with the mindset to start season that the coach is going to be allowed to play his best. And as for next year, I'm comfortable with our starting staff. We were a last place team last year. The shiney new toys helped us get to 1st in the best division in baseball and unless other teams make huge moves we'll probably be favored to take the division again. Looking forward to next year being favored instead of being favored to be in the dungeon. Let's get Chapman, a catcher, a cheap to moderate priced rh bat that can play 1b and 3b, and trade Kimbrel. The shiny new toys contributed, but make no mistake, it was the massive offense that made a far more significant contribution. I'm not so sure that the ALE is the best division in baseball. I fully expect that 2017 will be quite competitive in the ALE. Each team has glaring deficiencies the Red Sox being quality innings from it's starters and inconsistency from its' bullpen. I am torn with regard to Chapman and I seriously doubt the Red Sox will sign him. I don't think we need to shop for a catcher, Aaron Hill fills your bill for 1B and 3B. Trading one of the shiny new toys would reflect badly on those responsible for his acquisition. Signing Rich Hill would help, but it will be expensive (not that this matters).
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Post by p23w on Oct 19, 2016 19:10:56 GMT -5
"We" tried. Dombrowski wanted shiny new toys, /he wanted a better guarantee of a rotation slot than the Sox could give him. The hole was at the top of the rotation. Price was a much better fit for that even with the benefit of hindsight. Note that Hill, who had major questions about how he'd hold up over the course of a season pointed out by myself and others here, only pitched 110 innings this year. Maybe you could argue they should have pushed Kelly to the bullpen to make room for Hill, but that's not the "shiny new toys" argument. I projected Hill to pitch 120 innings in 2016 (on this forum, before he signed with Beane). More importantly Hill pitched (now 116) quality innings, which has and remains a concern for the Red Sox. If you are making the comparison of Price, 220+ IP and an ERA of 4 or Hill and 110 IP and an ERA of 2 and change, you miss my point. This is not about Price or Hill this is about getting the maximum quality innings from your starting pitching. Of note is that Hill's missed time is not arm, elbow or shoulder related. His missed time was caused by blisters. Going forward with the knowledge that blisters can be treated and monitored Hill should project to 150-160 innings next year... quality innings all things being equal. Dombrowski's shiny new toys (Price, Kimbrell, Smith), did not deliver the value or the quality that Hill did. IMO, this misjudgement rivals the failure to match the NYYankee bid for Miller.
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Post by p23w on Oct 19, 2016 10:53:10 GMT -5
I would be super surprised. Erod is nice, but Sale he ain't. Right, not now. But you don't know what Sale is like in 2 years either. You are right, but Sale is young (27) and has a track record (albeit with a terrible fielding team and not much offensive support). Erod has the elusive potential and not much of a track record with an offensive behemoth and a good defense. Sale has had an easier division with which to pad his track record but he has a winning record against the Jays (and is a NYYankee killer). That and the fact that, like Price he gives you 200+ IP. I think it is with crimson colored glasses that Red Sox fans view Erod, whereas Sale is and has been top shelf going on 5 years. I am optimistic about Erod, but I have serious doubts that he will approach the status of Sale.
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Post by p23w on Oct 19, 2016 10:38:16 GMT -5
If by "we" you refer to Dave Dombrowski, then don't hold your breath. We could have outbid the NYYankees for Miller when we had the chance. I'm not going to hold my breath, but DD wasn't the Sox GM when we lost Miller. We "lost" Miller in a trade for Erod. The NYYankees signed him as a FA from Bal. Miller was inclined to come back to the Red Sox, as they had the patience and coaching which allowed him to find himself. I am aware that Dombrowski was not the Sox GM at the time of the decision not to match the NYYankee bid for Miller. IF we had would Dombrowski have still made the deal for Kimbrell or Smith? I don't know, but I strongly suspect that one of those deals would not have been made. That said, Dombrowski has a poor track record for building bullpens. I have hope that Kelly has found himself and that Kimbrell's bad year was an anomaly. Too bad we didn't pull the trigger on Miller when we had the chance. Even Dombrowski couldn't f*** up that bullpen.
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Post by p23w on Oct 18, 2016 23:52:34 GMT -5
This whole postseason is like watching the Red Sox Graduates. on a related note, why didn't we go after Rich Hill a little bit harder last year? "We" tried. Dombrowski wanted shiny new toys,
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Post by p23w on Oct 18, 2016 17:25:55 GMT -5
Would anyone be super surprised if Erod was better than Sale within 2 seasons? I wouldn't trade him unless you're getting a Shelby Miller haul for him. I would be super surprised. Erod is nice, but Sale he ain't.
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Post by p23w on Oct 18, 2016 17:24:17 GMT -5
You know, it's a shame we couldn't build an uber bullpen. Signing Jansen or Chapman to be our closer would mean Kimbrel would be your 8th inning guy & I'm not sure he would/could do that (like Miller has). Again, Cleveland is showing a good/deep bullpen can do wonders in the playoffs. If by "we" you refer to Dave Dombrowski, then don't hold your breath. We could have outbid the NYYankees for Miller when we had the chance.
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Post by p23w on Oct 16, 2016 13:02:50 GMT -5
I wish Swihart was healthy enough either to play in the AL or Winter ball. I really think he needed to work on his defence. I believe we have seen the best of Leon and we are more like to see more end of season Leon than not. I don't know if he will be nearly ready but before the season is over hoping we see a Swihart-Vasquez pairing. This. After the Kalish fiasco, I want to see a healthy Swihart before I assign him a spot on the Red Sox roster.
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Post by p23w on Oct 16, 2016 12:58:39 GMT -5
I am going to the Wednesday, October 19, game between the Surprise Saguaros (Red Sox, Royals, Twins, Pirates, Rangers prospects) and the Scottsdale Scorpions (Yankees, Angels, Phillies, Mets prospects) at Scottsdale Stadium (6:35 p.m. start). I'll be sitting several rows up behind the first base dugout. Let me know if you are going. Seats are not reserved and 200 is a good crowd for most Fall League games, so you can sit at your favorite spot to watch a game. There are almost always many empty seats directly behind home plate where most of the scouts are sitting. Been there done that. Great way to check out emerging talent. Have a blast.
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Post by p23w on Oct 16, 2016 12:55:15 GMT -5
Add about 75 points of OBP to Encarnacion and you'd get Votto, who also has a swing made for Fenway. Add 3 more years and a couple million a year and it's not worth the difference. Also, Votto has put up these numbers in the NL, who we both can admit is the inferior league. Votto is on record as saying he would like to play in his home town (Toronto). Votto has been pitched around for years. Pretty difficult to pitch around him on the Blue Jay roster. Blue Jays are desperate for a middle of the order left handed bat. If Encarnacion signs elsewhere (and the Jays get a first round pick), will the new CBA permit the trading of a draft pick? Be careful what you wish for. Encarnacion is a decent fit for the Red Sox, but you could really open up a can of worms on the Votto front with that move.
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