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Post by p23w on Oct 16, 2016 10:11:20 GMT -5
Actually, Votto makes all the sense in the world.... for the Blue Jays.
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Post by p23w on Oct 16, 2016 10:07:55 GMT -5
Maddon vs. Francona? How about Roberts vs. Francona. That sounds better to moi.
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Post by p23w on Oct 15, 2016 19:20:01 GMT -5
Yeah, Encarnacion is three years older than Hanley was, and will probably command an extra year at similar AAV. All for a player who can't play defense, at one of the easiest defensive positions. They don't *need* offense. A one-year, tradeable $13M deal for Buchholz is a LOT less of an outlay than $100+M/4-5 years. Simply comparing AAV ignores the major issue with an EE contract: the downside years. Can they "afford" it? Sure, especially with Hanley and Panda coming off the books in years 2-3 of an EE deal, when his skill erosion is likely to make for a bad (and nearly untradeable) contract. But throwing away $40M just because you can doesn't make it a good idea. The Sox are in a (nearly, see Cubs) unique position of having such abundant, supreme young talent that they can remain highly competitive while shedding (substantial) salary. A short Buchholz deal is easily shed, for some useful return. The idea that they've had some bad contracts suggests, you know...not trying to accumulate more. Save the $. Extend the young players. Keep a large margin of "free" cash for Otani, Harper, or a trade salary dump (like a revived Grienke) that has real impact. I think this team needs to prioritize "need" over "want," and pick the best, most value-conscious route. They *need* SP depth. This year demonstrated that. If one believes the pitching will be 40 or so runs better next year (I do, if they keep Buchholz as the 6, and the rest pitch as reasonably expected), and Benintendi will improve LF production (and reduce runs allowed defensively) by 20-25, then their **run differential** remains unchanged. They *need* an outstanding (LH) 'pen arm. Hell, for $15M a year, sign Chapman for 4-5 years. They'll save $10M a year over EE, and they can trade Chapman much more easily, for better return. He also costs no draft pick, and is much younger. As much as I think EE will help in 2017, I think the risk of him being an albatross contract is just way too high. Use that $ on short deals, low-risk/high-reward volume, shoring up the bullpen with tradeable, high-quality arms, and/or extending the young guys. They're still going to have the best offense in the AL. Heck, sign Bautista if he'll do 2+1(vesting option). But stay away from the big-money, long deals on aging players. I don't mind the idea of Chapman but he's going to be the most sought after free agent on the market this winter. I wouldn't be surprised either if Chapman's contract was approaching the EE contract, and he's only a reliever. He's going to get way more than 15 million a year AAV wise. He's going to break the record easily for a closer by a wide margin. All the big fish will be after him between the Nationals, Cubs, Yankees, and Dodgers. I just don't see the problem with DH types as they age. Sure they won't have a position, but sluggers have shown to bring the bat into their late 30's. Numerous examples of this between Frank Thomas, Jim Thome, Ortiz, Beltran, A-Rod, Edgar Martinez. I would put EE in those class of hitters right now. He's arguably the best true slugger in the game when looking at the power and lack of strikeouts in his game. The Sox will be losing a lot of AAV by the time Otani (apparently won't be posted anytime soon as I learned), Harper, Machado become free agents. They're going to be losing the contracts of Rusney, Pablo, Porcello, Hanley, Kimbrel, and possibly Price too. That's something like 90+ million in AAV if Price doesn't opt out and 120+ million in AAV if Price does opt out. I'm all for starting pitching depth too, just not at 13.5 million like with Buchholz. That's way to much for a swingman option. Buchholz should be in fact be traded for either starting pitching depth or catching depth or both, especially in a depleted starting pitching market that offers nothing. Dollars to donuts, the Giants break the bank to sign Chapman in the off season.
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Post by p23w on Oct 13, 2016 10:13:25 GMT -5
Lots of good ideas and interesting speculation in this thread. Now that the front office has saved face by making the playoffs (and remained intact) they are somewhat under pressure to validate their moves from this year, going forward into next year. Personally I was very pleased (with one notable exception) of the late season performance of the bullpen. I was disappointed with the performance of the starting pitching both leading up to the playoffs and in the Cleveland series. That said, this team is an offensive juggernaut. I expect the loss of Ortiz will hurt some, but I expect some of that loss will be offset by both the return of Swihart and the Panda, and (dare I say) better seasons from Betts and AB. This is going to be fun. As of today I have no opinion regarding trades or free agent signings, there is always much more that goes into these decisions than meets the outsiders eye. One final observation, coming from a character counts perspective, whilst I was opposed to signing Chapman when he became available from Cincinnati, I very much liked the way he shut down the Giants after the Cubs rallied. I am very tempted to favor throwing money at Chapman. I just love the idea of lock down bullpens, perhaps even more than my character counts sensitivities.
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Post by p23w on Oct 10, 2016 12:46:22 GMT -5
Given Porcello's and Price's poor outings this October, there's been a lot of talk as to whether Price is a choke artist and how David Ortiz is the greatest clutch hitter in the history of the game. Seeing as how David Ortiz has a career line of .290/.403/.545/.947 in October over 365 ABs while David Price is 2-8, 1 save, and an ERA of 5.54 over 66.2 IP. Does it stand to reason that being clutch and choking exist? Personally, I don't believe in clutch. I believe that those who are "clutch" are just unfazed by the spotlight and are able to bring their full skill set to every pitch or at bat; however, this does lead me to believe that choking and shriveling under the spotlight is a very real thing. Your question begs for analysis beyond numbers. I don't have any answers but I do have distinct memories of incredible post season performances from the most unlikely sources, Don Larsen, Bobby Richardson, Jody Reed, Denny Doyle, Billy Hatcher, just to name a few. David Ortiz has one of the most notable post season records, and alongside of Madison Bumgarner in recent history. Based on these examples I would surmise that post season success is one part "hot hand" and two parts psychological profile. We can extrapolate the hot hand side of the equation from history leading up to the post season, but we have to keep in mind the 2007 Colorado Rockies and their 21 wins in 22 games leading up to their confrontation with the Ortiz Red Sox. Time off, I think the Rockies were idle for 5 days prior to meeting up with the Sox, which would go a long way to explaining the "sweep" put on them by the Boston ball club. With respect to Price, I strongly suspect his "unclutch" post season performances have been psychological to date. I strongly suspect that he would/will pitch closer to his regular season numbers if the Sox give him an early multiple run cushion. I don't believe he will need this each time he pitches in the post season, but I am hoping that one easy blow out win in the post season for Price will remove the "choke" monkey from his back and he will pitch to form afterward. Getting Price "right in the head" is what is required, a track record of one good game could be all that is needed. I agree with you that choking can be a real quantifiable factor in post season performance, but I also believe that it can be alleviated and even reversed under the right conditions.
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Post by p23w on Oct 10, 2016 11:52:47 GMT -5
Judging from your posting, you are captive of facist numerologists.They have given you three binders that contain all the information you might be tested on. You have a single day to study them. The tell you frankly that it will be difficult but by no means impossible to master all of the material in sufficient depth to pass all three tests. What do you do? A) Study all three subjects equally. B) Devote most of your time to Creation Science and kind of skim the other two, because if you don't pass Creation Science, you don't even get to take the others. D) Ask them all to close their eyes and bow our heads in prayer, then tip out the door as they do. Kneel before the God's of SAS and Sabr analysis. Extend your bad science within or without the relevant parameters of sample size, ignore the irrelevancy of post season statistics to regular season statistics and preach to us about climate change models that deny volcanic activity and solar cycles Your kind are the bane of baseball fandom. Pseudo intellectualism taken to a new level. I can understand your jones for believing your numbers but when you go beyond baseball with your snide comments comments you show your true colors. My apologies to those who read this, but this poster is just too arrogant for my sensitivities. I am a Red Sox fan, not a social commentator or numerological elitist.
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Post by p23w on Oct 8, 2016 13:39:31 GMT -5
The beauty of baseball is that the Red Sox season comes down to one game at a time. What makes this interesting to me is that the first "one game"at a time starter is our own born and bred Clay Buchholz. If the Red Sox are to continue in the post season it begins with this man. Once the subject of our highest expectations, more recently the subject of exasperation and contempt. I for one will never forget Clay's start in AA against a recently signed Roger Clemens (NYYankees). I was present, and the game was a gem. Whilst I forget the final outcome I do remember both pitchers going 7 innings and the score being tied at 1. Whereas this team traded away the likes of high end pitching talent like Curt Shilling, and allowed world class pitching talent sign with other teams (Clemens and Lester), to date they have kept Buccholz. I would dearly love for Buchholz to begin the reversal of Red Sox fortunes for the 2016 post season. As a collection of players this team is better than the 2016 Cleveland Indians. They need to prove this starting tomorrow, with Clay Buchholz on the mound. If it is not to be I will be greatly disappointed. Like most of us, I wanted something better for David Ortiz's last game. The time is now, to stand and deliver.
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Post by p23w on Oct 7, 2016 8:20:00 GMT -5
For me Kluber is a huge question mark. OTOH Price needs to be the pitcher that reverses his post season record to date. If Kluber leaves the ball up, I look for the middle of the order to do damage. If Price does likewise I see Napoli making him pay. Looking for a men on base or late inning appearance by Ziegler against Napoli, and a brief appearance by Miller against Ortiz in the late innings. If this is close it is an absolute must win for the Sox. I'd rather see a blow out game from the offense, but after last night I'm less optimistic about such an event. Meanwhile, Toronto embarrasses the Rangers in Texas.
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Post by p23w on Oct 6, 2016 22:35:02 GMT -5
Wow.
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Post by p23w on Oct 6, 2016 22:20:23 GMT -5
Xander has his head up his....
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Post by p23w on Oct 4, 2016 23:08:49 GMT -5
I love it. Don't care for either team don't care for Gibbons, despise Showalter. Britton was the best reliever in baseball in 2016 and he never got into his teams extra inning elimination game. Can't wait to read the pundits explanations.
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Post by p23w on Sept 28, 2016 21:39:13 GMT -5
Good night.
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Post by p23w on Sept 28, 2016 21:37:28 GMT -5
6 pitches... two outs.
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Post by p23w on Sept 28, 2016 21:36:01 GMT -5
3 pitches.... one out.
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Post by p23w on Sept 28, 2016 21:30:04 GMT -5
28 pitches... and no outs?
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Post by p23w on Sept 28, 2016 21:24:40 GMT -5
Kelly?
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Post by p23w on Sept 28, 2016 17:14:59 GMT -5
I'm going to tonights game, my first Red Sox game not at Fenway Park. My friends have advised that I DONT wear my Red Sox hat and jersey, out of fear of oppressive Yankee fans. That really doesn't bother me though. Should I be concerned at all? Been in one knock down drag out fight at YS. Had my car smeared with feces (had MA. tags). Depends on how you feel. Wear your gear at your own risk, the Bronx is still the Bronx.
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Post by p23w on Sept 25, 2016 19:00:45 GMT -5
It's a shame Joe Kelly gets no love. Some are shocked that he was allowed to continue into the last inning. The only thing that matters is that the manager has confidence in him. Go, Joe! Kelly dialed it up against Longoria. 3 pitches in triple digits. He would have K'd most hitters, but credit Longo for rifling a 100mph pitch to RF. Good piece of hitting.
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Post by p23w on Sept 24, 2016 7:30:38 GMT -5
The bullpen made Farrell look like an idiot all year; now they're making him look like a genius. There seem to be a couple of things at play here. (1) When lots of guys are pitching well, it's true: the manager looks good no matter who he puts in. (2) But even so, with this huge pen and all sorts of choices, Farrell is putting the most logical people in at particular points in the game, whereas earlier in the season, with a smaller pen, fewer choices, and presumably more defined roles, he was making strange choices of who to put in the game at particular times. (3) Which makes me wonder if it wasn't really health and fatigue issues (or at least, his perception of those issues) that caused Farrell to manage the pen the way he was earlier, rather than an inherently flawed decision making process. Maybe there were things going on with the pen that we don't and can't understand.There are things going on with the coaching staff and in the clubhouse that only those partaking in the process fully comprehend. Speculation by the baseball pundits and local media is skewed by the hyperbolic new cycle. Rather than be judgmental in the short term, it would behoove one to withhold "analysis" and criticism until the marathon season concludes. Criticism and analysis is fair game in the short term when it applies to the post season. I fall prey to the same temptations, then I remember, this is baseball, not politics, not religion, but a beautiful metaphor for life. The wonderment of which never ends.
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Post by p23w on Sept 23, 2016 18:20:09 GMT -5
And the swan song season dream continues....
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Post by p23w on Sept 22, 2016 20:38:16 GMT -5
Thanks Buck, for leaving your Lefty specialist in to face Hanley.
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Post by p23w on Sept 21, 2016 20:11:30 GMT -5
Way to go AB!
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Post by p23w on Sept 21, 2016 14:57:21 GMT -5
Going forward... just say nyet to Carlos Beltran and go for home field advantage in the playoffs. The road to the WS will likely go through Texas. Enjoyed seeing Ross flop at home plate while attempting to score on.... a Jon Lester double. When Ross can score from first on an extra base hit from Lester you know it's the Cubs year.
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Post by p23w on Sept 20, 2016 20:14:20 GMT -5
Showalter leaves his starter in for too long, love it.
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Post by p23w on Sept 20, 2016 17:23:51 GMT -5
yeah...it's too bad he went 1 for 12 in his only playoff appearance...just curious was that a negative WAR performance? Maybe. Just like Ted Williams going 5 for 30 without an extra-base hit in his only playoff appearance really showed what an unclutch stiff he was. You do realize that Ted was coming off an elbow fracture and not fully functional for his lone playoff appearance, right?
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