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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 20, 2024 12:01:33 GMT -5
Red Sox really couldn't have beaten 2/62? Whatever. Montgomery is probably going to the Mets or Yankees for 2/55 with a mutual option or something. I wouldn’t have wanted them to try to beat 2/62.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 20, 2024 11:23:43 GMT -5
Jeez, he transformed his body so much he grew two inches, that's some serious dedication
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 18, 2024 13:34:39 GMT -5
If I were shadow drafting here, I'd pretty comfortably go any of the next three college pitchers over Honeycutt. Also interesting to note this is a significant low water mark for Seaver King and Josh Hartle. Even in games he's been productive, I have not been in love with what I've seen from King.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 16, 2024 18:31:43 GMT -5
Nick Kurtz out 3-to-4 weeks. Given that he hasn’t really done a ton this year (feels like teams are pitching around him at all costs), he’s another potential faller.
Random, but Jac Caglianone’s defense is really good. Obviously just a very good athlete. I’m still a bit skeptical, but he’s seemingly improved on his contact issues to some degree, though Chris Cortez did make him look pretty foolish in one at bat yesterday. Granted, that came after he hit two homers, so….
If y’all like offense, picking up this A&M-Florida game on now and watching the Sunday game will be extremely your jam.
I continue to love Braden Montgomery.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 13, 2024 18:17:23 GMT -5
29 MLB GM’s: “Well, we’d need to evaluate the short and long term costs/benefits of this move before jumping to a decision” AJ Preller: “HEY GUYS YOU KNOW WHAT WOULD BE REALLY COOL???”
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 12, 2024 16:46:01 GMT -5
Everybody made fun of the tigers for that pick but the Rangers pick looks much worse. Who’s everybody? I didn’t see that from anyone, outside of Boston fans happy that Mayer fell but that’s different.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 12, 2024 9:17:39 GMT -5
Another bet I'd make if there were a line on it - against Judge making the hall of fame. Did you know: he has only 846 career hits? And is about to turn 32. No modern player has made it in with fewer than 2000. He actually has only 5 more career PAs than Devers. Having an MVP award isn't as much of an asset as I thought it'd be, either. 3+ MVP's, no Hall: Bonds, A-Rod (these are obviously not about talent). Pujols isn't yet eligible but will get in, Trout isn't done playing but will get in. 2 MVP's, no Hall: Juan Gonzalez, Dale Murphy, Roger Maris (I know his name obviously from the 61 homer year but honestly if you'd have had me guess his career stats, I would have been WAY off). Miguel Cabrera isn't eligible yet but will get it, Harper and Ohtani both still playing but should ultimately get in. 1 MVP, no Hall: Jim Konstanty, Al Rosen, Zoilo Versalles. Ichiro, Posey, Pedroia, and Braun are all not yet eligible, Ichiro is a mortal lock, Posey is an interesting case but the other two won't get in. Not going to compare Juan Gonzalez to Judge as a player because he retired when I was 9, but there is very very little chance Judge surpasses his counting stats so if Gonzalez isn't in with 2 MVPs, I doubt Judge has a shot.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 11, 2024 21:36:57 GMT -5
... Will he be gone by then, though? He is the biggest enigma in the draft, in my eyes. Obvious tools but hasn't shown that he's figured out the contact issues at all. he’s been somewhat better this year than last, hitting about 333 with an OPS over 1 and 26% K rate. Speed, defense, power and arm. He’s like a 6’3” 205 Ceddanne Rafaela. Someone will take the gamble. Someone will certainly fall in love with him, but I can also definitely see him sliding past 12 if teams don’t think he’ll make consistent contact.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 11, 2024 13:47:14 GMT -5
Watching UNC play Pittsburgh on a beautiful sunny day. Not many prospects or scouts (one old guy with a gun who just took a long break). CF Vance Honeycutt who will be gone before we pick is 2-3 with a long double to RCF and a K. Having a better offensive year than his sophomore season, but still the hit tool might lag behind the other 4. Runs very much like a deer. ... Will he be gone by then, though? He is the biggest enigma in the draft, in my eyes. Obvious tools but hasn't shown that he's figured out the contact issues at all.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 10, 2024 0:04:20 GMT -5
You can't just assume the ROY will go to the #1 prospect. Here are some randos who won it in the recent past:
2021: Jonathan India 2020: Kyle Lewis, Devin Williams 2016: Michael Fulmer 2013: Wil Myers 2011: Jeremy Hellickson, Craig Kimbrel* 2010: Neftali Feliz 2009: Andrew Bailey, Chris Coghlan
If these guys can win ROY, Rafaela can. Though it is admittedly a long shot.
*Yes, Kimbrel is a rando. All relief pitchers are by definition randos. (And also: geez, sportswriters, stop voting for relief pitchers as ROY.)
BA rated Jeremy Hellickson the 6th best prospect in baseball prior to 2011. He wasn’t a rando. Upon further review Wil Myers was a top 20 guy as well (and I do remember him carrying a ton of hype at the time)
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 9, 2024 23:43:44 GMT -5
You can't just assume the ROY will go to the #1 prospect. Here are some randos who won it in the recent past:
2021: Jonathan India 2020: Kyle Lewis, Devin Williams 2016: Michael Fulmer 2013: Wil Myers 2011: Jeremy Hellickson, Craig Kimbrel* 2010: Neftali Feliz 2009: Andrew Bailey, Chris Coghlan
If these guys can win ROY, Rafaela can. Though it is admittedly a long shot.
*Yes, Kimbrel is a rando. All relief pitchers are by definition randos. (And also: geez, sportswriters, stop voting for relief pitchers as ROY.)
This is fair, but just to add a little context. Preseason favorites for some of these races: - 2021 NL: Ke'Bryan Hayes, Sixo Sanchez, Ian Anderson - 2020 NL: Gavin Lux was the only one I could find - 2020 AL: Michael Kopech, Casey Mize - 2016 AL: Byron Buxton, Byung-ho Park (I had to look up who this was), Jose Berrios I couldn't find good odds for years prior. I add that to say this - I won't say Rafaela CAN'T do it, crazier things have certainly happened. But I think you'd agree a field of Jackson Holliday, Wyatt Langford, Evan Carter, and Nolan Schanuel (among others) is much stronger than the projected fields in some of the years these "randos" (I'd quibble on India being a rando, but I digress) won. But also my point was mostly that I simply wouldn't let something with such a slim chance of happening impact my decision on what to do with him if I thought it went against what's best for his developement or the development of the outfield as a whole. The Andrew Bailey trivia was a fun benefit of all this, too!
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 9, 2024 22:37:37 GMT -5
It's 2024, ROY will go to whoever leads in WAR Eh maybe, that’s happened 60% of the time in the last 5 years which is certainly a strong trend but it’s not definitive, and the voting beyond the winner certainly gets messy to where it’s not just a descending list by WAR.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 9, 2024 22:28:43 GMT -5
I'm more inclined to want to put the best option on the field from day one unless the Sox management is throwing in the towel which I don't believe is the case no matter what us armchair quarterbacks think. I don’t think you can make the argument that he is definitively the best option and that stance is completely ignorant of the context that there are four other outfield options (five if you count Yoshida sporadically playing left) that need to be considered.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 9, 2024 22:22:23 GMT -5
Obviously his odds right now aren't good but if his spring training stats held and he put up a ~110 wRC+ and won the CF gold glove he'd have to at least be in the conversation, right? Rafaela with a 110 wRC+ would be like a top 20-25 position player in baseball haha
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 9, 2024 22:19:49 GMT -5
How often is the actual rookie of the year the pre-season favorite ? I'm of the opposite view that a defensive minded shortstop or center fielder has a leg up to start. Casas last year had no shot as a first baseman. What are you talking about? If Casas had hit over the whole season the way he did from June on, he’d have won it. And award voting has gotten so skewed towards offensive production that the running joke is that it’s even seeped into the Gold Gloves. All of that aside, you have the number one prospect in baseball likely to play a significant chunk of the season and a guy in Evan Carter whose cup of coffee extrapolated across the entire season would’ve put him in the MVP conversation, let alone rookie of the year. You don’t force Rafaela up because of a draft pick incentive when he’s, at best, the sixth or seventh most likely guy (and that’s being REAL generous). Even if the dead favorite rarely wins it, which may or may not be true, I’m not going to do that digging.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 9, 2024 22:01:17 GMT -5
It’s a little more defensible when there are other good young options in the mix and he’s the most natural “wait a bit” candidate. It’s also not that long of a wait. Service time stuff does get a bit dicey but this one is reasonable imo. There's also the ROY draft pick factor to consider since he's top 100. I’m not really anticipating him factoring into the rookie of the year conversation a whole lot mostly because I have doubts that a defense-oriented guy would really be considered, but also due to the fact that there are three other guys ahead of him that are all pretty clearly more likely to compete for it in Holliday (whenever he’s promoted), Carter, and Langford. And there are others I could probably add to that list, too.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 9, 2024 21:47:25 GMT -5
Part of me says do we really want to be a team that plays the service time game but also part of me says they maybe should with rafaela. It’s a little more defensible when there are other good young options in the mix and he’s the most natural “wait a bit” candidate. It’s also not that long of a wait. Service time stuff does get a bit dicey but this one is reasonable imo.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 8, 2024 21:26:33 GMT -5
With the caveat that Texas A&M has had a pretty weak weekend schedule (though for the purposes of this discussion ASU’s offense is fine), Ryan Prager has been excellent for the Aggies so far this year.
Coming into tonight, he went 16.2 innings across 3 starts with 27 strikeouts against 8 hits, 3 walks, and no runs allowed.
Tonight again an admittedly putrid Rhode Island lineup - 7 IP, 1 H, 0 BB, 13 K’s. Just tough to do, regardless of competition.
Good size at 6’3”, 185. Makes the most of a true over the top delivery, sits 91-93 the fastball from the left side, but has largely pitched backwards and leaned on his slider, which sits at about 82-84. Throws both for a ton of strikes and hitters have a really tough time picking up on it. Hasn’t really messed with a third pitch much, but hasn’t really been challenged yet.
Was pretty well regarded as a freshman but missed last year with an injury, great to see him off to a good start and hopefully he can build on it entering conference play, though I do think he will need a third pitch. Not an elite guy by any means but certainly a top 10 round guy to keep an eye on.
I’ll probably post about A&M’s offense as a whole later on in the season because again the competition has been bad but man… they can rake.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 8, 2024 20:12:44 GMT -5
Jonathan Santucci vs. Josh Hartle tonight, I'm hoping to get home from the gym in time for the tail end of their starts but that'll be a really good one. Not a good night for either. Brecht goes 4IP 1H 0ER 3BB 9K in a rain-shortened outing. Yeah I tuned in for that inning and Santucci was missing everywhere, Wake is obviously a good offense but they didn’t seem all too fazed by anything he threw out there.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 8, 2024 13:33:15 GMT -5
I’ve long argued that the best players would actually make terrible coaches, so I don’t view it as a negative that Bailey was merely a solid professional.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 8, 2024 10:08:30 GMT -5
Jonathan Santucci vs. Josh Hartle tonight, I'm hoping to get home from the gym in time for the tail end of their starts but that'll be a really good one.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 7, 2024 13:54:44 GMT -5
Obviously, unless Travis Bazzana is still available. Oh my god. Do not make me dream on a Bazzana-Zanatello middle infield. Bazzanatello!!!
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 7, 2024 13:24:46 GMT -5
You are very clearly the one who is not seeing it here. Nobody is arguing that Cooper Criswell is a future ace, but you threw a tantrum over the fact that Breslow said a nice thing about a guy on the team he runs, as if he would do anything else. That does not preclude him from going out and signing another pitcher to jump Criswell in the rotation, it doesn't even preclude him from signing two! But to act as if he'd say anything but supporting the guy who is, as of now, currently in the mix for one of those spots is asinine. And when exactly is he going to go out and sign this extra pitcher or 2? All winter I heard don't worry, there is still a lot of time before opening day. Now there are 3 weeks before opening day. Last year at this time we had all the starting candidates they are considering now plus Sale, Paxton, and Kluber (yes, I know he was a bust but at least he was a good pitcher at one time). And their starting pitching last year was poor. How does anyone expect it to be any better this year? Whitlock has never pitched more than 80 innings in the big Leagues in a year. Wink has marginal stuff. Cooper Criswell? Seriously? His below 4.00 ERA was IN THE MINORS. He has had very 2 short stints in the majors and his ERA was well over 5 in each. I just don't see how you can be optimistic about the starting pitching at this point. Did you mean to respond to someone else, or are you just using my point to complain into the void? 1. I never said signing another pitcher was a “when” deal, or any sort of guarantee, only that he could and his comments don’t mean he won’t. 2. I never once said I was optimistic about the starting pitching, I never even gave a remote inclination that I was, so that’s entirely unrelated. 3. The whole “I was told this and that blah blah blah” BS entirely ignores what the FA process has been for every team and that this pitching staff looked generally fine before a significant injury to a previously durable starter. So the whole “snapshot in time” thing doesn’t really fly as a comparison. It’s hilarious how your post simultaneously managed to miss my point entirely AND in a sense prove my point about why absolutism in these circumstances is ridiculous.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 7, 2024 12:52:56 GMT -5
Deal checks out. You assume roughly 5/35 is what he would have gotten if things go relatively well. So you get 1 free agent year for $20m, which is likely but not certainly a discount, and the option for another for $21m in exchange for guaranteeing that 5/35. It also totally makes sense both based on his background and his position that Bello would be more interested in this deal than Casas. With how few players are hitting FA due to these type of extensions, $20 million will probably be a bargain for a FA starter in 2030 and 31. Yeah I mean you can point to the Giolito contract as a pretty good argument that it's not an insane amount to assume he'd be worth at that point.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 7, 2024 12:52:04 GMT -5
Another benefit of this deal (and any potential Casas deal) in my head is that, assuming you get the expected influx of cheap talent that is sitting at the top of the prospect rankings, having relatively moderate fixed costs allows you more flexibility when pursuing big fish in a year or two, because you're now less worried about high AAV extensions for your own guys in the near term. Key word in my head, because I'm still just kind of dipping my toes into the contract side of things.
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