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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 17, 2024 11:05:55 GMT -5
The thing I've told myself as someone who is floor-oriented is he doesn't actually have to be an above average offensive player to be an MLB player. This is a very very zoomed out comparison because there are obviously differences in their game, but if he's JBJ with a little less defense and a little more strikeouts but a lot more power, I'm personally not opposed to that as a mid-level outcome. That's obviously not the true floor, but there's also a galaxy worth of offensive upside beyond that. JBJ's wRC+ from 2016-2020: 118, 89, 90, 89, 118. Even with the strikeouts, with his power and a not-terrible approach I don't think it's outlandish to think that's an achievable five year stretch for Honeycutt. That’s a fair view but also not what I want to be hoping for from the 12th pick in the draft. Sure, that's not what you'd be hoping for, but you're taking that with the understanding that if there is a fix to be made there and he makes it, he has the physical ability to be a top 10 player in baseball, and that might be *underselling* it. College hitters with that level of raw talent don't make it to 12 every day, so while it comes with one very obvious and very deep red flag, I think the rest of the tools provide enough of a floor to where you can feel comfortable with the likelihood that he fixes that flaw, which is admittedly not very likely. If that's not your cup of tea that's fine, with the MLB Draft there's no right or wrong answer, but I at least think there's more to it than the hit tool, if that makes sense. Also I know this is EXTREMELY not how it works on multiple levels, but I'm doing this solely because I think it's fun as hell and I feel like people don't realize how impressive a lot of the seasons these collegiates are having right now are. If you took Vance Honeycutt's current numbers and extended that pace through 162 games, he'd have 71 home runs and 74 steals. Again that is not any kind of expectation, but it's just insane to put it in that framework and think about what he's doing, or what a guy like Charlie Condon is doing, or what Jac has done for two years in a row, even with lesser competition and metal bats.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 17, 2024 10:51:34 GMT -5
I'm out on anyone who swings and misses as much as Honeycutt does. Not at #12, at least. I legitimately can’t find a single college hitter who struck out this much as a junior and ended up being an above average offensive player in the MLB. The thing I've told myself as someone who is floor-oriented is he doesn't actually have to be an above average offensive player to be an MLB player. This is a very very zoomed out comparison because there are obviously differences in their game, but if he's JBJ with a little less defense and a little more strikeouts but a lot more power, I'm personally not opposed to that as a mid-level outcome. That's obviously not the true floor, but there's also a galaxy worth of offensive upside beyond that. JBJ's wRC+ from 2016-2020: 118, 89, 90, 89, 118. Even with the strikeouts, with his power and a not-terrible approach I don't think it's outlandish to think that's an achievable five year stretch for Honeycutt.
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Teel Sox
Jun 17, 2024 9:22:47 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 17, 2024 9:22:47 GMT -5
Does anyone with access to Teel’s batted ball data know if some of the EV stuff has normalized? Seems like he’s been hitting the ball pretty consistently hard.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 17, 2024 7:46:09 GMT -5
If only he weren't a second baseman... But he is... unless he can play OF I think you may have missed the point/joke
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 16, 2024 11:24:13 GMT -5
FWIW - Listened to Keith Law's eval on the Rates and Barrels podcast. He said in retrospect, last year was the best draft he'd seen in his 25 years of doing draft evals, and this year is shaping up to be the worst. Main takeaway is, if you're a team that likes to get a first rounder at below slot and then spread money downstream, this is probably not the year to do it because of the lack of depth after the first few guys, and because it's a really, really bad year for High School talent. He also said the pitching overall is very weak and really time to go after college position guys, esp in first 1-15 picks. It’s also, in theory, a draft class that really favors the position the Sox are at from a pure savings perspective. Assuming the top 9 college guys go before 12, there’s going to be a pretty large pool of the next wave of collegiate that are likely to be pretty bunched up in teams’ eyes. So the Sox are going to be at the top of that tier where they can leverage the rest of that pool and go with whoever will accept the lowest slot amount of the players they feel confident in, should they choose to go that route. I may have already talked about this before lol
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 16, 2024 0:29:01 GMT -5
I would not even remotely consider promoting Coffey this year outside of maybe a brief stint in AA to end the season. No reason at all to rush him.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 14, 2024 20:13:29 GMT -5
Christian Moore just hit a 117 mph homer to complete the cycle in the 6th inning of this game.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 14, 2024 16:50:45 GMT -5
If there’s actual hard data to prove that Sox prospects in the top 100 fare better… can you provide it?
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 14, 2024 16:49:30 GMT -5
I don't think a guy performing at a given level for 2.5 months (or in some of these cases, even less - or FAR less - than that) is a mistake at all, embarrassing or otherwise. Or whatever else is being posited here. The answer is that a projected value, ceiling, or floor is looking at a period of, depending who you talk to, the guy's career or at least his years of team control. Sometimes guys exceed all projections, for sure. But like, David Hamilton has had 2 good weeks. Houck is finally doing this in his 4th MLB season. Plus there's the context of when a report is from, etc. I don't want this to come off as defensive, I just think the underlying premise is nonsense, as is the "the Red Sox just identify special players!" or whatever it is conclusion. The Red Sox have also selected multiple felons, first round busts, guys who got 7-figure bonuses that scouts NPed in their first camp, etc. during my time with SoxProspects. It's a crapshoot and some teams are better at it. The Red Sox have generally done really well at it! Hence 4 rings, right? Either that or something the Red Sox thought 20 years ago (that I can't quite grasp from the post) still holds perfectly true 20ish years later. But long story short, the idea that the Red Sox are the only team that scouts makeup, which is literally what's being described here, is kind of hilarious. Agree with everything you said but what is “NPed”? Is that “non-prospect”?
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 14, 2024 16:23:53 GMT -5
~~aura~~
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 13, 2024 20:20:02 GMT -5
Man I love Coffey's swing, hope this is a real breakthrough for him.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 10, 2024 1:28:00 GMT -5
Will probably be the early early favorite for 1-1, him or LaViolette Ethan Holiday is also the top prep guy next year. I don’t know how you pass up on his 6’4 frame with those genes. Fair I should’ve said top college guy
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 9, 2024 23:06:30 GMT -5
Shane Sdao for A&M left the game today with an arm injury, just heard it’s likely TJ. Really sucks for him and A&M for a lot of reasons, but that kid was gonna be a real high level draft prospect next year and now he may not even pitch. Bummer. A&M is going to Omaha but is now down multiple high level contributors.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 9, 2024 22:59:10 GMT -5
And he added another one. That ball was damn near at his chin haha
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 9, 2024 22:57:42 GMT -5
Kids a player. Will be a very high pick next season. Will probably be the early early favorite for 1-1, him or LaViolette
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 8, 2024 21:05:45 GMT -5
Bonus round!
Other top 200 prospects (per MLB.com’s list) that I’m lower on in general:
- Malcolm Moore, C, Stanford
- Kellon Lindsey, SS, Hardee HS (FL) – Florida commit
- Josh Hartle, LHP, Wake Forest – unless there was some hidden injury stuff, extremely concerning for him to have taken the step back that he did.
- Carter Holton, LHP, Vanderbilt – I like the stuff, but not to the extent that his ranking indicates.
- Peyton Stovall, 2B (?), Arkansas – Think Enmanuel Valdez
- Jalin Flores, SS, Texas
- Cody Schrier, SS, UCLA
- Jonathan Vastine, SS, Vanderbilt
Guys in the top 200 or just guys that I’ve seen that I am a personal fan of and would want the Sox to draft:
- Jared Thomas, OF, Texas
- Ryan Prager, LHP, Texas A&M
- Chris Cortez, RHP, Texas A&M – he was electric again today, I really want this kid.
- Drew Beam, RHP, Tennessee
- Ethan Anderson, C, Virginia – All depends on if that “C” ends up holding true or not.
- John Spikerman, OF, Oklahoma – Another guy I really, really like.
- Duce Gourson, 2B, UCLA
- Brady Tygart, RHP, Arkansas
- Jacob Jenkins-Cowart, OF, East Carolina
- Justin Wilcoxen, C, East Carolina (senior sign)
- Ted Burton, 1B, Texas A&M (senior sign if he can go back to playing 2B as he did some pre-injury stuff)
- Jackson Appel, C, Texas A&M – a senior but not someone I like just as a senior sign.
- Ty Evans, OF, Florida
- Kyle DeBarge, SS, Louisiana
- JP Langevin, RHP, Louisiana
- Gavin Casas, 1B, South Carolina – For the vibes and the Triston extension
- Lebarron Johnson, RHP, Texas
- Austin Overn, OF, USC
- Lyle Miller-Green, OF, Austin Peay (senior sign)
- David Mershon, IF, Mississippi State (I think he’s eligible?)
- Connor Hujsak, OF, Mississippi State (senior sign)
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 8, 2024 21:05:08 GMT -5
Given where we’re at in the college season I don’t think I’m going to be moving too much on many prospects in this class. And given that my schedule is pretty hectic and I’ll be on vacation all draft week, I figured I may as well throw out my loose “draft board” for the year. I’m obviously no scout, but I do like putting my thoughts down for posterity (last year’s board here: forum.soxprospects.com/thread/6438/2023-mlb-draft?page=30). College guys are almost always guys I’ve watched live, if not watched a decent amount of, whereas high school guys are profiles I gravitate towards. To reiterate something from last year – I really value floor in the first round, and I’ve explained this in more depth before, but the Cliffnotes version is that the MLB Draft is such a crapshoot that I think getting a guy that can simply play at the major league level is a huge win, and typically going floor allows for savings to allocate for ceiling plays later on. With that said, my tiers: Almost certainly will not fall, but a guy can dream (for what it’s worth Teel topped this tier last year): 1. JJ Wetherholt, MIF, West Virginia – I doubt he falls for sure, but he seems to be settling in near the bottom of that top tier of college bats, so who knows if things get wonky with high school risers or slot cutting deals. Given the position questions and the injury taking some of his year, it wouldn’t be the most surprising thing in the world. That being said, I don’t care what position he plays, because the guy is simply going to hit. 2. Hagen Smith, LHP, Arkansas – Again I can’t see him falling, but pitching is weird. I don’t really think there’s a whole lot that needs to be said here, as it only takes an inning or so of watching him to realize just how premier the stuff is. College players that represent a good mix of ceiling and floor: 1. Braden Montgomery, OF, Texas A&M – He was originally going to be #2 in the above tier, but with the injury, who knows. Injury aside, I think the upside would still make this a fantastic pick at this spot, and I still expect him to go top 10 when it’s all said and done. The athleticism and the power potential, especially with his bat speed when that’s a metric that’s entering the mainstream, will be too enticing. I do think he’s more or less locked into a corner outfield spot, though. 2. Trey Yesavage, RHP, East Carolina – When I saw him pitch last year in Charlottesville, I was extremely impressed and fully expected his development into one of the best pitchers in college baseball, though I ultimately was on record as saying I thought he fit the mold of a late first round limited projection type. With the slight uptick in velocity and development of his splitter, though, I think he’d be a great pick at this spot. I still do think the lack of projection limits his upside, but I feel very good about him being a major league starter and think he could be a solid No. 3. 3. James Tibbs, OF, Florida State – He may very well be a left fielder, but I just feel so confident that this dude will rake that I don’t want to be the team to miss out on it if all of the above options gone. His swing is everything I love, compact with controlled violence. I also love that we’re talking about an elite corner outfield bat with a great approach – more walks than strikeouts is so 2007, he almost has more home runs than strikeouts. I feel like he’d be a decent amount under slot, and I think given how the draft is likely to shake out this is whole I’ll be calling for when the pick rolls around. 4. Vance Honeycutt, OF, North Carolina – I can’t quit this dude! Actually I was waffling about where I stood on him after my post yesterday about how I may be out on him, and that’s what inspired me to write this. I’m firmly in. I get that the swing and the miss stuff is a very, very real concern but he does everything else SO well. I have the UNC-WVU game on right now and in this one game alone he’s homered, had the WVU coach call him the fastest man in the world during his in-game interview (3.63 home to first), and hose a kid at first for a double play. In 5 innings!! I believe in aura, and I think he has it. I also think that he can fail to fully fix the swing and still be a full time player with how good the defense should be. Also wow he just took one of the worst swings I’ve ever seen… oh well, in for a penny in for a pound. 5. Jurrangelo Cijntje, Pitcher, Mississippi State – Aura!! This is partly motivated by me simply wanting to see how his development arc goes, but I both think the switch pitching thing can work long-term in strategic spurts while also thinking he’s good enough to have intriguing traits as a righty alone. I see two legitimate plus pitches from the right hand side and just enough control to think that he can start. I’m not going to pound the table for him to be the pick here no matter what, but I think me saying that I’d prefer him to Brecht might be a hot take. Slot neutral or overslot high schoolers (won’t have much to say on them, it’s all pretty straightforward and not a ton of hot takes here): 1. Bryce Rainier, SS, Harvard-Westlake HS (CA) – Texas commit 2. Cam Caminiti, LHP, Saguaro HS (AZ) – LSU commit 3. Konnor Griffin, SS, Jackson Prep (MS) – LSU commit College guys who’d represent real “cut a deal” type savings: 1. Carson Benge, OF, Oklahoma State – I like that he’s good at a little bit of everything, without a ton of obvious holes in his game. I feel like he’s a lesser version of Tibbs, in that you know you’re going to get a good hitter, just falling quite short of him in terms of how loud the offensive tools are. This might also be too close to his actual range for it to be a true cutting of a deal, but I think there are enough college players in a tier above him to where it counts. 2. Ryan Johnson, RHP, Dallas Baptist – I would be terrified every time he stepped onto the mound that he’d get hurt, because his delivery is so wackadoodle and violent. But man, multiple plus pitches with control? I am comfortable knowing that the risk could send him to a bullpen role. 3. Christian Moore, 2B, Tennessee – He’s been discussed a decent amount on this board already recently so I will just point out that the type of track record he has in the SEC is not very common, and I’m more willing to look at what the guy can do in this case as opposed to what we THINK he may not be able to do. 4. Jonathan Santucci, LHP, Duke – I’m still willing to buy into the fact that his development has been hampered by his injuries, and I am interested enough in the pitch mix and the fastball traits from the left side. Mikey Romero “++ slot savings” high schoolers: 1. Levi Sterling, RHP, Notre Dame HS (CA) – Texas commit 2. Dasan Hill, LHP, Grapevine HS (TX) – Dallas Baptist commit 3. JD Dix, SS, Whitefish Bay (WI) – Wake Forest commit Guys in that range I’m more or less out on (ranking here is by how “okay with it” I’d be should he be the pick): 1. Cam Smith, 3B, Florida State – In theory he should fit everything I like (good hit tool, good defense, production at a high level of competition), but there’s a weird thing with his swing path that bothers me and gives me pause long-term. Still, that’s a pretty niche thing, so that’s why he’s at the top of this list. 2. Seaver King, OF (?), Wake Forest – I really just don’t like the approach here and think that those concerns plus his size will make it difficult for him to impact the ball at the next level. 3. Dakota Jordan, OF, Mississippi State – Wayyyy too much swing and miss in the profile to where I’m a little shocked he’s considered a first round prospect.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 8, 2024 17:05:54 GMT -5
I’m not going to get into specifics but I heard from some people in the program that basically the worst case is confirmed (maybe that’s been reported by now, it was too hot to post when I got the text a couple hours ago). No idea the timeline but just a terrible break for a great human. The season ticket holders in front of us were chatting with him before that first inning and he was all smiles, he’s one of the best kids we’ve had here.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 8, 2024 14:49:05 GMT -5
So it seems Braden Montgomery may have broken his leg on a play at the plate against Oregon. Had to be helped off the field while wearing some sort of cast. Yep, I’m sitting right behind the A&M on deck circle and they called for the air cast immediately, one of those things where you know right away. Pretty sad stuff. If they have a replay of that whole sequence, go look at how dumb the call was to send him in the first place.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 8, 2024 14:47:39 GMT -5
I’d just like to say I’m thinking about writing my early big board tonight and I was already really high on him before this so nobody go calling me prisoner of the moment!!
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 8, 2024 8:05:25 GMT -5
really silly comparison aside as much as I love warm weather EnManny right now he absolutely has not shown he can hit in the show, his career OBP is .270 Fair - I meant (but didn't correctly write) that he had proved he could hit enough in pro baseball to get to the show, but I was really comparing the butcher D botching routine plays. Valdez isn't a LT fit in bigs if he can't make routine plays. In fairness, Moore could play OF. He is of avg speed. So there may be another route. I would draft him only if I thought he could be a good OF. I would assume he isn't good enough as an infield defender to play 2B, so would just evaluate his propects in the grass + at the plate. Why are you just assuming he isn’t a good enough infield defender to play second? That makes no sense. If you’ve watched him a lot there and you don’t think he’s good then that ones thing but that clearly doesn’t seem to be the case so it’s ridiculous that you’d just make that assumption.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 7, 2024 21:51:32 GMT -5
Very few prospects I’ve wanted to believe in as much as Vance Honeycutt but man…. Back to striking out an insane amount. I think this will wind up a hot take but I’d still probably lean him over Seaver King but I may be out on both.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 7, 2024 21:48:07 GMT -5
Kid's a hitter. I get what people are saying about position, but I couldn't blame the Sox if they just really, really liked the bat and figured they'll find a position for him later. They find one for Enmanuel Valdez yet? He's already shown he can hit in the show and botch routine plays at 2B. Let's definitely add another! What does that have to do with anything? Moore would be a much better prospect than Valdez on both sides of the ball, this is a dumb non sequitur.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 7, 2024 18:29:54 GMT -5
it’s just too dang bad he plays second base..
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 7, 2024 13:43:25 GMT -5
Regarding Anthony remaining at #1 - as Chris and others have pointed out many times, this isn’t a power ranking. If it were, Teel would be #1 for sure. But the last month of baseball hasn’t changed the notion that Roman Anthony’s ceiling is higher (imo considerably so) than the other two and is still productive at a level where he is extremely age advanced. It’s a very tight top 3 and you can certainly make a case for all of them and hell I’d even probably have Mayer #1, but I do understand why it’s been static at the top.
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