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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 7, 2024 10:59:17 GMT -5
A couple back end of the 60 updates that were noteworthy to me: Freili Encarnacion jumping into the rankings was a pleasant surprise, as was Jeremy Wu-Yelland, although the latter I was definitely a little more surprised by just because of how his last couple seasons have gone.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 6, 2024 19:50:47 GMT -5
People can feel how they feel about a guy who may be a second baseman in the first round, but let’s be realistic. Outside of Yesavage, how many other guys in this mock are going after 12 that would be clearly better picks, especially when you consider likely slot considerations? Like I’d certainly want Yesavage, but they also seem pretty well positioned to pick and choose from that huge tier of college bats that they both like and can save some money on.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 6, 2024 12:35:47 GMT -5
I wrote what literally may have been 2000 words on my thoughts from the College Station regional, and when I hit post, it gave me an error message, and it was all gone... That is crushing. No chance I'm going to do that again, but if there's a player from Grambling, Texas, Louisiana, or Texas A&M that anyone is ever curious about, they can feel free to ask and I'll share my thoughts individually (I’ll also gladly expand on any of the players I mention below). I don't have the energy to write up 25 or so players again... A couple highlights: - Kyle DeBarge is very Pedey-esque (in a general sense, not going to set those expectations specifically) and would be a really fun pick in like the fourth. - Braden Montgomery is every bit the top 10 pick he's billed to be and would have a top 5 outfield arm from day one. Should he fall by some miracle, I will throw a table over for him to be the pick. - I will pound the table for Ryan Prager the same way I did for Connelly Early last year (tons of good starter qualities, just needs some more fastball velo - dude threw an immaculate inning!!) - Kimble Schuessler is a real sleeper for me in this draft if he can catch at all (TBD). - Chris Cortez is a guy I will be way higher on than anyone, and wouldn't hate him under slot in the second round (100 mph with good IVB, a truly unhittable slider when he's on, but terrible control and lack of a true third pitch the obvious risks.). The highs are so high that they are worth that level of investment to me. I didn't catch quite as much A&M, this season - do you have any concerns about Braden Montgomery swing and miss, especially with regards to off speed stuff? I don't know about specific pitch types, but I do think the swing and miss is somewhat of a concern to monitor. I was at the point with him a month and a half ago where I thought he had a real case for 1-1, but with some of the struggles he's had in May, I came into this Regional thinking that he may have a chance to slip to 12 if he keeps playing the way he had been. He righted the ship in a major way this past weekend, but I do think it's still something to keep in mind. I don't think it's a swing question as much as it is an approach question, as he can have bouts of being really chase-happy. It seems as if he's predetermining a lot, and while it's great that he's a super cerebral kid, that feels like it can cut both ways as he does seem to be in his own head from time to time. I don't think it's something that can't be fixed, and I don't think it brings the whole profile down, but I could see him being a little streakier of a hitter than you'd like because of it. It's also worth noting that he does switch hit but may end up being a full time lefty, because while the right-handed swing has improved and he's not awful on that end, there's a pretty substantial gap between the two and teams will bring it lefties in leverage situations just to force him over to the right side.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 6, 2024 10:57:47 GMT -5
Lugo is getting interesting, he becomes a lot more interesting in my eyes if he can play a passable RF. Would be nice to have an in house replacement for O'Neill and/or refsnyder in the next few seasons. Maybe I'm reading his splits wrong but it looks like he has reverse splits, which is interesting. Has done much better against RHP, which is not a dealbreaker but definitely makes it less convenient for what I think would be his ideal role to dream on as that 4th OF/platoon with Abreu.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 6, 2024 8:19:05 GMT -5
I wrote what literally may have been 2000 words on my thoughts from the College Station regional, and when I hit post, it gave me an error message, and it was all gone... That is crushing. No chance I'm going to do that again, but if there's a player from Grambling, Texas, Louisiana, or Texas A&M that anyone is ever curious about, they can feel free to ask and I'll share my thoughts individually (I’ll also gladly expand on any of the players I mention below). I don't have the energy to write up 25 or so players again... A couple highlights: - Kyle DeBarge is very Pedey-esque (in a general sense, not going to set those expectations specifically) and would be a really fun pick in like the fourth. - Braden Montgomery is every bit the top 10 pick he's billed to be and would have a top 5 outfield arm from day one. Should he fall by some miracle, I will throw a table over for him to be the pick. - I will pound the table for Ryan Prager the same way I did for Connelly Early last year (tons of good starter qualities, just needs some more fastball velo - dude threw an immaculate inning!!) - Kimble Schuessler is a real sleeper for me in this draft if he can catch at all (TBD). - Chris Cortez is a guy I will be way higher on than anyone, and wouldn't hate him under slot in the second round (100 mph with good IVB, a truly unhittable slider when he's on, but terrible control and lack of a true third pitch the obvious risks.). The highs are so high that they are worth that level of investment to me. That sucks, but thanks for the clifnotes version of your "Hamlet". Eh, my fault for not writing the original text in a Word doc or something. Oh well, hopefully the Sox take four guys I've seen in person again so I can share some more!
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 5, 2024 23:44:14 GMT -5
I wrote what literally may have been 2000 words on my thoughts from the College Station regional, and when I hit post, it gave me an error message, and it was all gone... That is crushing. No chance I'm going to do that again, but if there's a player from Grambling, Texas, Louisiana, or Texas A&M that anyone is ever curious about, they can feel free to ask and I'll share my thoughts individually (I’ll also gladly expand on any of the players I mention below). I don't have the energy to write up 25 or so players again...
A couple highlights: - Kyle DeBarge is very Pedey-esque (in a general sense, not going to set those expectations specifically) and would be a really fun pick in like the fourth. - Braden Montgomery is every bit the top 10 pick he's billed to be and would have a top 5 outfield arm from day one. Should he fall by some miracle, I will throw a table over for him to be the pick. - I will pound the table for Ryan Prager the same way I did for Connelly Early last year (tons of good starter qualities, just needs some more fastball velo - dude threw an immaculate inning!!) - Kimble Schuessler is a real sleeper for me in this draft if he can catch at all (TBD). - Chris Cortez is a guy I will be way higher on than anyone, and wouldn't hate him under slot in the second round (100 mph with good IVB, a truly unhittable slider when he's on, but terrible control and lack of a true third pitch the obvious risks.). The highs are so high that they are worth that level of investment to me.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 5, 2024 18:16:42 GMT -5
It's not a cliche, it's just common sense. Using Kyle Teel as an example kind of goes against your point, because catcher feels like much less of a need now than it did when he was drafted. So even if a draft pick's development time is lessened, it's still a great enough period of time where your needs can change drastically. Is it that cut and dry though? I mean, if it were there wouldn't be such a thing as a value pick, would there? Seems like it's more "best draft possible" than "best player available" for baseball. BPA is used specifically in contrast with drafting a position of need, not to describe the strategy for every single draft pick, at least that’s the way I view it.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 5, 2024 17:26:15 GMT -5
I didn’t realize they used metal bats in the complex leagues
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 5, 2024 14:34:49 GMT -5
This is a weirdly strong take for taking a pitcher over a hitter who grades equally when all of the historical data suggests hitters are better bets in the draft. I understand the "don't draft for need" cliche, but this seems to be one of those rare times where if something close to BPA fits your need, you do it. The Sox system is quite paradoxical. Overall, they are regarded quite well. But overwhelmingly, their top talent does not include near-to-MLB starters. College arms (and players, overall) are more polished today and seem to be capable of climbing the ranks faster than what has been the historic norm. Teel is approx 1 year removed from his draft-day and is clearly ready for AAA. This is beginning to seem more like a norm than an exception when dealing with the top tier of college talent. Whoever they get at 12 should be of a similar caliber. Yesavage, Hagen Smith, etc. could realistically be part of the 2026 rotation. With the club quite literally having every offensive position covered for the next 5+ years, I would be extremely frustrated to see them draft another bat if a similarly rated college starter is available at 12. It's not a cliche, it's just common sense. Using Kyle Teel as an example kind of goes against your point, because catcher feels like much less of a need now than it did when he was drafted. So even if a draft pick's development time is lessened, it's still a great enough period of time where your needs can change drastically.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 5, 2024 12:05:15 GMT -5
Pre-2023 Bleis was consensus top 100 (88 BA, 93 MLB, 67 BP). Fangraphs actually still has him at 78 and Law had him 88 entering 2024. If you look at some of the guys on the back end of MLB's list, its kind of befuddling that Bleis hasn't been able to recoup his top 100 status, though I wouldn't be shocked if he's back in the mix at the time of the next update. How exactly is it befuddling? He's been hitting well for like a month.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 5, 2024 8:33:19 GMT -5
Also being overlooked in the Christian Moore discussion is if that's being considered his absolute ceiling, he'd almost certainly be below slow, and potentially well below. So yeah if you wanna throw a fit over a guy who may just be a bat-first second baseman you can choose to do so, but the flip side of that pick may be high school pitchers in the next two rounds as a result.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 5, 2024 8:27:28 GMT -5
Feels like people are looking a lot at the position value with Christian Moore and not the fact that he has a 3 year track record of hitting in the SEC and slashed .378/.449/.780 with 29 homers this year. Even if he's just a second baseman, there's a very real chance his bat will play anywhere! There's also enough precedent within this very organization (Duran, Mookie, Campbell) to think he may have a shot at playing the outfield.
I'm not saying I want him to be the pick, but this doesn't feel like the positional value battle to fight, especially with some of these awful arguments being made about Romero.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 3, 2024 19:21:32 GMT -5
Tin foil hat time - Chris and Mike paid OP to start this thread so that people would be reminded of the importance of prospects, thus establishing a greater dependence on SP.
I mean, is it just a coincidence that this post coincided with the start of the donation drive?
Let’s pull the wool from over our eyes, people.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 3, 2024 14:54:54 GMT -5
Heading into 2011, the Kansas City Royals had a farm system that was legitimately debated as the best of all time. With the benefit of hindsight, we see all sorts of rookie ball and deep sleeper performers buried on their rankings: Salvador Perez, Yordano Ventura, Will Smith, Greg Holland Here’s all of the 3 fWAR seasons their top 10 (John Sickels) produced: (1) 3B Mike Moustakas (3.2 in 2012, 3.8 in 2015) (2) 1B Eric Hosmer (3.1 in 2013, 3.5 in 2015, 3.7 in 2017) (3) C Wil Myers (3.4 in 2016) (4) LHP Danny Duffy (3.6 in 2017) (5) LHP Mike Montgomery - none, 541 career IP (6) LHP John Lamb - none, 129.2 career IP (7) RHP Jake Odorizzi (4.3 in 2019) (8) RHP Jeremy Jeffress - none, 424.1 career IP (9) LHP Chris Dwyer - none, 3 career IP (10) OF Brett Eibner - none, 244 career PA OP isn’t saying young players aren’t necessary. They’re saying if the extent of the plan is to wait for our top three prospects to turn into perennial all stars, it’s not a great plan. I agree with OP. Arguably the best farm system of all time doesn’t win a title without acquiring a front line starter for each of the two World Series appearances they made. We have very different perspectives on what the OP meant then. Especially if you read their follow up comment, this seems pretty clearly not it to me.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 3, 2024 14:31:49 GMT -5
But think about what you are saying analytically. Why does it matter if those multiple 3+ win players are pre-arb or vet minimum? What's the difference short of an AAV variation that shouldn't matter to a team that is "going for it". Especially one with the Sox resources. Something that's always been doesn't mean it's always required. THAT demands proof that it could NOT happen any other way. It's not hard to look at recent champions (or contenders) and theoretically "replace" their pre-Arb stars with veteran contributors throughout the league making very little (comparatively) money. Significantly more unlikely, sure. But not impossible. Am I missing something obvious here? Is there an abundance of 3+ win players making the vet minimum? This comment seems bananas. It is VERY hard to theoretically do that lol
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 3, 2024 10:21:41 GMT -5
I know this is a blasphemous thing to say around here, and I am definitely not saying the outcomes will be the same... But aspects of Campbell's draft position, player profile and low-minors breakout remind me of Mookie's breakout a little over a decade ago. Both were drafted in similar areas of the draft with versatility and contact being their primary strengths. Both quickly flashed more power than expected early on in their milb careers. If Campbell's bat speed and power gains are legit, which they seem to be, he immediately becomes a fairly high-floor prospect with exciting upside. I think the two very key differences here are that Campbell has sacrificed some of that contact ability for his gains in power output so far, and he also doesn’t have a definitive defensive home, though now that I think about it I don’t remember if people saw Mookie becoming the defender he did, either. Either way, this feels much more like just a regular prospect breakout than Mookie 2.0 to me.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 3, 2024 7:48:56 GMT -5
The Tigers optioned 2020 #1 pick Spencer Torkelson to AAA after yesterday’s game. IIRC Torkelson vs Casas as best 1B prospect was a real thing as one point? I don’t think it was ever really a thing because Torkelson was the #1 prospect in baseball. The Tigers aggression promoting their prospects has generally not gone so well. He was the #1 prospect in baseball? I know he was obviously the first pick but I don’t remember the prospect part.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 2, 2024 23:56:31 GMT -5
35 hours of work later, regional is done. Thoughts may not come for a few days as it’s busy season at work, but there will be plenty. Buy Chris Cortez stock.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 2, 2024 8:39:57 GMT -5
Vanderbilt and Wake out in the first two regional days. Not even the biggest stunner, as host Arizona was the first team to go down in its regional. I don’t mean this in a snarky way but there were a solid contingent of people who weren’t *that* surprised by that (questionable resume for a host, and had already lost to DBU/lost 2 of 3 to GCU this year), though yeah that was certainly one of the biggest storylines to be sure.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 2, 2024 1:23:35 GMT -5
I don’t know if anyone else is like this, but for me there’s like a bell curve of excitement for minor league counting stats. Like if I see a team had two or three stolen bases I’m thinking okay great some steals that’s cool, but if they have like 7 or 8 like the Salem game tonight I instantly assume it’s because the other team sucks at catching runners lol
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 1, 2024 11:05:50 GMT -5
We’ve got a big one in College Station too as it’s Texas A&M-Texas, though elimination isn’t on the line. 8pm central on the big ESPN! As an added bonus if they cut to the booth you’ll even see me, last night they got a shot of us eating ice cream lol
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 1, 2024 7:58:55 GMT -5
If the Sox do wind up taking a bat in the first round, I think that will increase the interest in looking at college pitching shortly after that. While I was enjoying the Sox knocking Grayson Rodriguez around last night, I decided to look at Law's and Joe Doyle's top prospects list for arms. Keith had 13 college pitchers in his top 100 and Joe had 16. I thought I would try to put that together here for possible second and third round picks. Mike always has a great draft preview here. Maybe this will help start the process. I'll write the player followed be giving Law's and Doyle's (future stars series) rankings. I am adding the mlb.com rankings that vermont was kind enough to give. Payton Tolle TCU 44 41 86 Jonathan Santucci Duke 46 34 34 Ben Hess AL 54 58 45 Luke Holman LSU 60 49 48 Gage Jump LSU 61 106 60 Bryce Cunningham Vandy 62 59 44 Josh Hartle Wake 66 92 62 Carter Holton Vandy 74 52 61 Drew Beam TN 76 48 63 Ryan Johnson Dallas B 77 40 43 Sam Stuhr U of Prt 89 199 183 Michael Massey Duke 90 80 107 Matt Ager UCSB 93 164 106 These 6 are only in Joe Doyle's top 100 Jurrangelo Cijntje MSST 44 31 (He was 15 for Keith) Ryan Prager A+M 69 59 Ryan Forcucci UCSD 71 85 Aiden May ORST 75 82 Gage Ziehl Miami 85 88 Thatcher Hurd LSU 99 112 Only listed in mlb's top 100 Tristan Smith Clemson 68 Tyson Neighbors K ST 78 Kal Stephen MSST 87 Daniel Eagan Presby 89 For the people who watch college, please feel free to comment on this group (I'm looking at you thegoodthebadthesox). I spaced it better when it was written. Maybe a mod can help make it more readable? I need to make a correction. The number of players in the top 100 I listed for Keith and Joe excluded those who would likely go in the first round. Keith had 5 more college arms going in the first including Cijntje at 15. I don't have a BA subscription to add their rankings. If a mod would like to do that I think it would be a nice addition. I've been out of the country for 5 weeks but unless they've taken big steps back, the names that stick out to me here are Holman, Beam, Hartle, Ager, Hess, and Neighbors (RP). Also like prep Doughty, who Kiley mentioned (although what's up with Kiley comping mid-1st round kids to Tatis Jr and Seager?). Wouldn't mind seeing any of those in the 2nd or 3rd round. Should be a fun few days. Hartle has regressed way too much with what was already a somewhat low ceiling profile for my taste, so of that list he’s one guy I’m way out on. I haven’t watched him since the Duke game, though. Ager has had a weird season too, but if they win their regional and A&M does as well I’ll see him in person next weekend.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 30, 2024 11:08:07 GMT -5
Kristian Campbell is currently the South Atlantic League leader in OPS and wRC+ after going 2-2 with a double and a walk. Your favorite prospect’s favorite prospect. What's crazy about the Campbell thing, and I think I've said this before, is that when SP was doing a pod with I believe Callis on the draft class, Campbell was the only one Callis was more or less negative on, I believe saying that he didn't really see it with him. I know he was more of a contact-over-power profile in college, and obviously no one scout is perfect, but it still is a pretty wild turnaround. The K% is something I'd still like to see come down quite a bit, especially because that leg kick terrifies me, but I was watching some old video and he's had some version of that for quite a while now so I will trust the natural contact skills to come into play and for that to level out in the long run.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 30, 2024 10:56:37 GMT -5
Take a closer look at Crawford, the signs have been there all along. His rookie year, for example, was a mix of good and bad but 5 quality starts mixed in is impressive and gives a major clue to his ceiling (to me, solid #3) which has value. Duran's Salem (when it was A+) showed what he was capable of. He was spraying line drives all over the field. Coupled with his speed, that's a good thing. The only question was defense and he was decent the last part of last year. The Braves don't just sign young superstars. They just extended Chris Sale. I was also calling for signing Houck and Wong. Casas I wanted but didn't think he'd sign. Abreau and Grissom I thought should wait until this off season. That's not a 20/20 view. stick your hindsight comment where the sun don't shine. Okay, you still don't seem to get it, so I will try one last time. The question is never whether or not he is a good pitcher, or had a ceiling. The debate over extending him is whether it's worth tacking on extra year's to a starting pitcher, the most volatile position in the game, who is going to be relatively inexpensive through his age 32 season. With Duran, you can talk about what he did in Salem in **2019** all you want, but the player he was from 2021-2022 was completely different, even within that stretch, and there was legitimate reason for concern that he wasn't going to work as a full-time outfielder. Prior to this season, he had almost an identical number of PA's at the MLB level in which he was a bad player as he did a good player. I know you love to crap on BABIP as if you're the scouting eye's gift to baseball, but given those two things, when there is data that suggests regression is not only possible but likely barring an outlier level talent, it's not a good process to extend that player when, like Crawford, he's cost-controlled into his early 30's. On the flip side, if you want to make a case for extending a guy like Rafaela, it's because you know there is a baseline floor that you're going to be getting out of them, and that the extension will carry a player through his prime and into FA at an age where you would still be comfortable re-signing him to a long-term deal. "The Braves don't just sign young superstars. They just extended Chris Sale." I mean, give me a break, what an eye roll inducing comment. They extended Sale for two years, that's not a Braves-specific thing, that's just baseball business. I'm glad that in whatever reality you live in, you were right on the money with your calls for extensions. Truly happy for you, but if you don't think you've made use of hindsight in an attempt to make yourself look like you know more than you do (you want to take about your takes on Rafaela's hitting? Because I'd sure love to, those were a lock to age like milk), then I'm just not sure there's any getting through to you.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 30, 2024 10:04:41 GMT -5
Lots of Texas and Texas A&M guys on there that I'll be seeing this weekend but as I already have seen multiple games of pretty much every player on that roster (and 30+ games of the A&M guys), I was excited to see Louisiana's SS Kyle DeBarge ranked in the top 100. He has a really fun profile and I'll be interested to see how it plays on this stage.
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