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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 28, 2024 23:59:21 GMT -5
This Mariners rotation doesn’t give you many breaks but always good to get one off of a front of the rotation guy of that caliber.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 28, 2024 17:11:52 GMT -5
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 28, 2024 9:08:20 GMT -5
I feel like Rafaela would be the safest possible option of the likely candidates, because he's not proven enough to get an outrageously high number and, even if he doesn't hit, he will almost always have value on a major league team as an elite defensive utility guy. If that's his *floor*, I feel like you can do much worse than locking him up at a reasonable price for the next 7 years of whatever it becomes. I am completely spitballing a number here because I don't have a great sense for what is/isn't a fair extension value (still wading my way into the arb stuff as a fan), but let's say for a clean example it's 7/70. If Rafaela is never anything more than a .300 OBP guy with that same elite glove, which again I think would be his floor, you may not be stoked about committing $10 million a year to that but you're also probably still going to get at least a wash in terms of value, provided he plays enough games at short and in center to bring that defensive value. Pivetta would also be a guy I'd love to extend but he's not exactly "young" from a professional athlete standpoint, so while that could just be looking far too much into semantics, it doesn't seem to fit the comments. I know you're just spitballing here but I almost see 0 upside in giving Rafaela a 7/70M deal. Over the next 6 years he probably won't even make half of 70M, so to me they really wouldn't be doing themselves any favors giving him that type of extension. I wouldn't be upset at giving Rafaela an extension assuming the AAV was in the 10M range I guess but I also just don't see the point either. Yeah like I said I still don’t have the math right in my head with all the arb years stuff but was more trying to make a general point about Rafaela being able to provide value at that AAV even if he hits his floor.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 28, 2024 8:43:09 GMT -5
The reason I’m guessing Rafaela is because he’s starting in the majors but there’s still a question around years of service, if they sign him now they can eliminate that question. Agreed it would be risky though, and a big sign of faith in him, but the number could be pretty low. I like the Pivetta guess also. I feel like Rafaela would be the safest possible option of the likely candidates, because he's not proven enough to get an outrageously high number and, even if he doesn't hit, he will almost always have value on a major league team as an elite defensive utility guy. If that's his *floor*, I feel like you can do much worse than locking him up at a reasonable price for the next 7 years of whatever it becomes. I am completely spitballing a number here because I don't have a great sense for what is/isn't a fair extension value (still wading my way into the arb stuff as a fan), but let's say for a clean example it's 7/70. If Rafaela is never anything more than a .300 OBP guy with that same elite glove, which again I think would be his floor, you may not be stoked about committing $10 million a year to that but you're also probably still going to get at least a wash in terms of value, provided he plays enough games at short and in center to bring that defensive value. Pivetta would also be a guy I'd love to extend but he's not exactly "young" from a professional athlete standpoint, so while that could just be looking far too much into semantics, it doesn't seem to fit the comments.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 27, 2024 16:36:15 GMT -5
I predict that he will get MLB at-bats this year. I will also surely never come back to this prediction to see if I was right or not.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 27, 2024 13:02:07 GMT -5
One guy that feels like a huge riser right now is Ryan Johnson from DBU. At this point in time I’d be really interested in him as an under slot guy if Burns/Smith are off the board, as I think he’s probably not that far off of Brecht talent-wise, and may come with lower bonus demands. He feels a lot like Cade Horton, who the Cubs were obviously very high on. Also I feel like such a boomer for now knowing how to make the tweet embed properly, can someone let me know how to do it lol x.com/dseifertd1pbr/status/1771344950589837767?s=46Just delete the “x” before “.com” and replace it with “twitter” I had never heard of Johnson, but even in CUSA 13.7 K/9 to 1.1 BB/9 is eyebrow raising. Yesavage is another underslot option I like. Brecht’s BB rate is just absurdly high and worries me a lot. Santucci has a 6+ BB/9 too. The Red Sox pick might be at an iffy spot for arms unless they go underslot for one. Okay thanks that’s what I thought it was but I was too afraid to take the risk lol I also like Yesavage, I’ve talked about seeing him at the Charlottesville regional last year. I think he’s got a really good floor but not a ton of projection, which is fine especially since I’ve argued for floor in the first round anyway.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 27, 2024 12:16:51 GMT -5
One guy that feels like a huge riser right now is Ryan Johnson from DBU. At this point in time I’d be really interested in him as an under slot guy if Burns/Smith are off the board, as I think he’s probably not that far off of Brecht talent-wise, and may come with lower bonus demands. He feels a lot like Cade Horton, who the Cubs were obviously very high on. Also I feel like such a boomer for now knowing how to make the tweet embed properly, can someone let me know how to do it lol
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 26, 2024 16:47:03 GMT -5
I’ll be at a game there in a week, may have to do a review…
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 26, 2024 6:47:47 GMT -5
"A new pod is up... A NEW POD IS UP!" Kind of ridiculous it took so long to be honest, it’s not like they had anything better to do..
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 23, 2024 13:49:58 GMT -5
Jeremy Wu-Yelland as a fastball/slider reliever from the left side could move fast through the system and have Josh Taylor type run in the majors. Blake Wehunt is a 6'7 guy with good control and a completely new Driveline'd up repertoire that I'm excited to see in action Those are the two that stand out to me This is already aging well. Dominant day for Wehunt today. Out of curiosity - where did you hear about his driveline work? I searched around and didn’t see much on him. The reference is to all of the ex-Driveline guys in the org and that his new pitch mix meshes with their values.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 23, 2024 9:15:13 GMT -5
I’ll just go with a general grouping and say that mid-draft crop of college arms from last year: Trennor O’Donnell Blake Wehunt Max Carlson Cade Feeney Isaac Stebens
Even if they’re mostly relief-only profiles, it will be exciting to see what this new pitching development staff can do to guys at the very front end of the pro development lifespan.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 22, 2024 21:12:51 GMT -5
Feels like Luke Holman is going to be real popular on this board.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 21, 2024 22:36:25 GMT -5
Got to work tonight's Mississippi State - Texas A&M game, which is a better matchup than it appeared to be before the season, given MissSt's resurgence this year. After a really rough outing against Florida in which everything was getting barreled, I think Ryan Prager had an excellent bounceback against a solid SEC offense (so a very good offense in a vacuum). He got 20 whiffs against the team with the lowest K% in the SEC, including 8 in a 4 strikeout first inning. His command wasn't as sharp in this one, but he still oozes pitchability and really knows how to attack hitters. His feel for his breaking ball is legitimately excellent, and I think that's probably his best weapon at this point. He still doesn't have a ton of power, really consistently 90-92 though the metrics were good when I got to sneak a look at the pitch data, but the frame is good and he's still not that far removed from an injury that took away his entire sophomore season. If a team thinks they can get two more ticks on the fastball and add a cutter, I think there's a #4 starter in there.
On offense, A&M has three first round picks, if not top 10 picks, sitting at the top of the order. Jace LaViolette and Gavin Grahovac aren't yet eligible so I won't belabor the point with them, but both are pretty special bats. Braden Montgomery is my favorite archetype of player - an elite overall athlete who has yet to focus solely on one aspect of the game (I also made a pretty dumb claim about Will Taylor for this same reason). His bat speed is truly elite and even if he's not a 30 homer guy (which he could be), he's going to hit an absolute crap ton of doubles in his career. He's also a pretty legit switch hitter, though I'd say he's definitely better from the left side from what I've seen. Since he currently pitches (though I'm not sure that should continue much longer) he obviously has a great arm for right and the athleticism to handle center, though LaViolette has that locked down. There's probably a little more swing and miss than you'd like to see, but not to a concerning degree. Ultimately I think he's got a chance to be a true 5 tool guy, maybe a 45 hit, with more than enough everywhere else to make up for it.
On the Mississippi State side, I came into it wanting to like Dakota Jordan as a power over hit corner guy, and came away feeling confident that, even in a one game sample, there's just no chance he hits enough to ever get to it at the next level. He swung and missed at just about everything and let some very hittable strikes get by him as well. I know he's been on an absolute tear this year and the K% is improved, but that was comfortably the worst I'd ever seen a supposedly big time hitter look, so I'm more or less out, I think.
Not a whole lot else stood out. Mississippi State threw a freshman pitcher who I think will be really good one day, a 6'4" lefty who's had a lot of success this year but struggled. A&M has a few older seniors that are solid all around players in Ted Burton and Jackson Appel but probably just aren't true impact guys, though Appel has a chance as a catcher. Some interesting long term arms coming out of the A&M bullpen too, but mostly younger guys. Hoping to get a few more looks at Chris Cortez this year, he's an enigma as a guy with a huge fastball in the upper-90s with movement but no idea where it's going.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 20, 2024 12:01:33 GMT -5
Red Sox really couldn't have beaten 2/62? Whatever. Montgomery is probably going to the Mets or Yankees for 2/55 with a mutual option or something. I wouldn’t have wanted them to try to beat 2/62.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 20, 2024 11:23:43 GMT -5
Jeez, he transformed his body so much he grew two inches, that's some serious dedication
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 18, 2024 13:34:39 GMT -5
If I were shadow drafting here, I'd pretty comfortably go any of the next three college pitchers over Honeycutt. Also interesting to note this is a significant low water mark for Seaver King and Josh Hartle. Even in games he's been productive, I have not been in love with what I've seen from King.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 16, 2024 18:31:43 GMT -5
Nick Kurtz out 3-to-4 weeks. Given that he hasn’t really done a ton this year (feels like teams are pitching around him at all costs), he’s another potential faller.
Random, but Jac Caglianone’s defense is really good. Obviously just a very good athlete. I’m still a bit skeptical, but he’s seemingly improved on his contact issues to some degree, though Chris Cortez did make him look pretty foolish in one at bat yesterday. Granted, that came after he hit two homers, so….
If y’all like offense, picking up this A&M-Florida game on now and watching the Sunday game will be extremely your jam.
I continue to love Braden Montgomery.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 13, 2024 18:17:23 GMT -5
29 MLB GM’s: “Well, we’d need to evaluate the short and long term costs/benefits of this move before jumping to a decision” AJ Preller: “HEY GUYS YOU KNOW WHAT WOULD BE REALLY COOL???”
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 12, 2024 16:46:01 GMT -5
Everybody made fun of the tigers for that pick but the Rangers pick looks much worse. Who’s everybody? I didn’t see that from anyone, outside of Boston fans happy that Mayer fell but that’s different.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 12, 2024 9:17:39 GMT -5
Another bet I'd make if there were a line on it - against Judge making the hall of fame. Did you know: he has only 846 career hits? And is about to turn 32. No modern player has made it in with fewer than 2000. He actually has only 5 more career PAs than Devers. Having an MVP award isn't as much of an asset as I thought it'd be, either. 3+ MVP's, no Hall: Bonds, A-Rod (these are obviously not about talent). Pujols isn't yet eligible but will get in, Trout isn't done playing but will get in. 2 MVP's, no Hall: Juan Gonzalez, Dale Murphy, Roger Maris (I know his name obviously from the 61 homer year but honestly if you'd have had me guess his career stats, I would have been WAY off). Miguel Cabrera isn't eligible yet but will get it, Harper and Ohtani both still playing but should ultimately get in. 1 MVP, no Hall: Jim Konstanty, Al Rosen, Zoilo Versalles. Ichiro, Posey, Pedroia, and Braun are all not yet eligible, Ichiro is a mortal lock, Posey is an interesting case but the other two won't get in. Not going to compare Juan Gonzalez to Judge as a player because he retired when I was 9, but there is very very little chance Judge surpasses his counting stats so if Gonzalez isn't in with 2 MVPs, I doubt Judge has a shot.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 11, 2024 21:36:57 GMT -5
... Will he be gone by then, though? He is the biggest enigma in the draft, in my eyes. Obvious tools but hasn't shown that he's figured out the contact issues at all. he’s been somewhat better this year than last, hitting about 333 with an OPS over 1 and 26% K rate. Speed, defense, power and arm. He’s like a 6’3” 205 Ceddanne Rafaela. Someone will take the gamble. Someone will certainly fall in love with him, but I can also definitely see him sliding past 12 if teams don’t think he’ll make consistent contact.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 11, 2024 13:47:14 GMT -5
Watching UNC play Pittsburgh on a beautiful sunny day. Not many prospects or scouts (one old guy with a gun who just took a long break). CF Vance Honeycutt who will be gone before we pick is 2-3 with a long double to RCF and a K. Having a better offensive year than his sophomore season, but still the hit tool might lag behind the other 4. Runs very much like a deer. ... Will he be gone by then, though? He is the biggest enigma in the draft, in my eyes. Obvious tools but hasn't shown that he's figured out the contact issues at all.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 10, 2024 0:04:20 GMT -5
You can't just assume the ROY will go to the #1 prospect. Here are some randos who won it in the recent past:
2021: Jonathan India 2020: Kyle Lewis, Devin Williams 2016: Michael Fulmer 2013: Wil Myers 2011: Jeremy Hellickson, Craig Kimbrel* 2010: Neftali Feliz 2009: Andrew Bailey, Chris Coghlan
If these guys can win ROY, Rafaela can. Though it is admittedly a long shot.
*Yes, Kimbrel is a rando. All relief pitchers are by definition randos. (And also: geez, sportswriters, stop voting for relief pitchers as ROY.)
BA rated Jeremy Hellickson the 6th best prospect in baseball prior to 2011. He wasn’t a rando. Upon further review Wil Myers was a top 20 guy as well (and I do remember him carrying a ton of hype at the time)
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 9, 2024 23:43:44 GMT -5
You can't just assume the ROY will go to the #1 prospect. Here are some randos who won it in the recent past:
2021: Jonathan India 2020: Kyle Lewis, Devin Williams 2016: Michael Fulmer 2013: Wil Myers 2011: Jeremy Hellickson, Craig Kimbrel* 2010: Neftali Feliz 2009: Andrew Bailey, Chris Coghlan
If these guys can win ROY, Rafaela can. Though it is admittedly a long shot.
*Yes, Kimbrel is a rando. All relief pitchers are by definition randos. (And also: geez, sportswriters, stop voting for relief pitchers as ROY.)
This is fair, but just to add a little context. Preseason favorites for some of these races: - 2021 NL: Ke'Bryan Hayes, Sixo Sanchez, Ian Anderson - 2020 NL: Gavin Lux was the only one I could find - 2020 AL: Michael Kopech, Casey Mize - 2016 AL: Byron Buxton, Byung-ho Park (I had to look up who this was), Jose Berrios I couldn't find good odds for years prior. I add that to say this - I won't say Rafaela CAN'T do it, crazier things have certainly happened. But I think you'd agree a field of Jackson Holliday, Wyatt Langford, Evan Carter, and Nolan Schanuel (among others) is much stronger than the projected fields in some of the years these "randos" (I'd quibble on India being a rando, but I digress) won. But also my point was mostly that I simply wouldn't let something with such a slim chance of happening impact my decision on what to do with him if I thought it went against what's best for his developement or the development of the outfield as a whole. The Andrew Bailey trivia was a fun benefit of all this, too!
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 9, 2024 22:37:37 GMT -5
It's 2024, ROY will go to whoever leads in WAR Eh maybe, that’s happened 60% of the time in the last 5 years which is certainly a strong trend but it’s not definitive, and the voting beyond the winner certainly gets messy to where it’s not just a descending list by WAR.
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