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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 9, 2024 22:22:23 GMT -5
Obviously his odds right now aren't good but if his spring training stats held and he put up a ~110 wRC+ and won the CF gold glove he'd have to at least be in the conversation, right? Rafaela with a 110 wRC+ would be like a top 20-25 position player in baseball haha
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 9, 2024 22:19:49 GMT -5
How often is the actual rookie of the year the pre-season favorite ? I'm of the opposite view that a defensive minded shortstop or center fielder has a leg up to start. Casas last year had no shot as a first baseman. What are you talking about? If Casas had hit over the whole season the way he did from June on, he’d have won it. And award voting has gotten so skewed towards offensive production that the running joke is that it’s even seeped into the Gold Gloves. All of that aside, you have the number one prospect in baseball likely to play a significant chunk of the season and a guy in Evan Carter whose cup of coffee extrapolated across the entire season would’ve put him in the MVP conversation, let alone rookie of the year. You don’t force Rafaela up because of a draft pick incentive when he’s, at best, the sixth or seventh most likely guy (and that’s being REAL generous). Even if the dead favorite rarely wins it, which may or may not be true, I’m not going to do that digging.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 9, 2024 22:01:17 GMT -5
It’s a little more defensible when there are other good young options in the mix and he’s the most natural “wait a bit” candidate. It’s also not that long of a wait. Service time stuff does get a bit dicey but this one is reasonable imo. There's also the ROY draft pick factor to consider since he's top 100. I’m not really anticipating him factoring into the rookie of the year conversation a whole lot mostly because I have doubts that a defense-oriented guy would really be considered, but also due to the fact that there are three other guys ahead of him that are all pretty clearly more likely to compete for it in Holliday (whenever he’s promoted), Carter, and Langford. And there are others I could probably add to that list, too.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 9, 2024 21:47:25 GMT -5
Part of me says do we really want to be a team that plays the service time game but also part of me says they maybe should with rafaela. It’s a little more defensible when there are other good young options in the mix and he’s the most natural “wait a bit” candidate. It’s also not that long of a wait. Service time stuff does get a bit dicey but this one is reasonable imo.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 8, 2024 21:26:33 GMT -5
With the caveat that Texas A&M has had a pretty weak weekend schedule (though for the purposes of this discussion ASU’s offense is fine), Ryan Prager has been excellent for the Aggies so far this year.
Coming into tonight, he went 16.2 innings across 3 starts with 27 strikeouts against 8 hits, 3 walks, and no runs allowed.
Tonight again an admittedly putrid Rhode Island lineup - 7 IP, 1 H, 0 BB, 13 K’s. Just tough to do, regardless of competition.
Good size at 6’3”, 185. Makes the most of a true over the top delivery, sits 91-93 the fastball from the left side, but has largely pitched backwards and leaned on his slider, which sits at about 82-84. Throws both for a ton of strikes and hitters have a really tough time picking up on it. Hasn’t really messed with a third pitch much, but hasn’t really been challenged yet.
Was pretty well regarded as a freshman but missed last year with an injury, great to see him off to a good start and hopefully he can build on it entering conference play, though I do think he will need a third pitch. Not an elite guy by any means but certainly a top 10 round guy to keep an eye on.
I’ll probably post about A&M’s offense as a whole later on in the season because again the competition has been bad but man… they can rake.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 8, 2024 20:12:44 GMT -5
Jonathan Santucci vs. Josh Hartle tonight, I'm hoping to get home from the gym in time for the tail end of their starts but that'll be a really good one. Not a good night for either. Brecht goes 4IP 1H 0ER 3BB 9K in a rain-shortened outing. Yeah I tuned in for that inning and Santucci was missing everywhere, Wake is obviously a good offense but they didn’t seem all too fazed by anything he threw out there.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 8, 2024 13:33:15 GMT -5
I’ve long argued that the best players would actually make terrible coaches, so I don’t view it as a negative that Bailey was merely a solid professional.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 8, 2024 10:08:30 GMT -5
Jonathan Santucci vs. Josh Hartle tonight, I'm hoping to get home from the gym in time for the tail end of their starts but that'll be a really good one.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 7, 2024 13:54:44 GMT -5
Obviously, unless Travis Bazzana is still available. Oh my god. Do not make me dream on a Bazzana-Zanatello middle infield. Bazzanatello!!!
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 7, 2024 13:24:46 GMT -5
You are very clearly the one who is not seeing it here. Nobody is arguing that Cooper Criswell is a future ace, but you threw a tantrum over the fact that Breslow said a nice thing about a guy on the team he runs, as if he would do anything else. That does not preclude him from going out and signing another pitcher to jump Criswell in the rotation, it doesn't even preclude him from signing two! But to act as if he'd say anything but supporting the guy who is, as of now, currently in the mix for one of those spots is asinine. And when exactly is he going to go out and sign this extra pitcher or 2? All winter I heard don't worry, there is still a lot of time before opening day. Now there are 3 weeks before opening day. Last year at this time we had all the starting candidates they are considering now plus Sale, Paxton, and Kluber (yes, I know he was a bust but at least he was a good pitcher at one time). And their starting pitching last year was poor. How does anyone expect it to be any better this year? Whitlock has never pitched more than 80 innings in the big Leagues in a year. Wink has marginal stuff. Cooper Criswell? Seriously? His below 4.00 ERA was IN THE MINORS. He has had very 2 short stints in the majors and his ERA was well over 5 in each. I just don't see how you can be optimistic about the starting pitching at this point. Did you mean to respond to someone else, or are you just using my point to complain into the void? 1. I never said signing another pitcher was a “when” deal, or any sort of guarantee, only that he could and his comments don’t mean he won’t. 2. I never once said I was optimistic about the starting pitching, I never even gave a remote inclination that I was, so that’s entirely unrelated. 3. The whole “I was told this and that blah blah blah” BS entirely ignores what the FA process has been for every team and that this pitching staff looked generally fine before a significant injury to a previously durable starter. So the whole “snapshot in time” thing doesn’t really fly as a comparison. It’s hilarious how your post simultaneously managed to miss my point entirely AND in a sense prove my point about why absolutism in these circumstances is ridiculous.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 7, 2024 12:52:56 GMT -5
Deal checks out. You assume roughly 5/35 is what he would have gotten if things go relatively well. So you get 1 free agent year for $20m, which is likely but not certainly a discount, and the option for another for $21m in exchange for guaranteeing that 5/35. It also totally makes sense both based on his background and his position that Bello would be more interested in this deal than Casas. With how few players are hitting FA due to these type of extensions, $20 million will probably be a bargain for a FA starter in 2030 and 31. Yeah I mean you can point to the Giolito contract as a pretty good argument that it's not an insane amount to assume he'd be worth at that point.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 7, 2024 12:52:04 GMT -5
Another benefit of this deal (and any potential Casas deal) in my head is that, assuming you get the expected influx of cheap talent that is sitting at the top of the prospect rankings, having relatively moderate fixed costs allows you more flexibility when pursuing big fish in a year or two, because you're now less worried about high AAV extensions for your own guys in the near term. Key word in my head, because I'm still just kind of dipping my toes into the contract side of things.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 7, 2024 12:40:01 GMT -5
So this kicks in next year and ends in 2030 with a team option for 2031? Or kick that all up a year? Either way, love to see a homegrown talent get locked in, and the bar he needs to clear to deliver surplus value on that contract is pretty low.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 7, 2024 10:40:30 GMT -5
A month or so ago, Casas pretty much came out and said (in so many words), "my family and I are financially comfortable, so I don't feel any great urgency about an extension." Maybe they extend him tomorrow, but I won't be surprised if, short of some monster deal, he decides to go year to year. Didn't he also say within these same sets of quotes (or maybe prior ones) that he wants to be in Boston forever? Now he's obviously not going to come out and say that he wants out but he also doesn't need to make that level of promise about it, either. I would like to get him locked up long-term if possible but I'm also quite confident that, barring a catastrophic lowball, he will be a Red Sox for a long time.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 7, 2024 10:15:47 GMT -5
I was going to do a little summary on former draftees, but Law throwing Payton Green at 23rd overall here takes most of the thunder away from that. He's bounced around a bit but good for him making what seems to have been the right decision. I do like Yesavage, he really impressed me when I saw him at their Regional last year, but if Santucci comes back with clean medicals I'm taking him over all of the pitchers ranked ahead of him up to (and maybe even including) Brecht. I think he'll probably be "my guy" on the pitching side this year. I also view Yesavage as a floor > ceiling guy which isn't inherently a bad thing, I wrote a novel on preferring floor in the first round, but typically with the assumption that the floor comes with slot savings that may not be there if his stock continues to rise as it has.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 7, 2024 10:11:23 GMT -5
So he doesn't think Condon will be there at #12 is what you're saying. I'm going to hang on to the last two words of his writeup ("jumbled class") to dear life. Keep the hope alive!
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 7, 2024 10:10:08 GMT -5
1000%. Hes only under control for a few more years and this makes WAY more sense. Casas and Bello hit free agency the same year. Details, details...
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 7, 2024 9:46:14 GMT -5
You’re right he should’ve just started sewering everybody on the roster instead. Or he should at least just publicly appear desperate so agents and the league can take advantage of him. It’s a dumb take, just own it (or delete it) instead of doubling down Ok im literally shocked that nobody seems to see it but thats fine. Everyone knows the 2 guys battling for the 5th spot before the injury. Now I have to read articles published by MLB.com about Copper Criswell possibly earning a spot in our rotation and not want to cry? 27 year old 6 foot 6. That sounds great. Thats where it ends. 88 mph fastball. 76 mph slider. Gets barreled and exit velocity is very high. Yeah thats not what I wanted to hear from my GM when our best pitcher goes down and neither should anyone here. Bring up Tanner or Winckowski or Whitlock or Crawford or just say we have some guys in house we really like. Ill triple down on it. Im also going to drop it. I pray Cooper is good but......yeah. You are very clearly the one who is not seeing it here. Nobody is arguing that Cooper Criswell is a future ace, but you threw a tantrum over the fact that Breslow said a nice thing about a guy on the team he runs, as if he would do anything else. That does not preclude him from going out and signing another pitcher to jump Criswell in the rotation, it doesn't even preclude him from signing two! But to act as if he'd say anything but supporting the guy who is, as of now, currently in the mix for one of those spots is asinine.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 6, 2024 15:04:08 GMT -5
Saw this and didn't understand the logic. Wouldn't it make the most sense for the Red Sox to include this season in deal considering they are so far under the CBT anyways and they would have a lower AAV in later years? Yeah I’d think they’d want to do the opposite and front load it into their space this year and then lower their hit later on. But I don’t get paid to do this stuff so who knows.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 6, 2024 9:52:10 GMT -5
What's he supposed to say? Let's see anything but Cooper Criswell. He could say we still have some guys that we feel really good about and are still looking outside. Cmon there's 10000 things he could say and he said Cooper Criswell. Bello Whitlock Pivetta Crawford Houck that's 5 with Winckowski at 6. Cooper Criswell. Thats a joke. Have you seen Criswell throw a single pitch, or are you just assuming he's bad? Breslow should be showing belief in his players, always. There are only downsides in negativity for the sake of negativity. I would not be surprised if Breslow adds a Clevinger, or a Lorenzen, or a Hill to add some depth. He should still show belief in his players regardless. Also, Breslow may be right. Now I am not personally putting my eggs in the Cooper Criswell basket, and my preference would be signing both Clevinger AND Lorenzen and then pawning them off at the deadline, but the overreaction to some pretty basic comments about a guy already in the org is hilarious.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 5, 2024 19:55:07 GMT -5
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 5, 2024 14:24:39 GMT -5
Wow, the crape hanging around heere has gotten totally out of hand, what do we have a bunch of sports talk radio rejects joining the site to whine and complain? This team is transitioning to a young and exciting group with more on the way and they are going to bond on the fact that everyone is dissing them before the first pitch is thrown in anger. On the other hand, how nervous are the Dodgers having committed over $1 BILLION to two pitchers (although Ohtani will recoup some of that as a batter) as they see yet another workhorse go down with an apparent season ending injury? Hopefully we can at least wait until the games that count start before the "woe is us" drowns out the rest because reading this stuff ad infinitum is not my ides of a good time. In general I agree that this board tends to get a little dramatic, though nowhere near as bad as other places. But I feel like news that a projected key starter is out for the year is a pretty reasonable place to be a little upset. Also, it's a little insane that you chastise folks here for their reactions but suggest that the Dodgers should be reacting nervously to a pitcher on another team getting hurt.. just a bit ironic. Also the age old "if reading this isn't a good time for you, don't click it" always applies.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 4, 2024 12:47:50 GMT -5
Can I ask what might be a basic question with ratings? MLB gives Sandlin a 55 for fastball, curveball, slider, and control. A 50 for splitter. But then they only go 45 overall. How is that possible? The only ding in the write-up is command. I get it is a problem, but that seems like a dramatic drop off. That was the last takeaway I had that I forgot to include, because I get annoyed with it every time - I've never liked the way they've done their rating system. The way I interpret it is that's the equivalent of FG's FV grades, but without the PV it's missing pretty vital context. And then the overall grade ends up being a general projection, which is.. inconsistent? But that interpretation gets the closest to making it make sense in my head.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 4, 2024 10:49:26 GMT -5
A couple takeaways: - They note that Fitts has the highest ceiling among Boston pitching prospects but they certainly mean floor, right? - They had a Sandler typo on Sandlin's profile lol - Calling Arias the system's best defender at shortstop is extremely bold, but if it's true then obviously that's an extremely exciting prospect - There's somewhat of a throw-in in Brannon's writeup that he might be able to handle third if he has to move off of catcher. Has he ever played third before? That just feels like a pretty extreme jump from the transitions you normally see to first or left field
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 3, 2024 11:45:21 GMT -5
I think it’s just a case where those two sets of reports aren’t mutually exclusive. The Red Sox could have a low appetite for spending, but if the rest of the league isn’t going to spend at all, then they are then the “likely” destination. I generally believe that both things are true in this case, though I’m not exactly sold he’s guaranteed to wind up in Boston.
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