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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 13, 2023 22:18:36 GMT -5
For a fan that doesn’t have to spend that money, sure. Not for someone running a business. If you can't spend $80MM on an MLB draft, owning a baseball team shouldn't be for you. Considering the multiple years of the team control, you'd probably end up saving money under this strategy as well compared to paying 3 veterans $10MM per for 5 years. How much money do you think MLB owners just have laying around? Very few could just throw out $80 million dollars like it’s nothing lol, an owner’s net worth is not the amount of liquid money they have. Also, they own the team to make money, blowing absurd amounts of money like that is the exact opposite of what they’re going to want to do when it isn’t competitively required (meaning you can field a good team without doing it. It’s a fun thing to say as a fan they should do, but anyone that takes a second to think about it or understands business (I work in Athletics finance, albeit a bit different of an operation) can pretty easily understand why it’s not realistic or even, really, possible.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 13, 2023 22:02:32 GMT -5
...and also, I should add...those older drafts earlier in the thread aren't aging well. That said, I'm pretty convinced the Red Sox board with a BPA approach would do better than a board using MLB Pipeline rankings like the above. However, I still don't think the benefits outweigh the massive $ it would take to pull this off although its not my money. ![:)](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/smiley.png) Let's say you land three T100 prospects applying this approach, including one T20 guy. Wouldn't that justify the $80MM costs and loss of draft picks? For a fan that doesn’t have to spend that money, sure. Not for someone running a business.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 13, 2023 16:41:18 GMT -5
I think there are two things you're missing with the deadline/JDM/the tax line. Well, three, but one is I just think you're underrating the value of a Brooks Brannon-caliber prospect (and probably underselling the level of prospect the increase in comp rounds would've brought in). One, there are a ton of implications to staying under the tax line beyond just the penalties in that given year. Given the extreme scale of the penalties, it's pretty much mandatory that you go under the tax line once every three years to reset your clock (ideally you'd build a winner under the line every time, but sometimes that's just not possible), unless you're willing to just eat the penalties because your existing roster is that good. So by going over the tax line in 2022 when it was very manageable to squeeze under, you're essentially forcing yourself to go under the year after to avoid increased penalties. 30% is a good enough level of playoff odds to convince me to stay in the hunt, but I also think it would've been very doable, especially since a mix of buying and selling was the actual strategy, to get under and still remain competitive. Which leads me to my second point... Outside of an absolutely torrid May, JDM was really bad for most of 2022. He was good, even by DH standards, in April and September, but he was absolutely awful from June-August and had an wRC+ of 62 in July. I could very easily make the argument that trading JDM would not have dramatically worsened the Red Sox's playoff odds, and while part of that is obviously hindsight, I think there was a very good case for it at the time, as well. First, I do not want to simultaneously deal with the arguments "JDM was awful so he wasn't going to help anyway" and "they missed out on the nice trade return they could have gotten for JDM." You all can get together with yourselves and decide which one you want to go with. (And for what it's worth, he had a 147 wRC+ in September last year, so maybe treating his July microsample wouldn't have been so smart.)
Second, there was an excellent logic to going over the LTT last year: they had a ton of money invested on expiring contracts (Eovaldi, JDM, Bogaerts, Vazquez) which meant that a) they had some good players it was worth taking a shot with, and b) 2023 was always going to offer a lot of financial flexibility to get under the LTT and reset that three year clock. Again, I think they goofed in a fairly significant way - but it was by not going over the LTT by more, rather than not getting under it.
Oh, sorry, I didn't realize different people weren't allowed to have different opinions, I'll be sure to double check what you require next time. Thanks! Also it wasn't *just* July, as I clarified, but if that's what you're resorting to cherry-picking, be my guest.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 13, 2023 16:25:03 GMT -5
You also have to add the prospects they would’ve got back for the guys they would’ve sold, like Eovaldi. And in regard to things not being that different between DD and Bloom… I doubt DD would’ve done the buy and sell thing. If you want to talk about the trade deadline as a whole, you have to add in the prospects they could've gotten in trade returns, but you also have to add in the loss of a chance at making the postseason in 2022. (Yes yes, I am aware that some of you are clairvoyants who knew that a 25-30% chance per fangraphs was *really* a 0% chance; nonetheless, my belief is that the 2022 season counted for something at the time.)
But there's a specific scenario which has been floated multiple times, which is that they could've gotten under the LT just by trading JD Martinez. So it's helpful to point out what the actual cost to their approach was: the loss of a) a Brooks Brannon-caliber prospect or the equivalent in the 2023 draft, plus b) a surely negligible trade return for JDM (since they wouldn't have been eating any of his salary in this scenario). That's not nothing, but... it's also not a lot.
I think there are two things you're missing with the deadline/JDM/the tax line. Well, three, but one is I just think you're underrating the value of a Brooks Brannon-caliber prospect (and probably underselling the level of prospect the increase in comp rounds would've brought in). One, there are a ton of implications to staying under the tax line beyond just the penalties in that given year. Given the extreme scale of the penalties, it's pretty much mandatory that you go under the tax line once every three years to reset your clock (ideally you'd build a winner under the line every time, but sometimes that's just not possible), unless you're willing to just eat the penalties because your existing roster is that good. So by going over the tax line in 2022 when it was very manageable to squeeze under, you're essentially forcing yourself to go under the year after to avoid increased penalties. 30% is a good enough level of playoff odds to convince me to stay in the hunt, but I also think it would've been very doable, especially since a mix of buying and selling was the actual strategy, to get under and still remain competitive. Which leads me to my second point... Outside of an absolutely torrid May, JDM was really bad for most of 2022. He was good, even by DH standards, in April and September, but he was absolutely awful from June-August and had an wRC+ of 62 in July. I could very easily make the argument that trading JDM would not have dramatically worsened the Red Sox's playoff odds, and while part of that is obviously hindsight, I think there was a very good case for it at the time, as well.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 13, 2023 15:59:54 GMT -5
Look the narratives do get old, especially since like 80% of the people are arguing in bad faith (and that 80% might be a conservative estimate), but you DO know you don't have to read the threads, right? Like, you posting about how these arguments are beating a dead horse has become beating a dead horse in itself at this point. we can discuss the FO without discssuing the same issues over and over again, so when this is bumped I usually hope its a new topic and not the same re-ashed debate People are free to discuss whatever they like, and like I said I find it annoying that people tend to re-hash the same arguments, but complaining about it and posting the stupid dead horse gif is only adding fuel to the fire of unnecessary and annoying posts, you're not really contributing in any way. So if you just want to be in essence the same as those you're trying to criticize, then that is your right. But it's generally not that difficult to just ignore these things (or just ignore posters - I put a few on ignore recently and it's improved my board experience tremendously). I'd also like to add that I think the tidal wave of anti-Bloom rhetoric is generally idiotic and lacks perspective, so it's not like I'm defending these arguments because I agree with those who are the most vocal about it (which is generally the anti side).
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 13, 2023 15:47:41 GMT -5
Narrator: the year is 2077 and soxprospects.com is still discussing the 2022 MLB trade deadline.. Meanwhile the Red Sox are about to begin a series vs the yankees on the newly opened baseball stadium on the moon Look the narratives do get old, especially since like 80% of the people are arguing in bad faith (and that 80% might be a conservative estimate), but you DO know you don't have to read the threads, right? Like, you posting about how these arguments are beating a dead horse has become beating a dead horse in itself at this point.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 13, 2023 11:42:34 GMT -5
I'm still a little unsure how the draft and follow deal works, is Nelly Taylor eligible for that? Draft and follow only applies to guys that play JuCo after they're drafted, Taylor is committed to Florida State I thought it was for guys currently at a JuCo. Wasn't Ehrlicher committed to ASU?
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 13, 2023 11:22:03 GMT -5
I'm still a little unsure how the draft and follow deal works, is Nelly Taylor eligible for that?
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 13, 2023 10:45:16 GMT -5
Surprised he got that much. I thought that would be a $10k signing. College JR impacted by injuries, would've thought he'd be a little below this but he had a lot to gain by returning so I'm not terribly surprised here.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 13, 2023 10:43:17 GMT -5
Those two signings make me really hesitant to think that Call or Orloski is going to sign. Mike’s first round estimates had Rose and Wehunt going for 30k and 30k not 150k and 100k. (Not a shot at Mike. His guesses are usually spot on). That’s a big difference though, 190k to be exact. If that money doesn’t come back from somewhere else, I don’t see the late round high school guys taking that. I still think he's over on Anderson, but we'll see
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 13, 2023 9:34:24 GMT -5
And this is my issue with people who worship at in the cult of Bloom. Everything wrong was DD and everything right is Bloom. I tend to see it as the exact opposite, people who really dislike Bloom display characteristics of being in a cult. There are a lot of people who evaluate things on a case-by-case basis and have the ability to praise a good move and criticize a move they dislike but to the Bloom hating cult everything is Blooms fault and if you defend any move he's ever made, then that means you're a Bloom fan. For the record, I liked both. EDIT: There's not as much of that in here, this forum is the apex of red sox fandom talk, but if you go elsewhere, it gets really dumb.....really fast. The Athletic had a trade deadline piece up today and I knew the comments section would immediately sink to the absolute lowest levels of brain-deadness (I was right, or as right as you can be when making up words)
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 13, 2023 8:37:46 GMT -5
Do you think they start experimenting with any secondary positions on the Rafaela “once a week” plan to accommodate all of the catchers that deserve some playing time? I mean, I know Kyle Teel doesn’t *have* to move off of catcher, but if he could play second once a week to lessen his load… They DH their priority catchers a fair amount. I presume that'll be the case with him. Punting on the whole "he can play infield too!" thing to focus on defense with Wong seems to have worked out. Now on the flip side of that, do they take a guy who may have questions about his long-term ability to stick behind the plate (Say, Brannon, who will likely be sharing rosters with Teel for the next year and a half) and give him reps at first less out of luxury and more out of necessity? I guess given that they've avoided doing that with Hickey so far indicates they're probably comfortable kicking that can down the road, but just kinda thinking out loud.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 12, 2023 21:38:51 GMT -5
Johanfran Garcia is the only other guy screaming for a promotion but there's only so much playing time at catcher to go around Yeah it feels like they want him to be the main guy behind the dish in the FCL. Plus Teel is almost certainly going to Salem after a short FCL stay anyway. Do you think they start experimenting with any secondary positions on the Rafaela “once a week” plan to accommodate all of the catchers that deserve some playing time? I mean, I know Kyle Teel doesn’t *have* to move off of catcher, but if he could play second once a week to lessen his load…
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 12, 2023 17:18:28 GMT -5
ASG appearances mean absolutely nothing. and its an asinine thing to judge someone on... It’s a fan "voting" contest and nothing more... Remember the times that the entire roster was Rangers players? or when KC fans stuffed the ballots? He got nothing for Eovaldi who is this year one of the best pitchers in the league , and they both went over the cap and finished below .500 but its an asinine thing to bring up? He has had one of the biggest payrolls and his lone playoff appearance was with Dombrowski’s core… he was brought in to lower costs and keep them competitive and he has done neither. I didn’t even bring up his bad FA signings or the way the Bogaerts extension talks were handled. Its entirely a reasonable question to ask whether he’ll be extended. Asking whether or not he’ll be extended was reasonable but that also wasn’t your initial post - and you’re still ignoring the reality of the Eovaldi situation
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 12, 2023 17:07:04 GMT -5
every one of those has been brought up ad nauseam in this thread that the dead horse is now just dust in the wind Apologies, but seeing several of them in the all star game was a big reminder of it. I’m not sure what happens if we miss the playoffs again. Do they let Bloom play out the last year of his contract? Extending him wouldn’t make sense but they extended Farrell and then fired him anyway. Should Ben Cherington be fired for not getting a return for Elias Diaz, too?
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 12, 2023 15:18:01 GMT -5
Given some of the guys that have been signed as UDFA's so far (Josh Moylan and Eric Kennedy are two guys I'm pretty shocked didn't get picked), I would hope Pearson gets around to that as there's probably some talent to be had out there. Most teams haven't signed any UDFAs yet. According to D1 Baseball, this is incorrect: d1baseball.com/prospects/2023-undrafted-free-agent-signings-tracker/
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 12, 2023 14:20:31 GMT -5
Given some of the guys that have been signed as UDFA's so far (Josh Moylan and Eric Kennedy are two guys I'm pretty shocked didn't get picked), I would hope Pearson gets around to that as there's probably some talent to be had out there.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 12, 2023 11:49:59 GMT -5
So it looks like: Kavadas to AAA Wikelman and Blaze to AA Perales, Castro, Cepeda to A+ Which gives us: AAA +1 (at 28 adding one) AA +1 (at 25, -1, +2, +3 Futures Game guys) A+ -1 (at 28, -2, +3) A -3 (at 30, -3) Any other guesses? I'm presuming Ferguson back to Greenville resolving AAA. Either Esplin back to Greenville or Donlan back to Dev List resolving AA. Drive probably put Diaz back on the Dev list if Esplin comes back. Salem is the mystery. Simon comes off the Dev List I'm sure. Johnfrank feels like an option but they already have too many infielders and catchers - they need outfielders but there are only 5 healthy ones in the FCL as well. Maaaaaaybe Yuten up? They probably also can just ride it out waiting for draftees. And I figure LDLR slides into the rotation temporarily until, like, Duffy is ready. Any shot they push one of the college OFs (Rose or Tucker) up if/when they sign?
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 12, 2023 11:00:13 GMT -5
9. Roman Anthony 10. Marcelo Mayer 39. Nick Yorke 54. Ceddanne Rafaela Holy crap Roman lol
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 12, 2023 9:17:59 GMT -5
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 11, 2023 16:42:07 GMT -5
I think the real question here is where does that $450,000 that is guessed here as going to Phoenix Call end up going? Before that pick, my guess (based on nothing other than just being too free to offer my opinions on things I know nothing about) was that Antonio Anderson would get a couple hundred thousand over 2m and then maybe someone(s) in the 11+ rounds get maybe $200,000-250,000 and maybe Justin Reimer randomly costs a little more than that or something - no unexpected signings in other words. Sure do hope it's a guy named Phoenix who ALSO happens to have an all-time great last name for prospect puns. The gameday threads will write themselves, iakovos11 is salivating. Petition to divert SP Donation Drive funds into a new Soxprospects NIL fund where we funnel some royalties to Call every time his name is used in a game thread title to help entice him to sign
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 11, 2023 16:25:35 GMT -5
Hope you’re right! As long as 1 of the 3 high schoolers taken today sign I’m good, but Call would obviously be the preference. I’m still skeptical Tucker signs for the reasons I laid out in the Day 3 thread, but would love for him to.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 11, 2023 16:07:07 GMT -5
So this one is very much in my wheelhouse, and I’m pretty excited about it. Tucker didn’t play a whole lot last year at A&M after being a JuCo All-American which is weird because 1. Texas A&M’s incumbent center fielder regressed a bit and 2. He was electric when he played. Very small so not a lot of power potential at all (if he even has any) but a very direct swing path leads to some pretty solid contact skills and his the speed plays a LOT on the bases and in the field.
That said, I almost wonder if he’s not signable? I’d heard some whisperings he was in the portal and while it’s been a few weeks with no update to that, I’d have to imagine in his mind his stock can only go up with more reps. I’d certainly be excited to get his athleticism into the system but I’m skeptical he signs until proven otherwise.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 11, 2023 13:54:23 GMT -5
From '22 D1 Baseball Fall Report: Feeney is an athletic, power-armed righthander that has gone 15-4, 3.93 in two years with the Bison. In 149 innings combined between his freshman and sophomore seasons, he has a 118-to-33 strikeout-to-walk ratio, proving his ability to not only miss bats but also fill up the strike zone. Feeney’s velo was up a tick this fall, sitting 90-93 and touching 94 with his fastball. He also throws a slider but Oakes was most impressed with the development and confidence of his changeup, which is now a legitimate third pitch. “He’s a three-sport athlete and won a state title in every sport that he played,” Oakes said of his projected ace. “He goes out and gets things done, he’s a winner in every step along the way.” Love taking guys that were focused on other sports for a large part of their athletics career, that + a collegiate developmental program that probably isn’t top tier and you’d have to imagine there’s some projection for improvement there
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 11, 2023 13:35:26 GMT -5
Bryce Madron is a guy I’d like to see at some point today. I get the age thing but I’m pretty surprised he hasn’t been taken yet.
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