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danr
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Post by danr on Apr 5, 2016 18:59:35 GMT -5
Obviously one game doesn't mean much, but this looks like a much better team than last year's. I love that BP and it only is going get better when Smith arrives.
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danr
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Post by danr on Apr 4, 2016 11:59:11 GMT -5
Does anyone know how the extreme cold affects breaking pitches? Because that could be a huge factor in today's game. Kluber obviously heavily relies on his curveball/slider, whereas Price is viewed more as mostly a fastball/changeup pitcher, correct? If Kluber has a hard time with gripping the curve today, maybe we'll see the Sox capitalize. What I recall from when I was a kid in the Buffalo area and trying to be a pitcher is that breaking balls don't break as much in cold weather and it is harder to grip the ball properly. Fastballs, on the other hand, seem faster and a cold bat hitting a fastball at the end of the bat can sting up to your elbows.
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danr
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Post by danr on Apr 4, 2016 10:20:41 GMT -5
This seems like a complete non-sequitur to me. If I'm leading 4-0 after 6 innings, the other team can have all the dominant relievers it wants. It goes without saying that, all other things being equal, a good bullpen is preferable to a bad bullpen. But you have not provided an argument that, given limited resources, you should invest them here rather than in other areas. I think you are being a little snarky, which definitely doesn't advance any argument. I didn't argue that a team should invest resources in RPs at the expense of other needs. A first class bullpen isn't of prime importance to a non-contending team that has many other needs. And whether a contending team needs a stronger bullpen really depends on where its strengths and weaknesses are. It may be that a contender, like KC, because it already has strong starters and RPs, could better spend its resources improving its hitting. But many contenders do not have dominant relief pitching. Many realize that because of various reasons - including what Eric points out and the fact that starters are pitching fewer innings - having dominant relief pitching is vital to success. If they already are contenders with the team they have, then they can afford to go big for dominant RPs, of whom there are not many. The laws of supply and demand kick in and the cost of good RPs goes up. It was obvious last year that the Sox needed improvement in both starters and relievers. Price is a significant improvement in the starting pitching but I am not sure he is enough. The Sox did significantly improve the bullpen and if Smith is OK it will be a dominant one.
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danr
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Post by danr on Apr 4, 2016 9:18:00 GMT -5
What no one has mentioned is that starting pitchers generally no longer are expected to go more than 6 innings. Last season I looked at the average number of innings pitched by starting pitchers and it was just shy of six. The pitch count limits probably are the main reason for this. Also, statistics show that batters hit much better after seeing a pitcher two or three times in a game.
It seems obvious that a team intent on winning wants to have dominant pitchers in almost every inning. That means the bullpen should have three or four dominant pitchers, maybe even five for a team to win a championship percentage of its games.
Thus, what Eric described, along with the increasing number of innings pitched by RPs, are racheting up the value of reliably dominant RPs.
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danr
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Post by danr on Apr 3, 2016 18:12:14 GMT -5
I haven't been posting much in some time because of other activities but I am paying attention. I like the starting lineup for the most part. I don't think Brock Holt should be the LF. If they have decided that Castillo can't be the starter, then they really need to get someone else. I am very happy to see Shaw get a shot at a starting position. I have liked him for a while.
I am uneasy about the starting pitching. I am not convinced that it is good enough to get the Sox into the post-season.
I think this is a better team than last year and the Eastern Division is up for grabs. So anything could happen. I have not made predictions this year because there just are too many uncertainties all across MLB.
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danr
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Post by danr on Feb 21, 2016 20:53:08 GMT -5
I love this time of year. Everything is starting over, along with amusing panic over things the manager says that once play starts probably will be meaningless as well as various things that may or may not mean anything.
Can Young play CF? We'll know soon. Can Sandoval play with that pillow around his stomach? Ditto. Will Hanley find a 1b glove? Ditto.
I continue to believe that we are going to have a lot more fun this year than we did last year.
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danr
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Post by danr on Feb 8, 2016 18:45:49 GMT -5
I started this thread and it certainly has had a long and busy life but as soon as I saw the story this morning about the truck it occurred to me that it was time to end this thread. So let's do it and move onto the new thread on spring training that Chris created. I think we're going to have more fun this year than we did last year.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jan 21, 2016 23:48:28 GMT -5
Scott LauberVerified account @scottlauber 2h2 hours ago Farrell: Sandoval is down 20-22 lbs. since end of season. #RedSox That's better than a pound a week but not by much. That means it may stay off if he is reasonably sensible about his diet. I lost 50 lbs in 2015 and it was gradual, just about a pound a week and I did it without starving myself, just keeping the carbs away and having regular exercise. His problem is that he probably could stand to lose another 20 lbs., which he probably won't now. But it shows he is trying and that is good news.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Jan 14, 2016 2:39:34 GMT -5
Come on folks, baseball is by far the hardest sport in which to excel, especially as a position player. No other sport requires as many different skills to be successful. Hitting a round ball with a round bat is just one of them. Fielding a ball coming at you at 90-100 MPH is another. Throwing a runner out is another. Catching a fly ball hit from 380 feet away is another.
Baseball requires fast reflexes, great muscle memory, arm strength, good legs, great eyesight and great instincts. Other sports like football and hockey may be tougher on the body but the skills required to be successful are more limited. I think hockey might be the second toughest sport because it is so fast.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Dec 31, 2015 14:51:22 GMT -5
I think it was a good trade for the Yankees. They didn't give up anyone who had much of a future with them and they got a player who might help them get into the post season again - and do better there than they did this year. That is worth an enormous amount for the Yankees. Then, if he walks they get a draft choice that possibly could yield a prospect better than any of the ones they traded.
But I am very skeptical that the Yankee lineup can get them to the post-season. I think the East is going to be between Toronto and the Sox.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Dec 31, 2015 14:44:01 GMT -5
I just glanced through the ZIPS and Steamer projections for the Sox. Steamer is more bullish on most of the players. If I counted correctly, they also projected 93 wins for the Sox.
Is there any consensus on which projection system is better, or how these two compare to BP and others?
The problem I have with the ZIPS projections is that there are far too many PAs for a number of players. Steamer seems to have a more realistic projection of PAs. ZIPS is trying to project what a player would do basically as a starter. So Shaw, Travis and Ramirez have more PAs than they could in reality. It seems to me that projecting a player as a starter would yield different results from those projecting him as a bench/partimer.
BTW, Happy New Year everyone!
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danr
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Post by danr on Dec 7, 2015 18:52:10 GMT -5
People forget that Sandoval played hurt for much of the second half. He had knee and leg injuries that affected his swing. I think there is a good chance that he will be considerably better next season.
What moves are the Sox still likely to make?
My guess is that they get another SP, most likely by trade, trading one the current SPs, a RP and a prospect or two for a very good, number 2ish SP.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Dec 4, 2015 18:07:29 GMT -5
I wouldn't trade any of the SPs now unless it was to get another topflight RP, or, in some kind of package deal to get another elite or near elite SP. But they could sign O'Day and I think have a pretty solid club.
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danr
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Post by danr on Dec 2, 2015 3:17:08 GMT -5
I love it. The Sox got the best closer and the best starter, We are going to see the Sox in the WS in 2016.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Nov 28, 2015 18:49:27 GMT -5
Does Price get the Sox into the post-season? I think he does. I suspect that Sox management also thinks he does. Can this team make it to post-season without him? Possibly, but not likely.
So what does this do for his worth? A great deal. He is worth tens of millions of dollars more if he is viewed as the key to the post-season. His agent knows that. The Sox management know that. It is just a matter of agreeing on a number. It will be big but it also will be worth it if he does get the Sox into the post-season this year and maybe a few times in coming seasons.
It is very hard to over-estimate the value of a post-season appearance and it gets even more valuable the further the team gets into the post-season. We're talking tens of millions of dollars of value at every level.
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danr
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Post by danr on Nov 18, 2015 17:58:40 GMT -5
I rated it a 3 mostly for the reasons I have previously stated - that I think Margot maybe overrated and Guerra has not shown enough yet to be rated as high as he is. I think Kimbrel was the best RP the Sox could get and they had to pay a good price for him, which they did.
There is another reason why I think this is going to turn out to be a good move. If all things are relatively equal when it comes to signing an ace, like Price, having Kimbrel and Koji in the bullpen will carry some weight.
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danr
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Post by danr on Nov 14, 2015 10:04:30 GMT -5
The reactions to this trade reflect some deep divisions in philosophy among us as well as some differences we have in the valuation of the traded prospects.
Some of us have been arguing for quite a while that the Sox needed a much stronger bullpen. I put a higher value on relief pitching than some others do. We've had a lengthy debate on this issue and we are not likely to agree. I pinpointed Kimbrel as the RP, next to Chapman, who I wanted the most. However, I did not want the Sox to trade for one year of Chapman. I think almost everyone here agreed on that. But three years of Kimbrel is much different.
I think the addition of Kimbrel - along with a couple more BP arms the Sox are likely to acquire probably through FA - dramatically improves the team. Other than Chapman he was, by far, the best RP available. Next to adding that elite starter, it was, in my opinion, the best move the Sox could make this offseason. I also think it was a deal that had to be done now because Kimbrel was going to be traded to somebody, and soon.
Now I don't think any of us knows whether the Sox paid too much. Time will tell about that. We've had some really bad experiences with trades for RPs in the past and generally I am not in favor of trading young players who have true potential for long term MLB careers for RPs whose futures always are risky. I think the risk is somewhat less with Kimbrel because he is just reaching his prime years and he has no history of injuries. But there is no denying the risk involved with this kind of trade.
When it comes to the price the Sox paid, I don't think it is as high as many others believe. While I respect the views of those with whom I have disagreed on this, I still have a somewhat lower estimate of Margot's future value than many others. I hope for his sake he proves me wrong, but I don't see in his record the kinds of stats future stars normally have, nor do I see in his manner of hitting a player who may become elite. The estimate in the piece just listed on this site about the traded players was that he might be a .275 hitter in the majors. That is good, but not great - and without a great deal of power not good enough to be a regular with the Sox.
Guerra has a long ways to go to be a major league regular. He has major league defensive skills but it is questionable whether he will hit well enough in the higher levels. Most of his HRs this year were hit in the first half of the season.
Logan Allen has the potential to reach the majors, but nothing I read about him convinces me that he would be a SP for the Sox or any contending team. His stuff will have to improve considerably. It might but there are many other pitchers in the system with at least similar prospects right now.
The Sox got a superstar closer who will make a huge difference for the next three years - barring injury - for players who were very unlikely to play for the Sox in the next three years, if ever. That doesn't look like a bad deal to me at this time and with the present needs of the Sox.
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danr
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Post by danr on Nov 12, 2015 19:18:04 GMT -5
Once upon a time the Sox traded a very good prospect - who now should be in the HOF and I don't know why he isn't - for a relief pitcher. The deal haunted that GM ever after and ruined his reputation. Chapman is a much better pitcher but I wouldn't give up Margot for one year of him. I would only do that kind of deal if an extension could be negotiated before the deal closed - and fat chance of that happening.
If the Sox want Chapman they should just wait a year. There are other good RPs out there.
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danr
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Post by danr on Nov 10, 2015 15:54:15 GMT -5
I don't get the interest in Chris Young. I don't see him improving the OF.
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danr
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Post by danr on Nov 7, 2015 18:03:48 GMT -5
KLaw's Top 50 FAs makes for some interesting reading. He thinks Cueto could either miss significant playing time in the future, or be an ace - and thus is risky. And he thinks Zimmerman already may be in decline.
Overall, he thinks this is the best FA class since he started ranking them in 2006.
His top 10: Heyward, Greinke, Price, Upton, Cespedes, Gordon, C. Davis, Fowler, Cueto, Kazmir.
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danr
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Post by danr on Nov 3, 2015 13:06:48 GMT -5
Why is Raudes not in the top 60?
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danr
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Post by danr on Oct 29, 2015 19:15:32 GMT -5
I know he is young, but the reason I am less enthusiastic about Margot than many is that his hitting has not been all that exceptional. He doesn't have much power. His slash line for four seasons in the minors is ,282/.350/,419/.774. That is good but not great, not elite level.
It has been my observation over many years that most elite major league hitters also were elite hitters in the minors. There certainly are some exceptions, and there are many examples of elite hitters in the minors who don't make it the majors. But in general, really good hitters hit at all levels.
Margot does hit the ball more than most but not hard enough, at least not yet. I don't doubt he will be a major league player but I am not sold on him being a star. Not yet. I certainly am open to the idea.
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danr
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Post by danr on Oct 29, 2015 8:41:19 GMT -5
I believe it is going to be too painful to obtain an ACE...would cost more than Margot...I think all we need is a 1A or a strong 2...I agree to hang on to the kids you mentioned, but to do that, you are bringing your trade chips from a Sale/Harvey/Gray to the next tier below. I think the ONLY prospect I'd give up is Margot, & even that I don't like....I think he'd get a decent 2 (with another smaller piece). With all the prospects who fail, I think you need to keep as many as you can....I mean EVERYONE had Lars Anderson pegged for greatness & he succeeded in the upper minors. Most of our prospects have only done well in low a ball. I didn't mean to say that Margot would bring an ace by himself. I suspect it would take at least one of the existing Sox SPs, Margot, one more really good prospect, maybe Guerra and maybe another position player or RP.
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danr
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Post by danr on Oct 28, 2015 9:11:45 GMT -5
A way of looking at this is to analyze where the team needs to, or should, make replacements in the next two to four years.
The pitching is the obvious area where improvement is needed now and improving is going to cost either a huge amount of money or the trade of some very promising players.
c - The Sox are in good shape here and I would not trade Swihart this year, maybe not at all. Much depends on how Vazquez recovers. No really good minor league prospects at this position, at least none that have emerged yet.
1B - Can Hanley handle it? Is Shaw a good alternative? Sam Travis is the only real 1B prospect in the upper minors. I am dubious of Hanley, fairly high on Shaw and Travis. If Hanley is traded - and I hope he is - I would take a risk here with Shaw because there probably aren't any really good 1Bs available as FAs, or in trades.
2B - Pedroia is there as long as he plays reasonably well.
3B - Panda has to make a substantial recovery or he will have to be replaced. One of either Moncada, Devers or Chavis has to be kept. And another might be a future 1B. Moncada might be an OF. It would be my preference not to trade any of them this year unless one of those positions, 3B, 1B, or OF, is filled by a trade for a premium player.
SS - Bogaerts there until he hits FA. Some good, but not great, SS prospects in Marrero, Hernandez and Dubon in upper levels, outstanding prospect in Guerra, who looks like one of the best bets for trading, along with one of the other three.
OF - Betts is an untouchable as far as I am concerned. I also love JBJ as the CF and would be reluctant to trade him, but not entirely opposed to it. Castillo is OK, but in another year either Margot or Benintendi will be preferable, I think. I would keep Benintendi and trade Margot. I am not nearly as high on Margot as many on the board and many in the baseball community. His value is fairly high and I would cash it in to get an ace starter.
SPs - The only untouchables for me are Rodriguez, Espinoza and Kopech. An ace has to be acquired and I hope a really good number 2 also is acquired. I would keep either Johnson or Owens. Any of the existing SPs, other than Rodriguez, should be available for trade. I have been persuaded that Buchholz's option should be picked up - assuming decent medicals - but I would trade him if decent value could be received, or as part of a big deal for an ace, or in a deal for a solid number 2.
BP - Major rework needed. The only one I wouldn't trade, mostly because his value to the Sox is far higher than what he might bring in a trade, is Koji.
Thus, my conclusion is that players who I think should not be traded are Swihart, Shaw, Pedroia, Bogaerts, Betts, JBJ, Benintendi, Devers, Moncada, Chavis, Espinoza, Rodriguez, Kopech, one of either Owens or Johnson, and Koji. The list could be shortened if a premium position player was acquired.
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danr
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Post by danr on Oct 23, 2015 10:38:52 GMT -5
I don't know the answer to this and I am curious. Is a former catcher likely to be a better in-game manager than someone who either didn't play, or played another position? It occurred to me that it is possible because the skills necessary to be a good catcher include in-game management.
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