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danr
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Post by danr on Oct 22, 2015 19:34:10 GMT -5
The way I look at building a team is not much based on projected WAR, which I doubt any good GM relies on much, either. It would be based on an analysis of each position on the team and when a replacement for each is likely to be needed. That certainly would include a determination of what existing players needed to be replaced now.
Then, who in the minors are the most likely replacements? Will at least one of them be ready when the replacement is needed? And what is a reasonable projection for that prospect? That would give me a good idea of who will have to be replaced by a trade or FA acquisition and when it is most likely to have to occur.
Obviously, the possibilities of injuries, failure to develop, etc. have to be factored into the analysis.
WAR is a useful comparative tool for present analysis. What positions currently are not producing much of it? Can they be upgraded? An analysis also has to be done of what the market is, what players may be available, and at what cost?
With that kind of analysis done, a plan can be developed for what moves are likely to be needed at various points. It has to be a dynamic plan that changes every time something major occurs to any of the players, or projections, or with potential acquisitions. The plan also has to be opportunistic, being able to take advantage of something that wasn't expected - like a Mookie Betts developing so fast, or a very desirable player suddenly becoming available.
It is not as simple as counting up the WAR and replaced a 0 with a 5. It is being in a position to make changes when they are needed and having the resources to make those changes. So, you don't gut the farm system. You keep enough of the top players so there always is someone available to make a deal if one is needed. You also cut your losses as fast as possible. You don't keep playing a player who isn't performing, and isn't likely to improve, regardless of his salary.
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danr
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Post by danr on Oct 12, 2015 10:03:47 GMT -5
This from the Harvard Business Review today: Body Fat Makes You a Target of Incivility at Work
"The more body fat an employee carries, the greater the chances he or she will experience discourteous workplace behaviors such as interrupting, failing to return greetings, and not refilling printer paper, according to a team led by Katherine A. Sliter of Bowling Green State University. For example, in one study, overweight people reported higher levels of such forms of incivility than their healthy-weight peers (2.48 versus 1.53 on a 1-to-5 scale). Obesity may be “one of the last legally and socially acceptable” targets of workplace discrimination, the researchers say.
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danr
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Post by danr on Oct 9, 2015 12:39:52 GMT -5
This thread is a terrific read. Many good ideas. Lots of intelligent thought.
I am not satisfied with the present SP staff. There is this saying that insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. The Sox have to get an ace, and maybe two of them.
The pitcher with the best stuff is Buchholz, but he cannot be counted on. And if he goes down, the entire pitching staff goes down a notch or two. Hill also is very risky.
Porcello and Kelly are unpredictable. Kelly probably would be a better RP than starter but he does not want to be a RP. He is very definite about that. I think Porcello will do better next year - a solid number 3. Miley is very reliable and predictable but not outstanding, a solid number 5. Rodriguez is next to Buchholz with his stuff and may pass him next season. But he is very young and it is too risky to make him the ace. I like Owens a lot, and I think he will do better next year, but not enough better to be the ace. Johnson now is a wild card concerning durability and he hasn't had a chance yet to show that he is a major league starter. I think that he will be one, but in terms of effectiveness about like Miley. Wright is, at best, a number 5, and he makes life miserable for the catchers.
Price is my first choice for all the obvious reasons. I think Greinke will stay with the Dodgers. I am concerned about Cueto and would want to know a lot more than I possibly can to advocate for him. I'm not big on Zimmerman and he will cost a draft choice. If Price cannot be signed, then it becomes much more likely that it will take a big trade to get an ace. The Sox have the resources to make such a trade and I think that they will use them to do so, if they have to.
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danr
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Post by danr on Oct 9, 2015 10:36:17 GMT -5
Where does the belief that Shaw cannot play 3B very well come from? I listened to nearly every game this year and when he was at third the announcers, who I think are pretty good, both said he played 3B very well. A number of times he was said to have made exceptional plays.
He has good hands, a good arm, and good instincts. What he may lack is range but some of that can be made up for with positioning.
I'm not saying he should be the 3B. I like him better at 1B. But I think he is viable defensively as the backup for 3B and occasional starter there. And, of course, he hit better than Sandoval. Whether he will do that next year is anyone's guess, but my guess is that he will.
I doubt Sam Travis will be ready next year, except maybe for a late season call-up. Just as it is a big jump from A+ to AA, it is at least as big a jump from AA to AAA. Travis made the first jump quite well. The next one will be a better test.
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danr
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Post by danr on Oct 7, 2015 12:42:09 GMT -5
I used myself as an example. And I didn't mean that what I am doing either would work or not work for others. It will work for some and not for others. Human body chemistry and metabolism are very individualistic. I happen to be super-sensitive to carbs. Not everyone is.
I am much older than Sandoval - than of most folks BTW - and weight does not come off easily. However, I made it my top priority and it didn't have a lot of competition. I can tell you it gets tougher and tougher and if the diet isn't tolerable, it will become impossible to stay on it. You hit spots where the body resists. I've had periods of two to three weeks when not an ounce came off - and then I would drop a few. But if the drop was more than three or four lbs. one or two would come right back. Regardless of the diet, gradual weight loss is what most doctors and nutritionists say is the best way to lose and to keep off weight. They all oppose binge dieting.
Diets always seem to be faddish. A few years ago there was the cabbage soup diet. For a week all a person would consume was cabbage soup at every meal and nothing else. And it was a vegetarian low fat cabbage soup. Weight losses of more than 10 lbs often resulted. However, within a short period of time the weight came back - and in many cases more weight came back than was lost. Health problems also were reported.
You may recall a few years ago when people - and the team - got on Ortiz for his weight. He lost a lot of weight in one off season and then was a wreck in ST. He was weak and it took him a while to recover.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Oct 6, 2015 7:57:08 GMT -5
I think Eric is a might too conservative with the changes that are likely to occur with the Sox, but I am just speculating. I have no idea what Dombrowski will do but I think, based on his past record, that there will be more changes in the roster than Eric proposes. Most of the changes I think will be with the pitching.
I don't think having high injury-risk Buchholz and Hill in the rotation is a good idea. I suspect there will be two additions to the top of the rotation. I think there will be a more significant shakeup to the bullpen, and there should be. That bullpen on Eric's list still is mediocre. They have to do better.
I'm not voting on the poll on whether Hanley or Pablo will be traded because I don't know how that can be done, although I certainly am in favor of trading Hanley. I still think Pablo's season was an aberration and that he will be better next year.
On that subject, I don't believe the Sox told him to lose 60-80 lbs. by ST. Someone had to have made that up. It's virtually impossible to lose that kind of weight in any healthy way in that short a period of time. Relative to our heights - I'm several inches shorter than he is - at the beginning of this year I probably was as overweight as he is. I've lost more than 40 lbs and much of the fat is gone but it has taken nine months to do it. I prepare almost all my own food, much of it from scratch. I haven't eaten in restaurants this year and generally I don't eat prepared foods. I control the ingredients in my food to keep the carbs and calories down but the nutrition high. I also exercise. Even with all that a pound a week is about as much as I can lose and keep it off. If I had a regular job or traveled a lot, this diet would be nearly impossible to follow. I know I couldn't stick to it in the past when I did have a job and traveled a great deal.
Pablo might be able to lose 20 lbs. and he should, but that is about as much as anyone can reasonably expect.
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danr
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Post by danr on Oct 3, 2015 9:24:37 GMT -5
I don't think judgments can be made on player performances at this point. The season is over and most of them probably are exhausted.
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danr
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Post by danr on Oct 1, 2015 17:29:16 GMT -5
One of the pitchers - I can't remember which one -said that when Farrell was managing pitchers were told to pitch to the weaknesses of batters. After Lovullo took over pitchers were told to pitch to their strengths. If that is true, then it explains very well why the pitching improved.
Most successful people - not just ballplayers - play to their strengths and that, by itself, minimizes their weaknesses. We used to argue with some of our daughter's teachers when they obsessed about her weaknesses. We said focus on her strengths, and when they did, she did much better and had more confidence. The Sox pitchers generally are throwing with more confidence and that has made them better.
If it was Farrell's idea to throw to batter's weaknesses - and if he still believes it when he comes back - his tenure might not be very long. It's a truly bad idea.
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danr
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Post by danr on Oct 1, 2015 17:13:43 GMT -5
My ideal would be to trade both Miley and Buchholz along with some prospects to get one ace starter and a couple of terrific RPs and then sign another ace FA. The rotation then would be ace, ace, Porcello, Rodriguez and one of Hill, Kelly or Owens.
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danr
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Post by danr on Oct 1, 2015 10:12:44 GMT -5
I don't think it makes a lot of sense to try to acquire an outfielder to replace Castillo. If the Sox don't trade Margot, he and Benintendi may be close to MLB ready by 2017. That would be the time to make a change.
Better to use resources to upgrade the pitching.
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danr
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Post by danr on Sept 29, 2015 19:59:41 GMT -5
Joe Castigleone said during the game tonight that JBJ is the best defensive outfielder he has ever seen play in person. He said JBJ is in the same class as Willie Mays.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Sept 28, 2015 10:55:08 GMT -5
The performance of the Sox since July 31, 29-22, certainly is encouraging for next year. However, some of that record is due to the sensational streaks that both JBJ and Travis Shaw had and both have come to earth. Some of this may be the result of pitchers adjusting and some of it may be fatigue. Castillo also is showing some signs of fatigue in his batting.
However, I think it reasonable to say that most of the starting lineup for the beginning of next season is on the team now. Shaw may not be a starter next year but it seems likely he will be on the team since he can back up both Sandoval and Ramirez - assuming both still are with the Sox next year, which may not be a really good assumption.
Based on what recently has been said, or reported, as well as what Dombrowski did with Detroit, I think the most likely thing that will happen in the off season is the acquisition of an ace starter, maybe two. The second most likely thing is that a couple of really good RPs will be acquired. I don't think the Sox will shy away from paying what it will take to get a top starter even if it exceeds the salary cap.
I think it is possible they could acquire, or sign, a slugger, either an outfielder or a 1B. If they did that they probably already would have done some kind of deal, or deals, that shed them of either Ramirez or Sandoval or both. I think a couple of the existing starters could go in deals as well.
Most of the elite minor leaguers will stay but I could see Margot and Guerra departing.
All speculation, of course.
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danr
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Post by danr on Sept 28, 2015 9:52:57 GMT -5
Since July 31 the Sox are 29-22. That winning percentage applied to a whole season would yield a 92-70 record.
Through July 31 the Sox had scored 432 runs, an average of 4.1 per game. Since July 31 they have scored 288 runs, an average of 5.6 per game.
Through July 31 the Sox had allowed 500 runs, an average of 4.8 per game. Since July 31 they have allowed 225 runs, an average of 4.4 per game.
They have reduced their negative run differential to -5.
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danr
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Post by danr on Sept 27, 2015 14:22:10 GMT -5
Owens through six innings today threw one FB at 92, one at 91 and rest and 90 or 89, mixing pitches very well with very good command.
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danr
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Post by danr on Sept 22, 2015 9:11:23 GMT -5
The Red Sox are not going to trade Pedroia. He will be the face of the franchise after Ortiz because of the way he plays the game. Later it will be one of the youngsters. He is the transition, but he also is the leader of this band.
Furthermore, when the Sox get into trade discussions Pedroia is not to be the player other teams focus on. They will want one or more of the top prospects, depending on what the deal involves.
I have no idea what Dombrowski will do, but seeing how this team has come together, I think he should leave the position players in place. The only positions where there are questions are first and third. There really are no good options for trades for 3Bs. Shaw presents a possible alternative, at least a pretty decent backup.
Hanley is going to get a shot at 1B. Shaw can be the backup. If Ortiz retires in 2017 Hanley can shift to DH. By then someone from the minors or Shaw can take over 1B.
The starting pitching has improved but it is not good enough to win a world championship. I still would try to add two top of the rotation starters, one by trade, one FA and Price would be my prime target. There are a number of outstanding SPs who could be acquired by trade.
Then I would acquire at least two top RPs and probably a good mid to late innings man.
The starting pitcher deal probably would involve giving up a top prospect, a decent prospect and one of the existing starters.
The RP deals probably would be one for one, maybe in one case, a Sox starter, in others maybe some prospects. There also will be some FA possibilities.
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danr
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Post by danr on Sept 18, 2015 11:04:00 GMT -5
Truly bad luck for Johnson having that injury. He could have gotten a good tryout.
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danr
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Post by danr on Sept 18, 2015 9:35:46 GMT -5
Mike Napoli seems to have recovered his batting stroke. Since August 16 he is 16 for 47 (.340) with 4 HRs. In the sweep of Houston he was 4 for 9 with a HR and 3 RBIs. Good for Mike.
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danr
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Post by danr on Sept 13, 2015 14:32:28 GMT -5
And now that I see the lineup, I understand.
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danr
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Post by danr on Sept 13, 2015 14:31:06 GMT -5
I just tuned in. Another lesson in how life is not fair. Hill deserved a run or two.
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danr
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Post by danr on Sept 13, 2015 8:45:10 GMT -5
I've been arguing all season that the fact that Sandoval is performing below his norm is not the reason the Sox had a poor season. And replacing him will have virtually no beneficial impact unless a truly terrific 3B could be found. And that really isn't possible right now. The evidence for my argument is that the team has done better the last few weeks despite the fact that he has not.
It would be a waste of resources to try to replace him now. He is adequate and I think the odds are reasonable that he will play better next year. But even if he doesn't it won't matter enough to be a problem needing a solution.
The primary problem needing a solution is obvious: the pitching. Even though the starters have been doing somewhat better, the Sox still have to acquire at least one top of the rotation guy. And the bullpen has to be rebuilt with better arms.
It still is possible that 1B will be a problem but it seems less likely than it did a few weeks ago.
By the end of next season we will have a much better idea who will be the Sox 3B in 2017 and beyond and it will be someone the Sox already have. The same may be true for 1B.
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danr
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Post by danr on Sept 13, 2015 8:20:20 GMT -5
Much the same argument for reliability could be made for every position, although SS probably is the most important. But recall what was going on earlier in the season when Hanley was butchering LF. It was obvious that it was demoralizing the pitchers to see what should have been routine outs turning into hits, sometimes extra base hits.
That had to be one of the factors in the collapse of the pitching early on. And as evidence of that, since he stopped playing LF, the pitching has improved, especially the starting pitching. Clearly, most of that is due to the pitchers just pitching better, but balls hit to the OF that should be caught now are being caught.
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danr
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Post by danr on Sept 11, 2015 15:01:12 GMT -5
He has had some control problems. His fastball is 93-94. Generally pitched well in the minors and had a decent half season in 2014 for the Rangers. Only pitched 11 innings for the Rangers this year.
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danr
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Post by danr on Sept 11, 2015 14:54:40 GMT -5
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danr
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Post by danr on Sept 10, 2015 9:56:42 GMT -5
There is a word missing in the second sentence of the story today about the scouting changes. I think it should have read x x x has been named x x x. When I first read that I thought he was being moved to another job!
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danr
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Post by danr on Sept 9, 2015 9:53:34 GMT -5
Zimmerman is the worst of the big name FAs. He is not the ace the Sox need. Kimbrell probably can be had for less than what you propose. Price and Cueto do not cost draft picks although there certainly have to be questions about Cueto.
I agree that Swihart should not be traded for the reasons stated in an earlier post above.
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