SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Recent Posts
danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
|
Post by danr on Sept 9, 2015 9:47:25 GMT -5
Last night's game turned out just as I envision the rest of the season: we get a quality start from one of our SPs, bullpen gets blamed for the loss, and we pick up ground in the 2016 sweepstakes. Actually it was just one relief pitcher who should be blamed. The bullpen overall performed very well, unusually so. Holding Toronto to one run for nine innings is an achievement.
|
|
danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
|
Post by danr on Sept 8, 2015 12:00:54 GMT -5
It is sort of hard to believe but the Washington Nationals are further behind in the National League Wild Card race than the Red Sox are in the American League.
|
|
danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
|
Post by danr on Sept 8, 2015 9:44:45 GMT -5
Swihart has hit .354 since July 20. If he continues to hit this well the rest of the season I don't believe the Sox will trade him. And I sure hope they don't. They can get an ace SP FA. They don't need to trade him.
I was a big fan of Vazquez when he was coming up but it would a serious risk to assume he will be able to play every day and hit reasonably well at the beginning of next season. Matt Wieters has played in only 61 games for the Orioles this year and has had less power than he did before his surgery. I don't know how his defense has been. Most players need time to recover from a year's layoff.
The smart thing to do, I believe, is start Vazquez at Pawtucket and give him some time get back into the swing of things, literally. If he shows he is fully recovered, then the Sox have a wonderful problem. If they trade Swihart and Vazquez doesn't come back strong, then the Sox have a horrible problem.
I don't think that chance is worth taking, nor does it have to be taken.
|
|
danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
|
Post by danr on Sept 7, 2015 23:31:22 GMT -5
Between Salem and Portland, Travis hit 32 2Bs, 6 3Bs and 9 HRs. He stole 19 bases. IN 548 PAs he struck out 77 times and walked 59 times. His OPS at Salem was .845 and it was .821 at Portland. His stats are among the best in the entire system. He should be at Pawtucket next year. Who else is going to play 1B there?
|
|
danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
|
Post by danr on Sept 7, 2015 23:24:58 GMT -5
In his last 22 games Bradley has hit .446 with 7 HRs and 13 2Bs.
|
|
danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
|
Post by danr on Sept 7, 2015 23:22:11 GMT -5
Jonathan, thank you so much for the tremendous job you did. I am about to go into withdrawal.
|
|
danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
|
Post by danr on Sept 7, 2015 13:48:54 GMT -5
It appears that Margot may have figured out AA. Counting his 2 for 4 so far today, he had hit .419 in his last 11 games.
Also is Cuevas a call up candidate? He seems to be trying to become one.
|
|
danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
|
Post by danr on Sept 7, 2015 12:57:09 GMT -5
I believe it is somewhat misleading to say that Sandoval has been consistently declining in his hitting. He actually was fairly consistent from 2012 through 2014. 2011, his best year, obviously was an outlier. Also, he had far fewer PAs in 2011 and 2012 than he did in 2013 and 2014. His OPS and OPS+ declined a little, from .789 to .739 but his PAs increased substantially and so did his total bases. He hit almost the same number of doubles, triples and HRs each year.
Sandoval is the classic streak hitter. Looking through the game logs on baseballreference.com you can see how he has streaks of multiple hit games and then streaks when he doesn't hit at all.
He had a very strange year in 2014. On May 6 he was hitting .167. He hit .306 the rest of the year and had a huge post season. Remarkably this season has been almost the mirror opposite of last year. On May 10 he was hitting .306. Since then he has hit .236. However, on May 19 he was hit on the knee with a pitch and didn't play for several games and the knee bothered him for quite a while. It may still be bothering him. He has been hit with pitches on the hand and the arm since then. One of the commentators in the ESPN game last week said he was playing with a painful leg - I think the right leg - and it was affecting his swing. I think it is reasonable to assume that the injuries he has suffered this year may have prevented him from having the good hitting streaks he normally might have had.
There is no sign that his swing has slowed down. He has clobbered some pitches this year. He doesn't seem to have a problem with any particular pitch. He does seem to have gotten over anxious and is swinging at even more balls out of the strike zone than normal for him - and he always has been a free swinger. And the fact that he has had some hitting streaks this season is evidence that he isn't declining.
I think his less than normal performance this year is most likely due to a combination of the effects of the injuries and the anxiousness he no doubt has felt about his performance and the intense pressure of playing for the Sox. I've spent a fair amount of time in both Boston and San Francisco and I love both, but Boston is far, far, more intense.
Thus, I think there is a reasonable chance that he will be better next year.
|
|
danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
|
Post by danr on Sept 7, 2015 11:58:15 GMT -5
Thanks Telson. That post told me more than I ever knew and explained so much. I'm awed. And tonyc is right. Every scout should read that post.
|
|
danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
|
Post by danr on Sept 7, 2015 11:47:36 GMT -5
Not that is matters much now but wouldn't it make more sense to switch Sandoval and Bradley in the lineup?
|
|
danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
|
Post by danr on Sept 5, 2015 19:09:08 GMT -5
I think larrycook meant Kimbrel. I think Kimbrel would be a good acquisition. I'd like to see two of his quality added to the BP. I don't think one is enough and something always happens to RPs. It makes sense to go long there but Buchholz is not the answer.
Not only will the Sox not put Buchholz in the bullpen, he probably is not a relief pitcher. I think he would be hurt very quickly and on the DL. He doesn't exactly have a rubber arm.
Why is it assumed that Greinke will opt out of his deal? It seems everyone believes that, but it doesn't make sense. He is getting $147 million over six years with three years left after this year. That's an average of $24.75M a year but I don't know how much he is actually getting each year of the deal. Still, he's going to be 32. He is the oldest of really good pitchers who will, or could be, FAs. He is pitching for a team nearly guaranteed to be in the post season almost every year. Who is going to give him a contract that pays much more than what he is getting? And, especially, a deal that would have to go well past the age of 35? The Dodgers might, to keep him, but I can't see anyone else doing it. Of course, I'm probably wrong. There is a lot of money in baseball today. So, I'll say the Red Sox won't do it.
In descending order of current fWAR, these are pitchers who either will be FAs or often are rumored to be on the Sox radar. (Of course that radar just changed and there hasn't been enough time yet for new radar rumors to start). But those here probably are on the radar. Their age next season is in brackets with their current fWAR and the highest previous fWAR they have had and the year they had it. Every one of these pitchers is pitching close to or above his best fWAR year except for Zimmerman, Greinke, and Cueto, and every best fWAR year for every pitcher is either this season or 2014 with the exception of Cueto who had the same highest fWAR in 2012 and 2014 and Greinke whose best fWAR was in 2009.
The only pitchers on this list I would not pursue are Greinke and Zimmerman.
The real question now is with the resurgence of Kelly, Porcello and Miley, and the performance of Rodriguez, will the Sox settle for the addition of just one of them? Or will they trade one or more of the existing starters and add two of them, one by trade and the other a FA? That's still what I would do, but if it was a choice of adding two of these but only one top RP, then I would add only one of these and get two top RPs. Best move would be to get two of each.
Sale (27, 6.2, 5.2 2014) **Grienke (32, 5.4, 8.6 (2009) *Price (31, 5.2, 6.1, 2014) Carrasco (29, 4.1, 3.2, 2014) *Cueto (30, 3.9, 4.7 2012 and 2014) Ross (29, 3.8, 3.2 2014) Gray (26, 3.7, 3.1 2014) *Zimmerman (30, 2.9, 5.3 2014)
*FA ** Has opt out in his contract
|
|
danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
|
Post by danr on Sept 5, 2015 17:06:02 GMT -5
The box shows those runs as earned runs, but two of them scored on errors.
|
|
danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
|
Post by danr on Sept 3, 2015 12:23:12 GMT -5
I can't tell if it is distortion in the video or not but he looks bigger in the videos than he he said to be. Maybe he has grown some...
|
|
danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
|
Post by danr on Sept 3, 2015 12:16:06 GMT -5
Sorry for beating a dead horse, but am I the only one who prefers Archer to Gray/Carrasco? I love what he brings to the table in terms of swing and miss stuff. More fly balls and less GB than Gray, but with our outfield, that's mitigatable. With Sandoval at 3B (and Hanley at 1B), GBs may sting us next year. Also Archer's contract is incredibly team friendly. I agree. Archer is on his way to being one of top five pitchers in baseball, if he is not there already. Tampa needs rebuilding and the Sox have the players to do a deal, assuming that Tampa is not outrageous and they usually aren't. But it would be an expensive deal in terms of talent given up.
|
|
danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
|
Post by danr on Sept 3, 2015 8:08:31 GMT -5
Can you imagine the reaction if Swihart is traded and becomes an All-Star, which seems increasingly likely, and Vazquez hurts his arm again, or his throwing is not the same? That isn't a risk I would want to take. Catcher probably is the weakest position in the Sox minor league system. There aren't any good options if Swihart is gone and Vazquez isn't the same.
|
|
danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
|
Post by danr on Sept 3, 2015 7:51:55 GMT -5
The problem I have with Buchholz is that he can't pitch a full season. When he is pitching and is healthy he is so good that when he goes down he leaves a huge hole in the rotation that is almost impossible to fill adequately in the middle of a season. It's the same as losing a star player at any position when there isn't anyone nearly comparable to take his place. It was even worse this year because all the other pitchers were struggling.
The logical kind of deal that includes Buchholz is a deal for another good pitcher. Maybe it could be for a top RP as well. Unless they can find a better 3B or 1B option than they players they have now, which seems highly unlikely, I think the post season acquisition efforts will be mostly to improve the pitching.
I read last night that Buchholz is throwing now and may get into a game for an inning or so. If he does and he looks OK, then the Sox no doubt will pick up his option.
|
|
danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
|
Post by danr on Sept 3, 2015 7:40:12 GMT -5
What about Cuevas? I haven't read much about him. Could he be a call up possibility? According to a piece on WEEI, the Sox wanted to go to a six man rotation but don't have a sixth starter because of injuries.
|
|
danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
|
Post by danr on Sept 2, 2015 19:56:43 GMT -5
I am not in favor of picking up Buchholz's option, but I think Amfox1 has laid out the most probable scenario for the off-season. The only part of it I question is trading Buchholz. With him shut down for the season questions about his health are going to linger until spring training.
If I thought he really could be traded - in a deal that yielded a top young pitcher - then I would change my mind about picking up his option.
|
|
danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
|
Post by danr on Sept 1, 2015 13:31:30 GMT -5
Mookie does act independently quite frequently.
|
|
danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
|
Post by danr on Sept 1, 2015 9:11:16 GMT -5
Pawtucket now has only one position player on the bench, a catcher.
|
|
danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
|
Post by danr on Sept 1, 2015 9:08:56 GMT -5
It makes sense to bring him up and see if he has anything left. They have to do something with him. If he does have anything left, they will send him somewhere during the off season, paying part of his remaining salary, and taking just about anything they can get in return. It makes no sense to keep him at Pawtucket for another season.
|
|
danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
|
Post by danr on Sept 1, 2015 9:00:22 GMT -5
I heard something on one of the pre-game radio shows a couple of nights ago that Wright still is experiencing some dizziness and headaches. Iy appears this concussion was worse than originally thought.
|
|
danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
|
Post by danr on Aug 31, 2015 23:22:34 GMT -5
Johnny Gomes gets to play in the post-season again. KC just acquired him from Atlanta.
|
|
danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
|
Post by danr on Aug 31, 2015 17:52:50 GMT -5
I've been following Keith Law a lot over many years now as have you all. To me, he is wrong so often it is like a coin flip. I don't even consider his opinion all that important any more. Nothing against him other than him being wrong, a lot. Almost everyone is wrong a lot. Go through the old prospect books and ratings lists. It doesn't matter who did them, a good share of the time they were wrong. Callis seems to be the best as far as I can tell. I like Law because he usually gives pretty good reasons for his ratings or his doubts, and he isn't reluctant to admit when he is wrong.
|
|
danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
|
Post by danr on Aug 31, 2015 17:09:31 GMT -5
I am a bit of a doubter of Margot but not significantly yet. It has been my observation over a long period of time that the players who become major league stars usually hit well at every level regardless of their ages. However, one of the things that has changed is that we're getting younger players with more experience, the Latin American players who have been playing all year round since they could hold a bat. That also is happening here more and more. Today I watched a live stream of my 13-year old grand nephew playing 3B for a traveling team competing in a tournament in Cooperstown. He plays almost all year round now with indoor facilities they have in the Buffalo area. One of the players from his team was drafted this year in the 4th round by the Orioles.
Consequently, I have adjusted my belief a little, leaving room for these really young fellows to grow up some.
|
|
|