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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 31, 2015 16:59:17 GMT -5
Shaw also was screwed up for much of the time he was at AAA, and says so. If that is what Skorupa is basing his rating on, then his rating may be out of date. Shaw corrected a problem and began to hit significantly better at Pawtucket and he has not been showing those weaknesses recently, so far as know. Pitchers will work on trying to find weaknesses and he still may have them. However, he seems like the kind of player who will make adjustments when that happens.
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 31, 2015 14:28:55 GMT -5
If you don't want to use WAR then come up with something other than "I think relief pitchers are just as valuable as starting pitchers" as your argument. WAR is the stat that was invented so you could actually compare them. And it makes total sense that an average #3 starting pitcher is worth more than the best relief pitcher in the league. That's why they get paid almost twice as much. Hell, #5 pitchers get as much as all but the best closers. Papelbon got moved to closer only because he couldn't hack it as a starter. Eckersly said the same thing earlier this year during a broadcast. That is a fair point. Obviously, I am arguing that good RPs may be worth more than they are getting and/or WAR undervalues them. I would much rather have a Chapman than a Miley and I would be willing to pay Chapman more. I think the prevailing views have not caught up with the reality and effects of pitch counts limiting starters to five or six innings a good deal of the time. The average innings pitched by all the Sox starters is about 5 2/3.
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 31, 2015 13:23:02 GMT -5
First of all, I misread Buchholz's fWAR. It was 3.1 and he does show up in their starting pitcher rankings if 100 IPs is used at 22nd.
I think this debate is very interesting because it deals with some fundamental approaches to the game and to player valuation.
The point about the games lost by the Sox when Buchholz pitched is quite valid. He had a stretch that was truly sensational and he should have won more games than he did. He was pitching his very best of the year just before he got hurt. If he had not gotten hurt and had kept pitching that way, he probably would have been a Cy Young candidate. However, he didn't and we still don't know if he is going to be pitching next year. It was interesting that Dombrowski said he was going to wait for the medical reports on Buchholz before deciding whether to pick up the option. That technique that was used on him has had mixed results, some terrific and some ending with surgery.
I am not disputing that when he is pitching and not injured Buchholz is a great pitcher. My argument here is that having a whole season of a great relief pitcher added to the existing BP would have resulted in more wins than Buchholz won. It is just my opinion and obviously can be argued because there are so many variables.
ADDING THIS: And my main point was that the money Buchholz would get if his option were exercised I would prefer to spend on a top RP. The Sox also still would need to get a top of the rotation starter and at least one other good RP.
If you just use the fWAR calculations and Robertson replaced the worst RP in the bullpen, which is Ogando with a -1.0 WAR, the BP's fWAR would have been 1.9 instead of -1.0. And if Andrew Miller had been retained instead of Breslow (the second worst RP in terms of fWAR), the Sox BP fWAR would be 3.3, slightly 3.9, somewhat higher than Buchholz's.
I'm still holding to my position that it is not right to compare the fWARs of RPs and SPs. But that little calculation does show the impact on fWAR of just two changes in the BP, two changes that were not beyond possibility last year when both Robertson and Miller were free agents.
In the course of doing these various bits of analysis I compiled some other stats that I think are interesting:
Average innings per start: Buchholz 6.3 Miley 5.9 Porcell 5.8 Owens 5.8 Rodriguez 5.75 Kelly 5.5 Masterson 4.8
Innings pitched by starters: 747 by relief pitchers: 410
Average innings pitched per relief appearance: 1.1
That one inning per appearance stat is very interesting because it very close to what almost every RP has done. Of course, often an RP only pitches to one or two batters in one appearance and might pitch more than an inning in another. But overall, there aren't any Mike Timlin or Bob Stanley types among this gang.
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 31, 2015 12:34:35 GMT -5
The WAR comparisons don't work when you mix starters and RPs. The RPs always have lower WARs but I confess I don't know why. You cannot tell me that Chapman with a fWAR of 2.1 is worth less than Buchholz and that you would prefer to have Buchholz. Robertson is the fourth highest rated RP in fWAR. Buchholz is the 19th rated starter. However, he doesn't show up in the fangraphs list of starters and I don't know why. I tried changing the filters to account for his lower innings pitched but that didn't work. Still, when he is looked at separately he has a fWAR of 3.5. Now, compare the actual records. I'm not going to use ERAs because they really can't be reasonably compared between starters and relievers and I think many of us now don't put as much weight on them as we once did. Buchholz started 18 games and made no relief appearances. He pitched 113 innings, won 7 and lost 7. He had a FIP of 2.67 and an xFIP of 3.27. Robertson has appeared in 48 games, all in relief, and has pitched 52 innings. He has won 6 games and lost 3. He has saved 27, which is less than normal for him, but then he is pitching for a bad team. His FIP is 2.09 and his xFIP is 2.17. All other things being equal, if Robertson had been pitching for the Sox instead of Buchholz, don't you think the team record would be better? How many games have been lost by the bullpen this year? A lot more than won by Buchholz. I think just the addition of one RP of Robertson's quality could have made the Sox a .500 team. And now seeing how much better the team has become, I wonder where the team would be in the standings today if the Sox had gone out and fixed the bullpen when its weaknesses became so obvious early in the season? Because they pitch significantly less innings. It's like a batter who gets 350 plate appearances compared to a batter with 600 plate appearances. To make it even more simple, compare Pedroia at 75 games to Pedroia at 150 games. He has 1.8 fWAR and if he played 150 games at the same level, he'd have 3.6 fWAR. This is not a valid comparison. I disagree with it for more or less the same reasons stated above.
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 31, 2015 12:32:04 GMT -5
I am not convinced of the value of WAR calculations for pitchers. It this case, they don't pass the smell test. Think about the impact on the Sox next year of having a couple or three of really superior RPs, like - but not necessarily - Robertson. But I think he, alone, would have a bigger positive impact on the team than Buchholz ever will. As we watch this team as now constructed it is much different from what we saw earlier in the year and very promising for next year. The major fixes needed now are in the pitching - a top of the rotation stopper and almost a complete rebuild of the bullpen. Buchholz had about as much value this year as Koji in 2013. It's because he pitched 113.1 innings, whereas Koji only pitched 74.1 and had ridiculous stats. Believe what you want to believe about WAR, but starters are always much more valuable than relievers because they pitch a lot more innings as long as their stats are similar. It makes sense. Every inning is relatively equal in importance over the course of a season.I disagree with this. RPs often pitch in much higher leverage situations, coming into games with runners on base, etc. They have much less room for mistakes. I think a stat worth adding to the key stats for RPs is hits allowed. An RP often is in a situation where allowing one hit changes the complexion, if not the outcome, of the game but is not reflected in his ERA, won-lost or other stats. Starting pitchers do not face this kind of pressure from the moment they enter the game.
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 31, 2015 12:23:42 GMT -5
The WAR comparisons don't work when you mix starters and RPs. The RPs always have lower WARs but I confess I don't know why. You cannot tell me that Chapman with a fWAR of 2.1 is worth less than Buchholz and that you would prefer to have Buchholz.
Robertson is the fourth highest rated RP in fWAR. Buchholz is the 19th rated starter. However, he doesn't show up in the fangraphs list of starters and I don't know why. I tried changing the filters to account for his lower innings pitched but that didn't work. Still, when he is looked at separately he has a fWAR of 3.5.
Now, compare the actual records. I'm not going to use ERAs because they really can't be reasonably compared between starters and relievers and I think many of us now don't put as much weight on them as we once did.
Buchholz started 18 games and made no relief appearances. He pitched 113 innings, won 7 and lost 7. He had a FIP of 2.67 and an xFIP of 3.27.
Robertson has appeared in 48 games, all in relief, and has pitched 52 innings. He has won 6 games and lost 3. He has saved 27, which is less than normal for him, but then he is pitching for a bad team. His FIP is 2.09 and his xFIP is 2.17.
All other things being equal, if Robertson had been pitching for the Sox instead of Buchholz, don't you think the team record would be better? How many games have been lost by the bullpen this year? A lot more than won by Buchholz. I think just the addition of one RP of Robertson's quality could have made the Sox a .500 team.
And now seeing how much better the team has become, I wonder where the team would be in the standings today if the Sox had gone out and fixed the bullpen when its weaknesses became so obvious early in the season?
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 31, 2015 10:57:45 GMT -5
I am not convinced of the value of WAR calculations for pitchers. It this case, they don't pass the smell test.
Think about the impact on the Sox next year of having a couple or three of really superior RPs, like - but not necessarily - Robertson. But I think he, alone, would have a bigger positive impact on the team than Buchholz ever will.
As we watch this team as now constructed it is much different from what we saw earlier in the year and very promising for next year. The major fixes needed now are in the pitching - a top of the rotation stopper and almost a complete rebuild of the bullpen.
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 31, 2015 10:05:06 GMT -5
I just saw on MLBRumors that the Yankees claimed Dave Robertson who was put on revocable waivers by the White Sox, but that no trade seemed likely.
Aren't the Red Sox ahead of the Yankees in being able to claim players?
I think Robertson might have been an interesting - but very expensive - addition to the Sox bullpen. He's had a better year this year than he did last year with a FIP of 2.09 and a WHIP of .885. He's one of the best RPs in baseball.
It seems likely that the White Sox might be asking too much for him. There are three more years left in the four-year $46 million contract he signed with the White Sox. Teams are not likely to offer a whole lot of player value in a deal for him and also pick up that contract.
However, I'd rather have him than pick up the Buchholz option.
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 29, 2015 18:33:49 GMT -5
Props to Cy Kelly. Last five starts: 32IP, 26H, 7R, 6ER, 22/10 K/BB 6.1 IP/GS, 101.4 Pit/GS, 1.125 WHIP, 1.69 ERA Doesn't look now like he will have to go to the bull pen.
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 28, 2015 11:39:00 GMT -5
And Zobrist will be 35. He cannot keep hitting like he has for KC for much longer. If his D has gone downhill then that is just another reason not to sign him.
IF Hanley is at 1B, the Sox normally would have only three LH hitters in the lineup, Ortiz, JBJ and Sandoval. That Sandoval cannot hit LHPs then will not be a very big deal. It's not a problem worth spending a lot of money, or a roster spot, to try to fix.
If Sandoval plays poorly next year then that is a different problem, and a platoon won't solve it.
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 28, 2015 11:23:40 GMT -5
The wakeup of pitching in the pros. The first two batters Brakeman faces in his professional career get singles.
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 28, 2015 11:18:48 GMT -5
Danr, there is a growing acceptance among SDA medicos that, because many of their dietary restrictions against meat, fish, wine, black pepper, tea, etc. originated in a different time, a century ago, as the healthy-conscious denomination was in formation that they don't necessarily stand the scrutiny of modern science. Wine has been proven benificial against cardio-vascular issues, as has fish. Fat no longer has the warnings it had just a decade ago. Black pepper and coffee have demonstrable health benefits. Hence, many of my SDA friends now enjoy these things in moderation. If the bans were imposed to enhance health (as opposed to being scripturally basex) and the science no longer applies, then neither do the bans. As science evolves our knowledge of diet, health, performance, it is imperative that the Sox employ the latest dietary guidelines for its players, and that the players embrace them during their careers. An overweight T.Shaw won't succeed longterm, nor will Panda. The age-anomolous, big-bodied Big Papi is svelter than ever, which means he has found the correct dietary and workoit balance for his mind and body. I hope Travis and Panda can find this balance as their success in Boston could enhance and prolong their careers wbile pro iding models for other pizzaburger omnivores. It's a dilemma. That plane trip was a long time ago and I've had no contact with SDA folks since then, so what you wrote is enlightening. I agree with your main point completely. I do believe in eating healthfully but that can be done in a variety of ways. I started out to make the point that I didn't think the diet business with Shaw was a big deal. Maybe I should have left it at that. He's not overweight. He seems to be in excellent condition. He is a big guy and could become overweight but you cannot assume that he will just because he doesn't eat what others think he should eat. There are many factors in weight gain. I've seen a lot of overweight vegetarians.
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 27, 2015 23:03:33 GMT -5
I'm not disputing that diet can affect performance but exactly how is a matter of some confusion, as you probably know. Unfortunately food and diet, like many other things in our society, have become politicized and subject to intense ideological disputes that often have no relation to the real science, which still is developing.
What is known is that cohorts, ethnic groups, etc. have certain similar characteristics. For example, why is it that Germanic types tend to have heavier builds, larger bones, etc. while the French can eat a high fat diet and generally not be overweight? There are theories that answer these questions.
And then there is diet science, which is very confused. There are the paleo/Atkins low carb types (of which I am one) and there are the low fat Dean Ornish types. There are vegetarians and vegans. I once had a coast-to-coast plane ride sitting next to a Seventh Day Adventist scientist, a fairly famous man in his field. He had me convinced that vegetarianism is the healthiest diet. My daughter is one, but I can't do it.
Hamburgers and Pizza are not as bad as people think, depending on the metabolism and other factors of the person. My pizza is pretty healthy with all the good stuff I put on it and my terrific sauce. Hamburgers are mostly harmful because of the buns, which add calories and carbs and not much else. If carbs are combined with fat, the fat sticks to the body. If you don't eat many cards, your body doesn't retain fat. That's why paleo/Atkins works for many people, but not everyone. The fact is we are all different and there is no one diet that fits all.
And when you are 25 you can get away with a lot.
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 27, 2015 19:07:14 GMT -5
Your perception of him is wildly different from mine. I heard him on the radio last night talking about all the work he put into overcoming various shortcomings. Lovullo has said similar things about him.
I had pointed out quite a while ago when I began lobbying for him to be promoted that he had gotten better at each level after initially having problems. This year at AAA looks bad except after having a bad start he hit pretty well. He seems to be skipping that part about doing poorly at the next level.
I think what he likes to eat is pretty irrelevant. Baseball players, including many of the really good ones, often are a bit weird. Boggs used to eat almost nothing but chicken. He even wrote (or had ghostwritten) a chicken cookbook. That was pretty odd, but it didn't seem to affect his hitting. If Shaw hits .300 with 30 HRs next year - or anything close to that - we shouldn't care what he eats.
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 27, 2015 9:06:47 GMT -5
As someone who wanted Sandaval dumped at the deadline I've flip flopped on him and Hanley. If we got rid of Panda we'd need a 3B but Hanley doesn't have a position. Keep Panda and try like hell to get him into shape. If he does and gets back to above average in both areas we could be looking at an asset on a three year deal going into next offseason when Moncada could be ready and possible at 3B. Dump Hanley and go Betts/JBJ/Castillo. I agree with you. Lovullo said last night that Panda has been doing a lot behind the scenes to improve himself and the results are beginning to show. Both his fielding and his hitting are better. I do not know what the problem with Hanley is. He is an enormously gifted baseball player. Maybe he is one of those players for whom things just came too easily, and having to work to improve a skill isn't natural for him. But that is just speculation.
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 27, 2015 8:59:09 GMT -5
Bradley is one of the best defensive outfielders I've ever seen, maybe the best. It is just stupid that he is not playing CF all the time. If Betts could make the transition from 2B to CF as easily as he did, almost certainly he could move to LF without much difficulty. I think he would be a better defensive LF than he is a CF.
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 27, 2015 8:55:25 GMT -5
One of the knocks against Shaw as that he couldn't hit the high inside fastball. Shaw is one of those players who works on his weaknesses and improves. Often a player gets labeled and the label sticks even when it no longer is valid. This seems to happen more often to players who were not taken high in the draft.
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 27, 2015 8:48:37 GMT -5
Dombrowski already has shown his value by setting in motion the move of Hanley to 1B, or maybe to another team - something that almost the whole world knew had to be done except for the previous Sox management.
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 27, 2015 8:44:05 GMT -5
Shouldn't Raudes at least be ranked? Maybe fairly highly? His stats are impressive.
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 27, 2015 8:38:58 GMT -5
I took the fangraphs stats on the top 20 SP ranked position players. I think Margot is over-rated and Travis and Shaw are under-rated. I intend to put this in a graph when the minor league seasons are completed, but since time is short for this new ranking here is the data in less than optimum form.
Name SP Ranking Level Age PA HR BA OBP SLG OPS+ wRC+ BB% K% BABIP ISO
Devers 1 A 18 451 11 .275 .318 .433 .342 112 4.70% 17.50% .313 .158
Moncada 2 A 20 302 7 .292 .383 .459 .387 141 10.30% 21.90% .364 .167
Margot 3 A+ 20 198 3 .282 .321 .420 .339 114 5.60% 7.60% .289. .138
Margot 3 AA 20 223 1 .249 .309 .371 .311 95 7.60% 14.80% .292 .122
Guerra 5 A 19 427 15 .277 .323 .454 .353 118 5.60% 24.40% .339 .177
Benintendi 8 SS 21 153 7 .290 .408 .540 .436 176 16.30% 9.80% .279 .250
Benintendi 8 A 21 25 2 .368 .480 .684 .504 217 20.00% 8.00% .313 .316
Travis 10 AA 22 230 3 .291 .365 .414 .358 127 10.40% 11.30% .318 .123
Travis 10 A+ 22 278 5 .313 .378 .467 .387 145 9.40% 15.50% .356 .154
Marrero 11 AAA 25 370 6 .251 .310 .344 .306 90 7.60% 21.90% .310 .034
Chavis 13 A 20 422 15 .225 .278 .402 .310 91 5.90% 30.60% .294 .176
Shaw 14 MLB 25 96 6 329 .376 .600 .414 165 6.50% 19.40% .355 .271
Shaw 14 AAA 25 322 5 249 .318 .356 .315 96 8.10% 16.80% .289 .107
Rijo 16 A+ 19 404 4 .251 .308 .358 .311 94 6.40% 21.50% .315 .107
Dubon 17 A 21 261 4 .301 .354 .428 .360 123 6.90% 13.00% .337 .127
Dubon 17 A+ 21 218 1 .250 .321 .281 .291 81 8.30% 15.60% .296 .031
Hernandez 18 AA 22 294 5 .326 .349 .482 .375 139 3.10% 16.70% .382 .156
Hernandez 18 AAA 22 135 3 .231 .252 .369 .283 74 3.00% 26.70% .293 .138
Longhi 19 A 20 443 6 .278 .339 .393 .340 110 7.40% 18.50% .334 .115
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 26, 2015 9:32:17 GMT -5
It is noticeable that a number of the good prospects have trended down some in the past few weeks. I suspect that fatigue is part of it.
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 26, 2015 9:28:17 GMT -5
The impression I am getting from listening to the pre-game radio interviews with Lovullo is that almost everything being done now has little to do with winning now, but setting the stage for what will happen in the off season. It is clear that they want to get a better idea about some players. I think he was trying to see how much they could get out of Miley, in part because there is no one better in the bullpen, but also because his job with the Sox probably is in the balance.
Dombrowski is actively involved in day to day decisions now as evidenced by what has been reported about trying Hanley at 1B. Changes are coming.
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 25, 2015 9:38:47 GMT -5
Last night during the radio broadcast they talked about Castillo's adjustment to MLB compared to Cuban ball. He told them that in Cuba the batter always swings when the runner tries to steal and that it has taken him some time to not do that instinctively now. There probably are other instinctive things that he learned in Cuba that have to be straightened out. But not his hitting. He's not having a problem there.
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 24, 2015 13:35:30 GMT -5
I don't understand the practice of denying Espinoza any chance to win games. I know they probably are limiting his innings, but this seems very odd to me. Anyone have an explanation?
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 23, 2015 18:32:19 GMT -5
Taz was worn out in the first half of the season. His stuff now is nothing to compare with what it was. He shouldn't be the closer. They should have gotten another decent arm by now. The bullpen is a wreck, and it's been obvious that it was bad for most of the season. Cherington screwed up the pitching staff all around.
I suspect since Dombrowski took a lot of heat for not having a better BP in Detroit, that it will be something he works on with the Sox.
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