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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 23, 2015 18:12:49 GMT -5
It has not been the Sox custom to use the best prospects as RPs in the minors, at least not until they have had some experience as starters at several levels. Poyner and Kelley at Lowell appear to be exceptions, as possibly does Pimentel in the GCL.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Aug 23, 2015 17:05:52 GMT -5
In reference to thelavarnwayguy, that's not exactly true about Brentz. He hit 30 HRs between two levels in 2011 with a very high OPS. He had a very good season in Portland in 2012. Then he shot himself in the spring of 2013, suffered a serious hamstring injury in 2014 and had surgery this year. His career pretty much careened into the garbage bin with that bullet in his leg. However, to support your point, his collegiate hitting, if anything, was better than Benintendi's.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Aug 23, 2015 14:38:39 GMT -5
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Aug 23, 2015 14:07:24 GMT -5
Rodriguez has no Ks or walks in the first five innings.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Aug 23, 2015 14:00:37 GMT -5
Here is a depth chart by position and level of Red Sox MLB Players 27 and under as well as minor league prospects rated in the top 60 by Sox Prospects. Ratings are in parens. I picked age 27 because the average age when players have their best season is 28. After the chart I have a list of unrated minor league players whose current stats appear to make them interesting. There are limited or no scouting reports on a number of these players. Level | C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | OF | SP | RP | MLB | Swihart Vazquez | Shaw (14) | Rutledge Holt | | Bogaerts | Betts Bradley Castillo | Porcello
Rodriguez
Owens (5)
Barnes
Kelly
| Hembree (34)
Workman
| AAA Pawtucket |
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| Coyle (37)
| Rivero
| Marrero (11)
Hernandez (18)
| Cecchini (27)
Brentz (31)
| Johnson (4)
Escobar (29)
| Light (15)
Aro (25)
Diaz (33)
Noe Ramirez (35)
| AA Portland | Romanski (53)
| Travis (10)
| Asuaje (24)
| | Lin (55)
| Margot (3)
Ramos (42)
| Mercedes (47)
| Jerez (23)
Martin (40)
| A+ Salem | Procychen (39)
| | Rijo (16)
| | Dubon (17) | Meyers (51)
| Ball (12)
Stankiewicz (20)
Buttrey (21)
McAvoy (32)
Tavaras (52)
| Shepherd (49)
| A Greenville | Moore (60)
| Longhi (19)
| Moncada (2)
| Devers (1)
Chavis (13)
| Guerra (6)
| Benintendi (8)
| Kopech (9)
Beeks (41)
Taylor (45)
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| SS Lowell | Rei (26)
| Ockimey (58)
| | Acosta (43)
| | Basabe (30)
Metheny (38)
Washington (50)
| Cosart (44)
Steen (54)
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| Rookie Ft. Myers | | | Rusconi (56)
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| Aybar (22)
| Espinoza (7)
Allen (28)
Bautista (57)
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| DSL Santo Domingo |
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| Acosta (36)
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| Interesting Other Players | Roberson, c-OF-DH AA Reynoso, DSL | Witte, 1B-3B, AA Downs, Rookie | De La Guerra, SS | Espinal, DSL |
| Heller, AA-A+ Cedrola, DSL J. Hernandez, DSL | Glorius, SS Gonzalez, SS Kent, Rookie Raudes, Rookie D. Henandez, DSL Patoja, DSL V Garcia, DSL Reyes, DSL | Marban, AAA Show, A+ Poyner, SS Kelley, SS Pimintel, Rookie DeJesus, Rookie | |
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Aug 23, 2015 11:02:10 GMT -5
I can think of a team that Pedroia would almost certainly waive his no-trade clause to be a part of - the Cubs. If I was a betting man, I'd actually put that possibility at even money at some point over the next two years (presuming of course that the Red Sox continue to stink up the joint). What the return would be is anyone's guess. Schwarber is a fine hitter but isn't any better in LF than Hanley or any better at C than Lavarnway. He can't DH in the NL and he's blocked with Rizzo at 1B. At some point, a Pedroia and JBJ for Schwarber and say C.J. Edwards deal might make a lot of sense for both teams. KLaw has been writing for a long time that Schwarber is not a catcher, but he also underestimated his hitting. He appears to be an elite hitter, but possibly one without a position. It isn't known what kind of 1B he would be. I don't think the Cubs need Pedroia and I don't think they would trade for him. And giving up JBJ and Pedroia is too much for the Sox for a player without a position, even if he is a great hitter. Pedroia is the leader of a young and up and coming team now, and that team needs him.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Aug 22, 2015 17:40:36 GMT -5
No, what has happened is that the team is really hitting. The team has been something like .286 for the past month or more.
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Aug 22, 2015 17:37:39 GMT -5
I think they should try Bradley third in the lineup with Bogaerts second. That would put three fast runners at the top of the order.
I would like to see Castillo in the lineup every day but the only way that can be done and keep Betts and Bradley in the lineup is to bench Ramirez. I don't think they can do that.
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Aug 22, 2015 16:07:59 GMT -5
Bogaerts has one of the highest BAs with runners in scoring position, and that has boosted his stock.
There has been a lot of discussion on the radio about his hitting. What he is doing is entirely intentional, his way of learning how to hit better. He is trying to gain control of the plate and hit balls where they are pitched. Last year he tried to pull too much. He has purposely avoided that this year, but he almost certainly will try to improve his power numbers in the future.
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Aug 22, 2015 16:00:24 GMT -5
It is much more fun to listen to the games now than it was a month ago. This is almost a completely different team - and a much better one. I don't think this is a fluke.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Aug 22, 2015 15:58:01 GMT -5
Yes, it's that entire WEEI box. I didn't realize it was a WEEI ad. Do they know they have a problem?
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Aug 22, 2015 13:31:47 GMT -5
I put this in the corrections thread but nothing happened and I got no comments. There is a problem with the coding of the News links. This is what I get when I click on any of them: Forbidden You don't have permission to access /partner_widgets/red_sox_widget/: Non-static method SimplePie_Misc::absolutize_url() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in on line : Non-static method SimplePie_Misc::parse_url() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in on line : Non-static method SimplePie_Misc::compress_parse_url() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in on line : Non-static method SimplePie_Misc::normalize_url() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in on line : Non-static method SimplePie_Misc::percent_encoding_normalization() should not be called statically in on line : Non-static method SimplePie_Misc::parse_url() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in on line : Non-static method SimplePie_Misc::remove_dot_segments() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in on line : Non-static method SimplePie_Misc::compress_parse_url() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in on line : Non-static method SimplePie_Misc::is_isegment_nz_nc() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in on line : Non-static method SimplePie_Misc::array_unique() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in on line fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2015/08/15/rick-porcellos-new-approach-sense-of-humor-on-display-with-spinners/ on this server. Read more: forum.soxprospects.com/thread/1605/corrections-2014?page=5#ixzz3jZPrPbON
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Aug 22, 2015 13:30:20 GMT -5
I have a table I want to put as the beginning of a new thread. It has 9 columns and 37 rows. I can't figure out how to use the table function above. Any help would be appreciated. Thanks in advance.
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Aug 22, 2015 13:14:10 GMT -5
This is a really interesting thread Eric, thanks for starting it. As I mentioned in a post in the Dombrowski thread, there are presently a handful of players that I would not even consider dealing unless it's in a trade so lop-sided for the Red Sox that merely suggesting it in the trade proposal sub forum would be met with scorn and laughter. Those players are Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Eduardo Rodriguez, Blake Swihart, Jackie Bradley Jr and Henry Owens. From the minors its Rafael Devers, Yoan Moncada, Anderson Espinoza, Andrew Benintendi. For the record, I don't want to trade David Ortiz either. He has 10/5 rights and has said he won't waive them, so it's a moot point anyway. I don't necessarily WANT to trade Pedroia, but I would listen if someone asked. That said, I think he has a full NTC in his contract, but we don't know for sure one way or the other. Following that are players I wouldn't ask to trade, but would listen on, obviously, these have varrying degress of value and some of these will be included in acquisitions mentioned below : Dustin Pedroia; Rusney Castillo, Juichi Tazawa, Travis Shaw, Christian Vazquez, Ryan Hanigan, Hanley Ramirez, Wade Miley, Brian Johnson, Stephen Wright. There is one player I would move at any financial cost : Pablo Sandoval. I've mentioned this in other threads, but he has been declining offensively for five straight seasons and defensively (yes, difficult to quantify, but it meets the eye test too) in four of the last five. I think he is a complete sunk cost. He has been "worth" this year a net loss of $10m (according to FanGraphs). My guess is you would need to eat half of his salary to get another team to take him. Personally, I'd rather hypothetically light $10M a year from the payroll on fire than $20M. There is a second player I would deal for whatever prospect you could get - Clay Buchholz. I understand that he is valuable when he pitches and could be "worth" more than his option. That said, I'd rather have the $13M from his option next season to use toward other resources. I think there are some smaller market teams that would give you a lottery ticket for him to have the options. If not, just decline the option and use the money to other resources. Guys I would make shop / make available (also to varying degrees of return) are as follows: Rick Porcello, Brock Holt, Manny Margot, Javier Guerra, Michael Kopech, Sam Travis, and the rest of our prospects / major league talent. Our team right now is in a very similar position to where the Cubbies were last year at this time (which is why I think making a decision that allowed Ben Cherington to leave was a HUGE mistake). There is a ton of young talent, a lot of which is showing it belongs at the major league level in some capacity. This is the off-season (in my opinion) to spend money (not players) on an Ace, and that ace to me is David Price. Then, as mentioned above, with the $10m savings from Sandoval, $13m from Buchholz and $4m coming off the books from Gonzalez, you're at what Price would likely cost per season. From most estimates, that still leaves us around $25m in cap space. I'd use the players mentioned above to trade for a good #2 pitcher with reasonable cost (Jose Quintana, Tyson Ross type of player). You go into next season with something like this: c - Swihart; 1b - Shaw; 2b - Pedroia; 3b - Ramirez; ss - Bogaerts; lf - Betts; cf - Bradley Jr; rf - Castillo; dh - Ortiz. bench - Hanigan, Holt, Rutledge, OF. sp - Price, "Quintana", Rodriguez, Owens and whichever of Miley / Porcello isn't moved. Depth in Pawtucket includes something like Wright, Escobar, Couch and Barnes. bp - Uehara, Tazawa, and spend some of the remaining money to build up the back end here. Well, there you have it. Sorry for the long post, but it's going to be a complicated off-season. I think the moves above set up a team that will contend in the short term and not sacrifice the long term dynasty we're looking to build. Have at it. I agree with much of what you write but for two things. Hanley Ramirez is not going to play 3B. He pretty much has said that and he would be no good at it. He wasn't good when he did play it and his body was in better infielder condition then. He has bulked up and has the kind of body now that gets injured by a lot of movement and bending, both of which are required at 3rd. The only other internal option at third is Shaw and, at best, he is a backup there. He is much better defensively at first and he may be there. So, Sandoval is really the most reasonable option at third. I think you overstate his "decline." As I have pointed out previously, last year he had a bad start, but then hit extremely well, and, of course, had that great post-season. His defense has been much better in recent weeks. I think he is settling in. He made a great play yesterday. His hitting has been a bit better recently as well and I think will get even better. I don't think there is much chance of him playing anywhere next year other than Boston. Things will start to get more interesting after next year as those guys at Greenville, especially Devers and Moncada, hit the upper minor league levels. I also am opposed to picking up the Buchholz option. I would much rather see than $13 million put towards a contract for Price or Cueto (yesterday's performance notwithstanding).
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Aug 22, 2015 9:05:47 GMT -5
I find it interesting that despite how much he is disliked that no one suggested that Sandoval be on this list. Maybe some think his contract and his other problems make him untradeable. I am not sure of that. There were a lot of rumors at the deadline that the Sox were in discussions that might involve a trade of Sandoval - I think to San Diego. I think that if his recent improvement continues, he could be marketable. Whether he should be traded is another question. To me, the problems with Sandoval are fixable and there is no internal replacement for him. He's given up switch-hitting, he's making the transition from SF to BOS and he appears to be recognizing that his weight is an issue. I, for one, don't see the need to ship him off just yet. As to the SD rumors, that was simply a lot of people putting 2 + 2 together with respect to underperforming bad contracts, but there were no legitimate rumors that either Shields or Sandoval were being shopped. Also keep in mind that DD saw Sandoval destroy his team in the World Series some years back, and I'm sure this resonates as to the type of potential Sandoval has. He is a different kettle of fish than Hanley IMO. I agree with you. I have been saying this more or less for weeks. My point here was that the option exists by which he could be traded because Bogaerts could be moved to third. However, that is not what I would do now.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Aug 21, 2015 16:28:49 GMT -5
I find it interesting that despite how much he is disliked that no one suggested that Sandoval be on this list. Maybe some think his contract and his other problems make him untradeable. I am not sure of that.
There were a lot of rumors at the deadline that the Sox were in discussions that might involve a trade of Sandoval - I think to San Diego. I think that if his recent improvement continues, he could be marketable. Whether he should be traded is another question.
Who would replace him? The same question raised about Bogaerts.
I still am of the belief that the Sox were right to move Bogaerts to third, but not in the way they did it. That was dumb. But the idea was not. He has worked hard to become a decent shortstop, but it seems unlikely he ever will win a Gold Glove (and that doesn't mean I put a lot of weight on those).
I think it still is something that is likely to occur at some point, maybe later in his career, maybe with another team. In terms of future possibilities it is something that should not be dismissed.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Aug 21, 2015 14:26:07 GMT -5
The Sox are 9-8 in August and have a +24 edge in runs, but taking out the 15 and 22 run games, the differential is -2. Still, the Sox are playing better, particularly they are hitting much better. The pitchers still have allowed an average of 5.4 runs per game. The Sox have averaged 6.8 runs per game, but without the 15 and 22 runs, the average is 5.3.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Aug 21, 2015 14:15:33 GMT -5
Trading Pedroia and moving Betts to 2B makes sense from the standpoint of mechanical team construction. But there is more to team construction than simple mechanics. Thus, I truly doubt it will happen and I personally do not want it to happen. I think the Sox will be a better team with Pedroia than they would without him. He contributes an enormous amount that isn't visible. I think there is a good chance he will be in team management/coaching in a few years.
Almost certainly Ortiz is going to be gone after next year. Pedroia will be the last of the veterans, the last of the players bonded with the fans over many years. I cannot see Dombrowski letting both players leave in the same year. It would be bad for fan relations, for the reputation of the team with other players, and for team performance.
I also don't see Betts being traded. I think it is far more likely than Dombrowski will figure out a way to get rid of Hanley and Betts will be the LF. Just because current Sox management has wanted to keep Betts in CF doesn't mean the new Sox management will want to do that. It doesn't make sense with JBJ emerging.
In my opinion it is a no brainer. When you have the best CF in baseball you play him in CF. And Eric is absolutely right. Betts can play LF and probably be an All-Star. The old ideas of the kinds of players that each position should have are just that: old. They don't make sense in contemporary baseball. What makes sense is to have a balanced team of hitting, speed, defense and pitching.
I have no problem with Eric's list and I agree with much of what Amfox1 wrote, except for trading Pedroia. Hanley is the one who has to go. He simply doesn't fit and he is too expensive.
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Aug 21, 2015 11:43:12 GMT -5
Ortiz always has had trouble with high inside fastballs and cutters but somehow he has managed to do pretty well even though everyone knows this. The problem is that if the pitch is not almost perfect he can kill it. I don't know if Shaw is like that but he has hit some long balls on inside pitches. I just was looking at fangraphs table on him and noticed that his minor league wRC+ and wOBA records are very good, except for this year's AAA record. www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=11982&position=1B/3B
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Aug 21, 2015 11:33:49 GMT -5
There is a very simple reason why OBP is more important than BA. It is a better indicator of outs made. The more outs a player makes the fewer runs he is going to cause. And if you have a lineup with several players who make high numbers of outs your run total is going to be low. And it doesn't take analytics to undertand. Just look at those Sox lineups of the last several years (with 2013 a notable exception) with several big out makers in a row.
However, OBP is not the end-all. Those runners on base have to be driven in and so power and/or really good BAs are also are needed. The highest scoring teams usually combine all three - some players with high OBP, some with high BAs and some with big power. And of course, the netter players usually combine at least two of those. What you don't want in your lineup are players that don't produce anyone of those three.
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Aug 21, 2015 11:22:07 GMT -5
I suggested Swihart as a 1B a while ago, but he isn't hitting enough to be a 1B, and such a move might disrupt his development as well as reduce his trade value.
Swihart is one of the most valuable trade chips the Sox have. I think he either has to be the regular catcher or he should be traded. With him as the centerpiece, the Sox could get one of those young ace starters. However, that kind of deal should not be made until it has been pretty well determined that Vazquez will fully recover.
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Aug 20, 2015 22:54:42 GMT -5
I have heard Lovullo describe Shaw's defense at 1B as excellent two days in a row on his pre-game radio show. Dombrowski made a point of going over to Shaw in the dugout and congratulating him on his play. Sox management is noticing, and barely can contain their glee about the possibility they have their 1B.
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Aug 20, 2015 22:43:49 GMT -5
Several of you must not have read Edes' piece on Sandoval today in which he writes that Sandoval has been working on his weight and his mobility and that there are improvements in both.
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Aug 20, 2015 18:34:38 GMT -5
So after the pitcher walks in a run, Hanigan swings at the first pitch.
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Aug 20, 2015 16:38:33 GMT -5
The Red Sox team OPS is .736, 8th highest in MLB. The highest is Toronto at .768. The lowest - and this is fascinating - are the Mets at .674. Of course the Mets have the 3rd lowest team ERA at 3.22, which explains why they are where they are. The Sox ERA of 4.62 is 28th, which explains a lot about where they are.
In any case, a player who can hit in the mid .700 OPS range (where both Bogaerts and Betts are now) is doing OK and probably is going to have a job.
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