danr
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Post by danr on Jul 30, 2015 10:08:52 GMT -5
I agree with you on Porcello. His start against Detroit showed why the Sox got him. I think his problems are easier to solve than Kelly's. There is some flaw in the way he is throwing the ball that is causing him to keep the ball up. For all we know it may be something simple. In any case, he needs to work it out.
On the other hand, Kelly just hasn't shown the command needed to be a starter. I am a little surprised they continue to keep him in that role. At this point there is nothing really wrong with letting him start other than the fact that it is delaying what I think is the inevitable. And it also is keeping Johnson and Owens from getting their chances.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 30, 2015 9:14:11 GMT -5
Farrell also said the Sox intend to recall Johnson and Owens soon.
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Post by danr on Jul 29, 2015 17:10:34 GMT -5
A lot of the guys who look like they could be NFL players are the Cuban guys, like Castillo, Moncada, Cespedes and Puig. Those four are all quite muscular and fast. Hope that isn't taken as racist. It's not intended. It's not racist. It's that the ethnic mix in Cuba is different from other Latin American countries and thus body types also differ. I don't think there is as much Indian blood as in many of the other countries. It is more black and Spanish and a fair amount of mixing of the two. The Spanish influence is somewhat greater because it was a Spanish colony until we took it from Spain in 1898 in the Spanish-American war. Most of the other former Spanish colonies had been free of Spain since the early 1800s.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 29, 2015 16:31:56 GMT -5
Back to the present...Bradley is in CF in tonight's lineup.
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Post by danr on Jul 29, 2015 15:28:56 GMT -5
Tigers have decided to "reboot," meaning Price and Cespedes are on the market.
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Post by danr on Jul 28, 2015 16:03:52 GMT -5
I said Holt was better defensively primarily because he seems to be able to play every position competently. I know Zobrist was good at 2B and in the OF, but I thought he was pretty limited elsewhere.
Holt has the reputation of wearing down when he plays regularly. I heard Farrell say those exact words on the radio the other day. I think it is more that he is the classic streak hitter. Pedroia is the same and it appears Betts may be as well. They hit a lot in streaks and then not much in streaks.
Adding this: Zobrist played only LF, RF and 2B for Oakland this year. Last year he played all three OF positions, SS and 2B for Tampa. He hasn't played at 3B or 1B since 2010.
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Post by danr on Jul 28, 2015 14:36:53 GMT -5
KC gave Manaea $3.5 million to sign in 2013, twice the slot amount. He's only pitched one full season in the pros, 2014. He was injured early this year and was just promoted to AA. That's sort of like the Sox trading Trey Ball for Zobrist, but Manaea probably is better than Ball - unless KC knows something that no one else does. Manaea-Ball is not a great comparison. The only similarities are that they were LHP picked in the same draft and they're both from Indiana. Manaea is a college pitcher who fell in the draft because of injury and who only made it to AA just recently due to another injury. He dealt in High A last year, although his walks were high. I'll put it this way - I'd probably take Manaea over Benintendi. Wow. Then Beane scores again.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 28, 2015 14:33:16 GMT -5
I think Holt is better defensively than Zobrist but Zobrist has more power. I have been among a number on this site who under-estimated Holt. Based on two years now of him confounding us, I think if he gets the chance he can be a regular 2B for a lot of teams. That's probably his best position and his bat would play there.
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Post by danr on Jul 28, 2015 14:29:43 GMT -5
KC gave Manaea $3.5 million to sign in 2013, twice the slot amount. He's only pitched one full season in the pros, 2014. He was injured early this year and was just promoted to AA. That's sort of like the Sox trading Trey Ball for Zobrist, but Manaea probably is better than Ball - unless KC knows something that no one else does.
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Post by danr on Jul 28, 2015 14:16:45 GMT -5
Sox claim RP Jean Machi off waivers from SF. The 33-year old right-hander had two real good years with SF in 2013 (3-1, 2.38) and 14 (7-1, 2.58) but had been quite hittable this year (1-0, 5.14). Got knocked around a bit in the post season last year as well.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 28, 2015 13:37:43 GMT -5
Zobrist to KC.
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Post by danr on Jul 28, 2015 12:18:19 GMT -5
Amaro has told teams he wants their best offers for Hamels by tomorrow.
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Post by danr on Jul 28, 2015 12:16:13 GMT -5
I was a believer in Kelly. I liked his stuff, his age, and his potential. However, it is clear to me that he isn't the pitcher I thought he was. I don't know now whether he can become that pitcher. Almost certainly he does not belong in the rotation at this time.
I think Kelly probably should go back to Pawtucket and work out of the bullpen. Owen and Johnson should be given cracks at the rotation.
However, that all could change by the end of this week.
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Post by danr on Jul 28, 2015 11:08:37 GMT -5
There is an aging curve for position players as well. A couple of years ago there was a piece on here showing aging data for position players. It was remarkably consistent over time. The baseball player body seems to peak around the age of 28 and decline begins in the early 30s. An amazing number of players have their best season around the age of 28.
I think this pitcher curve needs more data and more data over time. It could exist and I don't know about it, but I have never read that PEDs prevented injuries or even prolonged careers. I personally believe they are greatly over-estimated. I think this analysis would be far more interesting if it were done for pitchers since WWII. It then would include many pitchers who had long careers.
I am a little dubious of this kind of analysis with such a small amount of data. There are a lot of factors that go into how long a pitcher can be effective including how much stress is in his pitching motion, the kinds of pitches he throws and how he is used.
I disagree about Price. He has been getting better as he has gotten older. It is just a guess on my part, but I bet of all the around 30-year old pitchers on the market he will be among the top two or three for at least five more years.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 27, 2015 17:54:57 GMT -5
Well. one thing that needed to get done now has been done.
Surely, you do not think that I am arguing that these things are easy to do. I know they are not. If it were easy to do anyone could do it. Actually my regard for their skills is such that I think they could have done some things if they had been willing to do them.
While the team didn't completely fall out of the race until after the ASB, the team's problems have been obvious since the debacle in May. Some moves a little more significant than sending Masterson and Kelly to Pawtucket really were called for.
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Post by danr on Jul 27, 2015 17:45:24 GMT -5
MLBrumors says Castillo recalled to replace Victorino.
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Post by danr on Jul 27, 2015 15:08:29 GMT -5
I am amazed they did not make some major moves once it became apparent that this year's plan was failing - and that was a while ago. Obviously, they may have been trying, but if they had it probably would have leaked.
Some of the things that might have been done: At least one good SP acquired; JBJ playing instead of De Aza; Travis Shaw given a more extended tryout; Johnson given more than one chance in the rotation; better RPs acquired.
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Post by danr on Jul 27, 2015 13:44:02 GMT -5
I can't remember a trade deadline time when there was less chatter in the rumor mills about the Sox and Sox players.
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Post by danr on Jul 27, 2015 13:39:04 GMT -5
Right now, the way this team is being managed cannot make sense to the outside rational mind. It has no apparent purpose. I wish they would explain themselves.
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Post by danr on Jul 27, 2015 13:35:16 GMT -5
No you don't have to have a winning team to teach the right way to play but, as I wrote, it is an indicator. But I should have made it plainer that I don't think it is a definitive one.
As to RISP, I didn't check the Sox overall stats. I wrote that from memory of commentaries during games for some of the players. I haven't checked the individual stats but I suspect there is a considerable variance. I know Bogaerts is at about ,400 (hell, he's hit close to .400 for the several weeks) so there have to be some players way below average. When I get a chance I'll look them up and compare them. It just seemed to me that so many times at the end of a game I hear how horrible they have been with RISP.
And it is true that the Sox have a hitting problem. On average they are about average, but they have been enormously streaky. And, of course the team plan was to hit really well to offset the mediocre pitching.
Just look at this last losing streak. For ten games they didn't hit. Then last night they got 20 hits. So the average over those games will look a whole lot better, but the W-L doesn't. It is a good example of why looking beyond the averages is important.
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Post by danr on Jul 27, 2015 9:59:07 GMT -5
It is true that baseball is not the kind of team sport that basketball, hockey and football are. It also is true that winning games is not the most important goal of the minor league system. But teaching players how to play winning baseball should be a major goal and that sometimes does involve playing as a team.
Players should learn how to win games and while it always involves individual performance, winning baseball means that players know how to perform under almost all circumstances of a game. Scoring runs and keeping the other team from scoring runs are the two keys to winning baseball.
Perhaps the most revealing stat about recent Red Sox teams is hitting with runs in scoring position. The Sox have really sucked at this for a while now. Teams win by scoring runs when the opportunities present themselves. The Red Sox are terrible at this. If the player leading off an inning hits a double, does the next hitter get him to third, or to home? If he gets to third, does the next hitter do something that allows him to score? What has to be done under these circumstances is different for the hitter than when he comes to back with the bases empty. How many times have we seen batters striking out - especially taking called third strikes - under these circumstances this year? How many times have we seen players try to hit homeruns when what was needed was just hitting the ball?
When I write about the importance of winning in the minor leagues I mean teaching players the right way to play the game, the way of winning baseball. If the talent is there, and these skills are learned, teams will win. Yes, teams full of great players also usually will win even if these skills are not applied, but very few teams are that loaded with talent, especially at the major league level. So to me the won-lost record is not a big deal, but is in an indicator, especially if there is a lot of talent on a team but not a winning record.
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Post by danr on Jul 27, 2015 9:21:25 GMT -5
jmei, I see there is a new thread, culture of winning. You might considering moving the last three posts to that thread. They fit right in! LOL
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Post by danr on Jul 26, 2015 17:15:06 GMT -5
jmei, I see there is a new thread, culture of winning. You might considering moving the last three posts to that thread. They fit right in!
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Post by danr on Jul 26, 2015 17:11:33 GMT -5
congusgambler33 I also support what you wrote. I wrote something similar a while again and was castigated for it. But it really makes sense in all sorts of ways.
The great Baltimore Orioles teams of the 60s and 70s were built upon what was called "The Oriole Way." The entire minor league system was organized to teach "The Oriole Way." It was how to play the game right, in every aspect. Every coach at every level taught it. Their minors produced a number of their great stars and also gave them trading chips. The entire organization had a winning attitude. Every player knew what was expected of him. I covered the Orioles for UPI during some of those years and they were fun. There was a great attitude that penetrated the organization.
Then the famous lawyer Edward Bennett Williams bought the Orioles and since he was dying of cancer he instituted a "win now" philosophy. That was when they started doing more trades for established, and even somewhat over the hill players, often giving up good prospects. Their minor leagues deteriorated. As a result they went through a very dark period. The Oriole way was long gone. It only has been the last several years that they have begun to generate talent again from their minors.
From what I have read, mostly on this site, the Sox have a sophisticated system of managing their minors. Every player has a development plan upon which he is judged. There are certain milestones set for players. And the plan includes such things as physical conditioning, weight and diet. I think the reason why some players seem to be promoted over others who seem more deserving is that the promoted players met their goals and the ones not promoted had not met theirs - and the goals might be very different. I think the Sox approach differs from the Oriole approach because it is much more personalized and maybe, and I am not sure of this, not as oriented to a "team" approach, a "Red Sox way," of sorts.
I don't get the impression that a lot of weight is put on the minor league team records. I understand that, but I do believe that winning is a habit and learning how to win under many different circumstances is important.
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Post by danr on Jul 26, 2015 16:08:50 GMT -5
If Cueto helps KS win the WS, the price they paid will be peanuts. This is the classic case of a team very close to reaching the top and every win now - and especially every win in the post-season is worth increasing amounts of money. It gets obscene if they get to the WS. There have been discussions of this in the past.
The scale of what value a team can reasonably give up in a situation like this is very relative to what impact the acquisition might have on the team's final results.
Thus KC very easily could justify paying a much higher price than could the Red Sox, or any other team way down in the standings.
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