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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 6, 2015 10:27:37 GMT -5
Owens' future depends almost entirely (health aside) on his command and control. He has shown steady improvement in both and there really is no reason not to believe he can continue to improve. If he can develop really good command and control his fastball is fast enough. It was 91-92 and it might tick up a little in the next couple of years. He has the arsenal to be a very effective starter and probably better than some - maybe most - we have seen in the starting rotation this year. However, he isn't there yet.
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 5, 2015 21:17:35 GMT -5
This was one of the best-played games of the season. I take back writing that Wright should be in the bullpen. Wakefield did something with him that has made a huge difference.
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 5, 2015 14:51:30 GMT -5
I'm happy for Nava. He should get a chance to play for Tampa. He never was going to play much more for the Sox. I am a bit surprised Oakland didn't grab him. He's a Beane kind of player.
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 5, 2015 14:44:54 GMT -5
The team rosters show 26 on the Pawtucket roster, 14 of them pitchers. It would seem to be a good time to promote Sam Travis to Pawtucket. I suspect the Sox will pick up one of the RPs in the next couple of days, if not sooner.
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 4, 2015 14:54:19 GMT -5
JBJ has got to start hitting soon or he will run out of chances with the Sox. Castillo is showing some life but he has to do better. Neither one right now is the right fielder the team needs. It would be great if one would become that player, but it has to be done soon. Otherwise the Sox are going to have no choice but to get one from another team. I am not the biggest fan of Hayward but he would be an upgrade.
I don't think Sandoval would be seen so much as a liability if there was adequate offensive production from 1B and RF. The team has had almost nothing from those two positions all season while Sandoval has hit some and most of his major fielding blunders were early in the season. He has been OK since then. However, if the reports of his weight-gaining are true then the Sox have to address that - and from what Farrell said the other day, I think they already are. In any case, even though he is not doing as well as expected, he is not the reason the Sox have done so poorly.
First, and foremost, the pitching has been terrible and now it is going through the turnover that it needed. However, that may not be good enough.
Second, the hitting has been average. It needs to be better than that. That can happen by filling the holes at 1B and RF with good hitters, either from within, or by acquisition. Hanley should be tried at 1B, the sooner the better. I don't think a really good 1B can be acquired right now.
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 3, 2015 19:51:32 GMT -5
Just a hunch. Instead of a free agent, I think we'll make a run at Strasburg. I don't see him signing a long-term deal in Washington. Boras is his agent. He can become a free agent after next season. They can try to get as much for him as they can with his departure imminet. Strasburg seems to be the Nationals' version of Buchholz. No thanks.
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 3, 2015 19:04:30 GMT -5
Johnson just put on DL with elbow tightness.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Aug 3, 2015 17:18:37 GMT -5
I can't see Cacchini and Brentz being kept on the 40-man roster for another year. Neither has been particularly outstanding at AAA - although Brentz has been hurt a lot - and there now seems little chance they will play for the Sox.
Also, I doubt they keep all those RPs. I don't know which ones should go, but we'll probably have a better idea by the end of the season. The BP needs a fairly substantial makeover and Light looks like the only one at Pawtucket who might have a chance of making the big club next year who hasn't already had a chance.
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 3, 2015 17:08:14 GMT -5
I really don't understand how in the same post some of you who are complaining about the Hanley and Sandoval contracts are also advocating going 6+ years for Cueto at big dollars. Let's look at all the 30+ yr old big money pitchers: Justin Verlander Cliff Lee CC Sabathia Jon Lester Adam Wainwright CJ Wilson Tim Lincecum Notice some bad contracts in there? It's insanely stupid to continue to do the same thing over and over again and think it will work. Throwing big money at a player who's almost guaranteed to be done before the end of the contract being that move. I'd rather put a package together for Gray instead as at least then you know you will be getting huge surplus value. Carrasco is another good solution as he's very cost controlled and has fairly low mileage on his arm. A move I'd love to see them do though is to start targeting previous highly ranked prospects who aren't viewed quite as high now. Gausman being the type of guy I'm talking about. I'd argue someone like Gausman is a good bet to be better than Cueto over the next 6 years at a fraction of the cost. See my post above about when such contracts can be justified. I like the idea of a deal for Gray, but Beane may not be ready for that unless he is just blown away. Gausman has been doing better recently and Orioles are high on him. I seriously doubt they would trade him to the Sox. And while trying to get those undervalued prospects is a good idea, its successful execution is very tricky. First of all, the acquiring team has to have some very good intel on the player and be very good at interpreting it, things the Sox do not seem to be particularly good at. BTW, Beane is a genius at this, one of the major reasons he has been successful, and a reason to be careful in dealing with him.
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 3, 2015 17:00:30 GMT -5
danr, I'd note that only one of those pitchers is older than 32. I think that's the point - nobody cares about the 30-year-old pitcher's age 30 season. It's how precipitous the drop-off is after that. And Burnett just got hurt and is going to miss four weeks, apparently. Of course. It is a striking stat, isn't it? But if you are going to acquire an existing ace it is going to be very difficult, if not impossible, to avoid having some years in the contract that may be in the pitcher's decline period. Scherzer almost certainly isn't going to be a $30M pitcher five years from now. But he may be worth a lot more than $30M now if the Nationals win the WS and that would justify his contract. Deals of that magnitude only make sense if there is a reasonable chance that adding that player will be the difference-maker for the team. Thus, a reasonable argument could be made - I'm not making it yet but I might later depending on what else the Sox do - that the Sox might not be close enough to being a serious contender to justify a massive FA signing.
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 3, 2015 16:16:34 GMT -5
Below is a list of the top 25 starting pitchers with current fWARs of 2.5 or better, with the age they will be next year.
For those of you concerned about acquiring 30-year old pitchers, it is interesting to note that the average age of these pitchers is 29.1 (29.6 with Burnett included). The youngest pitcher is Cole at 25. Gray is 26. Sale, Archer, Pineda, Bumgarner and Quintana are 27. The rest are between 28 and 32 except for Burnett who is 39.
If you believe, as I do, that the Sox absolutely have to add at least one ace-level pitcher by trade or FA signing, almost certainly that pitcher's name is on this list. Acquiring an ace much under the age of 30 obviously is much easier said than done.
Clayton Kershaw Dodgers 28 Max Scherzer Nationals 32 Chris Sale White Sox 27 Corey Kluber Indians 30 Dallas Keuchel Astros 28 Chris Archer Rays 27 Zack Greinke* Dodgers 32 Jacob deGrom Mets 28 Jake Arrieta Cubs 30 Sonny Gray Athletics 26 David Price* Tigers 30 Gerrit Cole Pirates 25 Jon Lester Cubs 32 Clay Buchholz* Red Sox 31 Johnny Cueto* KC 30 Carlos Carrasco Indians 29 Michael Pineda Yankees 27 Jose Quintana White Sox 27 Lance Lynn Cardinals 29 Cole Hamels Rangers 32 Francisco Liriano Pirates 32 Tyson Ross Padres 29 A.J. Burnett* Pirates 39 Scott Kazmir* Astros 32 Madison Bumgarner Giants 27 Average age 29.6 without Burnett 29.1 * Possible FA in 2015
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 1, 2015 17:33:19 GMT -5
No because one or two or those lefties could be traded in a deal for another starter, or for a slugger.
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 1, 2015 17:27:52 GMT -5
It's time to bring up Johnson and Owens. Kelly should go to the bullpen. I think he could do very well there. Wright was impressive but I think he also belongs in the pen. In fact, I think the two of them could significantly improve the bullpen. The rotation now should be Porcello, Rodriguez, Miley, Johnson and Owens.
That rotation is necessary in order to have an off-season player acquisition strategy that makes sense. I think the Sox still will need to add at least one ace. There needs to be an anchor to this rotation, someone with more experience and greater accomplishment. I think Miley is the best candidate for trading. Porcello probably will be hard to trade because of his contract. Johnson also might be a candidate for a trade but he needs to be seen more in the majors before that can be decided.
I'm feeling bullish today because I've been pitching Shaw for weeks. He should be playing regularly, mostly at 1B where I think he is better suited. However, from what I could tell he wasn't bad at third today, but I only heard about two-thirds of the game.
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 1, 2015 17:21:20 GMT -5
I would not pick up his option under any circumstances. I might consider re-signing him but not for $13M. He's won 73 games in nine seasons, and was sensational in only 3 1/2 of those seasons, one of them being his no-hitter first season, the half being this year. That amount of money could be better spent.
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 1, 2015 12:53:31 GMT -5
Looking through the hitting and pitching averages of the major leagues and comparing those of the Sox, it is not hard to see where major improvements are going to be necessary for the team to be competitive. The pitching has to be improved dramatically. The hitting also needs some improvement.
ERA QS ER R BB SO BAA AL 3.90 51 397 430 286 768 .253 NL 3.77 54 383 416 292 787 .254 BOS 4.50 49 463 500 300 767 .266 27th 19th 28th 28th 21st 16th 25th
R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB% K% BA OBP SLG OPS ISO wOBA wRC+ BOS 432 916 161 22 94 408 7.8 17.2 .256 .319 .392 .711 .136 .311 94 13th 7th 21st 11th 13th 15th 11th 2nd 10th 11th 17th 15th 17th 14th 20th
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Jul 31, 2015 9:49:20 GMT -5
Padres want a SS prospect, badly, we have Guerra. Guerra is BOS' equivalent to MFY's Jorge Mateo. My guess is he would be the ask for Kimbrel. Ross was being shopped for CHC's Baez, so my guess is that some combination of Owens/JBJ or Margot/Johnson would put you in the ballpark, with Guerra/Kimbrel to put the trade over the top. So, my rough guess would be Owens/JBJ/Guerra/Stank or Margot/Johnson/Marrero/Stank for Ross/Kimbrel, with BOS assuming Kimbrel's entire contract. I would then expect BOS to move Koji (I wouldn't be surprised if there was an understanding, subject to getting this deal done.) For the record, if I had the choice between a Carrasco deal and a Ross/Kimbrel deal, I'd go with Carrasco. Carrasco's FB averages a couple of MPH more than Ross's, but overall they are fairly comparable. They both are 28. They both have high strikeout rates. Neither is a control artist. While neither one is an ace, either one would be a good addition to the Sox starting rotation. I can't recall whether Kimbrel is a rental or has one more year. If he is a rental then there is no reason for the Sox to take him unless it is necessary, and worth it, to do a bigger deal.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 31, 2015 9:44:53 GMT -5
Ross is better than I gave him credit for. Didn't realize he had the groundball rate to go with the Ks. Ross is 28, not 30.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 30, 2015 17:14:03 GMT -5
Ackley to Yankees; I have a slight fear that he will find himself in NYC. I wonder if they got him to play 2B. That's been a black hole for them.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 30, 2015 15:43:57 GMT -5
I suspect the Sox tried to trade Nava and didn't get a taker. Maybe something will develop now, but he's not a trade deadline prize.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 30, 2015 15:42:13 GMT -5
Oh good I was really looking forward to a bro-science based discussion of Sandoval's weight. I didn't mean to set one off. I should have put my comment in italics.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 30, 2015 13:10:06 GMT -5
Glad to see the Blue Jays empty their farm system and that David Price won't cost a draft pick. Now the Sox can sign both Price and Cueto without having to give up draft picks.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 30, 2015 13:04:38 GMT -5
They need to get him on a low-carb diet. I've lost 35 lbs since Christmas on one. His build and mine are somewhat similar, although I'm smaller all around. The advantage of a low carb diet is that it provides high energy. You never feel hungry. You just have to stay away from sugar, pasta, bread, potatoes, etc. - and that's the hard part.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 30, 2015 11:39:34 GMT -5
It looks like Toronto is getting Price. That should help them be serious contenders for a Wild Card spot.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 30, 2015 11:37:29 GMT -5
That's good analysis and the kind of thing I was referring to when I wrote I thought there was something in the way he was pitching. I didn't think specifically about the four seamer and two seamer. I wasn't aware he was throwing both at the same time. I think you are right, that isn't a good idea.
Doesn't Kelly have that problem as well, in addition to his others?
This is something the pitching coach should be able to do something about. This is why they have pitching coaches.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 30, 2015 10:26:16 GMT -5
The Sox need to solve the problem at 1B. Sam Travis is beginning to look like a real possibility for the future, probably 2017, but something needs to be done for next year.
I didn't know until today that Sandoval had played 1B in the past, something like 50+ games. So he is a possibility. Hanley is a possibility. I don't think there is anyone else on the current team who would be a candidate unless they considered shifting Castillo. And they only would do that if JBJ shows he can hold one of the OF positions.
I think we can be less concerned about Hanley's fielding going forward. He is doing much better now. I think the urgency of moving him out of LF has passed. Of course, if he doesn't resume hitting, then that's a problem.
It will be interesting to see what the Sox look like after tomorrow. I suspect not much different, although I still am hoping for a big trade or two. San Diego seems like a very good match for a big deal. We'll see.
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