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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 10, 2015 17:35:21 GMT -5
I think we had a discussion about lineup construction. I am not religious about it. Your point is well taken. The thing I would try to avoid is having bad hitters hitting back to back to back - or better yet, not having any bad hitters.
Cook's book, Percentage Baseball, argues that the lineup should go from the best hitter to the worst and he shows with probabilities why more runs will be scored that way. It was tried by Bobby Bragan many years ago but he abandoned it even though his team did do slightly better while it was employed. He abandoned it because his best hitter was Hank Aaron and he didn't want to bat him lead-off. Cook tried to show that Aaron would be his most productive as the leadoff hitter, and the team would score more runs, but the idea went too much against traditional thinking.
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 10, 2015 17:03:17 GMT -5
I've borrowed ericmvan's structure but made some significant alterations:
I am assuming two to four major offseason or late season trades, acquiring one or two top of the rotation starting pitchers, two extremely good relief pitchers, a first baseman and possibly an outfielder. Thus, I have more players leaving the Sox.
Rotation: Trade Acquisition FA sign, Trade Acquisition or Owens Rodriguez Porcello Wright or Johnson or Owens
Bullpen: Uehara 2 Acquisitions, one LH one RH both late inning high quality, at least one closer quality 5 of Light, Kelly, Tazawa, Ross, Machi, Layne, Aro, Barnes, Cook, Hembree, Ramirez, Workman or Escobar keeping at least five at Pawtucket and probably switching among all ten, maybe even adding a couple more to the mix.
Lineup: Betts 7 Pedroia 4 Bogaerts 6 Ortiz 0 Acquisition 3 Castillo 9 or acquisition or Ramirez 7 and Betts 9 Sandoval 5 Swihart 2 or Vazquez Bradley 8
Bench: Hanigan Holt Shaw De Aza or Castillo
Option not picked up: Buchholz Traded: Swihart or Vazquez, Miley, Marrero, Cecchini, Wright or Johnson, Margot, H. Ramirez, and perhaps one or more of the RPs above and other minor league players TBD FA: Breslow DFAd: Varvaro, Coyle, Brentz, Ogando
Optioned Players
PP Hernandez Rutledge
SP: Buttrey RP: Five of the list above
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Aug 10, 2015 14:58:58 GMT -5
Koji to the DL, per PeteAbe. Machi to close. Two bullpen spots are open, and Betts to be taken off DL. Presumably, Marrero to go back to Pawtucket and two AAA relievers (Cook/Layne?) to be called up before Tuesday's game. I'd like to see Pat Light get a taste of the majors. He probably isn't quite ready yet but I don't think it would hurt him to get a try out.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Aug 9, 2015 21:07:07 GMT -5
I have two grand nephews who may be baseball phenoms. They play on traveling teams that go all over the East, and during the winter, they play in indoor facilities. Basically, they are playing all year round and one just turned 13 and the other is two years younger. They are part of a family tradition I started of being fanatical Red Sox fans.
I remember Pedro Martinez saying that when he was a kid he threw all the time, and almost all fastballs. He said all the kids of his generation in the Dominican did that. He thought it strengthened his arm.
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 9, 2015 20:56:19 GMT -5
Not likely. They wouldn't DFA him if they had a deal in the works. This was overdue. He had no future with the Sox.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Aug 9, 2015 18:29:19 GMT -5
Yes, it means he has more time to improve. But right now he is not the player that Bradley was when he was at Portland. Perhaps the Sox will not rush him like they did Bradley. That's like saying that Xander Bogaerts wasn't the player Daniel Nava was in the majors last year. You guys missed my point, which was in response to some posting about Margot being in the Sox OF in 2017. Maybe I should have structured it differently. What I meant is that Margot is not close to being ready for the big leagues. One more year probably will not be enough because he is not as advanced as was JBJ when he was at AA. However, I don't think his age has much to do with the difference between their fielding and throwing skills. From all reports, Margot is very good, but JBJ is in a class by himself, probably the best fielding and throwing CF in all of baseball.
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 9, 2015 18:17:40 GMT -5
Right now Hanley is so banged up and out of whack at the plate that he could use some time off, even a visit to the DL.
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 9, 2015 15:39:15 GMT -5
JBJ was two years older at the same levels that Margot is/was. That's a huge deal. Yes, it means he has more time to improve. But right now he is not the player that Bradley was when he was at Portland. Perhaps the Sox will not rush him like they did Bradley.
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 9, 2015 15:31:45 GMT -5
This might have been a completely different game if the outfield defense had not been so good.
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 9, 2015 15:23:52 GMT -5
Castillo may have to move to LF — Margot is reputed to be the real deal with the glove. Margot is not tearing up Portland (.245/.301/.371/.671 with 1 HR). JBJ hit much better there and also hit much better at Salem. Bradley also is a better fielder. A lot of hype of Margot not yet justified by his stats.
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 9, 2015 15:14:42 GMT -5
Bradley increased his OPS by 126 points today, to .559. His OBP is about double his BA.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Aug 9, 2015 11:53:41 GMT -5
Listening on the radio broadcast to descriptions of JBJ's fielding, it sounds like he truly is a generational phenom fielder. It make me wonder what would happen if they just put him in CF and forgot about his hitting. I know they tried that last year but he is somewhat better now. Is his D so good that it would justify him not hitting much above .200, assuming he could do that?
The assumption here is that Betts moves to left and another good hitter is in RF.
An alternative is to put JBJ in RF but that seems like a bit of a waste and there it is harder to justify his lack of hitting.
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 9, 2015 11:46:47 GMT -5
Quite a few posters here were getting high on Longhi last year when he was raking at Lowell, hitting .330, but without any HRs, before he broke a bone that ended his season. The power surge this year definitely is encouraging. Some big step-ups coming in the next couple of seasons will tell the tale.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Aug 9, 2015 11:40:41 GMT -5
I have zero interest in players that never walk. I knew he didn't walk a lot, but until I just looked it up, I didn't realize how seldom he walks - a remarkably low rate of 4.4%. He has the 5th lowest rate of all outfielders in MLB, 18th among all players. He still has an OBP of .323 because of a BABIP of .332. The Sox already have some players in Cespedes' class of walk-avoidance: Bogaerts at 3.9%, Ramirez at 5.0% and Sandoval at 5.2%. Ortiz, at 12.4% has the highest walk % on the Sox and is 18th highest overall.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Aug 9, 2015 11:09:27 GMT -5
Ortiz and Bogaerts are the only players in today's lineup who were in the opening day lineup.
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 9, 2015 8:49:07 GMT -5
Cespedes is a free agent after this season and he finally has become the player he was expected to be, both offensively and defensively. He has a 4.4 fWAR this season, 6th among all outfielders and 1.1 ahead of Heyward. He'll probably get a good contract but not nearly as much as Heyward.
I doubt the Sox will consider signing Cespedes because they didn't much care for him last year but, considering all the needs of the Sox, he might make more sense than Heyward.
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 8, 2015 11:36:32 GMT -5
Every team today has money. Some have more than others, but no one is poor. You have to be a billionaire to get approved to buy a team. Beane has been about as limited financially as any GM in baseball, but he still spends money now and then. However, he doesn't get stuck with bad contracts very often.
He has an uncanny knack of getting prime year production out of players - sometimes players other teams have given up on or don't believe will develop, including a number of former Sox players - and then he sends them on their way.
It is not fair to judge a GM, or a team, by whether they win the WS. That is a crap shoot. But being competitive almost every year is a significant achievement and Beane has been among the best in doing that.
I think he now is an owner of the A's and I doubt he is going anywhere.
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 8, 2015 11:27:30 GMT -5
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 8, 2015 11:22:22 GMT -5
Long before radar guns and Dr. Andrews, we were told that throwing screwballs and curveballs caused elbow problems, especially for teenagers. Many coaches wouldn't allow kids to throw breaking stuff. Kids threw fastballs most of the time. I know I hurt my elbow throwing a screwball because I remember the pain when it happened. The elbow still hurts on occasion.
We were taught standard windups and the stretch position. It wasn't until (I think) Bob Turley came along with his no windup style that things began to change. Yes, there were some major league pitchers with exaggerated windups, but in amateur ball, as I recall, it was pretty unusual.
Of course, in those years there wasn't nearly the knowledge of sports medicine and how various injuries occurred and/or could be prevented, or at least diminished. When a pitcher suffered a serious elbow or shoulder injury his career usually was over.
Still, I wonder whether the twisting stress of throwing curves, sliders, and cutters still may be more responsible for injuries than throwing hard. But I am just speculating.
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 7, 2015 14:00:06 GMT -5
His fastball has ticked down a bit the last two years since his last really good season in 2013. His FB then averaged 93.1 and it is down to 91.8 now. Not a huge change but if he also is having some command problems, it may explain the huge increase in HRs allowed.
He hasn't been a very durable pitcher for much of his career but when he is healthy he is pretty good, a 3-4 starter. I've always liked him but unless he is cheap, I think I would rather see the Sox get a pitcher like him a little younger and a little more durable.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Aug 7, 2015 13:35:51 GMT -5
As I recall his nick name was Stone Fingers. Dr. Strangeglove is what I recall. Both were used at various times. He was that bad. But he could demolish a baseball when he had a bat in his hand instead of a glove. He hit 66 HRs in A ball in 1956 and 220 in his eight full seasons in the majors with Pittsburgh, Boston and Philadelphia. He played a little for some other teams and a couple of years in Japan, during one of which he hit 33 HRs. But his career effectively was over when he was 33. With the Sox in 1963 and 64 he hit 42 and 33 HRs and he led the league in RBIs in 63 with 118. His career slash line was .264/.316/.489/.806 with an OPS+ of 117. He had a career bWAR of 7.8 but am oWAR of 14.8 and a dWAR of -12.9.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Aug 6, 2015 22:20:34 GMT -5
One other thought. Most of us either weren't around or never saw Dick Stuart play for the Red Sox. If we did, he would resemble the 1b version of what Hanley Ramirez the LF has been this year. Stuart didn't give a crap about defense. He wanted to do one thing and one thing only, hit home runs. I think Hanley has the same mindset. I think everything about him this year is geared toward hitting home runs and nothing else. He sculpted his body to hit home runs. Meanwhile he stopped being patient at the plate, and his defense in LF is every bit as brutal as Stuart's was at 1b. I think for those who remember Stuart, Hanley is playing in a similar fashion, which is too bad, because he used to be a very good all around player. Not long after I was old enough to drive, I took a group of teenagers to Cleveland from our home in Western New York to see a Red Sox-Cleveland doubleheader (the Sox won both games). The highlight for us was giving Dick Stuart a standing ovation for picking up a paper wrapper near first base. He stared at us for several seconds.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Aug 6, 2015 17:08:17 GMT -5
“@brianmacp: Cherington did not sound like the plan is to move Ramirez or Sandoval to another position in the second half. His words:” “@brianmacp: ”We’re more focused on how we continue to help guys in the spots they’re in show us what they can do, figure out what their ceilings are.“” He's being consistent with what he has said previously. So far as I can tell all of the "move Ramirez or Sandoval" talk has come from the media and fan sites. There's been no encouragement of the idea by the Sox. And thus, it isn't happening.
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 6, 2015 17:05:55 GMT -5
btw, for anyone else who believes this team should roll the dice on a high end 30 year old free agent starter, this class is better than next year's class in terms of overall depth. Here are your 2016-17 FAs Per MLB trade Rumor (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/03/2016-17-mlb-free-agents.html): If you believe this is part of the fix, then 2016-17 affords a bit more opportunity for current excellence, assuming the options below on the very good pitchers are exercised. Cueto and Price are elite. No one below without a team option is with the exception, perhaps, Strausberg, who has a red-flag injury history so is to be avoided. Brandon Beachy (30) Andrew Cashner (30) Jesse Chavez (33) Josh Collmenter (31) — $2.25MM club option with a $150K buyout John Danks (32) Jorge De La Rosa (36) Scott Feldman (34) Dillon Gee (30) Gio Gonzalez (31) — $12MM club option with a $500K buyout Jason Hammel (34) — $10MM club option with a $2MM buyout Jeremy Hellickson (30) Derek Holland (30) — $11MM club option with a $1MM buyout Edwin Jackson (33) Kris Medlen (31) — $10MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout Matt Moore (28) — $7MM club option with a $2.5MM buyout Charlie Morton (33) — $9.5MM club option with a $1MM buyout Jon Niese (30) — $10MM club option with a $500K buyout Ivan Nova (30) Jake Peavy (36) Yusmeiro Petit (32) CC Sabathia (36) — $25MM vesting option with a $5MM buyout Stephen Strasburg (28) Josh Tomlin (32) Edinson Volquez (33) — $10MM mutual option with a $3MM buyout Jered Weaver (34) C.J. Wilson (36) Travis Wood (30) Good info. Yes, it appears that if the Sox want to acquire an ace, and a trade doesn't work, they have to make their move this off-season. I like Price better than Cueto but there probably is a better chance of signing Cueto. Both will be horribly expensive.
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 6, 2015 17:01:42 GMT -5
1- swing a Pablo for shields deal and play holt at 3B 2- sign Zimmerman or other FA 3-GET SOME BULLPEN HELP Shields is a flyball pitcher who probably would get bombed in Fenway. He's not doing all that great in the biggest park in baseball. He's also too old. The pitchers with SD who should be the targets are Ross and Kimbrel. Why do you think Holt is a better choice at 3B than Pablo? He won't hit as well and his defense is no better, maybe not as good. He hits in spurts but when he plays regularly his hitting tends to drop off, as it currently has done since he took Pedroia's place. The Sox need more hitting, not less. Pablo is not the problem for the Sox. The hitting problems are at 1B and RF. Let's not have one at 3B. You may be trying to save money, which I think is a fool's errand in this day of MLB. The Sox have plenty of money and they could afford to go over the limit. However, I am not opposed to trading Sandoval so long as there is at least as good a replacement at 3B. I don't think Holt is that player. 2- I assume you mean Zimmermann the pitcher? He's not an ace. He's a middle of the rotation starter. The Sox need an ace or two. Even for the Sox, he'll be too expensive for the value he will deliver. 3- Definitely.
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