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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 16, 2015 17:31:50 GMT -5
Trying to get three innings out of Breslow was the victory of hope over experience. The same was true with trying to get Ortiz home. Two pretty poor management/coaching decisions.
I particularly don't get the Ortiz thing. The game was tied. The winning run was going to be at third and the team was hot. The worst that could happen by not trying to score was that the game remained tied. But there was a reasonable chance the next batter might knock the winning run. Something could happen. But that possibility was ruled out by the reckless attempt to have Ortiz score.
I'm not nearly as down on Breslow as many are, and he did a very good job for two innings. That was more than the team had a right to expect. Again, pushing well beyond reasonable probabilities.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Aug 16, 2015 15:18:07 GMT -5
Looking at one team's drafting record in a vaccum isn't very instructive. Tell me how the other 29 teams drafted during that same period and I'll tell you if the Red Sox did a "good" job or not. Also it's bizarre to me that you're down on their drafting overall and then cite 2014 as potentially the "best draft ever." Travis is a low-ceiling player, Chavis is having a down year, and while Kopech has a lot of upside he did hit a fairly significant bump in the road that ended his season. It could end up being a fine draft, I just don't understand singling it out for hyperbole. I wasn't rating the Sox drafting against other teams. My point is that it didn't produce much for five years. I haven't looked at other teams, but based on the records of many other teams, I would be willing to bet that quite a few did much better. Your other point is a reasonable one. That may be an overstatement. It just appears to me that there are quite a few more players in this draft class with considerable potential than in most others. It will take another year or so to see who is realizing his potential. Incidentally, I don't think Chavis is having a down year. Look at his recent stats. He does have a high strikeout rate, but he has been doing much better recently and he is closing in on the lead in HRs in the system. And I don't think the Kopech thing will mean anything in another year.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Aug 16, 2015 15:06:38 GMT -5
Who should they have picked instead of Ball? Who was available that they could have had instead who would have been better? Meadows? Dozier? Maybe Shipley. I wonder what people on this board would have thought on draft night if they had taken one of these others or perhaps someone else. I am not sure there was an obvious other choice given where they picked and who was available. Of course, I am as disappointed as everyone else at how he is turning out. I went through the players picked after Ball in the first round of the 2013 draft. I also read Jim Callis' analysis of the picks. There were many players who were better choices than Ball, at least choices that offered lower risk. Ball was a high-risk pick, supposedly high reward, also. Even Callis liked the pick but in retrospect I think he was greatly overrated on limited data. Here is a list of the players drafted after him who have had better records in the minors. Several already have made it to the majors, all pitchers, I think. There also are some hitters who definitely look like major league "impact" players. I also show if they currently are listed in a 2015 top 100 prospect list. Ball is not. There are draftees listed in pre-season top 100 prospect lists that I have not listed either because their 2015 record is poor, or I don't think the Sox would have drafted them for various reasons. 9-Austin Meadows, Pirates BA-41, MLB-46 11-Dominic Smith, Mets 12-D.J. Peterson, Seattle BA-85 MLB-50 BP-62 16-J.P. Crawford, Phillies BA-14 MLB-21 BP-36 17-Tim Anderson, White Sox, BA-92, MLB-76 BP-39 19-Marco Gonzales, Cardinals BA-50, BP-52 22-Hunter Harvey, Orioles BA-68 MLB-41 BP-20 23-ChiChi Gonzales, Rangers BA-87 MLB-97 BP-29 24-Billy McKinney, Braves BA-83 BP-81 25-Christian Arroyo, Giants 28-Rob Kaminsky, Cardinals 32-Aaron Judge, Yankees BA-53, MLB-68 BP-49 33-Ian Clarkin, Yankees 34-Seth Manaea, Royals BA-81 MLB-56 BP-85 36-Aaron Blair, Diamondbacks BA-40 MLB-81 BP-43 38-Michael Lorenzen, Reds, BP-63 39-Corey Knebel, Tigers
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Aug 16, 2015 12:02:46 GMT -5
An examination of the Sox draft results from 2005 through 2012 explains a lot of the problems the Sox have had in recent years. The Sox have drafted exceptionally well in only two of those years, 2005 and 2011. There were only six Red Sox draftees between 2006 and 2010 who became successful major league players, but only two of them with the Sox.
From the 2006 class: Brandon Belt, who did not sign with the Sox, Josh Reddick, Dan Bard and Justin Masterson. Of course, Reddick and Masterson were traded away before their best major league seasons, and Dan Bard's career was like a meteor's, very bright for a very short time.
2007: Anthony Rizzo, enough said already.
2008: Christian Vazquez
2009: None
2010: None
2011 is a bonanza with Barnes, Swihart, Owens, Bradley, Jerez, Weems, Noe Ramirez and Mookie Betts - remarkably - the team's first eight draftees still in the organization, with five already having had major league experience. And the class also includes Travis Shaw. So it is possible that four starting position players next year could come from this class as well as all four pitchers having some time with the Sox.
2012: Twelve of the team's first 14 picks still are with the organization and two have made it to the Sox, Deven Marrero and Brian Johnson. Several others seem to have good chances of making it to the majors. At this point, only Johnson and possibly Pat Light appear to have the best chances of being regulars, but several others still are young and developing.
2013: It still is too early to assess this class but so far it does not appear to be exceptional - and that is intended to be diplomatic. The top pick, Trey Ball, has not lived up to his hype. I went back and read Jim Callis' analysis of the first round picks in 2013 and he was very high on Ball. Based on his ratings at the time, it appeared to be a good pick. However, now looking back at the rest of the first round picks it doesn't look nearly so good. One could almost throw a dart at a list of the players drafted in the first round after Ball and hit someone better, and quite a few significantly better. Several already have appeared in the majors. A number of hitters are showing "impact" type performances in the minors. Right now the player showing the best potential from this class may be Nick Longhi, one of the exceptional players on the prospect-loaded Greenville team.
The class of 2014 is loaded with potential. It might turn out to be one of the best draft classes ever. There are a number of very young, very promising players. Sam Travis seems closest to the majors and he might make it sometime next year. It probably will be another year before it will be reasonable to assess most of the others.
The top pick this year, Benentendi, looks like a major league impact player, maybe the best since Rizzo. There are some interesting arms in the group.
A lot of the future of the Sox in the low minors is coming from international signs, and I am not dealing with them in this post because my focus was on the performance of the Sox in the drafts. I think it is not hard to conclude that with some notable exceptions, it was not very good in the period 2006-2010.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Aug 16, 2015 9:14:50 GMT -5
There is a problem with the coding of the News links. This is what I get when I click on any of them: Forbidden You don't have permission to access /partner_widgets/red_sox_widget/: Non-static method SimplePie_Misc::absolutize_url() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in on line : Non-static method SimplePie_Misc::parse_url() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in on line : Non-static method SimplePie_Misc::compress_parse_url() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in on line : Non-static method SimplePie_Misc::normalize_url() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in on line : Non-static method SimplePie_Misc::percent_encoding_normalization() should not be called statically in on line : Non-static method SimplePie_Misc::parse_url() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in on line : Non-static method SimplePie_Misc::remove_dot_segments() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in on line : Non-static method SimplePie_Misc::compress_parse_url() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in on line : Non-static method SimplePie_Misc::is_isegment_nz_nc() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in on line : Non-static method SimplePie_Misc::array_unique() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in on line fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2015/08/15/rick-porcellos-new-approach-sense-of-humor-on-display-with-spinners/ on this server.
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Aug 16, 2015 8:53:46 GMT -5
“@scottlauber: Key to JBJ’s huge week? According to asst hitting coach Victor Rodriguez, it may be elimination of slight leg kick that slowed his swing” No kidding. I harped on this last year. He had too many moving parts including that leg kick.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Aug 15, 2015 16:18:40 GMT -5
Only 29 ABs but JBJ is hitting .448 against LHPs.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Aug 15, 2015 14:36:48 GMT -5
At this rate, the Sox seem trying to eliminate their negative run differential this weekend.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Aug 15, 2015 13:43:14 GMT -5
Hernandez's average FB speed this year according to thebaseballcube is 92.12 but he only threw a handfull of FBs at 92 and none higher. Most of his pitches were in the mid to high 80s. His command was terrible, also. If I were a Seattle fan I would be worried.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Aug 15, 2015 12:04:14 GMT -5
Right. I forgot about Wright.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Aug 15, 2015 11:10:38 GMT -5
Castillo, or Hanley, must be going on the DL.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Aug 14, 2015 17:24:40 GMT -5
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Aug 14, 2015 17:20:36 GMT -5
Some of you seem to have forgotten that a few years ago there were many concerned about Ortiz's weight. There even was a photo one year like the one of Sandoval this year. Some of you share a prejudice against overweight people and attribute bad character to them. I think doing that is a real show of bad character. Weight isn't. Criticizing his performance is absolutely fair and he deserves criticism for that. Leave it at that. Nothing to do with judge of character. Simply to do with performance. I'm a heavy guy myself and every year it is harder to keep at a reasonable weight and at a certain size nobody can argue that one would be a poorer player. We are not talking 10 lbs overweight here. Pablo is a professional athlete and given his past and body type/style, nobody expected him to be a slim guy or play at a "skinny" weight. But when ones performance is down you start to look at why. Could it by his size? Not gauanteed, but most likely has at least something to do with it. The Sox invested 88M$ into this player and I think it is fair to be able to ask questions and even criticize hin a little bit. What you wrote is reasonable, but many of the comments made about him are vicious and demeaning. I've known thin people who could eat anything and not gain weight even when they wanted to. I've known heavy people who couldn't lose weight it seemed no matter what they did. There are many different kinds of metabolism and body types and entire cultures where people are small and thin or big boned and heavy. I've pretty much conquered a weight problem I had - I'm still about 15 lbs from where I should be but closing in - but it has taken a very concerted effort over an extended period of time, including a substantial change of diet and various forms of physical activity. But what works for me won't work for many other people. It is hard for many people who never have had weight problems to understand those who do unless they make the effort to understand human body chemistry.
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Aug 14, 2015 15:25:02 GMT -5
Some of you seem to have forgotten that a few years ago there were many concerned about Ortiz's weight. There even was a photo one year like the one of Sandoval this year.
Some of you share a prejudice against overweight people and attribute bad character to them. I think doing that is a real show of bad character. Weight isn't.
Criticizing his performance is absolutely fair and he deserves criticism for that. Leave it at that.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Aug 14, 2015 15:18:22 GMT -5
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 14, 2015 14:57:14 GMT -5
I couldn't find a more relevant thread but I thought there would be some interest in BA's "Best Tools" ratings for Class A. Greenville has the top defenders at catcher, 1B, SS and 3B and the pitcher with the best fastball. Interestly, Moncada is nowhere on the list. www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2015-low-class-best-tools/
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Aug 14, 2015 10:57:54 GMT -5
I have not read a recent assessment of Swihart's catching skills. How is he doing now?
I didn't mean to propose he be moved to 1B. What I wrote was in the spirit of things that could be done, like putting Hanley or Sandoval at first, not necessarily that should be done. I agree that the best use of him, if he is not the starting catcher of the future for the Sox, is to trade him in a big deal that returns a top talent, preferably a youngish ace pitcher.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Aug 13, 2015 23:13:59 GMT -5
My concern about Hanley at 1B - although I'm game to try him there - is that he will get hurt, repeatedly. I think he has the same fear. He said something early in the season about not wanting to play in the infield again because of all the bending.
The guy who probably would be a really good defensive 1B is Swihart, but it's too early to tell whether he will hit enough.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Aug 13, 2015 23:08:16 GMT -5
Ted Williams once said do not judge any young hitter until he has had 1,000 at bats in the majors that's about 2 seasons and it still appears to be right even in todays game. After Ted Williams had about 1,000 ABs in the majors, he hit .406.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Aug 13, 2015 23:01:49 GMT -5
Hmm.. As in mold of Alexander Stevens, or Benjamin Harrison? The Whig Party had some.. Lets say "odd" ideals. That's funny. I was just the last couple of days reading sections of The Rise and Fall of the Whig Party by Michael Holt. I have a section about Henry Clay, one of the Whig Party founders, in a book I am writing about progressivism. Some of his ideas (which he borrowed from Alexander Hamilton) are similar to some of those of Sanders and other progressives.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Aug 11, 2015 14:52:54 GMT -5
When I was a kid the Buffalo Bisons were a locally owned (I think publicly-owned) AAA team that was an affiliate of Philadelphia, but also had some of their own players on the roster. There were a number of minor league teams owned and operated semi-independently like the Bisons. They would make trades and sign free agents every season. They did play to win and the Bisons had good attendance.
I remember one time when the Phillies called up one of the players under contract to Buffalo and not owned by the Phillies. I think it was Luke Easter, a power-hitting 1B who happened to be the best player on the team. Of course, Easter went, but the team, and many locals, raised hell. Eventually, he was sent back to Buffalo and he played under contract to the Bisons for several more years.
While there still are many privately owned minor league teams, some of which have become fairly lucrative, I don't know of any now that acquire any of their own players.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Aug 11, 2015 14:36:30 GMT -5
I wonder if this kid can be the Sox's Kris Bryant and make it to the show in two years?
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Aug 11, 2015 12:43:31 GMT -5
I haven't looked at whatever major league-ready minor league first base prospects might be acquired, but among major league 1Bs, Chris Davis is about the only really good option. And by that I mean that if the Sox are going to have a power-hitting first baseman in the general quality of Napoli 2013, which really is what the team needs, there aren't any other obvious choices, and I include Hanley among them.
Using fangraphs ratings, Davis has a WAR if 3.0 and only Goldschmidt, Votto, Rizzo, Gonzalez and Teixeira are higher. None of those is a candidate for acquisition.
Immediately below Davis are Belt, Hosmer, Duda, Abreu, Pujols and Moreland. Except for Belt and Moreland, according to fangraphs' ratings, the rest are crappy defenders, considerably worse than Davis, who surprisingly to me, comes out as one of the best defenders among all 1Bs. He is fourth best among all 1Bs and second only to Belt among the ones worth having.
He's going to be 30 next year so he still is in his "prime years," but at the back end of them. He ought to have two or three years of premium production and, barring serious injury, some decent ones after that.
It would mean keeping Hanley in LF for another year, unless he were traded, which is my preference. I am not optimistic that he will be a good 1B. I've even become somewhat skeptical of his offensive value.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Aug 10, 2015 19:11:59 GMT -5
The Sox signed Rich Hill today to a minor league deal.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Aug 10, 2015 18:59:48 GMT -5
You misread my post. I am not arguing for that theory. My intent was to point out that there are many theories of lineup construction and Cook's is interesting and very unusual. Give me the title of that book again. I will get it. Nevermind, I clicked on your link. AND I BOUGHT THE BOOK. Thanks for reminding me.
I am not a disciple of Cook but I think he was ahead of his time and in many areas his ideas still are correct: i.e. don't use the sacrifice bunt. I am fascinated with the many different ways baseball analysts have developed to try to explain the great game, without being committed to any one of them.
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