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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 9, 2015 13:02:31 GMT -5
Thanks for the support on Ortiz.
As I previously have written ad nauseam, I am not a big fan of WAR of any kind, but in this case the bWAR ratings of Bogaerts and Betts probably are fair. They certainly are the most promising players to break in at their ages with the Sox at the same since Lynn and Rice. Rice was 22 but Lynn was 23.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 9, 2015 12:50:28 GMT -5
Brakeman is an economics major at Stanford so he probably is very smart and understands money and leverage. His leverage now is higher than it probably will be next year - unless he has a sensationally better season and is one of the top players in the draft. I don't know if that is realistic.
I just looked at his Stanford page. He was a catcher in high school. He only became a starting pitcher this year. He has developed rather rapidly. So maybe it is possible that he could be much better next year.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 9, 2015 12:39:32 GMT -5
Am a Ortiz fan also, though being 40YO didn't stop HOF like Yaz from playing both LF and 1b more than 50 games combined during the 1980 season and still playing in the field some up until he retired in 1983. Dwight Evans playing nearly 70 games in RF at the age of 40 in '91. I have no pity for someone who doesn't want to play 1b a few games each week in the field. Those are not good examples for comparision. They both had different body builds and they both were position players all along. Ortiz has not been a position player except for some interleague and post-season games for many years. His body is not accustomed to it. His muscles are not trained for it. And I don't think he said he didn't want to play. In fact, Bradford said on the radio that Ortiz said he liked playing on the field. What he said was he didn't his body could take it. Too much is being made of something that basically is common sense. And no one on the team is complaining about what Ortiz said. Bradford predicted that there would be an outcry but not from anyone on the team, from the people who really know Ortiz.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 9, 2015 11:15:25 GMT -5
He is much more likely to get hurt playing first. Is he really, though? I think there's some increased injury risk, but I'm skeptical that it's meaningful/significant enough to be worth complaining about. They aren't putting him in the outfield where he has to sprint to chase balls down. At first base, he doesn't ever have to really move more than ten feet, and I'm sure they'd be happy to instruct him to avoid the rangier plays (foul popups or popups far behind first base, fielding bunts, etc). He has a history of foot, leg and knee injuries. There are any number of ways he can get hurt at 1B, especially - and this was my point - compared to sitting on the bench as a DH. I can't imagine why you would argue this.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 9, 2015 10:58:40 GMT -5
Ortiz's importance to the Sox is his bat. He is much more likely to get hurt playing first. Everyone should know that. They are taking a big chance by playing him there. And the more it is done the more likely he will get hurt. He knows that and it bothers him, as it should.
Ortiz always says what he is thinking. There's no deception there. But whatever he says, he doesn't take it on the field, as was evidenced last night.
This isn't the same kind of "me, me, me" that we saw with Manny - and for which he was called out by Ortiz - it is just honest candor about the reality of the situation.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 8, 2015 16:38:29 GMT -5
Ortiz is starting at 1B tonight.
Betts CF Holt 2B Bogaerts SS Ortiz 1B Ramirez DH Sandoval 3B Victorino RF De Aza LF Hanigan C
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 8, 2015 11:19:57 GMT -5
I think you might be underestimating Shaw. He can't really be assessed until he gets more playing time with the Sox. He might turn out to be a solid major league regular if he gets a chance.
He has had a history of taking a while to adjust to each level, but he has adjusted. He has been just about the best power hitter in the entire system for the last couple of years. He has a good baseball pedigree. He has improved his defense at both third and first. He runs well. Overall, he has the fundamentals down pretty well.
I don't know if he can hold down the 1B job with the Sox, but I think there is a decent chance he could - or will - somewhere.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 8, 2015 11:10:15 GMT -5
So now 26 draftees have been signed. Ten days left. Who else is likely to sign?
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 7, 2015 16:46:20 GMT -5
The shortstop who will succeed Bogaerts if he left for FA hasn't been drafted yet. A lot can happen in five years. I wouldn't put a lot of energy into trying to extend him, not only because Boras is his agent, but also because it simply is too in the future. Two or three years from now is the time to work on this if it still seems desirable.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 7, 2015 16:38:46 GMT -5
This is Shaw's opportunity. I hope he makes the best of it.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Jul 7, 2015 13:17:53 GMT -5
Right now the Sox have more high ceiling prospects in the minor leagues than I can ever recall them having at one time in the past. They probably could get some quite good major league players in trades at the deadline if they were willing to part with the best ones.
However, if the Sox hang on to the best prospects, in two to three years almost the entire team could be composed of young players, most of them above average to exceptional. Because even the best young prospects often don't develop as expected, and because injuries will derail some, not all these prospects will make it. But there are enough that it probably is a reasonable bet that several key positions will be filled by them in the not too distant future, possibly including most of the starting pitcher slots.
That team of young players could be a dynasty, a dominant team, for quite a few years.
So, if my basic assumptions are reasonable, should the Sox hang on to these prospects and fill current holes on the team with FA signs and trades of existing ML players? Or should they use their rising values to acquire some top major league talent now?
I think it was John Lennon who said that life is what happens while you are planning something else, and that sure has been what I have experienced. So I usually lean towards maximizing realistic present opportunities. However, on this question I am somewhat ambivalent.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 7, 2015 13:04:09 GMT -5
I read several articles about Park and in one of them he was compared to Chris Davis, which, when one looks at his stats, makes some sense. Terrific power but many swings and misses.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 6, 2015 17:14:57 GMT -5
Barnes' command isn't quite there yet. Those 97 MPH fastballs go long distances when they are put over the heart of the plate.
The BP is almost shot from overwork. Fresh - or fresher - arms are needed. It makes sense to keep giving some tryouts to the guys at Pawtucket for at least the rest of the month. But if they keep on their current pace and get closer to contention, making significant improvements in the bullpen will become increasingly important. And that probably will require an acquisition or two.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 6, 2015 17:09:04 GMT -5
The major questions right now are what are they going to do with Napoli, how are they going to boost the rotation, and how are they going to improve the bullpen?
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 6, 2015 15:30:44 GMT -5
At some point in the next couple of years one of the Sox minor league teams might have a middle infield of De La Guerra and Guerra.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 5, 2015 22:52:16 GMT -5
I recall a trade during the 2004 season that had a very significant effect on the outcome of that season.
Every team in the AL East has weaknesses and the result is that no team has really broken out. If a team is willing to pay the prices, there will be good players to be had in the next few weeks. I'm not making an argument for it, just stating a fact.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 5, 2015 17:51:03 GMT -5
That fangraphs spreadsheet is fascinating. So many teams clustered slightly above or below .500, especially in the AL. That being the case, I don't see how they can do projections with much confidence, considering that trades made this month could make the difference for any number of teams.
For example, the Sox now are hitting fairly well, in fact, among the best teams in the AL, and there still are holes in the lineup. The pitching still is problematical, both starting and relieving.
But if the Sox somehow came up with another good bat, a couple of good starters and a couple of good RPS, they could become a formidable second-half team. That doesn't necessarily mean the post-season because any of the teams ahead of them could improve equally, or more. And the cost in prospects to make these improvements would be significant.
If the Sox are at or above .500 come deadline time, there is going to be real pressure to make some major moves.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 5, 2015 10:25:54 GMT -5
As athletic as he appears to be, it has occurred to me that DeAza might be able to play 1B. Right now, today's lineup is the best the Sox can do. When Pedroia comes back, if everyone still is healthy, then maybe Holt moves to 1B unless a 1B has been acquired by then....
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 3, 2015 13:59:21 GMT -5
As an alternative idea that is more practical at this point, Holt is a better choice at 1B than Napoli. I am sorry to write that because I like Napoli, but something terrible has happened to him and it doesn't look like it is going to get fixed, at least not this year.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 3, 2015 13:56:36 GMT -5
Ortiz at first is just not a realistic option despite how nice it sounds. Maybe a day a week or something, but he'd be broken in a month if you put him out there every day. It's too bad they can't figure out some strict platoon with Ortiz/Napoli/Hanley at 1B/DH. Maybe Hanley and Napoli against lefties and Hanley and Ortiz against righties. Maybe only let Ortiz play first if he has the next day off (LH starting pitcher next day?) But asking Ortiz to play 1B 2 out of every 3 games is a recipe for disaster; there is probably a good reason he hasn't player more than ten games at 1B since 2004. Of course, you are right. Notice that I used the word "ideally" rather than "practically."
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 3, 2015 12:58:34 GMT -5
It's just pure speculation, not good baseball analysis, to predict that Porcello will not be worth his pay. It is based on a relatively small sample size of poor performance with the Sox, ignoring his past.
The reason Porcello is pitching poorly is that he is not pitching like he did in the past. He isn't Rick Porcello. If he recovers himself, he will be a good pitcher for the Sox. I'm not saying he will. There are examples of pitchers who have lost it in the peak of their careers for no apparent reason. That may be possible here, but I doubt it. The problems he has are correctable.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 3, 2015 12:50:20 GMT -5
Because we have seen so little of him for quite a while, it is easy to forget that Victorino is a terrific player when he can play. He is a tremendous defender and he can hit. That's not saying he will hit, given his long layoff, but he has in the past, and he wasn't doing poorly early in the season (.724 OPS). RF has been a virtual zero most of the season in terms of offensive production - almost literally zero except when Holt plays there. Combined with Napoli's season-long slump, the Sox lineup is missing the hitting it needs to have from those two positions.
However, De Aza has been a lightening rod and not only does he deserve to play, I think the team needs him to play. He is showing the others how the game should be played and it seems to be having a very positive impact.
Ideally, I like the idea of putting Ortiz at first, Hanley at DH, De Aza in left and Victorino in right. That probably is the best lineup the Sox can put on the field right now.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 2, 2015 14:48:27 GMT -5
I'm in.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Jul 2, 2015 9:53:40 GMT -5
It is difficult to understand the Sox approach to the outfield.
Early in the season JBJ got called up and played four games - all against some of the top pitchers in MLB. He didn't get a hit and got sent back down. Between May 23 and June 12, Castillo had 15 hits in 16 games, including three hits on the 12th. He wasn't showing much power, but he was hitting some. He then slumped, getting only two hits in the next five games. A short time later he was sent down.
JBJ got a long tryout last year and it didn't work out well. However, by every account, he changed his batting stance and swing this year and corrected a lot of his problems. It certainly showed in his hitting at Pawtucket. He still hasn't hit a lot with the Sox, but some progress is evident.
Neither player has had a chance to establish himself this year. It is hard to understand why the team has handled them this way, considering the lack, of other possibilities and the potential of both.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 2, 2015 9:20:40 GMT -5
What does a team do when a pitcher's problems are obvious, but he either can't, or won't do what he needs to do to correct them?
Both Kelly and Porcello have similar problems. When they throw hard to try to get strike outs, they get hit hard. Both have had trouble with their command and not being able to keep pitches down in the zone.
In one of John Farrell's pregame radio programs he said that they were trying to get Kelly to understand that when he let up a little bit, he got better results. However, he said that Kelly basically was ignoring the advice. We know what happened to Kelly. They can't do the same with Porcello, but surely there is something they could do.
It is hard to believe that a pitcher with his experience and record can't figure out what he is doing wrong and fix it. A bad stretch is one thing, but this is ridiculous.
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