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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 14, 2015 14:48:50 GMT -5
They signed 22 of their first 24 picks and 28 overall. That's about average, or little above, historically.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 14, 2015 13:35:27 GMT -5
None of those variables are unique to fielding and baserunning. Replace the fielding and baserunning references to hitting ones and your statements remain true. For instance: - However, because most [hitting] events occur when the ball is in play, there literally are infinite variables affecting the outcomes, many of them beyond the player's control. Some of them include how hard a ball has been hit, where it has been hit, conditions of the field, where the fielder was positioned (which often is not his decision), what the visibility situation is, and others.
- Whether a [hitter] tries to [sacrifice] usually is at least partially the responsibility of the [head] coach.
- Whether a [hitter can get a hit] is affected by the pitcher's [pitching ability], the catcher's [game calling and framing] ability [...] and the ability of the fielder to properly [field his position].
- Whether a [hitter gets a hit] depends on the fielding and throwing ability of the defense as much, or more as on his [hitting] ability, and those skills obviously vary infinitely.
It's fair to say that baserunning and fielding metrics have higher error bars because of smaller sample sizes and sketchier inputs (particularly on the fielding side). But you're exaggerating the magnitude of the difference. ------ That's fair comment and well-argued. Good argument usually involves some exaggeration.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 14, 2015 13:31:59 GMT -5
danr, I don't think anyone is holding up WAR as the holy grail be all end all of evaluating a player, and I think you could certainly argue Garciaparra's single season superiority to Valentin's but WAR is absolutely the best method we have publicly available of gauging a player's value over a season or multiple seasons and taking into account everything that player does on the field. Also, I would certainly take Valentin's 95 over Nomar's best season. Unfortunately, they were both aided by the same trainer, the one who helped both of them (in the words of a Globe article I've never been able to find) add strength without costing them agility, which a) only lasted a few years before father time very quickly caught up to each, and b) seemed nearly impossible at the time, and in my eyes, suspect many years later. I note how both had to move off of SS very early in their respective careers. Differences of opinion are fair. Garciaparra did push Valentin to 3B and I know Valentin had some injury problems. Much of Garciaparra's later problems occurred because of a rare ailment he had that caused enlarged scar tissue. That meant that every time he suffered an injury, a greater amount of scar tissue than normal would build up. It began with that wrist injury suffered from an Oriole pitched ball. His wrists were the key to his great hitting and his wrist never was the same again, and thus neither was his swing. I don't look at all players the same and thus WAR ratings don't mean much to me. I look at players in the context of the team and the position. What I want in a shortstop is a whole lot different from what I want in a leftfielder. Or to put it another way, if I have a great hitting shortstop, I can take a chance on a weak hitting but great fielding second baseman. So I look at the individual skills separately and try to balance a team so that overall there is both good fielding and good hitting, but not necessarily both in every position. If my leftfielder hits 40 HRs, but isn't too good defensively, I'd make up for it by having a great fielding CF and shortstop. I write about Sandoval a lot because the hatred of him is irrational. He's not a great 3B. He's not a great hitter. He's better than what the Sox had but not as good as a number of other 3Bs. But in any case, he is not to blame for the Sox failures this year. He has had only one period when he slumped and it was when he was hurt. The Sox would have been worse off without him. He's probably paid more than he should be, but I really don't care about that. I think many players are greatly overpaid, but considering the revenues of baseball, not unfairly overpaid.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 14, 2015 13:16:29 GMT -5
Those are good reads and I appreciate it. I don't have much of a problem with offensive WAR. It makes sense and the data is pretty solid. I question the fielding and baserunning data because there are many variables that are not calculated - and maybe can't be.
I understand the use of averaging and linear weights. I love the chart showing the percentages of average outcomes. Some of that I knew, but I think mostly from experience and observation.
There are things in fielding and baserunning that are validly measured and certainly are factors that should be used in valuing a player. They include things like errors, caught stealing, getting picked off or thrown out. However, because most fielding and baserunning events occur when the ball is in play, there literally are infinite variables affecting the outcomes, many of them beyond the player's control. Some of them include how hard a ball has been hit, where it has been hit, conditions of the field, where the fielder was positioned (which often is not his decision), what the visibility situation is, and others.
Whether a player tries to score usually is at least partially the responsibility of the third base coach. Whether a runner can steal a base is affected by the pitcher's move and time to the plate, the catcher's throwing ability, and timing of his throw, and the ability of the fielder to properly handle the throw and the tag. Whether a runner can successfully take an extra base depends on the fielding and throwing ability of the defense as much, or more as on his baserunning ability, and those skills obviously vary infinitely. I know averages are being used but I question whether the averages really are accurate. Fangraphs thinks more data would not change them significantly. Right now I think it makes sense to lessen the weight given them. In fact, I would not combine the metrics into one WAR rating.
So, my argument is that the weight given to fielding and baserunning does not have as solid a basis in actual fact and performance as does hitting. And I think baserunning probably has considerably less than fielding.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 14, 2015 12:38:03 GMT -5
And a thing about baserunning and fielding. Look at fangraphs ratings of Mike Napoli. He has negatives for both baserunning and fielding, consistently.
Almost everyone on the Red Sox will say that Mike Napoli is the best baserunner on the team, not the fastest, but the smartest. In spring training he is used to teach baserunning to young players.
From every observation of mine, and from all the reports of his performance in the field that I ever have read, Napoli is a superior-fielding firstbaseman. He is so good that his performance has generated much comment over time. Also, this year when it has been down, it really has been noticed.
Now about Garciaparra's baserunning. In 2000 he mostly was hitting cleanup from what I can tell from random boxscores. He had some sluggers hitting behind him. It is not the usual practice in baseball to have runners trying to steal bases in front of the sluggers, the best hitters. Usually the most bases being stolen are done by the leadoff hitter, or sometimes, by hitters way down in the order. But middle of the lineup guys usually don't steal many bases. There are exceptions.
So the fact that he stole so many fewer bases than Valentin basically is irrelevant and should not be a factor in his WAR. What might be a factor is what kind of a baserunner was he? I don't remember, but I don't think he was slow, or dumb. In the stats on Baseball-Reference.com there are stats for taking extra bases, etc., but I don't see how they are useful without more data about opportunities and situations, which, of course, are very hard to quantify. Probably if one went through every play by play of every game, it might be possible to quantify enough to come up with a reasonable metric. Short of that, about the only things that have any relevance are basestealing percentages and maybe being caught off base.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 14, 2015 11:44:59 GMT -5
Unless you believe that players do not differ from one another defensively, there's nothing wrong here at all. [...] So what was the difference between them? Valentin was 20/25 stealing, and Nomar was 5/7. People who don't believe in WAR probably do believe that everyone is equally good at baserunning. Or that it doesn't matter as much as anyone who has actually looked into it thinks, because how could you possibly quantify that? You don't know whether you have Big Papi, who is guaranteed to hit a home run every time, behind them in the order, or Mike Napoli, who is going to strike out anyway, blah blah etc. I mean there are a lot of ways to be ignorant. Just recently someone on this forum postulated that only Clay Buchholz could singlehandedly lead this team to victory, including the days he doesn't start. People don't want to believe that baseball is a game of averages. It is not a matter of ignorance, it is just the opposite. I like facts, hard data, and measurements. I'm very scientific in my thinking and approach. The problem with WAR is that it pretends to be scientific when it fact it is based on a considerable amount of assumption, not facts, particularly when it comes to fielding. Even now there are questions about fielding metrics even though they have improved dramatically. But there were no reliable fielding metrics in 1995 based on actual measurements. Those ratings are very subjective. I don't doubt that Valentin was a better fielder than Garciaparra. I saw both of them play. But Garciaparra in his prime was quite good. The difference was not significant enough to begin to close the gap in offense. Garciaparra was an impact hitter, an intimidating hitter in his prime, one of the best in Sox history. Valentin had a good couple of seasons but never had the offensive impact of Garciaparra. And I don't think that difference in baserunning really has much significance. See, that is where WAR has a problem. Somebody gives it a greater amount of significance but not on any objective basis that I can see. Show me the hard evidence of its value and I'll change my mind. I know WAR is supposed to even out the differences among players and rate their overall value, but I question how it is done and the values assigned to each aspect of performance and how the data is assembled. Winning in baseball occurs by scoring more runs than the number of runs allowed. Good defense and good pitching can reduce the number of runs allowed. Good hitting and baserunning can increase the number of runs scored. A player's value certainly is a combination of his performance at bat, on the field, and on the bases, but how that value is apportioned among those, so far as I can tell, is subjective. How much are 35 HRs worth if the player is not good defensively? A lot may depend on the position he plays but also how are those differences calculated? What factors and assumptions go into the calculation. If you read fangraphs long piece on WAR you will see that there still is debate over this. I am not saying that WAR has no value, just that it should be seen as just one factor in valuing and rating a player, and not the most important one. I think Sandoval is significantly undervalued in WAR this year. His occasional defensive lapses have been given far more weight than they deserve. He isn't routinely doing a poor job defensively. In fact, generally he is pretty good, and sometimes makes some great plays. This is but one example of why I don't trust WAR.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 14, 2015 10:21:45 GMT -5
The two really good RPs out there who seem to be continually mentioned as likely to be traded are Papelbon and Chapman. I'm not proposing a specific deal, or even, necessarily, either of these two, but these are the kind of arms the Sox need in the BP.
I posted this before seeing the post above. I concur that the starting pitching needs to be fixed first, but not to the exclusion of redoing the bullpen. It needs a major makeover.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 14, 2015 10:18:50 GMT -5
Greg Maddox did pretty well almost never throwing anything faster than about 91. .... 1. Greg Maddux threw harder than 91 when he came up. 2. Greg Maddux had three seasons with over 220 innings and fewer than 30 walks and over 170 strikeouts. The rest of the pitchers in baseball history have three such seasons combined. Two by Cy Young, one by Roy Halladay. 3. Greg Maddux threw a changeup that went sideways and it might not have been his best pitch. 4. Greg Maddux grew up to be Greg Maddux, which is an unrealistic comparison for any other human being. After I posted that, I looked at it and thought, there's something wrong with it. Maybe more than one thing, but definitely something. As to the content, I didn't mean to imply he didn't have dirty stuff. But it was his command that made it so incredible. I'm not saying that Johnson is Maddux, but that the stuff he has may play up because of his command.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 13, 2015 23:04:17 GMT -5
You must be quite young. However, how can you overlook Nomar's seasons 1997-2000. They were Hall of Fame years. If he hadn't been hit by that pitch, he might be in the HOF now. You could make an argument that Valentin's 1995 was better, though ... by bWAR, it was pretty solidly better than any of Nomar's seasons. Jacoby Ellsbury's 2011 could be as good, though. People sorta forget just how awesome that year was. The bWAR's are close (8.3 for Valentin, 8.1 for Ellsbury). There's something wrong with bWAR if it does not value Nomar's 2000 season above Valentin's and anyone else's in recent memory. Slash line: .372/.434/.599/1.033 21 HRs and 51 2Bs. Valentin's slash line in 1995 was .298/.399/.533/932. He hit 27 HRs and 37 2Bs. Ted Williams thought Nomar would hit .400 but then he got hit with that pitch and all kinds of problems resulted that curtailed his career. Tragic. Ells' season was pretty good, also, but not this good. By the way, my memory is a little sketchy. Did Valentin get hurt a short time later? His career went downhill rather quickly beginning in 1999 and ended at the age of 35. There is something about WAR that defies common sense. I just can't accept WAR as a metric of much weight. I know that is against the grain, but I tend to be a contrarian.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 13, 2015 22:48:03 GMT -5
Greg Maddox did pretty well almost never throwing anything faster than about 91.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 13, 2015 19:07:39 GMT -5
Most scouts never have been very high on Johnson. In a key way he is quite different from most young pitchers. He has had exceptionally good control and command all along. That is unusual and it has made his stuff play better than it might have otherwise. There have been many successful major league pitchers who didn't have that wipe-out pitch, and usually their success has been due to command and control. We don't know yet whether Johnson can be one of those, but his record is encouraging.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 13, 2015 19:00:08 GMT -5
This is a good time for my annual reminder that John Valentin's 1995 season was absolutely phenomenal - arguably the best by a Red Sox position player in my lifetime - and nobody seems to remember it. You must be quite young. However, how can you overlook Nomar's seasons 1997-2000. They were Hall of Fame years. If he hadn't been hit by that pitch, he might be in the HOF now.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 13, 2015 16:20:39 GMT -5
My bad. I looked at the standings page on this site and somehow my brain didn't register that the stats for Salem and Greenville were for the second half. Ouch! However, on the hitters, I also looked at the hitting stats of every team, and there just aren't very many players showing much power. More than halfway through the season, Guerra, at 11 HRs, is the leader, with 8 for Chavis and Brentz. There are only seven players with more than 100 ABs with OPS above .800: Jackie Bradley at Pawtucket; Sam Travis and Marco Hernandez at Portland; Guerra at Greenville; and Barriento, Cedrola and Berroa at DSL. There are 21 between .700 and .800, quite a few of them bunched closer to .700. Devers is at .763, Margot at .745 and Moncado at .742 (but rising rapidly).
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 13, 2015 13:09:21 GMT -5
With the exception of Lowell and the GCL Sox, all Sox teams have negative run differentials. The Sox system is not very well equipped with good pitching or power hitting.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 13, 2015 9:40:58 GMT -5
I don't think it is a question of the Sox being buyers or sellers. It is a question of fixing problems with the team not just for this season, but for the future. Those problems primarily are with the pitching, but also with the outfield and with first base.
The Sox bullpen is second rate and needs to be rebuilt. The current bullpen cannot get the team to the postseason this year or in the future. The strategy of rotating replaceable arms in and out isn't working. A core of really good RPs must be assembled. Even the Yankee secondary RPs are better than what the Sox have.
The strategy of having the rotation composed of mid-range pitchers isn't working. Rodriguez looks like a number one or two. At least two more of similar quality are needed. It is time to write off Buchholz as one of them. He is one when he pitches, but even his biggest fans have to admit he can't be counted on.
The best prospects to fill Napoli's shoes are below AAA and are not yet proven. I can't see the team waiting for one. But they have to do something. Napoli has not given any evidence that he is going to recover and he is gone after this year. Either they make a big deal to get a first rate 1B, or they play Shaw, or they convert one of the other players to 1B.
The current OF, with De Aza's amazing performance, has improved substantially, but what is it going to be next year? If a big acquisition is to be made that may be something for the off-season. If the Sox do not move up very soon, and if they don't trade JBJ, then I think he should be brought back and given extensive playing time.
If they could be acquired, I would have the Sox trade some assets for two top starters, two top RPs, and a top 1B. Those deals would be expensive, but the team would be greatly improved not only for this year but for the next several years. However, I would not trade elite prospect assets for anyuthing less than elite players with several years of control ahead.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 12, 2015 16:10:41 GMT -5
Clearly trying to get more than two innings out of Ogando is an open admission that the bullpen sucks. I hope that message now is clear to the front office.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 12, 2015 14:42:47 GMT -5
Miley should not have started the 6th. He was mediocre all game and just was lucky he didn't give up more runs. There was no reason not to use the bullpen early.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 12, 2015 10:18:16 GMT -5
I don't know if it was mentioned earlier, but I heard during the TV cast last night that this is first All Star game ever when neither the Yankees or the Red Sox had a starting player.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 11, 2015 17:15:01 GMT -5
It is impossible for me to envision the Sox making a serious run at the post-season without Buchholz - or another pitcher (or two) or equal or better skill. I have to think that Johnson will get in one of these two games, if nothing more, than just for a look.
If management is serious about this season, there have to be some significant moves in their plans, and something might well happen during, or shortly after, the break. The sooner Johnson faces major league hitters the sooner they will have an idea what can be done with him - either added to the rotation, or included in a deal, or sent back to Pawtucket.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 11, 2015 16:31:22 GMT -5
Doug Fister had a similar injury this year and was on the DL for 35 days. His injury apparently was inflammation rather than a tear. The term "strain" seems to be used rather generally in referring to discomfort in the tendon, which can be soreness/inflammation from overuse, or it can be a tear, which is less common. Standard treatment is several weeks of rest and physical therapy. Sometimes surgery is required. It is not as complicated as TJ surgery and the recovery time is about half as long, five to six months.
In any case, it seems fairly likely that Buchholz could be out for a month or more.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 11, 2015 16:14:17 GMT -5
It will be fascinating to see how the fifth starting spot is filled. Three of the four now are LHPs. Owens is pitching well enough to be worth a tryout, but would they really go with four LHPs? Wright hasn't been pitching all that well recently but he would seem to have the edge.
Of course, because of the All-Star break, this won't have to be decided for another week. Something else could happen in that time.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 9, 2015 18:23:06 GMT -5
For some reason Shaw made me think of Brandon Moss. So I looked them up for comparison. Their minor league records are fairly similar. Moss was good defending RF early on but was converted to 1B by Oakland because Reddick took over RF. Shaw strikes me as the kind of player that Beane likes.
At this point Shaw has about half as many minor league at-bats as did Moss. Their minor league slash lines:
Moss .283/.355/.474/.829 238 2Bs, 30 3bs, 134 HRs, KBB rate: 2.29 Shaw .261/.360/.447/.807 117 2bs, 11 3bs, 69 HRs, KBB rate 1.55
Moss's edge in slugging appears due mostly to his triples, and somewhat higher BA. Moss also hit better in his early minor league years, with a BA of .287 after five minor league seasons. He did considerably worse later when he was bouncing back and forth between the majors and AAA. And then he suddenly started to hit well in the majors. He has hit 100 HRs in the past four seasons.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 9, 2015 13:32:14 GMT -5
Marco Hernandez, at .325, now is leading the Eastern League in hitting, per tweet by Antonellis.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 9, 2015 13:27:28 GMT -5
It is hard for a young player to assess his own potential and I have no idea what advice he is getting. I also don't know what potential he has. So this is all speculation.
If he thinks he has a realistic chance to make the majors, he should sign now for as much as the Sox will pay him. If he makes the majors, he will more than make up whatever he loses by not waiting for possibly a better bonus next year - unless, of course, he was among the top ten in the first round - and that seems quite unlikely.
If the difference is "only" $300-400K, it would be financially foolish not to sign now. One year at the major league minimum will make that up. A year lost in his time to the majors might cost a whole lot more later in his career.
On the other hand, if his signing bonus is more likely to be about all the money he makes from baseball, then waiting makes sense.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 9, 2015 13:13:37 GMT -5
That Sickels piece on Rowdy Tellez is interesting. Several posters on this site were strong supporters of the Sox drafting Tellez. KLaw did not like him and wrote that he wouldn't hit. He seems to be proving his supporters right and the skeptics wrong. But he still has a long way to go.
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