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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 21, 2015 13:34:12 GMT -5
I think any of the present starters should be considered for trading, if the right deal is there. For example, one could be used along with another player or two in a deal for a better starter.
Craig isn't hitting much at Pawtucket. I don't see the utility of bringing him back until he does, if he does. I think he is best included in a deal where each side is taking a bad contract from the other, maybe a multiplayer deal, several players on each side, with one on each side having a bad contract. Those deals happen. Or he and a few mil$ are traded for a low minor league prospect.
The time to trade Buchholz is in the off season, if he makes it back this year and looks OK. If that happens, then he definitely should be traded during the winter. Of course, I have argued for him being traded every winter for several years now.
I don't think Hanley can play 1B, or at least won't play it any better than he has LF. That will screw up the entire infield.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 21, 2015 11:08:09 GMT -5
My ideas about what to do have been "evolving." Now that it seems clear that this team will not contend, the time has come to make some major changes. While changes in management personnel may have to occur, right now I am focused on player changes.
It is time to begin clearing the deadwood, the players who will not be with the team next year, or shouldn't be, as well as players at Pawtucket who have no viable future with the Sox. =
So, this means beginning now, as opportunities arise, clearing the following by whatever means are most opportunistic: Napoli, Victorino, Nava, Masterson, Breslow, Wright, Cecchini, Brentz, Coyle, Ross, Ogando, Belisario, Quintero, Craig, Pequero, Berry, one more of the catchers and a couple more of the infielders from Pawtucket not named Hernandez.
Every other player on the current 25-man major league roster is made available in the right trade except for Betts, Bogaerts, Pedroia, Swihart, Rodriguez, Ortiz, and Tazawa.
Promote, as appropriate several of the promising players at Portland to replace some of those cut from Pawtucket. Similarly promote from Salem to Portland, from Greenville to Salem, etc., giving as many promising prospects as possible a taste of a higher level for the last month of the minor league season.
Promote Shaw, JBJ, Owens and Light from Pawtucket. Shaw takes over 1B, JBJ RF, Owens in the rotation, Light to get some experience, but not heavily relied on. Platoon Ramirez and Ortiz at DH. Recall Castillo and have him play in LF when Ramirez is the DH. Sign De Aza to a new contract to be the LH OF off the bench.
I am not sure that it is going to practical, or even possible, for the Sox to make a really good major trade right now, one that would benefit the team for the next several years, without having to give up more of their top prospects than they should. Clearly if an elite pitcher, or a slugging 1B, both with some controllable years ahead became available in a deal that did not cost Devers or Moncada or Espinoza, it should be seriously pursued.
But for the most part it might be good to hold off and get some playing time at higher levels for the best prospects. Then there will be a better idea in the off season what the team has, and what it will need to acquire.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 20, 2015 23:45:15 GMT -5
The Sox tied for the worst record in the AL tonight. It seems reasonable now to say that the little run they had before the break was a tease. They really are out of it now. Now they must start preparing for next season.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 20, 2015 23:25:30 GMT -5
There are five catchers with Lowell.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Jul 20, 2015 19:57:28 GMT -5
I didn't know anything about Urias when I wrote that. I have since done a little research. He is a superb prospect with the potential of being a top of the rotation guy.
He was activated on the 10th. He's only pitched 35 innings this year with a 3.00 ERA. Ron Shaw of fangraphs did a scouting report on him last September in which he said the kid was about ready for the majors and shouldn't be used much in the minors. I guess they followed that advice. He doesn't throw as hard as Espinoza and he doesn't have the same command and control, but he has good stuff.
I still wouldn't trade Devers for him. As pitching has gotten better, good hitters are increasing in value. Elite hitters, as Devers may well become, are enormously valuable and extremely hard to find, harder to find than pitchers like Urias.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 20, 2015 13:18:47 GMT -5
Until Moncado started to hit, Devers was regarded by many analysts as the position player in the Sox minor league system most likely to become a superstar, a batting champion. And both KLaw and soxprospects scouts now say his defense is good and he can stay at 3B - basically eliminating the one question that remained from last season.
No way I would trade him for a pitcher, any pitcher, but especially either an older veteran or an unproven youngster who hasn't had his TJ yet.
I would consider trading him in a deal for a superstar position player nearing or in his prime years - but not older.
I used to be in favor of a Hamels trade, but not anymore. If Cueto's arm hasn't fallen off by fall, I'd be in favor of signing him - but not trading for him now. That's just a waste.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 20, 2015 8:57:53 GMT -5
I don't know if it has been referenced here or elsewhere, but Dave Cameron at fangraphs.com has just completed an analysis of who he considers the top 50 players in the major leagues. He includes present and five-year future WAR calculations as well as contract status with each one. Betts is 11th. Bogaerts is 33rd. It's a good read. www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2015-trade-value-the-top-10/
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 20, 2015 8:43:12 GMT -5
Pittsburgh's shortstop got hurt yesterday and it looks like they are bringing up a strong prospect from the minors. They have one of the same needs as the Sox: a 1B. Alvarez has been a disaster at first, especially defensively. They also need more hitting. I don't think Holt fits their needs in the same ways it is hard to give him one position on the Sox.
Also, the Orioles didn't know what they had with Rodriguez. He had been injured and it appeared he was not making a full recovery. He didn't have a very good first half last year. If you look back on this site, you'll see some people here were not immediately excited by the trade. If the Orioles had known what they had, Rodriguez would be pitching for them now. Instead, they are considering renting Cueto.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 19, 2015 19:51:39 GMT -5
Rain somewhat likely in Anaheim until about 10 PM PDT.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 19, 2015 19:45:06 GMT -5
I'm a little leery of Cueto because of that arm issue. Chapman would be great to get.
I think the Sox are going to have four pretty good LH starters. At least one almost has to be traded, but until they all have pitched for the Sox it is impossible to choose one to trade.
Also, re Sandoval, he is not trending down. The last I looked, which during the break, he was hitting just about the same as he did last year. He had a terrible first half last year and did much better in the second half. So the slight decline last year from previous years is deceptive. He has been one of the most consistent hitters on the Sox. They would have had a no hitter pitched against them last night if it had not been for him.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Jul 19, 2015 19:37:42 GMT -5
You forgot the italics.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Jul 19, 2015 19:31:54 GMT -5
Since this thread is all over the place, given that there is no game to discuss, I'll add my couple of cents. I don't understand the general desire to trade Uehara. He is a very good closer and the Sox don't have another one. There are a couple of teams that could use a good closer right now and he would be a good candidate. However, whatever the Sox got for him would not be as valuable as he will be to the Sox next year, assuming the team is much better next year.
The Sox will get a middling to upper middling prospect at best. The Sox have a whole bunch of those now. The Sox need a slugging rightfielder and a slugging first baseman, along with a couple of elite pitchers and a good 7th or 8th inning RP. Uehara won't bring any of those.
Pedroia is the best damn player on the team. The idea of trading him is just crazy. No sense discussing it.
Napoli is done. Play Shaw.
Bring up JBJ and put him in RF.
Is there a contender that needs a 2B? I don't know of one, but if there is, trade Holt. He would be a terrific 2B fulltiime. Not as good as Pedroia, but not tremendously far behind. That kind of deal, sweetened a bit, might bring somebody worth having.
I'd be willing to give quite a bit to get Sale and that Cuban 1B from the White Sox.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Jul 19, 2015 14:04:01 GMT -5
Hamels out after three innings I think the Phillies might have waited too long to trade him.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Jul 19, 2015 14:00:00 GMT -5
I agree with jmei on Sandoval. He and I have both been arguing for a while that Sandoval is not a bad defender at 3B although he sometimes seems to be trying to prove us wrong. He is better than anyone else the Sox have, or are likely to be able to get in trade. Devers and Moncada seem to be the most likely in-house candidates to replace Sandoval, but that's a couple years from now unless one pulls a Mookie Betts.
Holt is OK at first, certainly better than Napoli has been, but he can't be there permanently unless some of the other players start showing more power. It has to come from somewhere. I think Holt would have the greatest value to a team in need of a real solid 2B. Who has that need? I don't know. Otherwise, he probably would not return value equal to what he has to the Sox now.
I would rather see Shaw given an extensive tryout at first. He has shown the ability to learn and improve as he has come up through the system and he should be given the chance. After him the best in-house candidate right now seems to be the other Travis, but he probably is at least a year away.
I'd like to see Owens get a start for the Sox before the deadline. I can't see them going with four LH starters but if both Johnson and Owens show they belong in the majors, the Sox will have the chips to pull of a big trade or two without completely depleting the minors.
However, as quiet as the rumor mill has been - unusually quiet - I suspect we're going to be surprised by whatever the Sox do. Most of what I read is one writer quoting another. With such a balance of competition this season for the post-season, there may not be a lot of trades - or there will be a blockbuster that upsets the balance and then some others will occur.
It would be silly for the Sox to trade for Cueto unless they could get him extended as part of the deal, something that almost never happens.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 18, 2015 19:41:10 GMT -5
Noe Ramirez recalled and Shaw optioned.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Jul 18, 2015 13:09:35 GMT -5
I was listening to the game last night and when Trout came to bat I said to myself, why not walk him? It was weird. The Sox announcers both seemed to anticipate what was going to happen. I had the same feeling in the top of the ninth when they said that Trout was going to be third batter in the bottom of the inning,
Of course, if they had walked him, Pujols would have come to bat and a double would have scored Trout - and that's probably what would have happened and Farrell would have been roundly chastised.
There was only one truly right thing to do - get Trout out.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Jul 18, 2015 11:48:13 GMT -5
I think it is enormously difficult to project the value of a prospect beyond the fairly obvious. The players who succeed more often than not do so because of their own drive and their ability to learn. Someone wrote that Mookie Betts was really good at learning baseball. I think most exceptional players - like most people who are exceptional at anything - have internal drive and focus. They learn quickly and solve problems.
Right now the player I think is really interesting is Jackie Bradley. He has come quite a way from where he was a year ago. He had a huge problem with his swing and he seems to corrected a lot of the problem. I think he still has a chance of being a major league regular, maybe even an exceptional one. If I were the GM of another team talking trades with the Sox, he would be high on my list of targets.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 17, 2015 18:15:04 GMT -5
I didn't say that he wouldn't get to that level, just that he's not there now. And I wasn't saying he should be. He's been rushed and, all things considered, he's done pretty well.
I have previously written that I don't like the idea of sending him back to Pawtucket. I think he can learn a lot more in the majors - especially with Hanigan working with him - and if the Sox are not in contention, then he should be doing at least half the catching. He can work on his pitching framing just as easily in the majors as in the minors and in the majors he gets to work with major league pitchers - and umpires.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Jul 17, 2015 16:43:36 GMT -5
The Sox roster here shows an open position. Any news on who is going to fill it?
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Jul 17, 2015 16:39:50 GMT -5
With catcher and shortstop if it is a choice between defense and hitting, I always go with defense unless, of course, the hitter is exceptional. However, if he isn't good defensively then he should be moved to another position.
Swihart was hitting pretty well when he got hurt. He was showing every sign of becoming a good offensive contributor. Whether he can be more than that is yet to be determined. However, it was obvious to me, only listening to games on the radio, that Swihart was not a "leader" catcher. He seldom went to the mound when pitchers were struggling. I also should note that the pitching coach and manager also seldom go to the mound when pitchers are struggling. Most of the time, when they do, the damage is done. He's very young to be catching in the major leagues and I am sure it is very hard to try to control these older, more experienced, pitchers.
Hanigan is much more aggressive with the pitchers. He takes charge and the results show it. I watched the last game Rodriguez pitched and Hanigan's actions with him were very visible. At one point he called time to change the sign and he signaled to Rodriguez to trust him. It worked.
The Sox will have to make some tough decisions eventually, but until Vazquez demonstrates he is fully recovered, they need to keep both Hanigan and Swihart.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 16, 2015 18:29:19 GMT -5
I guess I am in the minority but I don't agree with this suspension. I think MLB has over-reacted to the use of various drugs. This one isn't particularly harmful and not regulated. At the maximum the kid should have gotten a warning.
This whole country went mad about drug use and we have hundreds of thousands of people in prisons because of non-violent drug use or related offenses. I heard a piece on NPR today with a woman who got a 30-year sentence for selling meth. Obama recently commuted it. According to the Prez we are spending $80 billion a year incarcerating people, many, maybe the majority of whom, committed no violent offenses, and that doesn't count the billions spent on the war on drugs - our longest and most unsuccessful war. I don't like drugs. I don't use them. But I think people have a right to use them so long as they don't harm anyone else. And in this case, I think MLB should have to demonstrate that his use of this drug somehow artificially improved his performance. I don't think they can do that.
Sorry for the preaching, but this is just bad policy.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Jul 16, 2015 11:53:58 GMT -5
Raudez has 43 Ks and 2 (yes, only 2) BBs in 39 innings.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Jul 15, 2015 16:18:57 GMT -5
So looking ahead, if he is another Mookie, where is he going to play?
Can he play 3B? Panda then could go to first. Or, like Mookie, should he go to the OF?
Lots of time yet to consider these questions, but they are fun to think about.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 15, 2015 9:58:22 GMT -5
I probably should have written it, but I meant my 7-13 piece to include an assumption that deals should not be made if the prices become too high. However, the Sox should be opportunistic and not be afraid to pay a high price if high value can be gained in return.
Not all deadline deals are overpays and sometimes players become available who might not be available later.
I would not trade for any player with little time left on his contract - certainly no one who will become a free agent this fall.
I was trying to describe a strategy that was neither buy or sell but some of both - and some maybe now and some maybe in the off season - designed to build a team that can contend for several years.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 14, 2015 15:27:31 GMT -5
It is hard to fathom how bad Craig is after being so good. While that kind of drop-off is not unprecedented it certainly is rare for players of his age. I still don't fault the Sox for taking a chance on him. He's a lucky guy that he has that contract.
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