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Post by taftreign on Dec 8, 2013 23:51:21 GMT -5
There may very well be a big trade coming but I don't see it being an established All-Star. To me Ben is more likely to produce a trade for a player who they believe is about to break into the All-Star level of play within the next few seasons. Why pay premium dollars for the availability of star players that come with question marks of there own like Stanton, Kemp, Tulo and Cargo all of whom have an injury history. The question is who are the ready to break out players already in the major leagues or prospects about to enter the league? These are the players that will still cost decent prospects but not a package of 2 top 50s and 2 more top 150s. If I'm the GM this is how I'm proceeding at this point particular since I wouldn't feel as though I really needed to make such a move out of necessity.
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Post by taftreign on Dec 8, 2013 23:36:40 GMT -5
If I'm not mistaken the team receives a pick as long as Drew signs before the June draft. I see zero scenarios in which Drew is still sitting on the market come June. He'll sign a deal somewhere for a discount long before it comes to that.
Napoli does leave a little to be desired with his high K rates but he offers value as the best combination of power and defense at 1B on the market. He is familiar with what it takes to play in Boston. Perhaps the most important support for signing Napoli is the players themselves went to bat for him. Not that you want your players running the team in any way but they have confidence in him and the front office agreed enough to make it happen.
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Post by taftreign on Dec 6, 2013 23:56:44 GMT -5
Get the pick let Drew walk. Its not gonna be fun watching him hit against lefties. Don't you think he would sit more against lefties this year with Bogaerts now up full time? It would be the only opportunity to play WMB if he remains.
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Post by taftreign on Dec 6, 2013 23:54:12 GMT -5
Bringing in Kemp would make Nava the bench swing man between corner OF and 1B and Carp would have no clear window to playing time becoming expendable.
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Post by taftreign on Dec 6, 2013 22:14:55 GMT -5
Well it's only a log jam for one year and a trade is sure to follow as there is little salary left to be paid on Wells, Soriano, Suzuki and Gardner all of who are in their last season. Still an old expensive roster with no alternate way to replace losses besides revisiting an increasingly more expensive free agent market.
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Post by taftreign on Dec 6, 2013 16:33:10 GMT -5
Doesn't Cano getting those years 8-9-10 mean a lot though? He's likely to be AROD-like where they are paying huge dollars to someone who can barely play replacement level baseball, if at all. I'm not talking about the Arod of the last couple years (when on the field) I'm talking about the ARod we're likely to see over the next 3-4 years. However, if you can't make your team good enough during Elsbury's good years then that contract was a waste too... I think this is a case of the Mariners screwing themselves and the Yankees, which is kind of nice. I don't know. I'd say based on the alternatives Seattle chose the right player to go 9 or 10 years with from what was available on the free agent market. He's the one player I'd look to give a chance to provide positive value in the back end of the deal. I guess I'm buying his hitting ability to sustain him. The power is likely to decline but he can extend his career as a .280 to .285 hitter, 15 to 17 HR player who is average in the field at 2nd IMO. Just as Ortiz has remained productive despite his age. I think Seattle gets enough value in the first 7 years to make the last 3 seasons worth the risk. This slight "overpay" also legitimizes the team to other free agents they are trying to land and sends a signal to the fan base. Ticket sales should rise after this off season for Seattle which should have a part B and part C coming. Despite a long list of recent bad decisions for Nintendo it looks like they might have made a pretty solid one here.
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Post by taftreign on Dec 6, 2013 12:17:59 GMT -5
This market is moving fast. A Napoli deal could be done by before tonight. He appears to be next in line.
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Post by taftreign on Dec 6, 2013 12:14:06 GMT -5
The only saving grace for the Yankees is they have to have one of the least expensive bull pens in baseball. That is of course theoretically a necessity and a risky proposition.
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Post by taftreign on Dec 6, 2013 12:09:42 GMT -5
3 years may not be the preference but if they want him over Hart it's not a deal breaker IMO. Ben has handled his business we'll and there are zero bad deals on the roster right now. An extra year of Napoli is tolerable even if it's not ideal due to the fact he can handle the defensive side well and there is no doubt a hole at the position for the club outside of a Carp/Nava platoon.
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Post by taftreign on Dec 6, 2013 11:51:47 GMT -5
Choo would be a god awful sign for the Sox. Choo is one of the best players in the league at getting on base, averages around 20 HRs and 20 steals per year, has a cannon for an arm, and could leadoff and play LF. There are no good OFs in free agency next year when the team will have to replace some offense when/if Papi leaves. If he can be had for around 15-17 per year then he is a great player who adds power and fits the Red Sox offensive strategy perfectly as a player who sees pitches and gets on base I don't really see this as a probabability. I previously thought he could get close to 20 AAV. Given the events and the likelihood MFY, Texas, prob Seattle, Boston on the periphery and a few others lingering I believe the best bat left on the market will get a significant deal.
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Post by taftreign on Dec 6, 2013 11:42:52 GMT -5
And this is why the Sox extended Pedroia earlier this year and at a discount to boot. There is no doubt why Pedroia is endeared to all Boston fans. #laser show
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Post by taftreign on Dec 6, 2013 11:36:14 GMT -5
What Rosenthal should have said was, " It would really be 'dumb' for the Yankees to essentially swap Ellsbury for Cano this off season." This of course is what they did. Now they have played themselves into overpaying the competition for Choo.
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Post by taftreign on Dec 5, 2013 13:31:13 GMT -5
I expect him to put up similar numbers to what he produced in the second half of this season and his rookie year.. for another team. I may be in the minority, but I think the Red Sox are going to re-sign Stephen Drew and move Bogaerts to third permanently. I know Cherington and co. have been saying they see Bogaerts as the future shortstop of this team, but I think -- for some reason -- they're going to move Middlebrooks, thus creating the need for Drew. But, this doesn't mean I want him gone. I've always loved Middlebrooks. This would negate the entire contemporary F.O. rationale for the Iglesias / Peavy trade, which was that Iglesias was superfluous because they were absolutely committed to X at SS, which allowed them to use Iglesias to buy pennant insurance in case there was a starting rotation injury in addition to Buchholz not coming back. They didn't trade for Peavy as a significant upgrade to what they had; they traded for him because the one way they could see missing the post-season was if they ended up "with Steven Wright in the rotation" (said Tom Tippett). If they really gave away Jose Iglesias to increase their post-season odds from, what, 98% to 100%, and then changed their mind about Bogaerts and signed Drew for big bucks instead of taking the draft pick for him, and in doing so blocked Cecchini from playing 3B for us -- well, that would be idiotic. Let's not forget as recently as a year ago the scouting projected the most likely scenario being Xander would move to 3b or even RF as he physically matured reducing his ability to field the Ss position. Bogaerts has since focused a great deal on improving his defense at short and appears as though he could hold it down at least for a few seasons but I bet within a few years his best position is at 3rd if not now. Signing Drew for 3 years of improved positional defense isn't a bad move and then handing the position off to Marrero who also likely offers better defense then Bogaerts. I do like WMB but he does offer a valuable piece in a trade that can fill a weakness elsewhere unless he transitions to another position. Then you have Cecchini. He is either Bogaerts insurance at 3b or a LF which is a position with very little long term resources. Ultimately the young players offer decent yet unproven options the next few seasons for the left side of the diamond and signing Drew doesn't ultimately hinder it but just makes someone expendable.
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Post by taftreign on Dec 5, 2013 13:12:19 GMT -5
$5mm for a set up guy isn't bad. (Mike Adams signed 2/12; Affeldt 3/21; League 4/27.5[!]; Burnett 2/8; Broxton 3/21 - though, I suppose he may have irrationally been signed as a closer who never pitches, etc.) And jmei will be happy, which is nice. They signed a closer to non-closer $. That's nice. Agree. Not only does he offer security as a pitcher who can supplement the closer position but he just doesn't walk hitters very often. If your offense is going to be a little less potent then you are more likely playing in close 1 or 2 run games and you will need a solid bullpen to lean on. i feel 1000 x better about this move then when they signed Jenks to a 2 year and 12 to set up / back up Papelbon.
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Post by taftreign on Dec 5, 2013 9:39:48 GMT -5
If I'm Seattle I have to be in on Tanaka. Already a connection with the Washington area and Japanese players and fans. Additionally if they can't get a bat, even being willing to give Ellsbury a nine year deal and failing, then they should sign pitchers and trade for a bat using T. Walker as bait.
In general if it's not a pure money decision for the player then one would hypothesize the most likely landing spots in order may be Seattle, MFY, Boston based on past experiences.
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Post by taftreign on Dec 4, 2013 23:31:44 GMT -5
I expect him to put up similar numbers to what he produced in the second half of this season and his rookie year.. for another team. I may be in the minority, but I think the Red Sox are going to re-sign Stephen Drew and move Bogaerts to third permanently. I know Cherington and co. have been saying they see Bogaerts as the future shortstop of this team, but I think -- for some reason -- they're going to move Middlebrooks, thus creating the need for Drew. But, this doesn't mean I want him gone. I've always loved Middlebrooks. This. Almost exactly this. Either LAD or MIA..... So you think it would be WMB for a Dodger OF?
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Post by taftreign on Dec 4, 2013 23:27:56 GMT -5
I read the MLB Trade Rumors post. It did exist at one point. I also tried to relocate it unsuccessfully. It stated the option voided if traded in the post. However when I went to the attached source link to post it at that time the source actually stated the opposite so I chose not to post it due to a lack of clarification.
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Post by taftreign on Dec 4, 2013 11:33:04 GMT -5
Correct. I think we have to consider the fact that Ben is ok not winning the World Series next season. Do you really think he expected to take the trophy home this past season. That was lightning in a bottle. Ben has a plan and he's not deviating due to a title. It's not unexpected to see the media wondering on all the big free agents with Ellsbury, Napoli, Salty, and Drew hitting the market. Even now various analysts are concerned with the "hole" in CF. Will they sign Choo and move Victorino to CF? What about Granderson? They don't seem to even know who JB Jr is or understand he is a viable option. I believe Ben's plan all along was to have JB Jr and Bogaerts starting this season and take what lumps may result. Just as he is clearing the way for Swihart/Vazquez. His goal is building the next great Red Sox dynasty. He will plug holes (ie. Victorino, Drew, Napoli, Gomes) when needed but not take excessive deals. We'll see an additional signing or two but not past three seasons. He may add a longer deal via a trade but only at a discount (ie Kemp). Meanwhile Ben will collect draft picks, spend internationally and develop talent. While the system is graduating two high end talents this year the system has the potential to be better or at least deeper by next off season with a solid draft and international period. Maybe the MFY resign Cano. Maybe they somehow get Tanaka. Perhaps they are better then Boston for a year or two. Still I'll take my chances with a team that is much younger, continues to be a viable playoff contender, isn't hindered long term by luxury tax thresholds and has the resources in the farm system to replace free agent vacancies, plug injury related losses and make significant trades to add impact players all the while having substantial financial backing when needed. The next part of the plan will be to sign the young talent long term. Obviously Bogaerts and Bradley have a few seasons until that discussion but I can see the team buying out a few arb years to get a team friendly deal over a longer period of time. This team may only win 86 games next season but my expectations are for this to be a bridge year of sorts. It seems to be between stages as the young players gain valuable experience. My only real concern between now and the start of the 2015 season is how will the team replace the offense of Ortiz unless he signs a one year extension and continues to produce without much drop in performance however unlikely. My plan is to enjoy watching Bogaerts and Bradley develop at the MLB level as I have waited anxiously for them to arrive. I will closely follow WMB as I expect to see a bounce back season offensively. I will continue to enjoy the growth of the many prospects preparing to contribute very soon (ie. Cecchini, Vazquez, Webster, Barnes, Ranaudo, De La Rosa), soon (ie. Owens, Betts, Marrero, Johnson) and down the road (Ball, Margot, Stankiewicz, Devers, etc). I am no doubt biased but there is no team top to bottom more exciting to follow. There is a big difference between not expecting to win a World Series and not expecting to contend. The plan you outline turns the Sox into a below .500 bunch. If they wanted that then they never would have signed Gomes Victorino and Napoli last year. Like it or not the Sox will contend next year it's just a question of how they'll replace Ellsbury/Napoli/Drew and the 2013 version of Ortiz in this lineup. You cannot count on Papi having the season he had again. No I'm saying next years team may only win 86 games which is above .500 and still in the wild card hunt as it is currently constituted. I don't see signing Choo to a 6 year deal as the best choice. I'm not anti free agency as it's an integral part of building a team balancing with weaknesses in the farm system. Considering replacing Drew w Bogaerts, Ellsbury w Bradley and Salty w Pierzynski the team isn't a below .500 team all of a sudden because it loses Napoli. Edit: I say 86 wins to account for a few struggles Bogaerts and Bradley could face and the consideration that other than Buch the team had a fairly injury free year. Also is Uehara as dominate in close games as last season. Can't count on that. Still Buchholz for a full year, a bounce back from WMB and a small improvement offensively from Pedroia after finally resolving the thumb injury can push the team into 89 / 90 win territory with all other things remaining consistent.
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Post by taftreign on Dec 4, 2013 11:20:33 GMT -5
Cool his Mom can pack his lunch and drop him off.
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Post by taftreign on Dec 4, 2013 11:09:10 GMT -5
Correct. I think we have to consider the fact that Ben is ok not winning the World Series next season. Do you really think he expected to take the trophy home this past season. That was lightning in a bottle. Ben has a plan and he's not deviating due to a title. It's not unexpected to see the media wondering on all the big free agents with Ellsbury, Napoli, Salty, and Drew hitting the market. Even now various analysts are concerned with the "hole" in CF. Will they sign Choo and move Victorino to CF? What about Granderson? They don't seem to even know who JB Jr is or understand he is a viable option.
I believe Ben's plan all along was to have JB Jr and Bogaerts starting this season and take what lumps may result. Just as he is clearing the way for Swihart/Vazquez. His goal is building the next great Red Sox dynasty. He will plug holes (ie. Victorino, Drew, Napoli, Gomes) when needed but not take excessive deals. We'll see an additional signing or two but not past three seasons. He may add a longer deal via a trade but only at a discount (ie Kemp).
Meanwhile Ben will collect draft picks, spend internationally and develop talent. While the system is graduating two high end talents this year the system has the potential to be better or at least deeper by next off season with a solid draft and international period.
Maybe the MFY resign Cano. Maybe they somehow get Tanaka. Perhaps they are better then Boston for a year or two. Still I'll take my chances with a team that is much younger, continues to be a viable playoff contender, isn't hindered long term by luxury tax thresholds and has the resources in the farm system to replace free agent vacancies, plug injury related losses and make significant trades to add impact players all the while having substantial financial backing when needed.
The next part of the plan will be to sign the young talent long term. Obviously Bogaerts and Bradley have a few seasons until that discussion but I can see the team buying out a few arb years to get a team friendly deal over a longer period of time.
This team may only win 86 games next season but my expectations are for this to be a bridge year of sorts. It seems to be between stages as the young players gain valuable experience. My only real concern between now and the start of the 2015 season is how will the team replace the offense of Ortiz unless he signs a one year extension and continues to produce without much drop in performance however unlikely.
My plan is to enjoy watching Bogaerts and Bradley develop at the MLB level as I have waited anxiously for them to arrive. I will closely follow WMB as I expect to see a bounce back season offensively. I will continue to enjoy the growth of the many prospects preparing to contribute very soon (ie. Cecchini, Vazquez, Webster, Barnes, Ranaudo, De La Rosa), soon (ie. Owens, Betts, Marrero, Johnson) and down the road (Ball, Margot, Stankiewicz, Devers, etc). I am no doubt biased but there is no team top to bottom more exciting to follow.
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Post by taftreign on Dec 4, 2013 2:37:13 GMT -5
I think we have to forget Tanaka. The new system locks Boston out. And effectively I believe it does MFY and Baltimore as we'll. I can see Toronto and the Angels in for sure and I still believe the Cubs should be. Still if you are Houston free of a great deal of payroll you have to do this. Tanaka, Appel and Rondon are a mighty fine 1/2/3 no matter what order. All for under 20 mil for the first few seasons. Then add a solid free agent pitcher or trade for one and you potentially rival the best rotations in MLB.
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Post by taftreign on Dec 4, 2013 2:28:36 GMT -5
Ellsbury. He provides stability to a Yankee team that has been struggling. He offers greater defensive value in comparison to Damon at the point of joining the team. He offers greater speed and could steal 10 bases on Boston this year alone. If he's healthy for the duration he will outperform his WAR he generated for the Sox easily. And the greatest reason personally for me, he was a home grown talent not an import.
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Post by taftreign on Dec 4, 2013 2:11:44 GMT -5
I think Choo comes in around 5 years and $105 mil, with a 6th year option. He may of course get more than that but I'd play up to $110 mil. What I would prefer even more is Tanaka or a 1-2 year deal for Kuroda and to me they would represent the most value overall. Even better than Choo, but I recognize that is not likely given the strength of our current rotation. In an ideal world I would try to sign both Tanaka and Choo and trade Dempster as a straight salary dump to facilitate that but we have already signed Pierzynsky so to me it is Tanaka/Kuroda at this point OR Choo. To me that's the best plan for our top FA sign. I believe the expectation is that Choo will get more than Ellsbury. At least from Boras' perspective. Word was Boras was trying to push through a deal for Ellsbury because he was holding up Choo's market. With twice as many in on Choo it reasons his deal will equal or exceed the Ellsbury deal. Around 7 and $160.
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Post by taftreign on Dec 3, 2013 21:32:33 GMT -5
Using amfox1's projection let's look at the age of the offense:
Ellsbury 30 Gardner 30 (FA) Cano 31 Soriano 38 (FA) McCann 30 Teixeira 34 Jeter 40 (FA) Suzuki 40 (FA) FA
Cervelli 28 Ryan 32 Nunez 27 Wells 35 (FA)
Thats an old team. Even with 5 free agents leaving there appear to be no prospects ready to help so that leads them back to free agency. Even though they technically get younger by removing a 35, 38, and two 40 year olds the replacements are likely to be 30+ also. The pitching isn't in much better shape talent wise although they do have a fair amount of 25 to 27 year old arms including Nova, Pineda and most of the pen. Makes Tanaka look like a must sign depending on the new NPB system.
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Post by taftreign on Dec 3, 2013 21:03:19 GMT -5
Mark Feinsand @feinsandnydn
Yankees deal with Ellsbury is seven years and $153 million. That's $12 million more than Crawford's contract.
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