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Post by taftreign on Dec 3, 2013 13:41:11 GMT -5
I'm really curious to see what the trade cost is. Hanigan strikes me as one of those guys who might be so underrated that he becomes overrated, as least amongst the SABR set. The Rays already have two defensive catchers. I don't get this. I think we could see one of the catchers move out in a deal with Price. Doesn't seem to be an efficient use of resources/roster spots for TB.
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Post by taftreign on Dec 3, 2013 12:02:08 GMT -5
Well I guess we can clearly define the earlier report.
Nov 30, 2013 13:12:51 GMT -5 soxfanatic said:
According to a major league source, the Red Sox haven’t set a deadline for any of their unsigned free agents to accept the club’s offers, but are “certainly working on other options, also.”
Another source has confirmed that the Red Sox have told at least one of the free agents whom they have offered a contract to that the team is nearing a point where they hope to decide between alternatives.
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Post by taftreign on Dec 3, 2013 11:46:56 GMT -5
To that point there could be a "Take it by date X or we're moving on" offer on the table from a team he favors, as well - contenders mentioned previously include Bos, Det, Tex, SF, NYY, Sea, Cubs. Of these, the teams that have publicly admitted they spoken to Boras about him include Bos and NYY. Which is meaningless, I know. According to John Heyman, four teams in on Ellsbury are SF, SEA, MFY and BOS. HOU, DET and TEX are reportedly in on Choo but not Ellsbury. No word on CHC. More or less Johnny Damon all over again. Hated it then would hate it now.
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Post by taftreign on Dec 3, 2013 0:24:59 GMT -5
Good move by the Orioles to free up money for an OF/DH bat (Beltran?). Surprising move by Oakland to add that kind of salary for a closer who has had his issues. Wonder if Oakland will flip him later this season?
Edit: Exactly Fenwaythehardway. Same thought. Didn't give up much and I believe could get more value back from another higher payroll team. I actually think it may not be until June or July but wouldn't rule it out to a team like the Dodgers.
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Post by taftreign on Dec 2, 2013 22:54:37 GMT -5
grandsalami
“@dylanohernandez: Sponichi: MLB proposing posting-fee limit for Japanese players. If multiple teams submit max bid, player goes to team with worst record.”
Welcome to the Cubs Tanaka!
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Post by taftreign on Dec 1, 2013 10:28:56 GMT -5
I'm not sure they tell Salty that straight away before trying to sign Ruiz. If your preferred order of catcher from best option to least is Ruiz, McCann, Salty, Hanigan then you try to sign the other guys first without regard to Salty. When Salty's up you go to him and say this is our deal or were moving onto the next guy. Ruiz and McCann clearly chose a different course than what Boston offered. Now it's Salty's turn to choose. Times running out and the team is applying time leverage to get the deal they want or they start working out a deal for Hanigan.
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Post by taftreign on Dec 1, 2013 10:05:16 GMT -5
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Post by taftreign on Nov 30, 2013 16:56:52 GMT -5
My first reaction is they were referring to Salty. The catcher market is much further along and if they want Hannigan or Navarro I'd think they will have to decide soon. You may be right but I don't believe they should feel the pressure on OF unless their only other real target is Beltran in which his market seems as it will be decided within the next week.
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Post by taftreign on Nov 29, 2013 23:21:11 GMT -5
But if the probability of this occurring is less 5% is it really risk. And either Drew or Salty at 1 yr and 14 mil would be a fairly easy contract to trade in this market.
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Post by taftreign on Nov 29, 2013 23:03:12 GMT -5
Middlebrooks will never equal Cecchini's hit tool or on-base production but I think Will gets unfairly criticized. He clearly had a down year in 2013. However you have to remember he was coming off a broken wrist to end 2012 and missed a great deal of the offseason to work on advancing his hitting and it impacted his start. Look at his 1st half vs 2nd half splits:
Season Split G AB PA H 1B 2B 3B HR R RBI BB IBB SO SB CS AVG 2013 1st Half 52 203 216 39 17 13 0 9 19 25 9 0 60 0 1 .192 2013 2nd Half 40 145 158 40 27 5 0 8 22 24 11 3 38 3 0 .276
Surprisingly he did not suffer in the HR department to start the season considering the wrist but he may have changed his swing to tap into the power resulting in downgrades elsewhere. After being lost at the plate a trip down to Pawtucket really resolved a few issues. If you project on the second half #'s to say 140 games his final line projects to: .276, 18 2B, 28 HR, 77 R, 84 RBI, 39 BB and 133 K in 553 PA.
Napoli's final line:.259, 38 2B, 23 HR, 79 R, 92 RBI, 73 BB and 187 K in 578 PA. Comparing the two thats a pretty equivalent stat line considering Napoli hit higher in the lineup which benefits his R and RBI production. I'd like to see WMB improve his BB rate a bit more but the power projects as a legit 5 hole hitter. To be honest with a solid off season of prep I feel confident in running WMB out there at 3B. Considering the value of cost vs production it's a solid piece for a contender. In fact if he is capable and can be taught to play 1B in the future he's a plug in for Napoli. Perhaps this is oversimplified and drawn on a small sample but I think Middlebrooks gets too much negativity and not enough faith in his continued development as a 25 year old.
I'm not ready to project Cecchini moving Middlebrooks off 3B. I'd consider it in the neighborhood of 50/50 that Cecchini moves to LF as it is Middlebrooks moves to 1B at this point.
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Post by taftreign on Nov 29, 2013 21:01:28 GMT -5
You may be right but I guess when I consider his salary against what we gave Dempster and in some manner how much Peavy makes I guess I thought it may go higher. Looking at the free agent market I could see it appearing a bit high with Tanaka, Santana, Jimenez, Kazmir, Colon, Arroyo, Feldman, Johnson, Hudson, Haren, Vargas, Hughes and others out there. Now the fact that it is the Twins paying the money is the bigger surprise.
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Post by taftreign on Nov 29, 2013 20:21:37 GMT -5
Yeah. Like I said I could see a three way split between Ross, Lavarnway and Butler. Of course that would mean carrying 3 catchers on the 25 man and bouncing Butler between the bigs and AAA for a few stints when the need arises to bring a player up to fill another position temporarily. But it would get the team through one bridge year and the team would have an opportunity to showcase both Lavarnway and Butler for a potential minor deal with another club. It's not inconceivable to move one at the end of July and bring Vazquez up not long after in late August or early September.
Also it looks like Lavarnway has 1 option and Butler has 2 according to the 40 man roster link.
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Post by taftreign on Nov 28, 2013 11:09:01 GMT -5
First Bryant is ineligible to be traded. No drafted prospects can be traded for a year. Second i have no doubt the Cubs would not trade Bryant who has legit 70 power and a solid bat. Soler to me will be moved in part to issues regarding his make up.
I like a fit more with the Pirates who have OF prospects Polanco, Meadows (my preferred draft pick last year), Bell and Ramirez to go with McCutchen and Marte. Now it's more likely they move Marte as he gets more expensive but I'd like to see Bell or Ramirez in the Boston system. Polanco has become untouchable.
This mostly to say Boston is rather devoid of power in the system with Bogaerts now in the majors. This is what has the team dipping into FA for corner OFs over and over again.
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Post by taftreign on Nov 27, 2013 23:02:26 GMT -5
You may be correct. I can visualize Ellsbury having a desire to return to the team he has had success with. The Red Sox would have no problem giving him fair value in the AAV column. The hindrance is the expected length and that would appear to be the only negotiating point. Additionally this likely pushes JBJr back to AAA for more seasoning or makes him available as a trade chip. It's not likely the team would run JB JR, Ellsbury and Victorino out as a starting OF devoid of power unless you argue the IF has more than enough with WMB, Bogaerts, Pedroia, Ortiz and a yet to be determined 1B (Napoli?) and C.
I do wonder where Seattle falls on Ellsbury. My first assumption was Seattle would be looking for more power bats because of the struggles in Safeco. But when I pulled up the team HR leaders I see 188 which ranks #2 in the AL and #2 in MLB. I then see a team with a .306 OBP ranking #12 in the AL and #26 in MLB. Plus a team with a .237 team BA ranking #15 in the AL and #28 in MLB. Add in a team with only 49 total SB ranking #14 in the AL and #28 in MLB. Since the walls came in it appears finding a player with power isn't so much of a concern anymore. And despite being #9 in MLB in BBs the team struggles getting players on base.
Ellsbury himself had more steals than the rest of the entire team. He is a consistent .290 to .300 hitter who won't bring a great deal of power but should add many 2Bs and 3Bs in Safeco. Also a solid argument for why Choo is a good fit for Seattle. To me this would make Cruz, Granderson, Napoli and Beltran poor fits. This is a team that should resign Morales and sign both Ellsbury and Choo on an overpay in $, years or both to get them to come. Both would set well at the top of the lineup, get on base and push Miller and Franklin to the bottom of the lineup where they're better suited. Last year Seattle operated with Ibanez in LF and a combo of Saunders and Ackley in CF. Instant upgrade both offensively and defensively.
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Post by taftreign on Nov 27, 2013 22:29:26 GMT -5
Well I projected the LA Dodgers in the free agent contest and moving Hanley over to 3B full time. The team has the money to make it happen and the defense just makes the pitching depth all the better. You could also consider the Mets who have the money but seem reluctant, mostly due to the pick attached.
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Post by taftreign on Nov 27, 2013 22:26:10 GMT -5
Anyone else surprised the Twins were able to land Nolasco for 4 and 49 mil with a 2018 option at 13 mil? Seems a little light.
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Post by taftreign on Nov 27, 2013 16:00:55 GMT -5
He was referring to games played. Although, playing two games without a catcher might be tough. Big Papi has to play somewhere during those inter league games so how about 2 at C.
Clearly a rough approximation there so add the other 2 any way you want between the 3.
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Post by taftreign on Nov 27, 2013 14:35:03 GMT -5
Clearly they thought Salty was the better option over Lavarnway on most nights. If Salty is not an option due to year and $ limits then it's a case of comparing Lavarnway to the alternatives which is probably closer than we'd like to think. Maybe the team carries three catchers in Ross, Lavarnway and Butler and divides up the playing time between the three with something like 60/60/40.
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Post by taftreign on Nov 27, 2013 13:09:29 GMT -5
There is also susposedly a new rule going into the agreement to prevent this from occurring if the agreement is ratified, because of something that happened with the Oakland Atheletics. I read an article about it on Baseball America but my brain is currently away for the holidays or I would post a link. It's not a rule that can prevent it because you can't force a team to sign a player if he decides he now wants 25 mil per year but it is to hinder it. The general concept is a penalty will be incurred for not signing the player. My guess is it will be a % of the bid, say 10% as a guess, which will go to the NPB team. If you want to further discourage the practice MLB could restrict said team from bidding on future imports for say 3 or 5 years. This would limit the market however for future players potentially reducing the $ for both the NPB and the player so it's not likely. Then again MLB seems to be in more of the business of strong arming others than in the past. With Selig retiring he appears to be wielding his power much heavier.
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Post by taftreign on Nov 26, 2013 17:05:05 GMT -5
Not top 10 prospect related but it is Baseball Prospectus related. Not sure where it best fit otherwise. Still I thought this article was an interesting read. www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=22309I like the idea of valuing the core of a roster. I do see some flaws in this early conceptualization as inherent in the Red Sox ranking. If the idea is to judge long term franchise value, which it does for the most part, there has to be a component that considers valuing young major league ready prospects. Clearly Boston was hurt by the impending free agents but not compensated for the expected value of their in house replacements more than what they have already contributed to the season the year prior on a limited time basis. Thoughts?
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Post by taftreign on Nov 26, 2013 16:56:00 GMT -5
My preference is for a veteran SS who can play close to 40 games. A veteran who can continue to work alongside the coaching staff in helping Bogaert's defensive progression. I'd figure to have Xander playing between 120 to 125 games at SS and the other 20 games the backup plays and Xander slides over to play 3B giving WMB around 140 to 145 games played at 3B. The veteran SS doesn't have to be a defensive specialist in my opinion sacrificing offense. By the time late August roles around I actually think with another full season in the minors Marrero could be a late season roster addition and provide above average major league defense off the bench. Wouldn't be a completely hollow bat either.
As for who that veteran SS is I've not decided. If the right candidate doesn't present itself on the market I wouldn't rule out moving a minor prospect to bring in a veteran SS via a trade.
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Post by taftreign on Nov 26, 2013 13:14:23 GMT -5
True. A restrictive amateur market and now international market has pushed much of the cash to the free agent market. Unions usually like more money for "proven" veterans. I would like however to see MLB add in a tougher salary floor or another system to insure less teams, perhaps only a handful, don't pocket the extra cash and instead put it towards the talent.
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Post by taftreign on Nov 26, 2013 12:58:08 GMT -5
Agree with ASF. No need to give Napoli the years some desperate team will. Pay Hart whatever it takes to get him on a one year deal and give Carp more ABs vs RHP. If it all works out you get as much offense as last season at 1B and a chance at another pick. I don't see a huge difference in Hart vs Napoli and I can't be convinced Beltran in LF is better than our current platoon of Gomes/Nava. Losing Ells will hurt but you could get a huge offensive upgrade at 3B if WMBs hits like 2012 or the second half of last season and our SP should be better if Buch can pitch more and we have Peavy a full season. Get 4 picks in the 25-40 range and build the farm and give yourself flexibility for when guys like Stanton, McCuthen or whoever hit the market. I would not be disappointed to see the team follow this route. I agree the team needs to add one bat, likely at 1B. What do you suggest at C? I'd lean toward landing Hannigan in a trade and go best defense behind the plate. I'd also use some of the "savings" from not signing or resigning free agents to make a significant run at Tanaka. Add a utility left side IF. I'd put that in my pocket and call it an off season.
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Post by taftreign on Nov 26, 2013 12:50:54 GMT -5
I've been reading that KC might be in the running for Beltran & they're listening to offers on Butler. What do you think it'll take to get Butler with his 1 year deal plus and option over to The Sox ? I think Butler would be an excellent fit. Maybe we trade a Dempster and unload some of his salary in trade for some of Butler's salary. KC gets a relatively good starter. We get a better player in Butler who probably starts at 1st for us and absolutely mashes LH pitching. Great Papi protection and solves 1st base on a cost controlled basis for 2 years. There is no reason why Butler can't play 1st base. He wasn't that bad there when he was a full time guy. He probably is blocked from 1st base by Hosmer and just hasn't played much 1st for several years. His UZR/150 was around a -5 when he played first full time. I think KC just wants to go cheaper at DH and why wouldn't they? If they think Butler is capable of playing 1st he is probably worth more to another team. They probably would prefer better pitching. I don't think a straight up deal gets it done but maybe we have to throw in some other players as well and maybe shoot for Hochevar in a package deal. Maybe a Dempster, Webster and Nava for Butler and Hochevar. About the same money overall. They have been talking to teams about Hochevar for a while. He is a solid reliever. They gave up on him as a starter. www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=7399&position=1B/DHwww.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6943&position=PNava could start as their DH. He would be well liked in that environment. Devout christian in Kansas. We could then sign Beltran or Choo for left field. This was my earlier thoughts: Nov 10, 2013 at 2:59am Quote Edit like Post Options Post by taftreign on Nov 10, 2013 at 2:59am This post started in my head with the idea of Dempster and a few mil for Hochevar trade with KC but I started thinking that KC and Boston could match up fairly well on a larger trade mostly for the idea that the Royals would love to add to their pitching depth, particularly any young affordable arms. This is a mix of ideas so bear with it as I haven't put the exact pieces together in my head. But it lead me to ask a few questions. First, can Billy Butler play a passable first base on a regular basis at least for a season or two? KC has mentioned his availability. He is quite affordable. Second, KC is in win now mode so would they deal a piece like Jorge Bonafacio OF who is still 2 to 3 years away from contributing. I believe the teams had a few conversations last year when discussing a potential Lester for Myers deal so have some familiarity with each other. But I wonder if there's a deal somewhere in the generalities of Peavy, Ranaudo, and Brentz for Butler, Hochevar and J. Bonafacio. Perhaps not perfectly balanced in value but a starting thought point. Peavy's 2014 AAV salary is 16.5 mil towards the cap. Butler and Hochevar would be somewhere around 13 mil. Would KC add 3.5 mil to the payroll to add a pitcher they would control for 2 seasons plus an arm that could fill in to the back of the rotation as soon as late this season and a power bat that could take some at bats in the DH spot in place of Butler. Sox would save a few bucks, add a short term answer at first at a cheaper rate than anything on the market, a solid bull pen arm who's finally found his home, and a young upside OF with future power which the system lacks at almost all levels. Maybe KC argues for Workman over Ranaudo here. Who knows but the concept seems to work. Under this scenario I would like to see the team be aggressive on the Tanaka front to fill the rotation loss. Essentially using zero payroll to add a bullpen arm and the hole at first. Butler would slide nicely into the lineup as a hitter after Ortiz Read more: forum.soxprospects.com/thread/1390/?page=4#ixzz2lm72pp9fI still like this concept but since have come to believe we should just save our "trade pieces" for when we know what we really need or if we need it. The team has already added a bullpen piece. The market is moving along but there are still values to be had with patience. Players like Peavy and Ranaudo should actually have more value at mid season assuming health. I've convinced myself that I believe Bogaerts, WMB and Bradley Jr with a Napoli or Hart can supply enough on the offensive side to get this team to the playoffs. It will be another dog fight in the AL East but I'd take my chances standing the course.
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Post by taftreign on Nov 26, 2013 12:41:13 GMT -5
This is true guidas. I believe Soriano, Ichiro, V. Wells and Gardner are all free agents after this season. They will definitely be in the market for OF's.
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