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Post by voiceofreason on Dec 10, 2021 7:14:02 GMT -5
I'm not sure that is the case, I would be happy with either one. I think many on here feel the same way but it is the OF D that would concern people with Schwarber, unless they unloaded JD. The depth in the OF should include Duran but his performance last yr when called up has really tempered the enthusiasm around him, fairly or not. He certainly wasn't the only rookie who struggled a lot when given the chance last yr. It is funny though how so many were clamoring for his debut and now he isn't discussed at all in any role. Not to get off topic, but one of the reasons why the Duran excitement has gone down is because of the strikeouts. He looked like Chavis at the plate from the left side. Couldn't hit high fastballs. Always chased. Struck out 35 percent of the time, which is pretty bad. Hey I get it completely in fact I have supported trading him to a team that can afford to let him play and develop, it looks like he needs a lot of playing time. Like Oakland for example with all the guys they have on the block, Duran IMO should be included in a deal to get something from the A's. It is hard to put him out there on a team that is trying to contend when he needs the reps, we all saw that last yr with Dalbec. I think Duran could be a very good player but he isn't there yet. Reminds me of Josh Reddick in some ways but he has serious speed that Reddick didn't.
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Post by voiceofreason on Dec 10, 2021 4:39:48 GMT -5
It’s crazy how everyone wants this man over Schwarber. I’m blown away. I'm not sure that is the case, I would be happy with either one. I think many on here feel the same way but it is the OF D that would concern people with Schwarber, unless they unloaded JD. The depth in the OF should include Duran but his performance last yr when called up has really tempered the enthusiasm around him, fairly or not. He certainly wasn't the only rookie who struggled a lot when given the chance last yr. It is funny though how so many were clamoring for his debut and now he isn't discussed at all in any role.
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Post by voiceofreason on Dec 9, 2021 20:19:11 GMT -5
That's what you do at the deadline, not during the offseason. They have choices. They are too RH already. They need a CF. They SHOULD value Suzuki less because he fits their team worse. That doesn't mean they won't be stupid, but it's stupid. Well I don't what to tell you! They are one of the most interested suiters for Suzuki. Could be posturing to raise the cost. They have bigger fish to fry with all those bloated contracts and Judge coming due.
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Post by voiceofreason on Dec 9, 2021 18:59:56 GMT -5
Either See-ya or Conforto work for me. One (Suzuki) is likely to be cheaper and comes with more risk but potentially more reward on a cost-benefit basis. The other (Conforto) likely costs more but has an impressive MLB-tested track record. I think the Sox have adequate offense and would be willing to take the risk on Suzuki if that meant more flexibility to reconstruct the stockyard. We need better bulls in that pen. I prefer Suzuki myself, maybe just because I am intrigued. But I do really do think he could be a really good player. It might depend on his ability to hit the high hard stuff which will be more than what he is used to maybe. I think Chaim is going to build the pen with a few failed starters and do the throw it against the wall and see what sticks method. Who knows BP guys are usually risky, like a box of chocolates you never know what your going to get.
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Post by voiceofreason on Dec 9, 2021 18:44:28 GMT -5
I think it will be hard to bring back both JC and Trent Brown; that leaves a lot of players at full/near market value (Mason, Wynn, Nelson A, the two TEs, Judon off the top of my head). Agree on its feasibility to keep most of the rest or work around them and still be players in the market. They can move salaries around and I think Brown is going to want to stay in New England based on his comments and the fact he hit the jackpot with the Raiders already. He could accept a reasonable offer and after missing half of this season his market might not be too high.
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Post by voiceofreason on Dec 9, 2021 13:57:48 GMT -5
I swore I wasn't going to get into it again with you but this is like 5 posts I have ignored you saying Renfroe is below average and I can't help myself. Based on what he just did last yr you just admitted he was average based on both bwar and fwar so it is only a projection that has him below so that means very little to me. You know what does matter to me? Runs, last I checked runs are what wins games and the reality of scoring runs vs an equation that tries to determine value are 2 different things and need to be balanced. Give me a team of guys who have 89 runs, 31 hrs and 96 rbis and my team is going to win a lot of games and most likely a championship. That is not below average IMO. IMO analysis should be balanced. I'm not gonna get into a debate about RBIs, but I will just say that teams value players for projected future performance, not past performance, which is the relevant issue when we're talking about a trade like this. That's why I think the projections for next season are more relevant than last season's stats. I'll grant you, though, that he was about average last season, and has been (sans 2020) since 2018.
You can argue that the projections are underestimating his future performance for whatever reason. But they feel about right to me.
Take a look at the projection column way to the right on the bwar projections for players and you will see at the top the letters "rel". It stands for reliability and is just a percentage of former stats that is used to determine future stats, it is usually a regression of 15-20%. So all they are doing is taking a percentage of what has been done and projecting everyone will regress by 15 to 20 %. LOL I mean really you think that matters to the guys running teams? Projecting is obviously not an exact science but there is next to nothing in the way of scouting involved or real analysis if all you are doing is picking a % and regressing everyone down. How about we use bwar projections for Chris Sale next season who they have a rel of 49%. 81 innings, 4.11 era, 1.259 whip, no fip prediction. He has a career 5.3 k/w rate but next yr 3.6. Basically the worst season of his career. Do we want to put much stock in that? For other guys who were having really good seasons and then missed time with injuries they still regress them down. It doesn't even make sense sometimes.
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Post by voiceofreason on Dec 9, 2021 13:14:47 GMT -5
No, he doesn't have to be the best player on the Red Sox. Wouldn't even think of it to be honest. The question is will he hit just enough to hold onto a platoon role as the regular CF or will he flat out be a #4 OF where Arroyo or whoever they get to back him up gets the bulk of ABs in the lineup. I'd be surprised if Cora left JBJ on the bench when a righthanded pitcher starts against the Sox, but we'll see how that plays out. I agree with you that once those nagging injuries start, they can be tough to shake, so he might still have times where he is dealing with those affects. Tougher to bounce back when you're older, I'd think. As aggravating as Renfroe could be with those ridiculous throws (what's a cutoff man for?) or his non-CF range at Fenway's RF, and his lack of plate discipline at times and his awful playoff performance, I still wouldn't call his 2021 performance below average. His offense was above average. His OBP wasn't that far below league average and his slugging average was well above.
His defense was so-so, as he did help win some games erasing baserunners with accurate throws. I'd say he was about average overall.
So I'd say he was average or a small touch above in 2021. I wouldn't label him as below average.There's a lot of talk about Renfroe going downward in 2022 and JBJ going upward in 2022, but it is also possible that Renfroe could be roughly the same thing in 2022 as he was in 2021 - maybe even a hair better. It's possible JBJ is a .200 hitter at this point with nagging injuries that might keep him off the field and eventually, even as soon as this year, affect his normal excellent fielding. There is that possibility to consider. I understand why others have JBJ snapping back to his normal track record and Renfroe declining off a "career year", and that is possible, but the other scenario I presented is possible, too. Hell, it's possible/most likely probable that Renfroe does decline somewhat, hits .230 and has a terrible OBP while JBJ struggles to hit .200 and stay healthy. I feel like we've gone around on this point like three times, but his offensive production was below average for a right fielder (which is how I referred to him - a "below average RFer"). And by overall fWAR he was slightly below average (just slightly above average by bWAR) but projects to be a sub-2 WAR player next season, i.e., below average.
Anyways... semantics. I accept that Renfroe will probably be better than JBJ in 2022, but as we've all discussed ad infinitum in this thread the broader context is that they're going to upgrade from Renfroe, and we'll see where we're at once they make that move. I swore I wasn't going to get into it again with you but this is like 5 posts I have ignored you saying Renfroe is below average and I can't help myself. Based on what he just did last yr you just admitted he was average based on both bwar and fwar so it is only a projection that has him below so that means very little to me. You know what does matter to me? Runs, last I checked runs are what wins games and the reality of scoring runs vs an equation that tries to determine value are 2 different things and need to be balanced. Give me a team of guys who have 89 runs, 31 hrs and 96 rbis and my team is going to win a lot of games and most likely a championship. That is not below average IMO. IMO analysis should be balanced.
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Post by voiceofreason on Dec 9, 2021 12:55:49 GMT -5
In for a penny, may as well be in for a pound. If they imagine 6/$60, but it requires 6/$90, I say do it if you believe in the guy. That $5 million-a-year means, what, a low level FA? It seems inconsequential annually. I completely agree that is why I said earlier they should just do it and get him. Not sure Chaim will feel the same way but this could really be a great get and it seems like his floor won't hurt you even if he doesn't hit his ceiling.
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Post by voiceofreason on Dec 9, 2021 12:49:27 GMT -5
Yes I hope they focus on getting JC done early and I think they will. Lots of this years signings have big jumps in cap hits but there are always ways around that. An interesting one is Agholor who will count as 15m against vs 10m if they release him, that could be 5 mil in savings but much more likely a new deal is in order. I question whether Hightower and McCourty will retire. Good chance McCourty does in my mind and DH could return but it will be for a lot less than he is making now. Maybe the year off helps DH and he has another yr in him. The big thing in todays NFL is having a competent QB on a rookie deal, which obviously the Pats have for 3 more years. So that is an extra 25-30 million in space to spend on players to really be able to go for it. Come 2025 Mac is going to be 35+ million, I hope, if he turns into the player we are all hoping for. Those two will retire if they ever won the SB this year. That’s unlikely so while they still could i think they return for another chance next year. I was thinking the same thing but didn't write it. More so for Hightower I think as Devin might just feel like he has done enough after winning with his brother and all. I wouldn't be surprised one way or another with both of them. Winning as you said isn't likely this yr but with how much fun and how they feel who knows. Considering all the new faces and important rookies I would expect them to be better next yr also. I would be surprised if Trent Brown wasn't back next season also. He left to make big money once so he is all set just like VanNoy and Collins. I love how these guys go make big bonuses else where and then come back for cheap.
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Post by voiceofreason on Dec 9, 2021 11:43:32 GMT -5
The Patriots have enough cap space to bring back everyone of those players. Heck most of those guys aren't getting big deals. JC Jackson is the worry because if you franchise him that ties up a ton of money. So right after the season he needs to be your #1 goal, get it done and get it done quickly. You can also clear over 5 million with Anderson and Guy, along with over 6 million with Jones. A Wynn extension could free up millions. They have almost 140 million in 2023 cap space, just do what you did this year, push the salary out a year and do small first year cap hits. This is easy as heck compared to what the Bucs just did. Yes I hope they focus on getting JC done early and I think they will. Lots of this years signings have big jumps in cap hits but there are always ways around that. An interesting one is Agholor who will count as 15m against vs 10m if they release him, that could be 5 mil in savings but much more likely a new deal is in order. I question whether Hightower and McCourty will retire. Good chance McCourty does in my mind and DH could return but it will be for a lot less than he is making now. Maybe the year off helps DH and he has another yr in him. The big thing in todays NFL is having a competent QB on a rookie deal, which obviously the Pats have for 3 more years. So that is an extra 25-30 million in space to spend on players to really be able to go for it. Come 2025 Mac is going to be 35+ million, I hope, if he turns into the player we are all hoping for.
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Post by voiceofreason on Dec 9, 2021 8:12:32 GMT -5
It's still all conspiracy theories to me. And no, I didn't miss that part. My guess is that the change from one ball to the other involved a lot more than just removing a few grams of twine and that the materials used to make the heavier ball were probably more available (after all it was the established model), whether because they had a bunch leftover in stock or due to supply-chain or other issues, and they went back to those because they wanted to make sure they didn't run out of balls. After all, they certainly sell more baseballs to the general public than they use in actual MLB games. They probably also needed to design new machines to make the new balls on and maybe there was a problem with those. There's a lot of perfectly boring explanations. If that's a reach, it's not nearly as big a reach as all this "they supplied specific balls to specific games to control the outcomes." Really? So they really wanted HOU back in the WS again? Against ATL?? When they had the chance to pick BOS vs. LAD?? It just doesn't pass the smell test. I basically feel the same way about conspiracy theories. The thing about them is people can't be trusted to not come out with the truth and or use the information to blackmail others if they are in on the conspiracy. In this case I also agree that each team is playing with the same balls. Maybe there is an effort to test balls and they know which ones are going where so they can measure the effects and make an informed decision on which one is better for the future of the game. That doesn't mean something nefarious was going on. And the if the rule says the ball has to be between 5-5.5 oz and they are then what is the real problem. This is like deflategate to a degree.
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Post by voiceofreason on Dec 9, 2021 7:01:17 GMT -5
This reminds me of Jose Abreu coming out of Cuba with questions around his ability to deal with higher velocity. Wonder if the same 6 year 60 million contract is in play here… Probably 6/45 with incentives to get it up to 60.... I will guess the AAV will be closer to 10 with incentives for more.
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Post by voiceofreason on Dec 8, 2021 12:17:08 GMT -5
If we really want to dream we could channel another Suzuki, Ichiro, now that would be dreaming. He came over at 27 and proceeded to win ROY, MVP and GG in his first season and hit well over 300 for the next ten years.
I think if the Sox want him they will out bid everyone and that is what is going to happen.
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Post by voiceofreason on Dec 7, 2021 9:57:57 GMT -5
Teams have instead done things like PT and awards-based bonuses so that seems kind of silly. I get that the team could potentially manipulate it but... it's even easier to manipulate a playing time bonus. Just ask Christian Vazquez, who came up 4 PA short of escalating his 2022 salary from 7 to 8 million. I didn't realize this happened and I think it is a terrible way to run a team. Pretty sure the Pats have had players come close to escalators and pay them anyway.
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Post by voiceofreason on Dec 7, 2021 8:30:03 GMT -5
Phillips did tweet the following after the game, so I’m hoping the injury isn’t too bad: That would be great news!!
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Post by voiceofreason on Dec 7, 2021 8:28:02 GMT -5
The Suzuki sweepstakes could be a good time to incorporate achievable performance related bonuses. Offer him a really strong base deal that will pay him more than what others might be offering based on incentives. That gives a level of protection for both player and team. AFAIK performance-related bonuses were disallowed under the previous CBA. Remains to be seen if they open that avenue back up It seems to me that performance bonuses could be good for both player and team so I don't get that clause.
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Post by voiceofreason on Dec 7, 2021 7:27:02 GMT -5
It was a statement win no matter how you cut it. The fact that they could move the ball at all given the Bills knew they were going to run, had a 9-10 man box and have a very good defense is just amazing. The Pats showed more fortitude but lets not forget it came down to 1st and goal for the Bills with a TD to win and the Pats held on. Now the bye comes at a great time, that is no small advantage moving into the last 4 games of the season. Every team in football would love to have a week off right about now and the Pats players have to be psyched for a break after winning 7 in a row. The players have to be riding a serious high and that matters a lot.
Not too concerned about Harris, with Stevenson the Pats can give him time to heal and be fresh for the playoffs. Phillips is another story if he has a torn achilles, that would be a big loss but BB will have the D ready and someone needs to step up.
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Post by voiceofreason on Dec 6, 2021 23:46:50 GMT -5
Maybe the greatest win in Pats history. It was a very good win. The rest of the league is unhappy the Pats are back, maybe a bit more than unhappy. Bills fans are the redheaded stepchild.
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Post by voiceofreason on Dec 6, 2021 22:24:45 GMT -5
Jakob Johnson is mauling guys out there.
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Post by voiceofreason on Dec 6, 2021 22:07:55 GMT -5
That is a very bad call.
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Post by voiceofreason on Dec 6, 2021 21:49:42 GMT -5
Do you guys really think that anybody is looking at fwar or bwar projections when they are analyzing deals. You use them like they have some actual meaning when they really don't. I am pretty sure Bloom is relying on his people and their opinions a little more than these projections, which are not really all that close often. Major league baseball literally just proposed using fWAR to determine player salaries in arbitration, and, while the publicly-available projection systems aren't as sophisticated as ones used by teams, they're the best we've got. So until Chaim opens the vault, yes, they're the best starting point to predict player performance. Certainly better than evaluating Renfroe based on how many RBIs he had last year. Keyword in my post would be projections correct? I don't think they plan on paying people based on projections quite yet.
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Post by voiceofreason on Dec 6, 2021 20:03:56 GMT -5
Do you guys really think that anybody is looking at fwar or bwar projections when they are analyzing deals. You use them like they have some actual meaning when they really don't. I am pretty sure Bloom is relying on his people and their opinions a little more than these projections, which are not really all that close often. The point was to use projections, any projections, rather than last season and just expecting duplication. I get it, it just gets to the point where they are being used to say this guy IS this and this guy IS that and because of that etc etc etc. When these projections mean very little.
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Post by voiceofreason on Dec 6, 2021 19:41:19 GMT -5
Do you guys really think that anybody is looking at fwar or bwar projections when they are analyzing deals. You use them like they have some actual meaning when they really don't. I am pretty sure Bloom is relying on his people and their opinions a little more than these projections, which are not really all that close often.
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Post by voiceofreason on Dec 6, 2021 16:11:38 GMT -5
The Pats need to contain Josh Allen running the ball tonight. If they lose it will be because Allen runs for a bunch of 1st downs and is maybe their leading rusher. Is Phillips big enough to spy him? Is Jamie Collins playing and is he still athletic enough to spy him? Or have Judon and VanNoy focus on containing him from each side.
I hope to see an aggressive D all night, 5 man rush and crowd the line of scrimmage.
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Post by voiceofreason on Dec 6, 2021 15:57:36 GMT -5
I do think that they should change pass interference to 15 yards instead of placing it at the spot of the foul. There are way too many penalty yards now, deciding way too many games. I agree with you but that would also lead to more DBs interfering a lot more on plays 30 yards down the field whenever they might be beat. It would be hard to call but maybe there could be a flagrant call that does what the current rule does with the majority of calls being 15 yds. It could work as they already have a 5 yd and a 15 yard level penalty for roughing the punter and for facemasks.
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