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Post by voiceofreason on Apr 1, 2022 9:04:49 GMT -5
Horford and Brown are 2 names that I've read. If that is the case then that is a problem for sure!!!!!!! If the C's get bounced out by Toronto and a good portion of the reason why is that I will be just a bit angry. As I would expect their teammates would be also. But if the Nets get bounced because of it and Kyries stance then I will be laughing a bit too loud.
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Post by voiceofreason on Apr 1, 2022 8:49:07 GMT -5
"Boom or bust" Don't agree, even with what he has done in his first 7 months of MLB playing time he is a serviceable player and average with a career OPS of 819. It is just that he gets to that average by being terrible half the time and being one of the best hitters in baseball the other half. If he progresses just a little more he is a very good player and all indications show he is doing just that. How about a 265/325/525 season this year, that is completely in the realm of possibility this yr for a guy with his experience and track record. And IMO he could easily surpass those numbers and be closer to a 900 OPS player. How would that look added to this Sox lineup. It's certainly a question of consistency with him but I don't think I would be in the wrong questioning whether his stretch where he was one of the best hitters in the league is something he's going to do again. I'm not going to do the whole well take that out and he was unplayable argument. I believe he deserves the chance to play everyday and prove what type of player he is. All I'm saying is that I wouldn't be surprised if at the end of the year we're looking at a guy we wish we'd traded. I wouldn't be surprised if we're happy we didn't. I guess my main thought is I still have no idea what the heck dalbec is as a player yet. So to me he's still boom or bust. I get what you are saying, I am sure we both want to see the same thing in the end. I am just more bullish on him and generally more of an optimist when it comes to everything to do with Boston sports. It is more fun for me that way as I am always hopeful for great things and when it doesn't happen I just move on. Can't win every year but I truly believe BD is going to be very good. What he is learning about that longer stance with no leg lift without losing too much power could be a epiphany for him.
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Post by voiceofreason on Apr 1, 2022 7:56:21 GMT -5
Toronto is not ideal given the speculated vax staus of some key members of the team. I didn't realize that was an issue. Who are the speculated guys?
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Post by voiceofreason on Apr 1, 2022 7:15:02 GMT -5
Reasons why "In Bloom we Trust." 1. He didn't trade Dalbec. Dalbec is pretty much boom or bust, at this point there's no telling in three months if we'll be saying well I still trust Bloom but he didn't trade dalbec and mean the opposite of how you're saying it now. "Boom or bust" Don't agree, even with what he has done in his first 7 months of MLB playing time he is a serviceable player and average with a career OPS of 819. It is just that he gets to that average by being terrible half the time and being one of the best hitters in baseball the other half. If he progresses just a little more he is a very good player and all indications show he is doing just that. How about a 265/325/525 season this year, that is completely in the realm of possibility this yr for a guy with his experience and track record. And IMO he could easily surpass those numbers and be closer to a 900 OPS player. How would that look added to this Sox lineup.
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Post by voiceofreason on Apr 1, 2022 7:01:13 GMT -5
Starter | IP
| Reliever 1
| IP | Reliever 2
| IP
| Eovaldi | 6 | Whitlock | 2 | Barnes | 1 | Pivetta | 6 | Holland | 1-2 |
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| Houck | 5 | Strahm | 1 |
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| Hill | 5 | Whitlock | 3 | Barnes | 1 | Wacha | 5 | Holland | 1-2
| Strahm | 1 | Sub-totals
| 27
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| 9 |
| 3
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Spitballing here about what the Sox innings load is going to look like.
One turn through the rotation is five games times nine innings, totaling 45 innings.
The guys in the table are the guys who are the starters plus the guys who have looked the best so far to me. (Southpaws in italics.)
I have Whitlock piggy-backing with Hill and then throwing another couple innings between Hill's starts, for ~5 IP/turn for Whitlock, not unlike a sixth starter. Holland only debuted today but he did pretty well; maybe a week will be enough for him. Strahm and Barnes have been okay too.
There are nine guys in the table accounting for 39 of the 45 IP needed for one turn through the rotation. Starting the year, there are likely to be 15 pitchers on the staff (according to AC, IIRC), which will drop to 13 at some point. That means that in this projection, the remaining 6 IP would need to come from a combination of Davis, Valdez, Brasier, Sawamura, Darwinzon, Diekman, Bazardo, and Garza -- six of whom will likely be on the roster to break camp and then the best four will remain when roster settle at 26, with others moving on or off the roster based on performance or injuries.
The table reflects what I would think would be mid-season workloads, when the rosters are at 26. When the rosters are expanded at the beginning of the season, the starters' workloads may well be truncated, so the six pitchers not in the table might need to account for 8-10 IP, whereas in mid-season it might be four guys combining for 6 IP. Also, there may well be turns when Barnes and/or Strahm pitch more than twice but twice seems like a good average. [N.B. Pitching twice every five games would work out to 64 appearances in a season.]
Writing it out like this makes me worry a little less about the staff heading into the season. A lot of relievers have struggled but in the end, they're not likely to account for a lot of innings, if these numbers hold up. Obviously, Barnes is going to have to be the Barnes who got paid last year, rather than the Barnes who didn't earn that new paycheck. At least three or four of the other (dozen or so) relievers need to be solid, as well. Starter depth (in the event of injury) looks like it is going to be Whitlock (moving into a full-time role) and Crawford early, with Winckowski and Seabold behind them and Sale and maybe Paxton available later. Groome, Bello, Ward, Mata in late summer?
I like the effort and the thoughts on how it could go this year, thanks and it is close to how I see it going. You mention "worry less", I am not worried at all and think the team era will be in the 3.8 region. Just want to point out that the average start last season averaged 4 2/3 innings so backing off the actual starters just a little bit might be closer, as strange as that sounds. One more thing in looking at how TBays staffs have been managed and how it relates to the Sox. Just like the Sox they have a deep group between AAA and MLB and they aren't afraid to use them in those 2,3 inning roles. I think we will see a lot of guys that rotate thru the staff and if they aren't getting it done they won't get a long look unless they are producing, unless they are part of the core with higher expectations. Last thought is that if they can have a healthy dominant Chris Sale in the 2nd half and playoffs then the sky is the limit, he is the key along with health.
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Post by voiceofreason on Apr 1, 2022 6:24:28 GMT -5
C's are in the perfect position in the standings right now, third place would have them playing the 6th seed and avoiding the Nets. With RW being out for at least the first series that is a big deal. It won't be easy but I think they still have a chance to go pretty far this year, it all comes down to the shots falling. If they can shoot around 40% from 3 and avoid the 25% nights while playing tough D and running they should be around for the ECF when hopefully Rob will be a factor again. They need some luck with the road in getting there.
edit. obviously the 4th seed would accomplish the same thing.
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Post by voiceofreason on Mar 31, 2022 6:06:28 GMT -5
Marcus, 13-41 and 12 turnovers, 2 Celtic losses. Just when we all thought he had figured out who he was. Pass the F-ing ball Marcus!
I swear the C's winning % has got to be about 15% when he takes more than 12 shots a game.
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Post by voiceofreason on Mar 30, 2022 15:22:22 GMT -5
So you're in FAVOR of cherry-picking? Of course not, it was an extreme example of cherry picking. Why do you think I added the link. If you read the posts you would know better.
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Post by voiceofreason on Mar 30, 2022 7:08:06 GMT -5
This is where last year’s signings start to come back to haunt you. Played with cap math to minimize the year one cap hit last year, but it’s now year two and those cap numbers start to increase. Meanwhile, you don’t get enough in the way of cap savings if you release them so they’re stuck on the roster. Need to get more out of Agholor and Smith. Absolutely need to get more out of those two!! It is one of the keys to this upcoming season IMO and I am confident it is going to happen. The second yr in the Pats system for those 2, Henry, Bourne and Mac should be much improved is the reason for my optimism. Along with the fact that Mac didn't really work with the first team during training camp. Throw in the 2nd yr for Stephenson and I see a much more dangerous offense, I don't really get all the noise about them not being good.
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Post by voiceofreason on Mar 29, 2022 18:55:04 GMT -5
Maybe you are right but I don't think it is as easy as that. in 1961 it was .95/game in 2014 it was .86/game. So it ranges from 1 hr every 2 games to 1 every 5 games. HR are up almost 50% since 2014 though. Like I said we can cherry pick yrs or look at the last 60 and see that yes they have gone up but they have been up and down the whole time. Like 2019 to 2021 they are down over 10%. www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/bat.shtml
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Post by voiceofreason on Mar 29, 2022 17:21:25 GMT -5
HRs were hit at a rate of around .8 - .9 per game with some lower like during the high pitching mound yrs. 1970 .88 1977 .87 Last yr it was 1.22. In the last 10 years it has varied from .94 to a high of 1.38. When I said 1 every 3,4 games I wasn't going back that far. You can cherry pick yrs to try and prove a point but the difference between .8 and 1.2 is a half a HR per game and those are more run of the mill average numbers, not too cherry picked without me doing a bunch of math to be precise. That would be 50% more HRs. There is also the argument that the pitchers are also so much better that stringing together enough hits to score isn't as effective as going for the fences. That is part of the TTO argument also. Batting averages are down overall so the guys who aren't HR hitters are not as successful getting hits either. IMO the average player is a lot better now and the pitchers aren't able to throw meatballs up there so they throw harder with more spin and for fewer innings. That is the evolution of the game. Batting averages are down because everyone is trying to hit home runs and has a launch angle swing. And the differences you're talking about in HR per game is huge. 50% more HR is a huge number. Maybe you are right but I don't think it is as easy as that. in 1961 it was .95/game in 2014 it was .86/game. So it ranges from 1 hr every 2 games to 1 every 5 games.
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Post by voiceofreason on Mar 29, 2022 16:35:43 GMT -5
Some are acting as if it is something crazy like a HR more per game when it is more like 1 more HR every 3 or 4 games based on the numbers. How the heck is 1 more HR every 3 or 4 games ruining or really changing the game for the worse. One more HR every 30 or so innings doesn't seem like a problem to me. What time period are you talking about? Because if you compare like 1978 to 2021, it's double. Total home runs - 5929 to 2956. If you compare 1968 which is when the mound was lowered a year later to 2021, it's triple. I can't find home runs per 9 innings and admittingly the league has expanded, but there wouldn't be any TTO players if there weren't as many home runs now. HRs were hit at a rate of around .8 - .9 per game with some lower like during the high pitching mound yrs. 1970 .88 1977 .87 Last yr it was 1.22. In the last 10 years it has varied from .94 to a high of 1.38. When I said 1 every 3,4 games I wasn't going back that far. You can cherry pick yrs to try and prove a point but the difference between .8 and 1.2 is a half a HR per game and those are more run of the mill average numbers, not too cherry picked without me doing a bunch of math to be precise. That would be 50% more HRs. There is also the argument that the pitchers are also so much better that stringing together enough hits to score isn't as effective as going for the fences. That is part of the TTO argument also. Batting averages are down overall so the guys who aren't HR hitters are not as successful getting hits either. IMO the average player is a lot better now and the pitchers aren't able to throw meatballs up there so they throw harder with more spin and for fewer innings. That is the evolution of the game.
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Post by voiceofreason on Mar 29, 2022 14:43:00 GMT -5
Sounds like 0% chance that Refsnyder sneaks on to the opening day roster. Funny how Duggy was one of the best players on the Sox in 2020 and now everyone is down on him as if he was really terrible last yr.
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Post by voiceofreason on Mar 29, 2022 14:41:11 GMT -5
How bad is the qualifying offer hurting Conforto right now. Can he accept it or has that ship sailed?
edit. no he can't
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Post by voiceofreason on Mar 29, 2022 14:28:28 GMT -5
Peppers to NE for 1 yr, per Schefter BB the mad scientist is going to have fun with that group of safeties this season. Can they get all 4 of them on the field at the same time? We all wanted speed at the LB position so now there is another option.
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Post by voiceofreason on Mar 29, 2022 14:25:03 GMT -5
Some are acting as if it is something crazy like a HR more per game when it is more like 1 more HR every 3 or 4 games based on the numbers. How the heck is 1 more HR every 3 or 4 games ruining or really changing the game for the worse. One more HR every 30 or so innings doesn't seem like a problem to me.
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Post by voiceofreason on Mar 28, 2022 7:01:48 GMT -5
Just checking out the schedule to start the season and it has the Sox playing half their games against the other 3 AL East contenders and the White Sox, tough way to start without your ace.
The other thing was a 5 game series vs the orioles to end May, that's a first.
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Post by voiceofreason on Mar 28, 2022 5:53:00 GMT -5
Some sources said Robs ACL is torn.
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Post by voiceofreason on Mar 27, 2022 15:52:53 GMT -5
Funny thing about Hill: he has not had an ERA above 3.86 since 2013, and yet every projection on fangraphs has him at 4.55 or worse for 2022 (most are at 4.93). Exactly!! The perception of him vs the reality is crazy. I grab him for cheap on my fantasy team every chance I get.
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Post by voiceofreason on Mar 27, 2022 5:17:19 GMT -5
Blasphemy, how dare you!!! Yorke is going to be cruising up to AA by August and I can't wait to see him play in Portland. 365/420/610 OPS >1000, there is no holding him back. I was thinking down for Yorke, Casas, and Mayer. Not because I think all three will be down, but odds are great one of them struggles… then you nailed it! I want to see nothing but big numbers from these 3. BIG BIG numbers!! Keep the hype going.
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Post by voiceofreason on Mar 26, 2022 10:09:18 GMT -5
My two cents, is I think some people are overreacting. I've seen 52 wins predicted, 18-4 is one heck of a finish. That is a bit crazy but given the schedule I think 15-7, 16-6 is reasonable. For them to remain on the same trajectory as a team that can succeed in the playoffs then 50 wins seems like the target. The C's have gone 12-2 since these posts.
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Post by voiceofreason on Mar 26, 2022 9:56:35 GMT -5
How about the 4 team battle at the top of the East? Impressive to say the least.
Celtics getting 3 days off is great timing as long as their isn't any rust.
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Post by voiceofreason on Mar 26, 2022 8:37:00 GMT -5
Up: Downs, Jimenez, Lugo
Down: Yorke, Walter, Winckowski
My heuristic is: the worst way to predict the future is to project present trends forward. So I'm doing the opposite.
Blasphemy, how dare you!!! Yorke is going to be cruising up to AA by August and I can't wait to see him play in Portland. 365/420/610 OPS >1000, there is no holding him back.
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Post by voiceofreason on Mar 26, 2022 8:27:52 GMT -5
Thanks Nutty for all the effort in posting!!
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Post by voiceofreason on Mar 25, 2022 7:02:40 GMT -5
So I can only pick 3 risers, that will be hard but I will pick the not so obvious ones and say. Binelas, Blazer and Liu.
Sadly for Downs he is on everyones list and needs a big turnaround, which seems doubtful.
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