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Post by voiceofreason on Mar 22, 2022 16:06:36 GMT -5
No one has yet to mention the poor performances of prospects coming up last season after having a season off from covid. It is a long list of guys who were highly touted and absolutely s#cked on the same level as Duran when they came up. Maybe that will change a bit this yr but the difference between AAA and the show has never been more pronounced. Just think about Franchy also, huge in AAA but couldn't get out of his own way in Boston right. I think Casas will crush Worcester but struggle a bit when he gets the call in Boston just like guys did last yr. On the flipside I think Bobby D is going to hit well enough so that Casas isn't needed so they will keep him down longer. Shaw isn't that bad of a player either, he has had his moments in the sun. I'm not sure you can throw it on covid as much as the jump from AAA to MLB is pretty big. Trout Rizzo and countless others have failed their 1st time up. Lets see the adjustments Duran makes this year. But asking Casas to crush immediately is a huge ask. It is a combination of both but having a year off certainly doesn't help ones game when developing towards the majors. Duran becoming good would be a great revelation, he can affect the game in so many ways if he can just make that jump.
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Post by voiceofreason on Mar 22, 2022 14:02:49 GMT -5
Udoka indicated that he was gonna play him in the 4th but OKC kept fighting back. Come on Ime have some confidence in the kid he needs the support I mean you are up 24. And they were coming back because everyone was gassed. I have seen high school hockey games that were for a playoff win and the coach would just roll his top 2 lines because of the pressure to win. Of course you lose to another good team that rolls 3 and sometimes 4. And I knew he had good players who would only get a few shifts. The way the C's play D they need a breather.
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Post by voiceofreason on Mar 22, 2022 13:57:36 GMT -5
Payton Pritchard last 12 games 17.7 minutes 9.8 point, 2.3 rebounds, 2.4 assists, while shooting 54.4% and 50.9% from deep. Four straight double figure scoring games. He helps balance the bench and gives you another shooter that can go off. The results, first time this year the offense has scored over 120 points in three straight games. I've given Ime a bunch of crap, yet that's exactly what you want to see. Them winning games with offense, 126, 124 and 132 points the last three games. More than a few of us have been clamoring for this for a year now and it is finally happening and playing an up tempo games. One thing to get used to is the quick shots, it makes sense as the D isn't set and the opening is there. It is just that for decades we have heard move the ball to get a good shot when the fact is if everyone is just getting back on D and you are already putting up an open 3 it might be the best shot opportunity your going to get. If your playing a good defensive team like the C's it might definitely be the best shot your going to get, it is just hard if it is a miss to not think "move the ball'.
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Post by voiceofreason on Mar 22, 2022 7:03:46 GMT -5
No one has yet to mention the poor performances of prospects coming up last season after having a season off from covid. It is a long list of guys who were highly touted and absolutely s#cked on the same level as Duran when they came up. Maybe that will change a bit this yr but the difference between AAA and the show has never been more pronounced. Just think about Franchy also, huge in AAA but couldn't get out of his own way in Boston right.
I think Casas will crush Worcester but struggle a bit when he gets the call in Boston just like guys did last yr. On the flipside I think Bobby D is going to hit well enough so that Casas isn't needed so they will keep him down longer. Shaw isn't that bad of a player either, he has had his moments in the sun.
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Post by voiceofreason on Mar 22, 2022 6:39:10 GMT -5
I mean really how do you look at this and not see a great fit for Fenway and 70+ extra base hits with great IF D. How can you can not be excited about this signing I don't know. And that spray chart is him in a down yr. /photo/1 Hes a really good fit on paper. Spray chart is impressive. However if the price of him coming over is letting go of Devers or Xander it wasn't worth it. But for 2022 the lineup is more diverse. I'm not sure its better. It depends what they do in Right Field. Hopefully not JBJ. I really don't think it will be the reason either Bogey or Raffy leave. I think the Sox will try to get a little bit of a hometown discount based on the defense they provide and their desire to play for a contender along with the clubhouse culture. If they leave it will be because they want top dollar and I am fine seeing them go if that is what they want as they aren't perfect players and will most likely need to play at a position of less value rather soon. In Raffys case maybe not if he can just stop with the routine play errors and bad throws. If X will take around 27-28 and Raffy 28-30 I think that can work as long as they have enough young talent on controlled contracts to balance it out. That is where a strong farm system comes into play via prospects and or trades. And let me just say I am looking forward to a bunch of Sox prospects having great seasons and the system jumping up to top 5 status.
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Post by voiceofreason on Mar 22, 2022 6:09:49 GMT -5
24 point lead going into 4th and Nesmith doesn't get off the bench in a back to back and only 8 guys get run. Has he been that bad? Nesmith has been injured That is better than the alternative.
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Post by voiceofreason on Mar 22, 2022 4:16:55 GMT -5
I mean really how do you look at this and not see a great fit for Fenway and 70+ extra base hits with great IF D. How can you can not be excited about this signing I don't know. And that spray chart is him in a down yr.
/photo/1
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Post by voiceofreason on Mar 22, 2022 4:06:52 GMT -5
The list of guys he let go is long but the list of guys who succeeded to the same degree on other teams is short. So I agree with rjp he does pay the ones he feels are elite and he does a good job of figuring out who is and who isn't. In regards to Gilmore, when they signed him it was a first day signing for big bucks at the time. He knew what he had in SG. Not to bash JC as he was very good but isn't the high INT and PDs numbers indicative of teams not fearing him. Maybe they should have more as his numbers are great across the board but I trust BB knew what he had and didn't consider him worth top money. He hasn't been afraid to franchise guys in the past and JC said he would play under the tag so... Some teams keep corners on a certain side and thus teams will just stay away. Bill lines up his top corner on the top players, they follow that player. So was Jackson targeted more or less than Gilmore? Compare 2019 Gilmores best year, 16 games 101 targets, 50.5% completion, 44.1 QBR. Jackson last year 17 games 106 targets, 49.1% completion, 46.8 QBR. Gilmore 20 PD tops in league, Jackson 23 tops in league, Gilmore 6 interceptions, Jackson 8. The big difference Gilmore an incredible zero TDs, Jackson gave up 3. Yet Gilmores other all pro year he gave up 5 TDs. If you want a weakness, it's his run support. I meant to mention that and have in the past when comparing the situation with Asante who wasn't good with run support either. And being weak in run support is a big deal. Some thoughts on NE and FA. Last offseason the Pats did 2 years worth of FA signings and it was smart as many teams didn't have much to spend and the Pats needed a major overhaul of talent, which led to a playoff spot. And lets not minimize the fact that all those 1st yr players under BB could see some improvements in yr 2 of working in his systems along with his coaching. Throw in the fact that they knew the caps would be going up big time and it was a very real reason to go big before the caps did. In just 1 yr some of those contracts are starting to look better and just wait until next yr. The Pats had a rookie QB who didn't get many 1st team looks in training camp. So they have 4 new receivers with a new QB all learning as the season goes on. Is it a stretch to think that this years training camp will more beneficial to that group being more in sync? Not a small thing IMO. So given the Pats had a guy like Onwenu waiting in the wings and have resigned Brown, which I thought was a given after his comments and Raider ordeal, they are only down a LG. So go get 2 guards in the draft if you don't like your depth or just 1 in the 3rd or 4th rd and that should solve that problem. You have to know that BB had a plan when he traded Shaq right. Sure there have been some mistakes on his part thru the yrs but hasn't he been right more often than not when it comes to knowing his own players? And I am guessing they see some guards in this draft that they feel can step right in. A quick look and there are some guys with the versatility that BB likes and it has to be about the easiest position on the field to fill. There seems to be a lot of pessimism surrounding the team this year and I for one don't see it. I see a roster that is full of guys who could/should improve with another year in the system and young guys who will get their chance and also improve. Stephenson for one is a guy who I think can be used more as a dual threat as he showed some chops in the passing game out of the backfield, he just needs work in pass protection and picking up the blitz. Another guy who I am hoping gets his chance is Nixon as a deep threat if Agholar doesn't take a step forward. IMO the roster is full of those players, guys that could really shine when given the chance.
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Post by voiceofreason on Mar 22, 2022 3:09:48 GMT -5
The thing I don’t like about this is that havibg to get signs right, avoiding cross-ups, not letting guys on 2nd steal signs… that is exciting. Big picture, it is the tv stuff that makes games a joke. Too many long breaks for ads. But they won’t change that, so they’ll change parts of the game that don’t need changing. Amen, brother. I for one do not find it exciting. Golf has ads playing within the screen while the coverage continues. So maybe MLB could adopt the same and cut out half the down time by not cutting away half the time, what could that add up to 15-20 minutes/game? That would be the single most effective time saving idea of all. They could do it half the time in between innings, during pitching changes, mound visits, replay challenges. They could possibly increase the actual minutes of ad times while at the same time reduce the game time by 20 minutes. Heck I click to another channel when the Ads start all the time. Yes, I see a future where the electronics will take over the pitch calling and I like it. And it would help leviate the need for catchers making mound visits to get on the sane page. Yes, start to enforce the time in between pitches. I hate the end of NBA games for the same reason, it takes FOREVER!! Sorry to you purists who don't care about the length of a game or the extent to which teams go to steal signs but things will be done to address it and life will go on. Change is inevitable.
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Post by voiceofreason on Mar 22, 2022 2:36:12 GMT -5
24 point lead going into 4th and Nesmith doesn't get off the bench in a back to back and only 8 guys get run. Has he been that bad?
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Post by voiceofreason on Mar 21, 2022 19:12:39 GMT -5
I go C if what we are talking about is this coming season. Story is obviously a huge upgrade, finally a legit Pedey replacement. But… they made a mediocre OF even worse. Story has to be a hitting machine to make that a demonstrable step up. On the pitching side, they lost ERod and Ottavino. The pitching additions do not replace that. Barnes goes into the year more dubious than last year. Paxton and Hill could easily be non-factors. BUT… the biggest questions and ways the team might be more improved than it seems are the younger returning guys. If Whitlock and Houck are good, who cares about Hill and Paxton? If Dalbec is improved, that is huge. So I’d say a C for how they went about trying to be better this season, but they might be better if everything falls the right way. Some good thoughts on the young guys getting better, that is always the hope right. And they have a lot of guys that look like they could be good to very good. I think, and I have said this so many times I think the mods could be watching, that the way they plan on using Wacha and Hill will be asking for more quality and less quantity. If they can go thru the lineup twice effectively that is what is the hope. Then you have Houck and Whitlock doing the same thing. Shorter outings will be the rule and for guys like Wacha and Hill that will help them be more effective and healthier over the course of the season. As for Barnes going in more dubious than before I don't agree. He was having his best season ever until August then something happened so if anything we can at least hope for a return to that guy rather than what he has always been. I am optimistic he will find that form again.
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Post by voiceofreason on Mar 21, 2022 17:10:28 GMT -5
All I’m saying is if Bill felt JC was elite he would have paid him that contract. Gilmore wasn’t elite when he first got here either but Bill saw what he saw in him and felt he would be, took half a year then he was… i have no idea if he feels that way about Ward, I was just looking at the available guys and he’s the one that stood out to me. I just have to ask, how do you come up with that? Like Bill pays all elite players? The list he's let go or traded is crazy long. I'm certain he has some plan, yet we haven't seen it yet. Remember they wanted to do an extension and Jackson didn't even respond, knowing Bill that's the reason. The list of guys he let go is long but the list of guys who succeeded to the same degree on other teams is short. So I agree with rjp he does pay the ones he feels are elite and he does a good job of figuring out who is and who isn't. In regards to Gilmore, when they signed him it was a first day signing for big bucks at the time. He knew what he had in SG. Not to bash JC as he was very good but isn't the high INT and PDs numbers indicative of teams not fearing him. Maybe they should have more as his numbers are great across the board but I trust BB knew what he had and didn't consider him worth top money. He hasn't been afraid to franchise guys in the past and JC said he would play under the tag so...
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Post by voiceofreason on Mar 21, 2022 8:22:14 GMT -5
LOL... some great comments on here. Ime has gone from being tarred and feathered to Coach of the year in a matter of months. That is no easy accomplishment in Boston.
How about going on a road trip against some strong teams and averaging 20 point wins. The thing is when the J's are hitting their shots this team looks unbeatable with that D. And D doesn't really have slumps so they can rely on that when the J's are a little off. Also as someone mentioned with that D they are getting out and running more and not letting the opponent set their D. All the things I was hoping to see, I wish the playoffs could start right now!!!
Oh and lest I forget, Both the B's and the C's have the best records in their respective sports since the start of the new yr. Playoffs will be fun this year.
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Post by voiceofreason on Mar 21, 2022 8:06:58 GMT -5
Does anyone really think it's difficult for a very good defensive SS to move to 2b? Tired of this point in every article. Iglesias did it with one day of practice. The only difference besides much easier throws and being able to take a lot more time making them is turning a double play. IMO a great defensive SS like Story now will be a contender for a GG at 2nd, if it is common knowledge that your best defensive players are at short then wouldn't that make sense? Yes, the hard part will be turning the double play but have you all seen him throw from deep in the hole at short on a jump throw? He is one of the best I have seen doing it and it is the same move as turning a hard DP.
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Post by voiceofreason on Mar 21, 2022 8:01:06 GMT -5
For all the reasons that have been thrown out, this is a very good signing: - it's a fair price
- he's agreed to play second
- he's been outstanding at SS and he can spell Bogaerts
- he gives the FO a lot of options going forward since:
- markets are uncertain
- injuries always a possibility
- prospects don't come with guarantees
[/ul] If his output was affected by the injury last hear and he hits, say, with an OPS+ of 110 at 2 nd base, he probably sneaks into the top ten at the position. And that may be low given his defense. I need to find out more about the contract, but the deal-making has been impressive since Bloom showed up.[/quote]I agree with all your bulleted points, Norm. But I can up with reasons why it may NOT be a good deal for the RS. Granted, I am a hard sell when it comes to big contracts, but here it goes: - If Story is here for the entire contract, the back end is likely to be a burden. That is true of just about all big contracts.
- I can easily see him having a rough first year in Boston. Story is coming off a down year and will enter the '22 season with a very short ST. I wouldn't be surprised to see him get in a hole early and struggle to get out. As we know, there's a history of splashy, new acquisitions struggling in their first year here.
- I see a lot of downside risk for the 2022 RS unless they move aggressively for a SP. I'm not predicting a 75-win season - I'm thinking more in the range of .500 - but I don't think a disaster is out of the question. We saw the RS enter the 2012, 2014 and 2015 seasons with big payrolls and a lot of big names and spiral downward quickly. If they have a lousy, non-contending year, they'll have used up one of the years in which Story is supposed to be decent. As I said, the back end of a big contract is assumed to be bad.
- I just don't like giving up a pick. I have a lot of confidence in CB's ability to hit on picks and want to see him have as many cracks at it as possible. I don't know why anyone would feel otherwise, given the way Nick Yorke has forced his way into the top 100 and Blaze Jordan, a third-rounder, has quickly become a legitimate prospect.
I'm still mulling this signing over in my feeble, little head. For now, I'm in the undecided column.
[/quote]Yeah know what those teams you mention with good/expensive rosters that under performed didn't have? Alex Cora running the show and managing the clubhouse culture. He is one of the best and this is a group of guys that have fun together, that matters. Remember last season when they went into that August debacle, a lot of teams don't rebound from that, the Sox did. And if Story does the same in the next 6 yrs as he did in his first 6 along with some decent numbers at the end of his career he is the conversation for the HOF. I know that might sound hyperbolic to some of you but he plays a great SS and averages 30 HRs a season. Sure he played in Colorado but the spray chart shows he would hit just as many in Fenway. And for those of you who think the wall might take some away as wall balls well that is true but I think we can all agree that it gives more than it takes unless your a big dude who crushes line drives rather than getting loft. I am going to guess that Story is more of a loft guy than a Wily Mo Pena who put dents in the wall. Next time someone starts to have doubts about this deal I recommend taking a good look at the contract Seager signed or even Baez for that matter. edit: As a mtter of fact the Sox o/u wins total is 85.5 at the moment and I am going to bet over.
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Post by voiceofreason on Mar 20, 2022 11:43:34 GMT -5
I think Bogaerts doesn’t want to move before his payday. Once he gets paid, I bet he’s more willing to move. One way or another, I bet Story is at short next year This could very well be but the Sox could extend him right now and take that carrot away. He is supposed to get 20 this yr so add 3 yrs and offer 7/189 which is 27aav but actually 28 with the added 7 from this yr. Takes him to his age 35 season with a small hometown discount which given what Story just signed for is a reasonable contract for both X and the Sox.
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Post by voiceofreason on Mar 20, 2022 11:23:36 GMT -5
According to Buster Olney, Bogaerts not only helped recruit Story but he was one of the main recruiters. That’s interesting. really just speaks to the character of Bogey. Thanks for posting. That makes me wonder if X is willing to move.... Storys defensive highlight film is pretty impressive. Either way the infield D is improved. IMO the Sox roster looks really good. If Duggy and CV can each return to 2020 levels that is a potent offense.
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Post by voiceofreason on Mar 20, 2022 11:04:53 GMT -5
Conspiracy, the Sox didnt seriously negotiate with Fabian and his price tag because they wanted the pick the following year knowing they’d be making at least one big free agent splash and would be losing at least one comp pick I just read that the Sox will be giving up the pick they will get from compensation for losing ERod to the Tigers.
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Post by voiceofreason on Mar 20, 2022 11:01:09 GMT -5
Whats not to like?
Until this past season which he played with an injury he was easily one of top 5 SS in all of baseball and the Sox got him for A LOT less then others got this offseason. And he is playing 2nd base for us no less. Now the Sox have a top 5 2nd basemen.
Great D, 30+ hr bat with a good OBP, what more do you want more walks.
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Post by voiceofreason on Mar 20, 2022 10:11:22 GMT -5
I think you are missing out on the thought of Xander ending his career in the OF, it is an option for a 33 yr old whose strongest traits are at the plate. And whose SS D is already limited. And although I don't love the idea but if that infield of the future continues to shine it could be how you get an ace in a trade. The Sox haven't developed an ace in a long time nor do they have one in the minors. Hopefully they won't be drafting high enough in the future to draft one either so it is either a trade or a 35 million dollar FA. voice...the only problem with that he is on the record and not wanting any part of a position change, said so recently. He is gonna go where he can play SS and I think there are teams that will let him. He has said in the past he would move or it has been reported. It is the when that matters, of course he doesn't want to now for a bunch of reasons but at 33 it will be different. edit: I think/hope
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Post by voiceofreason on Mar 20, 2022 10:01:39 GMT -5
This is Story's age 29 season, so six years gets you through his age 34 season. 35 is the limit even if the 7th year team option gets triggered. They could certainly still keep X; prospects can always bust or be traded, and if X is signed to a good deal he could even get traded if/when a prospect is ready to supplant him. It may be harder to be the high bidder with Story on the team, though. I don’t see them signing Story to this contract then signing Devers and X, all while their best prospects are at SS, 2b, and 1b. This strikes me as “the plan.” Story is cheaper than X will be, and then you turn the infield over to Mayer/Yorke and Casas. Maaayyybee keep Devers. I think you are missing out on the thought of Xander ending his career in the OF, it is an option for a 33 yr old whose strongest traits are at the plate. And whose SS D is already limited. And although I don't love the idea but if that infield of the future continues to shine it could be how you get an ace in a trade. The Sox haven't developed an ace in a long time nor do they have one in the minors. Hopefully they won't be drafting high enough in the future to draft one either so it is either a trade or a 35 million dollar FA.
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Post by voiceofreason on Mar 20, 2022 9:50:16 GMT -5
I could be wrong obviously but I don't see this as an indication that Xander is gone. I still think if he is willing to take a realistic deal then he stays, if he wants top of the market then it is bye bye and Story gives them the insurance to allow that. But overall I think the front office and Xander wants to stay in Boston LT.
I think some people on here forget that when Xander signed that deal it was a bit of a hometown discount but not huge, that next season is when he exploded and he has become well under paid ever since.
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Post by voiceofreason on Mar 20, 2022 9:38:24 GMT -5
Does anyone have any insight into CBT rules? I was thinking Chaim should go with an "x+1" philosophy with an opt out. So if story wants a 5/125 contract give him a 6th year worth like $1 million but have an opt out after the 5th yr. Story will automatically opt out and become a free agent after the 5th yr, but the total contract would go from 5/125 to 6/126 to reduce AAV and count less towards the CBT. Seems like something most teams should do. CBT loophole? Or is it just the fact that players want to have high AAVs for precedent so they avoid this? This is a good question and I don't have the answer but if you did this you would then have to add all that savings in AAV calculation back in as dead money that 6th yr. Just my guess.
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Post by voiceofreason on Mar 20, 2022 9:34:24 GMT -5
Well I was wrong and I am glad as I see this as a contract that is very favorable to the Sox in comparison to the other deals inked by similar players. Almost seems like the Sox got a hometown discount. And it also helps with the Xander extension to a certain degree as it sets the market for the team.
This is a good day for Sox fans IMO.
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Post by voiceofreason on Mar 20, 2022 9:17:28 GMT -5
Well, I hope it works. I guess this might mean goodbye to Xander, which is extremely irksome. My concern is this is more in the Hanley, Crawford, Panda line: need to make a move, last man standing, not necessarily what you want but there it is. If it is cheaper than expected, and if he is cool at 2b going forward, fine. Yeah I would have to agree with you it seems forced by the market and the Blue Jays deals. I was starting to get my mind wrapped around the current roster and thinking it was ok but this is definitely better. And I am not going to concern myself too much with the contract, whatever it isn't my money, I just hope it isn't something that could drag them down on the back end too much.
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