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Post by maxwellsdemon on Feb 27, 2014 18:10:21 GMT -5
I just can't see Drew signing for one year and getting back to the QO point. I'm guessing when he declined ours he was thinking 4 years but I could see the NYMs at 2 yrs and $20m. Drew should welcome a 1 year $10mm deal with the Mets. He gets to play full time and if he plays well and they QO him he will get over $14mm for the second year, otherwise he's back on the market without the QO attached and can find a 3 year deal. A little risky for him vis-a-vis injury, but still it's $10 in the bank and the leverage is back on his side.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Feb 16, 2014 22:05:24 GMT -5
moonstone2, the world isn't binary, every situation is not a case of A versus notA. What Dempster did was act with class, someone making a different decision is not automatically classless. If Schilling knew that her wasn't going to be in a position to pitch in 2008 then his signing a new contract with the Sox was classless, if he honestly believed he could come back then he can be accused of an overinflated sense of optimism but not of being "a villain". Plus what Dempster did was not heroic, selfless yes, professional even but hardly heroic.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Feb 16, 2014 20:11:41 GMT -5
Compare and contrast Ryan Dempster finale with the Red Sox with that of Curt Schilling, then get back to us on the ethics issue.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Jan 3, 2014 9:42:19 GMT -5
Just a thought, but if Betts proves to be an able outfielder and his power is insufficient to profile as a right fielder the Sox could consider moving JBJ to right and putting Betts in center. Bradley looks to have teens to 20 hr power and has the arm to play right. Also Fenway is perhaps uniquely suited to having a center filed caliber outfielder in right (note the benefits of Shane Victorino there this year so that while JBJ likely won't have the power of Evans or Jensen he may provide that outstanding defense that Fenway's idiosyncratic right field needs. Plus right now there is no one in the system that looks to be ready to force their way into that spot.
Betts may not be able to man center either, but he has the athleticism to make it worth a shot and if he continues to hit like he did last year they are going to want to find a place for him. After all if center and right field can combine for 35+/- hrs a year with exceptional D, dies it matter how those longballs are divided?
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Dec 29, 2013 9:53:12 GMT -5
Regarding Bradley's jump, that wasn't developed in the minors, he had that ability in college. Callis specifically mentioned having his young son ask at a college world series how Bradley knew where to run before anybody else knew. That skill is one that can be developed if you have the proper mindset. When I was a kid I used to go to the local park where the older boys were playing ball. often it was just batting practice because they'd only be 5 or 6 guys there. I'd shag balls in the outfield for hours on end and they promised to let me bat. Every once and a while they even kept their word. What they didn't know is that I got off on running down fly balls and after a some time I was getting a jump on the ball as they were swinging because I'd seen their stance, their timing, how they surveyed the firld and where the ptich was headed. I bet if you watch Bradley you will see him start to shift his weight and move even an swings and misses as he can anticipate the general area where solid contact is likely to head. I was scouted for glove but at 5'7" and 130 pounds certainly didn't project as more than a singles hitter (had a good eye and speed but opb wasn't valued in the late 50's early 60's and my arm was mediocre so that was that). Point being that through a lot of repetition, attention to details and a love of p;laying defense you can learn to do what Bradley (and the late Paul Blair) does/did.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Dec 21, 2013 18:00:15 GMT -5
I don't believe you pay income tax in the states that don't have an income tax at all. 81+ games at home a season (+playoffs), 7 seasons that is pretty significant. I believe in NY it is a 9% income tax on the top bracket. So its not 13% but when you factor in cost of living and the fact NYC's sales tax is also higher, the difference between 7/140 in NY and 7/130 in Texas really may not be that much. I'm not sure how the incentives, benefits and bonuses work but that might also be part of it. So a few things about taxes and cost of living. First, state and local taxes are deductible from Federal taxes so that's a 40% reduction right there in CHoo's bracket. If we posit that a Yankee plays 60% games in NY including post season (so maybe only 50% going forward) that means that 9.0% becomes 5.4% which after the Federal deduction becomes 3.24% (if no playoffs then 2.7%). Same math for local taxes so net-net is 3 to 4 percent or $ 4.2 - %5.6 million on $140mm. As far as Cost of Living goes, NYC is certainly more than Arlington (mitigated by the fact that there are actually things to do in NYC) BUT someone making $20mm a year is spending relative peanuts on living expenses unless he's a total idiot. Even $150K extra a year amounts to barely a million over the life of this deal (and remember housing buy/sell likely results in a profit in the NYC area market. Bottom line is that the NYC "penalty" looks to be about $5 million, but you get to live in NY with all its pros and cons, if the 7/$140mm was real it was the richer deal from a financial standpoint.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Dec 4, 2013 14:15:36 GMT -5
I really don't get this. Everyone knew that the odds were long against Ellsbury coming back and every one knew, or should have known, that JBJ is the preferred option to replace him positionally. Victorino is a great right filed option for Fenway and moving him to center so Choo would be in right weakens the team defensively at 2 positions. JBJ in center actually strengthens the team defensively so IF Choo is coming it would only be to play left field. JBJ likely won't replace Ellsbury's offense (at least initially) but if the Sox want to do that Choo does the job while playing left. This may set off a chain of events involving players like Nana, Gomes and the like but it certainly seems that the centerfild job is Bradley's to lose.
Any "expert" or "analyst" who doesn't see this is neither.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Dec 3, 2013 22:06:34 GMT -5
On a side-note, I'm wondering how much extra his contract is worth if you consider the lack of income tax in Florida. Well the Mass state tax is a flat 5.3% but that doesn't tell the whole story because state taxes are deductible from federal taxes and in Salty's beacket that's worth about 2% so the next value of tax free Florida is about 3.3% or roughly $700,000 over the life of the (less actually since at least agency fees will be deductible as well). So not such a big deal.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Nov 21, 2013 15:50:52 GMT -5
While the comparison to the other pro leagues is interesting,there is one piece missing, the role/cost of the minor leagues. Football and basketball get their players from a college system which uses the athletes for their own purposes and charges nothing to the NBA or NFL for player development. The NHL does have a minor league system but it is much less extensive than baseball's and in all three sports the transition from minor leaguer or "amateur" to the top echelon is quicker than in baseball. I have no idea what the actual economics are for supporting the farm systems and I certainly don't want to defend the owners some of whom are simply being greedy, but when discussing the relative merits of the payouts to the players you can't just ignore the significant differences in development costs.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Oct 27, 2013 11:20:18 GMT -5
I'm not going to debate the rule, - especially with a bunch of lawyers - but I think judgment can be questioned. Salty has been, rightly, questioned for his lack of judgment on making the throw, but how about questioning the ump for his lack of judgment in not "swallowing the whistle" to use Chris' term? The play was certainly marginal and if it had happened in say the 5th inning not a big deal to call it. But this call Ended. The. Game! Had things been allowed to continue one of 3 things happens: 1.The runner is thrown out at home, 2.The throw is off line or the catcher fails to handle it, 3.The runner retreats safely to third where the next batter has a chance to drive him in. In all these cases the players get to determine the outcome of the game, only by making the call he did does the umpire himself determine the outcome of a world series game. Imagine if this had been the bottom of the ninth in game seven. So I'm not going to debate the rule here, it's clear that the call is at least defendable, but the ump has to be aware of the circumstances and anything short of arod's mugging of Arroyo needs to be let go in that situation.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Oct 25, 2013 13:27:49 GMT -5
I'm sure that's the plan, I was suggesting an alternative, but it would work to have Doubront start Game 5. Why wouldn't Lester start game 5 on regular rest? I mean, sure you don't love Peavy in game seven, but I'd rather have Peavy start a game than Doubront. This plan only works if the Sox win with Peavy on Saturday, then they have luxury of finishing up with Lester and Lackey (if needed) at Fenway. Doubront is a wild card and if his late season issues were conditioning related then the time off he's had may well have resolved them. Plus the Cards have problems with lefties so there is a chance for a big upside surprise.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Oct 25, 2013 13:13:01 GMT -5
I'm sure that's the plan, I was suggesting an alternative, but it would work to have Doubront start Game 5, however he then is matched up with Wainwright which (Game 1 aside) reduces the Sox chances. I think Clay on an extra day of rest (if dead arm is truly the issue and not a recurrence of his injury) stands a better chance. I know it won't happen, but it still seems to me like the best strategy.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Oct 25, 2013 12:34:32 GMT -5
Peavy is the key. If he can give the Sox 6 or more innings in game 3 and the Sox win it thent hey have the option of giving Buchholz an extra day off and starting Doubront in game 4 with Workman or Dempster to piggy back if things go wrong. Buchholz gets game 5 with extra rest and either Workman or Dempster to back him up after 5 innings. That way the Sox have a well rested Lester and Lackey for games 6 & 7 at Fenway if needed. If the Sox steal either game 4 or 5 then 2 shots with their 2 best pitchers. THey would have to face Wacha on regular rest but I think that is not as daunting now that they've seen him, plus Nava is (hopefully) in the lineup instead of Gomes. (As an aside what a difference it might have made if Nava comes up in Game 2 with a runner on 3rd and 2 out instead of Gomes who popped up).
This gives the Sox the best matchups pitching wise and so Saturday's game is the key for me.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Oct 18, 2013 12:32:38 GMT -5
I don't like "songs" and rarely repost others' work - but this is something worth sharing from the Globe online:
Mine eyes have seen the closer as he stands upon the mound, He is trampling out the posers as the strike zone he doth pound. The game is quickly over, there are high fives all around, His team goes marching on.
Koji, Koji Uehara, Koji, Koji Uehara, Koji, Koji Uehara,
His team goes marching on.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Aug 30, 2013 13:01:36 GMT -5
Eric, excellent point about reaction time being the deciding factor in determining effective FB velocity. It is the exact point made by some physicist about hundred years back when he realized that accelerated motion was the exact same thing as gravity - worked out pretty well.
The point I failed to make earlier and you have so well is that HO is an very unusual case who may well not have reached his physical peak and so adamantly capping his ceiling was premature. Hopefully his command will improve and he can add a serviceable 4th pitch, but if not would you take 9.55K per nine with 4.67BB? Because, although HO's career won't run as long, those numbers put Nolan Ryan in the HOF?
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Aug 28, 2013 22:30:37 GMT -5
Not feeling picked on and I also wasn't making the comp except to say that there are instances of exceptional pitchers without great FB. HO hasn't at this time the command of either of those and I'm not projecting him to have that but merely pointing out that there seems to be a bias in the discussion towards Owens needing to add velocity when there are cases where that is not called for and SO FAR this year he is demonstrating that he is a candidate for that category in age appropriate levels. As for the Greg Maddux velo myth, I haven't heard of it but only go the info from fangraphs www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=104&position=P which had data from 2002 on regarding velocity (maybe not available earlier) glad for edification if you would supply it.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Aug 28, 2013 21:48:13 GMT -5
I'm very new at looking at these stats and am probably all wet here and I am definitely NOT comparing HO to these players but all this concern about his relative lack of FB velocity made me curious so I looked up couple of very good pitcher and found that Roy Halladay seemed to sit at 92 in his peak years and has had a great career and Greg Maddux only threw in the mid 80s with his FB. Now I know that Maddux seemed to be able to hit a 5 inch spot almost every time and had about a dozen different routes and speeds to get there and more than once I've heard ex players say how that 0 for 4 against Halladay was the easiest one they ever had. So if HO is already at 89 - 92 it seems like he has enough heat and all that really matters is his continuing to improve his ability to locate and if more velo comes fine but it's not a necessity. If this is just an echo of njsox post, sorry, but I'm curious what some of you more experienced guys think.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Aug 24, 2013 8:52:56 GMT -5
First off, I love Dustin Pedroia. As a 5 foot 7 former center fielder with an all star glove, a minor league bat and a very Johnny Damonesque arm I am always rooting for the "midgets" and no one plays the game any better (in terms of heart, desire and truth) than Pedroia who is borderline HOF imo. But because of his style he is one slide into first (really needs to cut that out) or one take out while on the pivot away from a career altering or ending injury. He's also now 30 and those nagging injuries mount up and heal more slowly - note his power drain likely caused by his thumb injury.
With it likely that Jacoby Ellsbury is gone next year to be replaced by JBJ, the Sox gain some D and lose some speed. Now it's way early, but Betts appears to have the POTENTIAL to replace the speed and be the insurance to provide excellent up the middle D that Pedroia gives with maybe something approaching 85-90% of DP's offense. Betts is young and at least a couple of years away and it just seems to me the Sox would be very foolish to think about moving him for an outfielder or a pitcher (given the depth of pitching developing on the farm) unless you are talking in a package for a YOUNG and proven top of the line MLB player.
In my former life we had a saying that "you don't sell lottery tickets" and right now Mookie Betts is beginning to look like the kind of ticket you just might want to keep around.
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