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Red Sox trade Iglesias, Wendelken, Rondon & Montas for Peavy
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Post by sbones13 on Oct 29, 2013 9:40:38 GMT -5
This is what I'd do. I think it's a no-brainer to offer him, and I also think there's NO way he'll take that. He may not get megabucks, but TONS of teams need SS's, and he's a great option for them. Why would he stick around to platoon? At worst, I'd see Boras getting him another 1 year, make-good deal where he would at least be a team's sole SS. It's all good for the Sox, of course. Either they have GREAT depth, or get a nice pick. I think Eric is overrating Iglesias. I get the thinking that he'll improve, but personally I think he'll never be as good a hitter as he was this year. He was SO lucky the first half. this is a guy that has never hit anywhere, at any level. I get that he only needs to hit a little to be a league average SS, but I don't see it happening...
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Post by soxcentral on Oct 29, 2013 9:53:38 GMT -5
This is what I'd do. I think it's a no-brainer to offer him, and I also think there's NO way he'll take that. He may not get megabucks, but TONS of teams need SS's, and he's a great option for them. Why would he stick around to platoon? At worst, I'd see Boras getting him another 1 year, make-good deal where he would at least be a team's sole SS. It's all good for the Sox, of course. Either they have GREAT depth, or get a nice pick. I think Eric is overrating Iglesias. I get the thinking that he'll improve, but personally I think he'll never be as good a hitter as he was this year. He was SO lucky the first half. this is a guy that has never hit anywhere, at any level. I get that he only needs to hit a little to be a league average SS, but I don't see it happening... Extremely contradictory there. Drew has great value as a solid glove, lighter bat SS that many teams will seek to give him a starting role and/or a better contract, yet Iglesias is overrated because he is a solid glove, lighter bat SS. He had some very good AB's in the LCS, not sure what's left to convince you he's moved past some of his hitting problems in past years. I think Eric was dead on. We gave away more than we took in simply because we had a shot to win a pennant and didn't want a lack of depth in the rotation to derail it. We are one win away from making that gamble pay off, however we'll likely be dealing with the one-sidedness of this trade for years. As big a fan as I was of Jose, it will be worth it if we can finish this thing off even if Peavy only played a bit role.
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Post by sbones13 on Oct 29, 2013 10:02:00 GMT -5
Not contradictory at all. Drew isn't a "Lighter bat" at SS. He's a decent fielder that is a very good SS bat. Iglesias is a star fielder and a real bad bat at SS. I don't think he's "Moved past his hitting problems" at all. He got a bunch of grounders through the infield in the first half, then came crashing to earth in the 2nd half. Drew was a 3.1 WAR guy in 440 AB's.
Andrus is who Iglesias wishes he could be, but even he gains so much from his baserunning. Iglesias won't...
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Post by jmei on Oct 29, 2013 10:12:00 GMT -5
A few clarifications:
Drew is only a "lighter bat SS" if you only look at the playoffs. His 109 wRC+ during the regular season would have ranked 9th among shortstops with 300+ PAs, and his glove was better than anyone ahead of him except Troy Tulowitzki and Ian Desmond.
Jose Iglesias doesn't have to hit very much to be a league-average shortstop, given his elite defense at shortstop. He hit only .259/.306/.348 with Detroit but still put up 0.8 fWAR in 148 PAs with the Tigers. That comes to 3.24 fWAR per 600 PAs, which is well above-average and would have ranked 11th among shortstops in 2013. To put it in a less SABR way, the offensive bar at SS is set incredibly low. Shortstops as a whole only hit .254/.308/.367 in 2013-- if Iglesias can even come close to that, he'll be an above-average shortstop by virtue of his glove. (That said, Steamer projects Iglesias to hit .254/.298/.334 in 570 PAs next year and only rack up 0.9 fWAR, but I think that projection is underselling his defense.)
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Post by sbones13 on Oct 29, 2013 10:23:32 GMT -5
A few clarifications: Drew is only a "lighter bat SS" if you only look at the playoffs. His 109 wRC+ during the regular season would have ranked 9th among shortstops with 300+ PAs, and his glove was better than anyone ahead of him except Troy Tulowitzki and Ian Desmond. Jose Iglesias doesn't have to hit very much to be a league-average shortstop, given his elite defense at shortstop. He hit only .259/.306/.348 with Detroit but still put up 0.8 fWAR in 148 PAs with the Tigers. That comes to 3.24 fWAR per 600 PAs, which is well above-average and would have ranked 11th among shortstops in 2013. To put it in a less SABR way, the offensive bar at SS is set incredibly low. Shortstops as a whole only hit .254/.308/.367 in 2013-- if Iglesias can even come close to that, he'll be an above-average shortstop by virtue of his glove. (That said, Steamer projects Iglesias to hit .254/.298/.334 in 570 PAs next year and only rack up 0.9 fWAR, but I think that projection is underselling his defense.) I pretty much agree with all of this. I could see him being league average. I wouldn't bet on it, but I could see it. ALL of his value will come from his D and batting average. He won't walk and has no power or elite baserunning ability. I'm just not willing to throw out his whole minor league career because he got a few extra infield hits the first half of the year. All that said, sure, in hindsight I wish they got a little more for him. I was glad they traded him for two reasons. 1. We were in it and Doubront and Dempster were falling apart. And 2. (Most important to me) I want to see if Bogaerts can handle SS. I don't want to get caught in a Baltimore situation where we have a potential superstar SS that can "Handle" 3B, so they leave him there for a league average SS. I want to see if we have a Nomar or Tulo or Ripken before we shift him to third and he's the 3rd or 4th best 3B behind Longoria, Beltre, Donaldson, etc. (Maybe he's better than all of them. I don't know. But if he is and he can handle SS, he's a hall of famer...)
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Oct 29, 2013 10:56:40 GMT -5
A few clarifications: Drew is only a "lighter bat SS" if you only look at the playoffs. His 109 wRC+ during the regular season would have ranked 9th among shortstops with 300+ PAs, and his glove was better than anyone ahead of him except Troy Tulowitzki and Ian Desmond. Jose Iglesias doesn't have to hit very much to be a league-average shortstop, given his elite defense at shortstop. He hit only .259/.306/.348 with Detroit but still put up 0.8 fWAR in 148 PAs with the Tigers. That comes to 3.24 fWAR per 600 PAs, which is well above-average and would have ranked 11th among shortstops in 2013. To put it in a less SABR way, the offensive bar at SS is set incredibly low. Shortstops as a whole only hit .254/.308/.367 in 2013-- if Iglesias can even come close to that, he'll be an above-average shortstop by virtue of his glove. (That said, Steamer projects Iglesias to hit .254/.298/.334 in 570 PAs next year and only rack up 0.9 fWAR, but I think that projection is underselling his defense.) I pretty much agree with all of this. I could see him being league average. I wouldn't bet on it, but I could see it. ALL of his value will come from his D and batting average. He won't walk and has no power or elite baserunning ability. I'm just not willing to throw out his whole minor league career because he got a few extra infield hits the first half of the year. All that said, sure, in hindsight I wish they got a little more for him. I was glad they traded him for two reasons. 1. We were in it and Doubront and Dempster were falling apart. And 2. (Most important to me) I want to see if Bogaerts can handle SS. I don't want to get caught in a Baltimore situation where we have a potential superstar SS that can "Handle" 3B, so they leave him there for a league average SS. I want to see if we have a Nomar or Tulo or Ripken before we shift him to third and he's the 3rd or 4th best 3B behind Longoria, Beltre, Donaldson, etc. (Maybe he's better than all of them. I don't know. But if he is and he can handle SS, he's a hall of famer...) Hopefully soon here in the next few seasons we have Bogaerts at SS and either Middlebrooks or Cecchini developed and at 3rd.
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Post by sbones13 on Oct 29, 2013 11:42:53 GMT -5
Exactly, that's the dream scenario. No doubt. Even if Middlebrooks develops into a decent mistake hitter who has trouble against real good pitching he still has value. Kind of like Salty. You need those guys for the long regular season, even if they fade some in the playoffs as they get exposed.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Oct 29, 2013 14:16:25 GMT -5
I doubt the Red Sox believe in Xander as a SS. If WMB could hit, at all, I doubt we'd have seen the Xman this October. If you can explain to me why (Red Sox Director of Information Services) Tom Tippett would lie to me about that, while also giving me inside information about the rationale behind the Peavy trade (as a courtesy to a former colleague whose angry online rant about the trade was, he told me good-naturedly, noticed and tweeted about among the FO), then maybe you have a case. Repeat: according to the guy who is second after Bill James among the Red Sox sabermetric guys, the Red Sox believe so thoroughly in Xander at SS that they felt they could deal Iglesias in a trade, even though they hated to give him up, and they knew he was outstanding, plenty good enough to be our long-term starting SS. It seems to me that the error you're making starts with the notion that in trading Iglesias for Peavy we were "selling high" on a fringy player, and hence making a roughly equal value-for-value trade. Hence you call the trade a wash. But you can't evaluate the trade based just on this year, when we have one more year of Peavy and the Tigers have five more of Iglesias, during which he can be expected to improve his hitting. Five years from now, it's likely to look like an insanely bad trade, at least on paper. Now, it follows that if the Sox really thought Iglesias was going to be a good starting SS, then they knew they were overpaying hugely for Peavy, on paper. And this is true. It's important to understand that they consciously gave away much more than they thought they were getting. And that's because consciously giving too much up, on paper, is a luxury that teams with crazy depth can afford. The big previous example was trading four years of Jed Lowrie, another good MLB SS that they couldn't find a place for, and a decent pitching prospect, for three years of a setup reliever. Good starting SSs are way more valuable than even the best setup reliever, so on paper, by definition, that's a bad trade provided Lowrie doesn't crash and burn. And indeed, even if Melancon repeats his fabulous year with the Pirates, he'll have ended up being worth 3.5 WAR after the trade, and Jed Lowrie has already been worth 4.5 WAR over two years and has two years of control left. But if you have no place for Jed Lowrie's projected 9.0 of WAR and badly need 5.0 WAR of relief pitching (which is what Melancon might have been worth if he were as good as they thought), then that's a good trade. If you have no place for Jose Iglesias's (say) 15 future WAR but have a big, honking need for nearly 1 WAR of starting pitching to win a pennant (plus another 2-3 the year after), you can even make that trade. I told Tom that I had wanted Iglesias at SS and Bogaerts at 3B and probably Cecchini at 1B, because defense wins you championships. I expected him to tell me that there had been a big debate about that versus trading Iglesias and keeping Xander at SS, but he didn't. He acknowledged that my way of doing it was an option, and then told me how strongly the FO now felt that Xander can play SS. (He also surprised me by saying "don't forget about Middlebrooks" and reiterating that the FO still thought he would bounce back -- this was in early August when WMB was still struggling at Pawtucket). So, to reiterate: according to Tom, the Sox believed that Iglesias was a quality future option at SS, but they felt that Xander Bogaerts was their future SS. And that (and only that) made Iglesias expendable, and because they felt they needed to get the best available SP to guarantee an otherwise iffy pennant, they traded him. Now, after seeing X play SS myself, I no longer prefer my lineup with X at 3B; I completely agree with keeping him at SS. I think he'll be a solid defender there for quite a while, and eventually (as soon as a year from now, even) make nearly all the plays Drew is making now. My complaint is no longer that they should have kept Iglesias to play SS, it's simply that they gave him away, and to a rival elite team no less, for not just essentially nothing, but a relatively expensive nothing. Imagine if we still had Iglesias as a trading chip to get a studly corner OF bat. My sense is that they are still high enough on WMB to give him at least four more months. The likeliest outcome, based on his track record, is that he plays well enough to establish some decent trade value, and is dealt to make room for Cecchini either next winter or at the deadline. It's possible he has another bad year and they have to sell low on him, and it's also possible that he has another great year and creates the proverbial "problem you like to have." But they can afford to give him another shot at being a regular. Well, I don't have "insider information" so I can only base an opinion around what I've seen and what I've read. Everything I have read about the X-man is, "Bogaerts has come up through the system as a shortstop. He has plus arm strength and can make all the throws from deep in the hole, but given his size (especially in the future) and limited range, it is likely he moves to third base, as Rosenbaum points out: Will continue to develop as a shortstop unless he’s forced to move from position; also profiles as a third baseman or corner outfielder. Solid hands; plus arm strength; lacks quick feet and explosiveness for surefire up-the-middle future." bleacherreport.com/articles/1742827-why-xander-bogaerts-is-hyped-as-the-next-great-boston-red-sox-star"Solid-average range, but may lose footspeed as he gets bigger. Needs to slow the game down defensively and resist the feeling to rush plays. Inconsistent with footwork and staying down on the ball. Choppy at times with his movements and reactions. Improvements in the field and physical development should allow Bogaerts to stick at shortstop for the outset of his big league career. If he needs to move off the position, has the tools to play either third base or left field." Soxprospects.com "Two areas of Bogaerts’ game that still need work are his defense and strike zone judgment. As a shortstop, he’s made strides in improving his footwork and technique, and the reads off the bat have gotten better as well. The foot speed is only average, however, and further loss of speed into his mid-20s is going to decrease his average-to-slightly-better-than-average range. Given his athleticism, reactions, and instincts, a permanent move over to third base should agree well with Bogaerts, and he has potential to round into a plus defender at the hot corner." www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=21559He has a chance to stick, but he's not a + defender at the position by any stretch which means the Sox will probably move him off the position, especially if he continues to grow. Let's also look to how Farrell utilized X-Man this year as well. If I recall correctly, (please feel free to call me out on this if I'm misremembering) most of Xander's starts at SS this year did not come against left-handed pitching, but rather, when Jake Peavy, a fly ball pitcher, was on the mound. The Red Sox have Stephen Drew and Xander as a backup to the position which is what made Iggy expendable. What makes you think Iglesias is going to get any better with the bat as he gets older? At what level, outside of a fluky few months in the MLB, gives any indication that he'll have any positive impact with the bat? If the Sox hated the trade so much and thought Iglesias had THAT much value, why even make the move for Peavy? Every team knew Peavy was nothing more than a number 3 and how much of a defensive wizard Iglesias is on the field. The only reason why the Tigers gave up what they did was because of the Peralta situation and also decided that since they didn't know what the situation of one of the best hitting SS was going to be come October, that they were going to get the white-hot Iglesias whose already considered one of, if not, the best defensive SS in baseball. Jed Lowrie is also limited in range at SS and couldn't play a full season, if that. At least, I remember hearing those rumblings about how he was a future 2B. Still, here's the amount of games Jed Lowrie has played each and every year. Games played for Lowrie: 2008: 81 2009: 32 2010: 55 2011: 88 2012: 97 2013: 154
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 31, 2013 11:24:50 GMT -5
Well, I don't have "insider information" so I can only base an opinion around what I've seen and what I've read. "Two areas of Bogaerts’ game that still need work are his defense and strike zone judgment. As a shortstop, he’s made strides in improving his footwork and technique, and the reads off the bat have gotten better as well. The foot speed is only average, however, and further loss of speed into his mid-20s is going to decrease his average-to-slightly-better-than-average range. www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=21559All of the scouting reports you quoted are a year old. They've passed on. They're no more. They've ceased to be. They've expired and gone to meet their maker. They've shuffled off this mortal coil, run down the curtain and joined the bleedin' choir invisible. No one watching Bogaerts this year in MLB can think his foot speed is only average, for instance. I think the Sox believe that his raw range may indeed end up just average, but he can be expected to be a guy who excels at positioning. In the meantime, his strike-zone judgment went, in one year, from "needs work" to 70 on the 20-80 scale.
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Post by jmei on Oct 31, 2013 11:30:00 GMT -5
In the meantime, his strike-zone judgment went, in one year, from "needs work" to 70 on the 20-80 scale. Eh, a 70 is a little aggressive-- I'd call it an easy 60. His walk and strikeout rates in the minors and majors were both very good but not great. He took some very close pitches in the playoffs that were probably too close to take, for instance. His plate discipline is excellent but he's not at a Votto or Youkilis level yet. I agree with your broader point, though-- I've never seen a prospect improve their plate discipline so much in one season.
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Post by alan on Sept 7, 2021 6:56:25 GMT -5
Jose Iglesias is back, so I wanted to revisit this trade. I'm surprised by how many quality Major Leaguers this trade had. Iglesias, Peavy, JB Wendelken and Avisail Garcia are (or were) all solid players. Frankie Montas could be an ace if he stays healthy though, so that hurt a little
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 7, 2021 8:52:41 GMT -5
Jose Iglesias is back, so I wanted to revisit this trade. I'm surprised by how many quality Major Leaguers this trade had. Iglesias, Peavy, JB Wendelken and Avisail Garcia are (or were) all solid players. Frankie Montas could be an ace if he stays healthy though, so that hurt a little I had the exact same reaction looking back at it myself yesterday. I'll always remember it because it happened on the eve of the bar exam. Distinctly remember cramming in my hotel room in the seaport only to get distracted for a couple hours by my binky getting dealt. That said, making a trade in 2013, if you said that Montas will become a very good major leaguer... in six years, I'd take it. That 2013 banner is flying forever (and holds a special place for a lot of people). Edit1: I'm a shade surprised Cleuluis Rondon never (really) made it past AA. He could pick it and was partially dealt to clear out a glut of low-minors (SS-A/Low-A) middle infielders they had at the time. In Lowell they had Tzu-Wei Lin, Carlos Asuaje, and Rondon (who was probably interesting in more of a Karson Simas kind of way than a Eddinson Paulino way, to compare to 2021 guys), and Greenville they had Jose Vinicio at short and Reed Gragnani at second base. Mookie Betts had been promoted to Salem in the weeks prior (forming a double play combo with Deven Marrero that was a joy to watch). For those interested in stepping into the time machine: web.archive.org/web/20130722062510/https://soxprospects.com/org.htm (Not a bad lower farm at that point, by the way. I think I count 8 MLBers on each of the Drive and Spinners rosters, including Greenville DL?) Edit2: Wow, there are at least 7 MLBers at each of the non-complex affiliates.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 7, 2021 8:55:25 GMT -5
Jose Iglesias is back, so I wanted to revisit this trade. I'm surprised by how many quality Major Leaguers this trade had. Iglesias, Peavy, JB Wendelken and Avisail Garcia are (or were) all solid players. Frankie Montas could be an ace if he stays healthy though, so that hurt a little I had the exact same reaction looking back at it myself yesterday. I'll always remember it because it happened on the eve of the bar exam. Distinctly remember cramming in my hotel room in the seaport only to get distracted for a couple hours by my binky getting dealt. That said, making a trade in 2013, if you said that Montas will become a very good major leaguer... in six years, I'd take it. That 2013 banner is flying forever (and holds a special place for a lot of people). JFC. First we have to relive the Mookie Betts deal over and over again and now we're forced to relive the Jose Iglesias deal again. UGHHHHHH!
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Post by vokuhila on Sept 7, 2021 12:14:13 GMT -5
I have tried to put your pain in numbers: DET side of the trade: FA after that CHW side of the trade: Garcia had one insane season, the rest was meh Montas with 2 20M$+ seasons, rest was meh aswell RS side of the trade: I know it's ugly as sin, sorry... The "surplus" is the relevant data for each player...yeah...that's painful... If you want to look for a bit of upside: -Peavy got traded for Hembree + X -Hembree + Y got us Pivetta and Seabold So..."logically" Peavy got us Pivetta + Seabold
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