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Masahiro Tanaka (1/22 update: to NYY for 7/$155m)
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Post by grandsalami on Jan 22, 2014 10:23:08 GMT -5
will take a lot for him to live up to this contract...
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Post by grandsalami on Jan 22, 2014 10:26:30 GMT -5
Bruce Arthur ?@bruce_arthur 20s Also, per @joelsherman1, the Yankees didn't give Tanaka a physical themselves, and trusted the agent's physical. Sounds foolproof.
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Post by amfox1 on Jan 22, 2014 10:29:33 GMT -5
Tweet of the morning:
Steve Berthiaume ?@bertdbacks 9m #Yankees have spent half a BILLION dollars this winter & still have Kelly Johnson likely starting at 3B & Brian Roberts at 2B.
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Post by jmei on Jan 22, 2014 10:29:57 GMT -5
I think it's more like a top 5 pitcher but it depends upon how you define the value of WAR I guess. Haven't done the calculations but that would seem low to me. If 1 WAR is worth $6M now - add in 5% to 7% annual inflation - he will need to be worth about 3.5 WAR per year on average to be worth $175M. There were 28 pitchers last year that had an fWAR of over 3.5. The real difficulty is averaging 3.5 wins per year over seven years, especially as he enters his 30s. Over the past seven years, only 14 pitchers have totaled 25+ fWAR, and it's a short list of aces and nears-aces (Verlander, Sabathia, Lee, Hernandez, Halladay, Greinke, Haren, Hamels, Kershaw, lester, Lincecum, Weaver, Wainwright, Shields). ADD: in the interest of more accurate analysis, here are the five pitchers closest to 25 fWAR: Adam Wainwright (26.9) James Shields (26.3) Matt Cain (24.4) Josh Beckett (24.1) Ubaldo Jimenez (23.6) So Tanaka doesn't have to pitch like a true ace to justify this contract, and he can even have a down year or two (whether due to injury or ineffectiveness) if he's otherwise pitching really well. But there's not much chance of any surplus value, and plenty of downside if he doesn't pitch like a consistent number two starter.
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Post by elguapo on Jan 22, 2014 10:30:17 GMT -5
That's a good bit of cash. The out after 4 is big as well, limits the potential upside value.
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Post by soxcentral on Jan 22, 2014 10:30:43 GMT -5
Good for the Yankees, got a big name to satisfy the fan base. I'm not exactly terrified of them at this point, even with Tanaka its still more of a break even off-season for them:
Cano/Granderson > Ellsbury/Beltran
Petitte < Tanaka (maybe)
Rivera > Matt Thornton
ARod > Drew (assuming they sign him)
And they weren't exactly a powerhouse before all these moves.
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Post by amfox1 on Jan 22, 2014 10:30:44 GMT -5
Bruce Arthur ?@bruce_arthur 20s Also, per @joelsherman1, the Yankees didn't give Tanaka a physical themselves, and trusted the agent's physical. Sounds foolproof. The physician who gave the physical is Kuroda's doctor, with whom they have had extensive dealings. Not an issue.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jan 22, 2014 10:32:35 GMT -5
The thing is, the Yankees can afford to pay more than $6M per WAR, especially since they're over the cap now. You could even argue they must pay more than that. Last year and the A Rod scandal did a lot to damage the Yankee brand, they're going to have to spend big time to get fans back in the seats and fill their coffers again. The team will still be very profitable if they're good.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Jan 22, 2014 10:33:12 GMT -5
Looks like pedroelgrande got the team right and of the people who said it would be the Yanks got the closest on the bid. You get the Nostrodamus award for today!
Yeah!
Honorable mention to taftreign who actually almost nailed the Yanks bid amount!
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Post by h11233 on Jan 22, 2014 10:35:59 GMT -5
That's a good bit of cash. The out after 4 is big as well, limits the potential upside value. Would you say the same about the Kershaw deal? Everyone seemed to think the out was great for both sides... why is it different with Tanaka? I haven't seen the details of the deal, but to me your comment only makes sense if it's loaded on the front end.
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Post by JackieWilsonsaid on Jan 22, 2014 10:37:14 GMT -5
The out is Tanakas, not the yankees
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Post by h11233 on Jan 22, 2014 10:39:46 GMT -5
The out is Tanakas, not the yankees Got it. Then I would agree. Moving on!
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Post by jmei on Jan 22, 2014 10:40:06 GMT -5
The thing is, the Yankees can afford to pay more than $6M per WAR, especially since they're over the cap now. You could even argue they must pay more than that. Last year and the A Rod scandal did a lot to damage the Yankee brand, they're going to have to spend big time to get fans back in the seats and fill their coffers again. The team will still be very profitable if they're good. To me, it's not a question of profitability but of opportunity cost. Remember, with the posting fee factored in, Tanaka costs $25m a year. Robinson Cano only got a $24m AAV (albeit over 10 years); wouldn't he have been a much better (and less risky) use of that money?
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Post by chavopepe2 on Jan 22, 2014 10:40:20 GMT -5
That's a good bit of cash. The out after 4 is big as well, limits the potential upside value. Would you say the same about the Kershaw deal? Everyone seemed to think the out was great for both sides... why is it different with Tanaka? I haven't seen the details of the deal, but to me your comment only makes sense if it's loaded on the front end. Simple: If Tanaka busts - its a 7 year deal. If he is a stud - its a 4 year deal. The Yankees would want the opposite.
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Post by jmei on Jan 22, 2014 10:42:20 GMT -5
Also, if Tanaka opts out, the Yankees have fewer years to spread out the posting cost.
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Post by bigpupp on Jan 22, 2014 10:42:29 GMT -5
So if you account for the 50% luxury tax hit, the total contract turns out to be over $250 million....
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Post by chavopepe2 on Jan 22, 2014 10:43:29 GMT -5
Also, if Tanaka opts out, the Yankees have fewer years to spread out the posting cost. Good point. That would make the expenditure about $27M per year instead of $25M per year.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Jan 22, 2014 10:43:47 GMT -5
I think it's more like a top 5 pitcher but it depends upon how you define the value of WAR I guess. Haven't done the calculations but that would seem low to me. If 1 WAR is worth $6M now - add in 5% to 7% annual inflation - he will need to be worth about 3.5 WAR per year on average to be worth $175M. There were 28 pitchers last year that had an fWAR of over 3.5. Then it is essentially over $7 mil per WAR. Every player's WAR value escalates though so they all are subject to inflation. I stand corrected! Indications were that WAR values were already approaching $7 mil per WAR as of this winter. Some of these contracts are amazing. Consider that Tanaka even got a opt out option in 4 years. WOW! The guy thinks he might be able to opt out and get a bigger deal! And considering the revenue projections of these regional TV deals, I think he might be right! I think this guy is legit.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Jan 22, 2014 10:46:04 GMT -5
So if you account for the 50% luxury tax hit, the total contract turns out to be over $250 million.... Amazing point. The Yanks are like crying little babies screaming "I want it, I want it, I want it..."
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Post by Guidas on Jan 22, 2014 10:49:29 GMT -5
If 1 WAR is worth $6M now - add in 5% to 7% annual inflation - he will need to be worth about 3.5 WAR per year on average to be worth $175M. There were 28 pitchers last year that had an fWAR of over 3.5. The real difficulty is averaging 3.5 wins per year over seven years, especially as he enters his 30s. Over the past seven years, only 14 pitchers have totaled 25+ fWAR, and it's a short list of aces and nears-aces (Verlander, Sabathia, Lee, Hernandez, Halladay, Greinke, Haren, Hamels, Kershaw, lester, Lincecum, Weaver, Wainwright, Shields). ADD: in the interest of more accurate analysis, here are the five pitchers closest to 25 fWAR: Adam Wainwright (26.9) James Shields (26.3) Matt Cain (24.4) Josh Beckett (24.1) Ubaldo Jimenez (23.6) So Tanaka doesn't have to pitch like a true ace to justify this contract, and he can even have a down year or two (whether due to injury or ineffectiveness) if he's otherwise pitching really well. But there's not much chance of any surplus value, and plenty of downside if he doesn't pitch like a consistent number two starter. I get this, but no one watches baseball for "surplus value," and there's nothing wrong with getting exactly what you paid for. Of course, now that we'll be seeing him 5-6 times a year I hope he's a #4 at best. With a bad limp.
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Post by sierram363 on Jan 22, 2014 10:59:17 GMT -5
The real difficulty is averaging 3.5 wins per year over seven years, especially as he enters his 30s. Over the past seven years, only 14 pitchers have totaled 25+ fWAR, and it's a short list of aces and nears-aces (Verlander, Sabathia, Lee, Hernandez, Halladay, Greinke, Haren, Hamels, Kershaw, lester, Lincecum, Weaver, Wainwright, Shields). ADD: in the interest of more accurate analysis, here are the five pitchers closest to 25 fWAR: Adam Wainwright (26.9) James Shields (26.3) Matt Cain (24.4) Josh Beckett (24.1) Ubaldo Jimenez (23.6) So Tanaka doesn't have to pitch like a true ace to justify this contract, and he can even have a down year or two (whether due to injury or ineffectiveness) if he's otherwise pitching really well. But there's not much chance of any surplus value, and plenty of downside if he doesn't pitch like a consistent number two starter. I get this, but no one watches baseball for "surplus value," and there's nothing wrong with getting exactly what you paid for. Of course, now that we'll be seeing him 5-6 times a year I hope he's a #4 at best. With a bad limp. I'd settle for the Yankees not winning a World Series during the life of his contract.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 22, 2014 11:05:18 GMT -5
Tweet of the morning: Steve Berthiaume ?@bertdbacks 9m #Yankees have spent half a BILLION dollars this winter & still have Kelly Johnson likely starting at 3B & Brian Roberts at 2B. Seriously, for everyone going all "THAH YANKEEZ ER BAK EHRMAGERDDDDDD" because they signed Tanaka, read this and re-read this. I'm still not sure they're a playoff team. In fact, I'd bet against it. With lots of money. And I'm like, really heavily in debt.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Jan 22, 2014 11:19:16 GMT -5
The Yanks are probably not through signing players. I'd bet they will soon be in playoff contention, even this year. I don't think Drew signs with the Mets. I think he signs with the Yanks. But the most important point I've been trying to stress over the past year is that top pitching is more important now. In the era of increased revenue sharing and much more parity between teams, more playoff spots etc...access to top starting pitching enables any team to contend if they can get in the playoffs. Top pitching has always been the key to winning the playoffs but it is even more important now.
That's why the overpay on this deal by the Yanks. They needed Tanaka badly and they are completely obsessed with winning. Not winning puts them in a suicidal state. They can't function without winning. They have bills to pay and they want to sell those $25,000 season tickets. Which they will do if they win.
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Post by sierram363 on Jan 22, 2014 11:32:56 GMT -5
The Yanks are probably not through signing players. I'd bet they will soon be in playoff contention, even this year. I don't think Drew signs with the Mets. I think he signs with the Yanks. But the most important point I've been trying to stress over the past year is that top pitching is more important now. In the era of increased revenue sharing and much more parity between teams, more playoff spots etc...access to top starting pitching enables any team to contend if they can get in the playoffs. Top pitching has always been the key to winning the playoffs but it is even more important now. That's why the overpay on this deal by the Yanks. They needed Tanaka badly and they are completely obsessed with winning. Not winning puts them in a suicidal state. They can't function without winning. They have bills to pay and they want to sell those $25,000 season tickets. Which they will do if they win. I love me that compensatory pick. Hope the Yanks bite on Drew.
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Post by okin15 on Jan 22, 2014 11:45:42 GMT -5
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