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Masahiro Tanaka (1/22 update: to NYY for 7/$155m)
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Post by JackieWilsonsaid on Jan 22, 2014 11:50:25 GMT -5
How about relevant enough at the break to make bad short term deals but then out by Sept 1st?
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Post by taftreign on Jan 22, 2014 12:08:57 GMT -5
In reading Jonah Keri's Tanaka reaction piece he mentions a few interesting tidbits. First, he believes this move now makes it a three team race for the division between Boston, Tampa and NYY. Interesting to see what the win projection systems look like with Tanaka joining the Yanks. Secondly, he also believes Arizona will now likely make a trade package for Price and include Archie Bradley in the deal. He calls it an "informed hunch." That would be yet another crazy return for Tampa after getting Myers for Shields. Why trade 6 or 7 years of the best pitching prospect in the minors who is all but MLB ready for a few years of a much more expensive pitcher even considering the upcoming TV deal. Bradley could be pitching for Arizona by August if the team wants to be aggressive or easily by April 2015 and the deal would likely end up including other prospects knowing how these things work out. Edit: Then again why should I expect Arizona to be logical given previous dealings this winter? grantland.com/features/well-they-couldnt-all-have-him/
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Post by brianthetaoist on Jan 22, 2014 12:18:23 GMT -5
Tweet of the morning: Steve Berthiaume ?@bertdbacks 9m #Yankees have spent half a BILLION dollars this winter & still have Kelly Johnson likely starting at 3B & Brian Roberts at 2B. Seriously, for everyone going all "THAH YANKEEZ ER BAK EHRMAGERDDDDDD" because they signed Tanaka, read this and re-read this. I'm still not sure they're a playoff team. In fact, I'd bet against it. With lots of money. And I'm like, really heavily in debt. I'd only add "and Derek Jeter at SS." Seriously, this is still not a very good team. This takes them out of the realm of "bad" I think, but their pitching is still thin, their position lineup has major holes, and they really don't have any real superstars. They're "top heavy" only in the sense of not having any depth, but I wouldn't put any of their players in the top echelon of players in the game. Maybe they get incredibly lucky and Jeter and Teixeira have "turn back the clock" years, CC does the same, and Tanaka is Y2, Electric Boogaloo, but I'm betting with Chris on this one. If they get a good amount of luck, they're a fringe playoff team in my mind. I think their most likely outcome is out of the playoffs with a mediocre 83-86 win season. If projection systems are much higher than that, I'd need some convincing ... edit to add: I'm maybe too harsh on McCann, thinking about it; it's possible he hits very well at Yankee Stadium and registers as an elite player. If you squint really hard, you can make the same case for Ellsbury, that he'll have a 2011 season again. But, whew, that's a lot of wishcasting ...
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Post by jmei on Jan 22, 2014 12:32:44 GMT -5
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Jan 22, 2014 12:39:35 GMT -5
I think McCann and Ellsbury are 2 of the best players in baseball at their position. Especially in Yankee stadium. I don't have to squint at all to call them elite players. But the thing with the Yankees is that we know they are probably not done spending. They may well sign another starter, and Drew and more relievers. Robertson should be an excellent closer. We underestimate them at our peril.
Baltimore may still have to wait a while to get top pitching. Tampa bay may not have Price and they are always susceptible to depth issues. Forget about Toronto. The MFY are still our competition in the division.
I think they would be better off with Drew at SS but we all know how that will go. No doubt the Yanks have weaknesses but Soriano could still put up good numbers for them as well as Texiera. A lineup which includes Ellsbury, Beltran, Texiera, Soriano, McCann etc... is pretty decent and their pitching could be just as strong as ours with a little luck and health. Sabathia has lost a lot of weight. Maybe he is healthy again.
They find a way to make the playoffs almost every year. The data on that is pretty extensive.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Jan 22, 2014 12:41:26 GMT -5
DH and 2nd are two of the easiest positions to fill in baseball and I hear Chase Headley wants to be a Yankee.
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Post by amfox1 on Jan 22, 2014 12:41:47 GMT -5
So if you account for the 50% luxury tax hit, the total contract turns out to be over $250 million.... For those who may have been wondering if the Hanks can get under the 2015 luxury tax threshold ... it's highly unlikely. Rotation (51.54 AAV + 2 FA) - Sabathia (24.40 AAV), Tanaka (22.14 AAV), Nova (arb2, assume 5.00 AAV), FA (Kuroda), FA (5th SP) Bullpen (8.00 AAV + 2 FA) - FA (Robertson), FA (setup), Phelps (min, 0.50 AAV), Thornton (3.50 AAV), Kelley (arb3, assume 3.00 AAV), Warren (min, 0.50 AAV), Claiborne (min, 0.50 AAV) Lineup (103.86 AAV + 4 FA) – Ellsbury (21.86 AAV), Beltran (15.00 AAV), Teixeira (22.50 AAV), Rodriguez (27.50 AAV), McCann (17.00 AAV), FA (Soriano), FA (Gardner), FA (Jeter), FA (Roberts) Bench (4.00 AAV + 2 FA) - Cervelli (arb2, assume 2.00 AAV), Ryan (2.00 AAV), FA, FA Total AAV is 167.40, plus 17.00 AAV in benefits/40 man roster. That puts the Yankees less than $5mm under the 2014 threshold with only 15 spots filled.
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Post by jmei on Jan 22, 2014 12:46:59 GMT -5
Tampa bay may not have Price and they are always susceptible to depth issues. Sorry, I have to nit-pick this. Andrew Friedman is one of the most depth-conscious GMs in the league; depth is the least of Tampa Bay's problems. Other than maybe 1B and CF, they have a lot of good depth (Molina, Lobaton, S. Rodriguez, Haku-Ju Lee, Matt Joyce, etc.), especially since Zobrist can backup so many positions.
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Post by jchang on Jan 22, 2014 12:49:02 GMT -5
Is WAR a good metric for evaluating pitchers from the team's point of view? What would be the difference between 2 starting pitchers, playing 30 games each, one averaging 7 IP/gm and the other 6 IP/gm, both the same ERA? Suppose this were 1 WAR for a cost increment of $6M. Then I might take the cheaper starter, relying on a good bullpen to cover the 1 IP/gm delta, spending the money elsewhere. For the us, it looks like we could have a strong pen this coming year (of course this is a difficult thing to project)
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Post by brianthetaoist on Jan 22, 2014 12:58:37 GMT -5
Rotation (51.54 AAV + 2 FA) - Sabathia (24.40 AAV), Tanaka (22.14 AAV), Nova (arb2, assume 5.00 AAV), FA (Kuroda), FA (5th SP) Bullpen (8.00 AAV + 2 FA) - FA (Robertson), FA (setup), Phelps (min, 0.50 AAV), Thornton (3.50 AAV), Kelley (arb3, assume 3.00 AAV), Warren (min, 0.50 AAV), Claiborne (min, 0.50 AAV) Lineup (103.86 AAV + 4 FA) – Ellsbury (21.86 AAV), Beltran (15.00 AAV), Teixeira (22.50 AAV), Rodriguez (27.50 AAV), McCann (17.00 AAV), FA (Soriano), FA (Gardner), FA (Jeter), FA (Roberts) Bench (4.00 AAV + 2 FA) - Cervelli (arb2, assume 2.00 AAV), Ryan (2.00 AAV), FA, FA Total AAV is 167.40, plus 17.00 AAV in benefits/40 man roster. That puts the Yankees less than $5mm under the 2014 threshold with only 15 spots filled. LOL. Is there any evidence at all that Brian Cashman's a good GM?
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Jan 22, 2014 13:10:08 GMT -5
Tampa bay may not have Price and they are always susceptible to depth issues. Sorry, I have to nit-pick this. Andrew Friedman is one of the most depth-conscious GMs in the league; depth is the least of Tampa Bay's problems. Other than maybe 1B and CF, they have a lot of good depth (Molina, Lobaton, S. Rodriguez, Haku-Ju Lee, Matt Joyce, etc.), especially since Zobrist can backup so many positions. They don't have the money to have a lot of depth. If they lose one of their stars they are dead in the water. Price, Longoria ...etc. They do have a lot of supplementary guys but they are extremely susceptible to a downward plunge if one or more of their stars are out. More than most teams. Edit: I'll grant that Tampa Bay and NYY are both in the running for a playoff spot. If their pitching stays healthy they have a shot for sure.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Jan 22, 2014 13:11:18 GMT -5
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Post by elguapo on Jan 22, 2014 13:12:52 GMT -5
I think the Yanks made a good move here. It's the cheapest they're going to get a potential ace pitcher anywhere. Also, dunno how to discount this, but the posting fee sorta doesn't count... Potential is the key word here. If Tanaka is an actual ace, that's one thing, but if he's a potential ace and a potention #3 and a potential back-of-the-rotation starter, with varying probabilities, that's another. The posting fee is inconsequential for the Yankees. I think it does again bring into question the Cano strategy - they played hardball and lost - lost the player anyway.
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Post by Guidas on Jan 22, 2014 13:14:56 GMT -5
Rotation (51.54 AAV + 2 FA) - Sabathia (24.40 AAV), Tanaka (22.14 AAV), Nova (arb2, assume 5.00 AAV), FA (Kuroda), FA (5th SP) Bullpen (8.00 AAV + 2 FA) - FA (Robertson), FA (setup), Phelps (min, 0.50 AAV), Thornton (3.50 AAV), Kelley (arb3, assume 3.00 AAV), Warren (min, 0.50 AAV), Claiborne (min, 0.50 AAV) Lineup (103.86 AAV + 4 FA) – Ellsbury (21.86 AAV), Beltran (15.00 AAV), Teixeira (22.50 AAV), Rodriguez (27.50 AAV), McCann (17.00 AAV), FA (Soriano), FA (Gardner), FA (Jeter), FA (Roberts) Bench (4.00 AAV + 2 FA) - Cervelli (arb2, assume 2.00 AAV), Ryan (2.00 AAV), FA, FA Total AAV is 167.40, plus 17.00 AAV in benefits/40 man roster. That puts the Yankees less than $5mm under the 2014 threshold with only 15 spots filled. LOL. Is there any evidence at all that Brian Cashman's a good GM? I love what he's done with the Yankee farm system since he took over its operation and direction in 2006. Of course, I'm a Red Sox fan. So there's that.
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Post by JackieWilsonsaid on Jan 22, 2014 13:21:57 GMT -5
And the infield.
And bullpen.
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Post by patrmac04 on Jan 22, 2014 13:23:20 GMT -5
I'll go out on a limb here and say NYY for 20/7 an out after 4 years. I would say you nailed that as close as anyone... specifically about the out clause in 4 years Sent from my SGH-T999 using proboards
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Post by joshv02 on Jan 22, 2014 13:25:55 GMT -5
They project to be below average at 2B (1.6 wins), SS (1.5 wins), 3B (1.7 wins), and DH (0.1 wins). Stars and scrubs just doesn't work that well in baseball, especially if you have a weak farm system. DH and 2nd are two of the easiest positions to fill in baseball and I hear Chase Headley wants to be a Yankee. Yet despite how easy it is to do so, at nearly the start of February the Yankees have Brian Roberts to start at 2B and the misfits at DH. Yes, if the Yankees change their team, their team will be different. That isn't very insightful. However, right now, the Yankees are a poorly constructed team with a good pitching staff and a crappy lineup.
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Post by JackieWilsonsaid on Jan 22, 2014 13:34:18 GMT -5
I'm not sure its a good staff.
The pen is questionable, and if cc continues a downward spiral and Nava regresses to norm along with an adjustment period for Tanaka, they could be bad.
I haven't seen the yearly numbers yet but ithis contract could be 22 per + 50% tax + 5 per fee = 38 total cost per ( for war calc)
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Post by jmei on Jan 22, 2014 13:36:46 GMT -5
Sorry, I have to nit-pick this. Andrew Friedman is one of the most depth-conscious GMs in the league; depth is the least of Tampa Bay's problems. Other than maybe 1B and CF, they have a lot of good depth (Molina, Lobaton, S. Rodriguez, Haku-Ju Lee, Matt Joyce, etc.), especially since Zobrist can backup so many positions. They don't have the money to have a lot of depth. If they lose one of their stars they are dead in the water. Price, Longoria ...etc. They do have a lot of supplementary guys but they are extremely susceptible to a downward plunge if one or more of their stars are out. More than most teams. You don't build depth through spending money, because notable free agents don't sign to be backups and there are only 25 roster spots. You build depth by having a deep farm system and by making shrewd acquisitions of undervalued players (see, e.g., Yunel Escobar, Ryan Hanigan, Joel Peralta, new acquisition Logan Forsythe). Every team suffers greatly if their stars get injured, but the Rays can weather the storm better than most teams because they have bench players who are well above replacement level and a solid farm system with useful fill-ins. They admittedly don't have the payroll to take on significant salary in a mid-season trade, but their strong farm system lets them substitute prospects for cash, and paying trade deadline prices for buy-high talent is perhaps the most inefficient way of building a team. I'm pretty confident that the 20th-30th spots on the Rays' roster is better than the 20th-30th spots on most teams. Indeed, we can do a quick-and-dirty calculation within the division. Using Fangraphs' depth charts, here are the total projected value for the 10th-15th best position players on each of the AL East teams: Red Sox: 3.8 fWAR (Gomes, Ross, Carp, Hassan, Cecchini, Holt) Rays: 2.6 fWAR (Rodriguez, Molina, Guyer, Lee, Kiermaier) Blue Jays: 1.1 fWAR (Izturis, Kawasaki, Pillar, Gose, Jimenez, Thole) Yankees: 1.8 fWAR (Anna, Cervelli, Suzuki, Almonte, Joseph, Nunez) Orioles: 2 fWAR (Urrutia, Weeks, Schoop, Snyder, Colvin, Monell) (Note: the depth charts are adjusted for playing time, so this isn't a perfect measure of true talent. But I'm lazy, so this is what we get.) This is an underrated reason why the 2013 Red Sox were so good and why I think the 2014 Red Sox are likely to contend/win the division, even though they lack the big names of some of the other contenders.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 22, 2014 13:45:06 GMT -5
I'm wrong about a lot of stuff and I mean a lot of stuff, but I smelled this one coming from miles away. I KNEW the Yanks were going to sign Tanaka from day one.
You can argue about whether he's worth it based on $/win or whatever but the Yanks don't give two hoots about that. They don't care about their payroll and never will. I knew they wouldn't stick to that $189 million figure. No way. The only restraint that this team has learned is not to be stupid enough to pay a player thru his age 40 something season - they learned that lesson with A-Rod and weren't going to do that with Cano. Otherwise there is no restraint.
The Yanks have missed the playoffs twice since the strike. They missed in 2008 and 2013 and both times they were compounded by recent Red Sox World Championships. The last time this happened prior to 2013 was 2008 when they went 89-73 and finished 3rd. They threw a ton of money at Sabathia, made Burnett filthy rich and got their jab at the Sox taking the free agent they wanted to sign - Teixeira.
This year they did their jab at the Sox signing Ellsbury (not that the Sox really care), signed Tanaka, signed McCann, signed Beltran and I'm sure when all is said and done the Yanks will sign Drew to play 3b (instead off SS which is quite stupid, but thanks for the draft pick), they'll sign Ubaldo Jimenez, and they'll sign Grant Balfour to close and screw over Dave Robertson. They'll compete with the Dodgers for most ridiculous payroll. And then if Kelly Johnson and/or Brian Robers isn't hacking it at SS, they'll get an expensive 2b in July.
So when the Yanks get embarrassed they spend a ton of money.
I have little doubt that Tanaka will be very good for them over the next two to three years - assuming his arm doesn't fall apart which given the strain on it could easily happen, but I do think the Yanks will get value from him. He should be a very good pitcher for them. I don't buy these Daisuke comparisons. He will make them a better team, which is the bottom line.
It won't be the value of efficient spending. At the end of the day nobody gives a crap how much $/win you pay it's only most wins that matters (and most wins in October of course), not efficiency. Efficiency is for teams like Oakland and Tampa, not the Yanks or Dodgers. The Sox don't have to be as efficient as Oakland or Tampa obviously, but given their experiences of 2011and 2013 I think they're happy not throwing it out of the window like NY and LA has done.
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Post by JackieWilsonsaid on Jan 22, 2014 13:49:23 GMT -5
And the same depth advantage with starting pitchers 6 to 12 for the sox.
Another thing with Tanaka when seeing his hilights.
Aren't his pitches easy to distinguish and his arm angle different for each pitch?
Very dicek like and Darvish adverse.
It's so great that his new laundry results in immediate and irrational hatred...good times!
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,972
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Post by jimoh on Jan 22, 2014 14:07:34 GMT -5
The Yanks are probably not through signing players. I'd bet they will soon be in playoff contention, even this year. I don't think Drew signs with the Mets. I think he signs with the Yanks. But the most important point I've been trying to stress over the past year is that top pitching is more important now. In the era of increased revenue sharing and much more parity between teams, more playoff spots etc...access to top starting pitching enables any team to contend if they can get in the playoffs. Top pitching has always been the key to winning the playoffs but it is even more important now. That's why the overpay on this deal by the Yanks. They needed Tanaka badly and they are completely obsessed with winning. Not winning puts them in a suicidal state. They can't function without winning. They have bills to pay and they want to sell those $25,000 season tickets. Which they will do if they win. I love me that compensatory pick. Hope the Yanks bite on Drew. No no no. The only thing that stops us from being worried about the Tanaka signing is that they are weak or maybe weak at all four IF positions. Drew would reduce that number by 1. We want Jeter out there posing for his statue as many games as possible and we want "Kelly Johnson likely starting at 3B & Brian Roberts at 2B."
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Post by sierram363 on Jan 22, 2014 14:16:57 GMT -5
I love me that compensatory pick. Hope the Yanks bite on Drew. No no no. The only thing that stops us from being worried about the Tanaka signing is that they are weak or maybe weak at all four IF positions. Drew would reduce that number by 1. We want Jeter out there posing for his statue as many games as possible and we want "Kelly Johnson likely starting at 3B & Brian Roberts at 2B." So Drew takes his spot and Jeter becomes a $12.5 million dollar utility player?
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 22, 2014 14:22:24 GMT -5
The Yanks are probably not through signing players. I'd bet they will soon be in playoff contention, even this year. I don't think Drew signs with the Mets. I think he signs with the Yanks. But the most important point I've been trying to stress over the past year is that top pitching is more important now. In the era of increased revenue sharing and much more parity between teams, more playoff spots etc...access to top starting pitching enables any team to contend if they can get in the playoffs. Top pitching has always been the key to winning the playoffs but it is even more important now. That's why the overpay on this deal by the Yanks. They needed Tanaka badly and they are completely obsessed with winning. Not winning puts them in a suicidal state. They can't function without winning. They have bills to pay and they want to sell those $25,000 season tickets. Which they will do if they win. Compare their roster to ours. Tell me how that bullpen is going to work out. Tell me how Drew is going to play 2B, SS and 3B because they might have 2 WAR between 4 players at those positions. And no one outside of Drew is available as a more than 1 WAR player. Add to this that they have nothing to trade other than Gardner which will create another hole in the lineup and Sanchez. Also to keep in mind is that they have absolutely no depth anywhere and any injury is going to hurt badly. Not good for a team filled with old players. They are no threat at all. I wonder what players they are going to DFA to announce these signings. I bet it will piss Tanaka off when they DFA Ichiro.
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 22, 2014 14:33:04 GMT -5
Also given the insanity of handing out half a billion dollars, how the hell can anyone say they had an offseason plan that included losing Cano?
They are in panic/stupid mode.
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