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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 8, 2017 13:20:00 GMT -5
"He's already burning an option this year" How so? i.e. if he never would have been called up this year Not to be confused with MLB service time. If he wasn't put on the 40-man then he would have been the #1 pick in the rule 5 (though I thought he wasn't eligible). Probably had to do with the SP invite. He'll be called up prior to the 3 year window unless he suffers a MAJOR injury. If you're under 18, it's the fifth R5 draft after you sign. He signed in 2012, so 12-13-14-15-16. This is why the rule is awful for international free agents. Sierra went signed/DSL/GCL/SS and Low A/Low A and was then R5 eligible, and he gets hurt by the fact he can run and play defense. Now he's got 3 years to get to the majors before he's out of options.
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Post by telson13 on May 8, 2017 15:37:42 GMT -5
Well, we know now for sure you lack the good education and good sense to admit when you're wrong. Through his first 53 PA: .267/.377/.400, 122 WRC+, IsoP of .133 All of AAA after that: .350/.426/.524, 166 WRC+, IsoP of .174 Yes, I said "75 or so," and after 72 he was at .302/.389/.460 WRC+ of 138 and an IsoP of .159. So, yeah, I committed the cardinal sin of going off of rough memory and remembering 53 as "75 or so." And yeah, I could have chosen words like "struggled" or "started poorly" better. I'm sure there's a perfectly valid small sample or in-season stochastic variation argument there as well. And some observer bias since my memory was almost certainly predicated on remembering a point 12 games in where I was probably thinking "when's he going to heat up?" I'm pretty sure none of that refutes the idea that Mookie pretty consistently started slowly at new levels *but quickly adjusted*. If you want to argue whether that, in itself, is "real," that's fine too.
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Post by Guidas on May 11, 2017 14:34:20 GMT -5
From today's Keith Law chat.
Ryan Philip: What’s your guess on how DD handles Devers down the stretch given their obvious need at 3b and the disaster Moncada was last year? At what point is it ok for them to throw Devers in the fire without sacrificing his development?
Keith Law: Buster said on the podcast this morning that he’s heard they might call Devers up; I said I thought that was aggressive, but that I also think Devers could handle the big jump without getting derailed. He’s a special talent at the plate.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 15, 2017 8:55:19 GMT -5
One thing to keep in mind: It's not like Devers was lighting the world on fire in camp with the big league club this year, going 3 for 22 (although he only struck out twice and walked three times, so there might've been some BIP luck involved). That's important only in the sense that the major league coaching staff probably won't be beating down Dombrowski's door begging him to bring the kid up.
Seriously though, if you want to make the "just give us a guy who can field the position and we'll hit him 8th" argument, Dominguez is probably your guy. Lets Devers get the reps he needs in the minors (and, in theory, opens up the spot in Pawtucket for him, not that it needs to be opened really), doesn't start his service time clock prematurely, etc. etc. (Although I guess it's starting to look like Marrero might be that guy after all.)
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Post by thursty on May 15, 2017 9:17:22 GMT -5
Dominguez has only two MLB seasons where he played substantial innings: 2013 -2014
DRS: 8 -4
UZR: -2.4 -11.9
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Post by James Dunne on May 15, 2017 9:19:33 GMT -5
So DRS has him basically as average and UZR a little bit short of that.
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Post by thursty on May 15, 2017 9:29:21 GMT -5
It's generally assumed that a plus defender at SS (there was a time where that was thought to describe Marrero), would be even better (relatively) at 3B (this in part is the justification for positional adjustments).
With very little data, I'd say I haven't been that impressed with Marrero's defense at 3B, but of course some of that is probably his unfamiliarity with it; if you're going to tolerate a sub-600 OPS, you really need a stud defender, and I don't think either Marrero or Dominguez qualify
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Post by James Dunne on May 15, 2017 9:36:07 GMT -5
In the course of building a roster, definitely. In terms of "we need a near-replacement level player who hurts us the least in the short term" Dominguez is probably an average enough defender and a better hitter than Marrero until Holt comes back.
Either way, calling up Devers for a week because he's an average defensive third baseman doesn't make sense when Dominguez is too.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 15, 2017 11:12:57 GMT -5
FWIW, our first-hand reports here at the site from Ian, Chaz, and even Matt were that Marrero's defense had regressed last year. Perhaps that was in part due to AAA malaise, but that's its own issue that's not much better than true regression.
And on a more general topic, I don't think you can necessarily assume great SS = greater 3B. For some, sure, but if your strength is, say, great range, that's not going to translate as well at short where the movements side-to-side and coming in are very different. Great arm will translate, great hands will translate, but I'd argue that SS to 2B is a more universal translation of that skillset (especially for a player who lacks a plus arm) than SS to 3B.
And as for this whole issue, let's not forget that we're basically on Plan E here. I'm not going to fault Dombrowski for not having some excellent option waiting after Sandoval, Holt, Hernandez, AND Rutledge. If you want to fault him for those being the options, ok fine, but when you have three guys who play a position going down and the fourth seemingly forgetting how to play a position he's played adequately in the past, I don't think you can do more than shrug your shoulders at the options left being less-than-palatable.
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Post by mattpicard on May 15, 2017 19:27:26 GMT -5
FWIW, our first-hand reports here at the site from Ian, Chaz, and even Matt were that Marrero's defense had regressed last year. Perhaps that was in part due to AAA malaise, but that's its own issue that's not much better than true regression. And on a more general topic, I don't think you can necessarily assume great SS = greater 3B. For some, sure, but if your strength is, say, great range, that's not going to translate as well at short where the movements side-to-side and coming in are very different. Great arm will translate, great hands will translate, but I'd argue that SS to 2B is a more universal translation of that skillset (especially for a player who lacks a plus arm) than SS to 3B. And as for this whole issue, let's not forget that we're basically on Plan E here. I'm not going to fault Dombrowski for not having some excellent option waiting after Sandoval, Holt, Hernandez, AND Rutledge. If you want to fault him for those being the options, ok fine, but when you have three guys who play a position going down and the fourth seemingly forgetting how to play a position he's played adequately in the past, I don't think you can do more than shrug your shoulders at the options left being less-than-palatable.Thing is, Rutledge has always been a second baseman who's been visibly limited on the left side. Holt is primarily a 2B/UT who we've seen get exposed in extended time at 3B. Hernandez is a middle infielder with 20 games of minor league experience at third. The Sox went into this season with Matt Dominguez as the only true third baseman in the MLB/AAA group behind Sandoval, and I think they deserve some serious fault for that. Combined with Hanley becoming a DH-only type, we really could have used a 3B/1B RHH -- such as Trevor Plouffe, who they were looking at but considered too pricey (the A's signed him for $5.2M).
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,441
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Post by radiohix on May 16, 2017 13:18:14 GMT -5
This is a must-hear podcast guys. Eddie Romero talks about scouting Rafa and building relationship with his family (something the Sox excelled at under the Romero regime) and the things he still needs to work on.
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Post by carmenfanzone on May 17, 2017 7:59:13 GMT -5
He is at about 125 at bats now and is not slowing down. If he is still hitting like this at about 200 at bats, I think it is time to see what he can do at AAA.
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Post by greatscottcooper on May 17, 2017 9:43:31 GMT -5
He is at about 125 at bats now and is not slowing down. If he is still hitting like this at about 200 at bats, I think it is time to see what he can do at AAA. I agree, but I'd be placing my bets on an early promotion after June 1.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 17, 2017 11:41:45 GMT -5
Mookie Betts was promoted to Pawtucket on June 3 after 253 PA (I think Portland had fewer rainouts that year, plus he was hitting leadoff). He was hitting .355/.443/.551. The team was desperate for help at the position he'd moved to and really didn't have another option. He was 21 years old. (I think that's all the relevant data?)
Devers is at 124 PA and is hitting .333/.403/.604 (and rising: he's at .408/.517/.796 in May). Age 20. Team probably isn't quite as desperate at his position (Pablo about to go on a rehab assignment and he'll get a chance first), but they could use the help.
I'd like to see him get another hundred plate appearances, but I think somewhere between June 1 to June 15 sounds right.
How about Tuesday, June 6?
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Post by thursty on May 17, 2017 12:31:36 GMT -5
Do we really need to be breathless over 0-2 walks and flyouts to the warning track? Perhaps slow the hype train just a tiny bit?
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Post by jimed14 on May 17, 2017 12:37:12 GMT -5
Same posts were in the Mookie Betts thread too. ^
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Post by jmei on May 18, 2017 11:53:11 GMT -5
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Post by rookie13 on May 18, 2017 16:15:01 GMT -5
I knew his numbers were impressive for a 20 year old at that level, but damn. Those are some intriguing names to see him listed along. I've been on the side of keeping him in the minors, but Dave does a great job of explaining why it wouldn't be that crazy if the Sox decide to promote him.
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Post by telson13 on May 18, 2017 17:34:18 GMT -5
That's a very well-supported argument, and I'm inclined to think he's right. Dombrowski's never been hesitant about promoting youth, if he thinks the player will produce. Mid-July arrival is my guess, provided there's no AAA backslide.
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Post by dnfl333 on May 18, 2017 18:11:16 GMT -5
Cut to the chase and Call him up...
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Post by Oregon Norm on May 18, 2017 18:21:42 GMT -5
On the condition that he gets some time in AAA and keeps raking (with a little taking) July sounds about right. It's early but he seems to be of a mind to trash AA pitching so they'll need to move him up.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 18, 2017 22:37:05 GMT -5
Let's be clear about the point of the article. It's a counter-argument to an article that ran earlier this week saying that the Red Sox were going to be buyers in the trade market for a third baseman.
His point is not that Devers should be promoted to Boston tomorrow. He's saying maybe in mid-June, and that he'd be the first option before they make a trade. I agree with the second half of that statement. I think the former is a bit aggressive, but it's certainly a convincing argument.
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Post by raftsox on May 19, 2017 14:16:55 GMT -5
If you're under 18, it's the fifth R5 draft after you sign. He signed in 2012, so 12-13-14-15-16. This is why the rule is awful for international free agents. Sierra went signed/DSL/GCL/SS and Low A/Low A and was then R5 eligible, and he gets hurt by the fact he can run and play defense. Now he's got 3 years to get to the majors before he's out of options. Agreed. The purpose of the rule is help ensure minor leaguers won't be stashed by the major league team indefinitely, but the system doesn't work as is. The rule should be something like this: 1. If selected and signed in the Rule 4 draft then: a) High School draftees (regardless of calendar age) are eligible for Rule 5 selection in the fourth R5 draft after signing b) College and Junior College draftees (regardless of calendar age) are eligible for R5 selection in the third R5 draft after signing c) International free agents younger than 18 [current cutoff age] are eligible for R5 selection in the 6th R5 after signing d) International free agents between the ages of 18 and 23 are eligible for R5 selection in the 4th R5 draft after signing e) International free agents older than 23 are eligible for R5 selection in the 2nd R5 draft after signing
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Post by sibbysisti on May 19, 2017 15:16:05 GMT -5
Third base is definitely in need of an upgrade. I, too, am anxious to see how this 20 year old can perform at the highest level. I'm also remembering the rapid promotion of another phenom in the recent past. He couldn't handle ML pitching.
While Yoan is still a potential star, his failings at a young age concern me when we talk about rushing Devers to Boston.
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Post by jimed14 on May 19, 2017 15:19:21 GMT -5
Third base is definitely in need of an upgrade. I, too, am anxious to see how this 20 year old can perform at the highest level. I'm also remembering the rapid promotion of another phenom in the recent past. He couldn't handle ML pitching. While Yoan is still a potential star, his failings at a young age concern me when we talk about rushing Devers to Boston. The rapid promotion of Mookie and Benintendi didn't see the same problems. It's all about contact ability. The guys without a lot of swing and miss in their game are much more likely to quickly adjust to major league pitching from what I've seen.
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