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9/30-10/2 Wild Card Games Thread
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Post by okin15 on Sept 30, 2013 9:16:35 GMT -5
Thinking about this like a Series/Gameday thread for the three wild card games including game 163.
9/30 Rays (LHP David Price 9-8 3.39) @ Rangers (LHP Martin Perez 10-5 3.55) 8:07pm ET, TBS
10/1 Reds (RHP Johnny Cueto 5-2 2.82) @ Pirates (LHP Francisco Liriano 16-8 3.02) 8:07pm ET, TBS
10/2 Rays (RHP Alex Cobb 11-3 2.76) @ Indians (RHP Danny Salazar 2-3 3.12) 8:07 ET, TBS
Series Thread Disclaimer: The SoxProspects Moderators will be somewhat liberal in policing the Red Sox "Series" Threads. Some of the Ground Rules are applied loosely in here, as we understand that there is a tendency to want to react (or overreact) to every play of a Sox game with one line reactionary posts. Those posts are okay in the Red Sox Series threads to a point - we certainly appreciate the passion. Just try not to overdo it, and try to maintain some semblance of reason. In addition, please don't let those type of posts spill over to other more substantive threads, where they may be deleted. -The Management
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Post by jmei on Sept 30, 2013 9:58:57 GMT -5
I'll allow it.
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Post by rangoon82 on Sept 30, 2013 10:03:01 GMT -5
If the Rays win two the Sox would probably get Price on Friday
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Post by brianthetaoist on Sept 30, 2013 10:19:57 GMT -5
Who goes for the Rays against the Indians, if they win tonight? Cobb?
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Sept 30, 2013 11:40:18 GMT -5
Im going to be very worried if we get the Rays.
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Post by Guidas on Sept 30, 2013 12:14:41 GMT -5
Im going to be very worried if we get the Rays. This. I was so praying for them to be eliminated yesterday. They more than any team in the AL right now (Cabrera injured) are built for the post-season. |
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Post by templeusox on Sept 30, 2013 12:39:48 GMT -5
Anyone want to predict the start times of Friday's 4 games. My guess:
1 PM: Dodgers/Braves
4 PM: NL Wild Card/Cardinals
7 PM: AL Wild Card/Red Sox
10 PM: Tigers/A's
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 30, 2013 12:53:01 GMT -5
If the Rays win two the Sox would probably get Price on Friday No, they'd pitch Moore in Game 1. Price would only have 3 days of rest. Price would pitch Game 2 on Saturday, Cobb would pitch Game 3 on Monday, then Game 4 would be Archer on Tuesday (unless Joe felt the need to pitch Moore on 3 days of rest if down 2 games to 1). Game 5 would be on Thurs, 10/10, and Price would have 4 days of rest to pitch the decisive game if need be. |
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Sept 30, 2013 13:03:55 GMT -5
Who goes for the Rays against the Indians, if they win tonight? Cobb? I am projecting the AL Wildcard scheduled probables. My best effort, criticize away. Francona named Salazar as his WED wildcard starter. ———————TAMPA————CLEVE————TEXAS WED 25 ==== PRICE -—— —— SALAZAR ——— PEREZ THU 26 ==== COBB -—— —— McAllister -—— GARZA FRI 27 ==== HELLKSON -—— KLUBER -—— OGANDO SAT 28 ==== ARCHER -—— — KASMIR -—— HOLLAND SUN 29 ==== MOORE -—— — JIMENEZ -—— DARVISH MON 30 TIE2 PRICE -——- —— off ———-— PEREZ TUE 01 OFF= -— off —————— off -————— off WED 02 WILD --COBB -———— SALAZAR -—— OGANDO or Garza THU 03 OFF= -— off —————— off -————— off FRI 04 ALDS --MOORE ------- JIMENEZ -—---- DARVISH SAT 05 ALDS -PRICE -—— —— McAllister ———HOLLAND ? All of this assumes no rain-outs. Does not attempt to figure short-rest starts. Reminder that the game 2 SAT starter can go in game 5 on normal rest. |
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 30, 2013 13:17:59 GMT -5
Anyone want to predict the start times of Friday's 4 games. My guess: 1 PM: Dodgers/Braves 4 PM: NL Wild Card/Cardinals 7 PM: AL Wild Card/Red Sox 10 PM: Tigers/A's I'd swap the NL games. I don't think they'll hang a 10:00am Pacific start on Dodger fans. |
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Sept 30, 2013 13:20:14 GMT -5
Im going to be very worried if we get the Rays. This. I was so praying for them to be eliminated yesterday. They more than any team in the AL right now (Cabrera injured) are built for the post-season. quoting Guidas on the Non-Sox MLB thread: "So what's Francona's deal - he already had home field guaranteed for the WC after yesterday no matter what the tie situation and yet he throws his best pitcher today? Pretty much banking on Tampa and Texas playing a tie breaker then throwing Ubaldo on 3 days rest or is he really that confident in Kazmier(!) or Kluber that they could beat the Price and Rays or the winner of the Rays/Texas (which mean he'd face Cobb or Archer or Hellboy/Darvish on 3 days or Holland + all hands? Just seems odd when he could be throwing a rested Ubaldo Jimenez on Tues or Weds." I agree that the decision yesterday to go with Jimenez for over 100 pitches is likely to come back to bite the Indians. Salazar in the decisive WED elimination game! As Jimenez could only go in one game, TUES or WED makes more sense, objectively. Even if Francona assumed the TEX and TB victories on SUN ... they have 3 chances to win and get to WED. I would have taken my chances with the rest of the staff on SUN with Jimenez in relief for up to 30 pitches. Even facing Price on Monday and Perez (TEX) on Tuesday. Francona: "We just want to keep winning (today)" ... tomorrow will take care of tomorrow. Going into play SUN, CLE had 97% chance of making it to WED ... even with the 2 other victories factored in (TEX & TB), and factoring in Price on MON ... they were over 85%. Prediction: Jimenez watches his team lose on WED due to Salazar performance. P.S. Vegas odds: TB is the road favorite on Monday at 54% (due to Price, obviously). |
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Post by pedroelgrande on Sept 30, 2013 13:22:56 GMT -5
As I said in an earlier thread. I don't care who the Red Sox get. Any team is going to be tough but I have confidence the Red Sox will be up to it. Besides if the Red Sox get knocked out it has been a hell of a ride. All I wanted was to get back to respectability, all I'm eating is gravy right now.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,931
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 30, 2013 13:34:26 GMT -5
So, what did the Rangers do to deserve home-field advantage in this game, given that the Rays' schedule was 2.2 games tougher, meaning that they shouldn't even be in the hunt at all?
Well, they won the head-to-head series 4-3, even though 4 of the games were in Tampa Bay. Isn't that meaningful, at least a little?
Hmm ... by the sheer luck of the schedule draw, the starting pitchers for the Rangers in those 7 games were Darvish, Holland (twice), Ogando (twice), Garza, and Nick Tepesch. Their average ERA: 3.57, way better than that of all the Rangers' starters, 3.99.
The Rays starters were Moore (twice), Archer, Cobb, Hellickson (twice), and Hernandez. They lost all three games started by the last two. No Price. Their average ERA: 3.95, worse than the team average of 3.82.
So the Rangers won the head-to-head by pure luck. Furthermore, if the Rays rotation had fallen more favorably, they may not have won an extra game overall, but they may have swapped a Price victory over some other team with one of the Hellickson losses, which means that the Rangers would have won one less game and not even tied them to begin with.
So ... you're neck and neck with some team, and you are clearly better, but in the mere handful of head-to-head games, which count double, you have crap luck in the pitching matchups, allowing the other team to take the season series and tie you. And your compensation for that is ... they get the home field advantage in the tie-breaker, too.
Head-to-head makes some sense as a tie-breaker between two clubs in the same division which have played nearly identical schedules and faced each other 19 times. As a tie-breaker between clubs in different divisions, it's crap.
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Post by Guidas on Sept 30, 2013 13:48:46 GMT -5
So, what did the Rangers do to deserve home-field advantage in this game, given that the Rays' schedule was 2.2 games tougher, meaning that they shouldn't even be in the hunt at all? Well, they won the head-to-head series 4-3, even though 4 of the games were in Tampa Bay. Isn't that meaningful, at least a little? Hmm ... by the sheer luck of the schedule draw, the starting pitchers for the Rangers in those 7 games were Darvish, Holland (twice), Ogando (twice), Garza, and Nick Tepesch. Their average ERA: 3.57, way better than that of all the Rangers' starters, 3.99. The Rays starters were Moore (twice), Archer, Cobb, Hellickson (twice), and Hernandez. They lost all three games started by the last two. No Price. Their average ERA: 3.95, worse than the team average of 3.82. So the Rangers won the head-to-head by pure luck. Furthermore, if the Rays rotation had fallen more favorably, they may not have won an extra game overall, but they may have swapped a Price victory over some other team with one of the Hellickson losses, which means that the Rangers would have won one less game and not even tied them to begin with. So ... you're neck and neck with some team, and you are clearly better, but in the mere handful of head-to-head games, which count double, you have crap luck in the pitching matchups, allowing the other team to take the season series and tie you. And your compensation for that is ... they get the home field advantage in the tie-breaker, too. Head-to-head makes some sense as a tie-breaker between two clubs in the same division which have played nearly identical schedules and faced each other 19 times. As a tie-breaker between clubs in different divisions, it's crap. That's basically a metaphor for life in general. Success is where you go from there when opportunity knocks, or even when it sneaks in the back door. |
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Post by okin15 on Sept 30, 2013 13:50:15 GMT -5
So the Rangers won the head-to-head by pure luckMost of baseball is luck. Best teams only win 60% of the time. One-game playoffs are basically a coin flip. I don't see how "fixing" the tie-breaking procedures to make them more complex or "fair" would be worth the headache. I mean, you could start arguing that playing in Texas, the Rangers have to travel way further than most teams and play tons of games out of their own time zone, and therefore their own schedule is harder. I suppose that we could have these contests at a neutral site... all do-or-die games hosted at KC or StL or somewhere else in flyover country. Just not sure that makes it any more fun, or fair, or anything else good, especially when the logistics and rules etc. have to be worked out well ahead of time by competition comittees and applied evenly to everyone. Sometimes, knowing the rules of the system early, is more fair than having a fair system. |
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 30, 2013 14:05:27 GMT -5
Playing the Astros wasn't luck though. I don't have any problem with the somewhat-arbitrary head-to-head tiebreaker being in place, because more complex tiebreakers can be confusing, fan-unfriendly, and may end up with a result that is just as unfair/unlucky. The unbalanced schedule is a pretty serious issue though. The Rangers are in game 163 because they got to beat up on the Astros a ton.
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Post by okin15 on Sept 30, 2013 14:41:58 GMT -5
If the Rays had as good a record (%) against Houston as the Rangers, then they would have gone 6-1 or 7-0 and won it outright.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Sept 30, 2013 15:07:13 GMT -5
Im going to be very worried if we get the Rays. This. I was so praying for them to be eliminated yesterday. They more than any team in the AL right now (Cabrera injured) are built for the post-season. We can celebrate if the Rays lose. It would be epic if Cleveland had a walk off win vs the Rays. |
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Post by grandsalami on Sept 30, 2013 17:50:33 GMT -5
Scott Lauber ?@scottlauber 4m
Game 1 of #RedSox' ALDS will be at 3:07 p.m. Friday. Game 2 will be at 5:37 p.m. Saturday
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Post by mredsox89 on Sept 30, 2013 18:35:48 GMT -5
Bleh. Not a fan of either start times but I'm sure Fenway will still be solid regardless. My guess is that there could be a late arriving crowd to game 1, though hopefully most people will get there on time
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Post by johnsilver52 on Sept 30, 2013 19:01:16 GMT -5
Got to love those digs by Pedro, especially that final "enough is enough" he threw at Texas, then at NY he went back to NY when they beat NY.
Pedro never misses a chance to diss NY. Am sure Yankee fans are peed again with him on TBS.
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Post by p23w on Sept 30, 2013 19:21:45 GMT -5
My preference for RS opponent in the ALDS
1) Rangers
2) Ray
3) Indians
PS I think we match up well against the Tigers. Just need to practice some bunting. Don't want to see the A's.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 30, 2013 19:36:09 GMT -5
So, what did the Rangers do to deserve home-field advantage in this game, given that the Rays' schedule was 2.2 games tougher, meaning that they shouldn't even be in the hunt at all? Well, they won the head-to-head series 4-3, even though 4 of the games were in Tampa Bay. Isn't that meaningful, at least a little? Hmm ... by the sheer luck of the schedule draw, the starting pitchers for the Rangers in those 7 games were Darvish, Holland (twice), Ogando (twice), Garza, and Nick Tepesch. Their average ERA: 3.57, way better than that of all the Rangers' starters, 3.99. The Rays starters were Moore (twice), Archer, Cobb, Hellickson (twice), and Hernandez. They lost all three games started by the last two. No Price. Their average ERA: 3.95, worse than the team average of 3.82. So the Rangers won the head-to-head by pure luck. Furthermore, if the Rays rotation had fallen more favorably, they may not have won an extra game overall, but they may have swapped a Price victory over some other team with one of the Hellickson losses, which means that the Rangers would have won one less game and not even tied them to begin with. So ... you're neck and neck with some team, and you are clearly better, but in the mere handful of head-to-head games, which count double, you have crap luck in the pitching matchups, allowing the other team to take the season series and tie you. And your compensation for that is ... they get the home field advantage in the tie-breaker, too. Head-to-head makes some sense as a tie-breaker between two clubs in the same division which have played nearly identical schedules and faced each other 19 times. As a tie-breaker between clubs in different divisions, it's crap. Holy cow. Give me a break, Eric. If you want to complain about the other weird tiebreakers like intra-division record to break a tie between teams in different divisions, fine, but this kind of crap is what makes it hard to take you seriously sometimes. You're trying to say that there's a better way to break a tie between two teams then how they did when they WENT OUT ON A BASEBALL FIELD AND PLAYED EACH OTHER? I'm sorry, but it's ridiculous garbage like this that makes some people tune you out even when you make good points. Games are played on a baseball field, Eric, not on a spreadsheet. |
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Post by Guidas on Sept 30, 2013 20:00:10 GMT -5
I so don't want to play Tampa.
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Sept 30, 2013 20:19:34 GMT -5
This home plate umpire Kellogg is brutal with calling balls and strikes. Guys like him, West, Buckner, Hernandez, etc should not be umpiring never mind having them in post-season games. Someone from the Rangers is going to get tossed as there is only so much incompetence anyone can take . Kellogg better have a long fuse as even he must realize how bad he is.
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