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2014 MLB Draft discussion
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Post by pedroelgrande on Apr 18, 2014 12:43:55 GMT -5
Yeah, I agree that HS arms are the deepest category this year. I'd also probably agree with you that I'd like for that to result in a college bat falling, and then taking our chances on a HS arm of our own. I'd love to find this years Hunter Harvey. There are a ton of HS arms this year. It's a pitching draft in general as the college class is deep in pitching as well. As much as I'd like that shinny hitting prospect I wouldn't mind if they keep going pitching heavy if that's how it unfolds. I'd keep an eye on Jacob “JB” Bukauskas - UNC commit, dials it up to the high 90's. Especially interesting because he's a junior who will graduate early, and is thus draft eligible under the new rules, in which he reclassified himself as Class of '14. He was ranked 88th overall by Perfect Game over the winter, but his stock is soaring right now, and if he wasn't considered a tough sign, might wind up in the first round. Yeah he is the big pop-up guy of this year, Brady Aiken has taken the bigger leap as he has moved to 1-1 candidate but he was a 1st round guy coming in. I think one draft "experts," I forget now who it was, said teams in the top 10 are taking a look.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Apr 18, 2014 12:48:32 GMT -5
I know we have absolutely no chance of drafting him, but Tyler Kolek can really bring it. Wow! I know the Astros need a ton of help sooner rather than later, but how could they pass on Kolek at #1? As for slightly better chances the Sox have in this draft. I am hoping OF Fisher or OF Conforto falls to them. Maybe because throwing 100 is not the only important thing? Anyways apparently Jeff Luhnow was at his last start so they are taking a look but that doesn't mean much at this point.
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Post by jdb on Apr 18, 2014 18:08:00 GMT -5
It's been a few but here are some thoughts I have - We don't pick high but the top the draft is influx right now. Hoffman had the best start of his career probably striking out 16. There was heat on the stand as Jed Hoyer and Theo Epstein were in the house along with other officials picking high in the draft. - Jacob Bakauskas a RHP from Virginia HS is ermerging. He is 17 as he reclassified for this class and throwing triple digits apparently. Another one creating some buzz is Cameron Varga RHP from Ohio. He was very good at the start of the summer then was out do to injury, I don't know exactly what it was but it wasn't the elbow or shoulder. He has come back and is looking very good. He is old for the class, already 19, but he is a very intriguing arm. - My "dream" scenario right now is that these HS arms get pushed up and guys like Kyle Schawber, the Indiana 1B/C, or Michael Conforto, LF/1B, Oregon ST, drop to us with the 1st pick and then the balance that with a guy like Luis Ortiz who is out injured but as long as is not the shoulder I'd like, or a HS athlete to give more life to the lower levels. - Anyways this draft is looking deep in bottom half of the 1st round prospects so it should fun to follow who the Red Sox pick. I think with it looking like the hitting class not being great we probably see some reaches for guys like Conforto and Schawber. I think we might have a chance on Fisher though. What's your take on him? Seems of the three we are talking about he might have the best glove and I'm not sure if our front office drafts a guy who projects as a 1B and maybe not even LF. Do teams think Gettys swing can be fixed?
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Post by pedroelgrande on Apr 18, 2014 18:48:06 GMT -5
I think with it looking like the hitting class not being great we probably see some reaches for guys like Conforto and Schawber. I think we might have a chance on Fisher though. What's your take on him? Seems of the three we are talking about he might have the best glove and I'm not sure if our front office drafts a guy who projects as a 1B and maybe not even LF. Do teams think Gettys swing can be fixed? I agree that it's probably wishful thinking on my part that's why I said "dream" scenario. I like both of those guys at the plate and think the Sox would be interested because of their upside at the plate. They don't usually do it, they prefer the guy with defensive value, but they did draft Brentz and signed Devers last year so if they like someone they do it, the thing is identifying who they like. Fisher is a tricky guy. I really liked him out of HS and thought they might draft him in the 4th-5th round but that wasn't the case obviously. He has had an interesting College career and despite the athleticism one of the knocks on him has been his defense, he projects as LF and I've seen some suggest (I think it was Jonh Manuel of BBA) that he may be a 1st baseman. At the plate he can hit but the power has been questioned, though UVA's park is really tough for power. I still like him and wouldn't mind him as the pick but there are some things that the Re Sox scouts would have to figure out. On Gettys: I like what he could be, who wouldn't, but I don't know how likely it is he reaches that. The thing about the swing is that it is getting in his head. His other things are so good though that if you have a good hitting coach maybe you can get something but it's a big risk, though at the end of the 1st round I don't mind that, he probably doesn't drop that far anyways I think. I'd be pleasantly surprise if the Red Sox drafted a risky HS athlete in the 1st round, Swihart was thought to be a very good hitter so I don't know how risky that was, I know they usually flameout but I don't care my job doesn't depend on it
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Post by jdb on Apr 20, 2014 8:41:45 GMT -5
I was looking at Laws and MLBs top 50 and Alex Verdugo looks like someone we would be interested in. Two way player but at his height probably ends up in the OF in the Pros. Looks to have average or better tools and is a guy who probably transitions to RF on the defensive spectrum instead of LF.
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Post by wskeleton76 on Apr 20, 2014 8:54:26 GMT -5
I love him too. His tool is not sexy but he really knows how to play the game. Also his swing is very powerful.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Apr 20, 2014 11:27:39 GMT -5
I was looking at Laws and MLBs top 50 and Alex Verdugo looks like someone we would be interested in. Two way player but at his height probably ends up in the OF in the Pros. Looks to have average or better tools and is a guy who probably transitions to RF on the defensive spectrum instead of LF. Yeah he is flying a bit under the radar because he has been dealing with some nagging injuries that have kept him out of some games. I agree he could be someone the Red Sox could be interested in.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Apr 21, 2014 20:54:58 GMT -5
Another college hitter that may get pushed up boards is Casey Gillespie of Wichita St. He is a 1B with power from the left side. Apparently he is getting play in the back half of the 1st round.
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Post by dewey1972 on Apr 21, 2014 22:57:30 GMT -5
Is there anyone in this draft of the Bradley/Marrero mold? Obviously the two have differences, but both came into their junior years with a good chance to go in the top half of the first round and then slipped--appropriately so. Just curious if there's anyone like that in this draft.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Apr 21, 2014 23:24:05 GMT -5
Is there anyone in this draft of the Bradley/Marrero mold? Obviously the two have differences, but both came into their junior years with a good chance to go in the top half of the first round and then slipped--appropriately so. Just curious if there's anyone like that in this draft. It's hard to know this far out but the two guys that come to mind are Trea Turner, SS, NC State and Derek Fisher, OF, Virginia (yes positions are just coincidence). Turner came into the year with top 5 hype but was having bit of a tough year until recently. He was thought of as a top of the order catalyst who shoots balls into the gaps and run around the bases, he wasn't considered in the same class as Marrero defensively but it was thought he'd stay there. He has turned it around lately so i don't think he'd fall to 26 but he is more of a top 15 pick rather than the top 5 pick. Fisher has been mentioned before in this thread. The similarities are that he was a potential top 15 pick coming in but suffered a hamate bone injury (Same as Bradley I believe) which sidelined him for 6 weeks; he came back just this weekend. There are some differences though. Bradley had demonstrated more polish in college, starring for a college WS winning team, and was thought to be a very good defensive CF. Fisher mean while has been more toolsy than polish and has questions obout his defense. Of the two Fisher is most likely to last to the Red Sox pick , however they may pass on him as the did last year with Austin Wilson, in the 2nd round. We'll have to wait to see who the draft intelligentsia connects them to, there has been nothing so far.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Apr 22, 2014 12:52:59 GMT -5
Another guy I'm keeping an eye on that may drop is Sean Newcomb, LHP, Hartford. It's not because of injury or non performance it's because he may get lost in the sea of pitchers this year, kind of like Matt Barnes. Other college pitchers that may fit this description are Erick Fedde and Luke Weaver. Not saying it's going to happen but it may happen.
Last night I was watching Miami vs Notre Dame and Pat Conaughton (hope I have that right) looked good, he could be a solid 2nd/3rd round pick, he is from Mass so I guessed some would be interested to know.
The other high profile Mass product, Tyler Beede, has had a couple rocky start in the last few weeks. He is still top 10 but needs to turn it around to hold that, lots of pitching this draft.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Apr 22, 2014 20:17:13 GMT -5
I was mistaken on describing Casey Gillaspie as a lefty 1B with power. In fact he is a switch hitting 1B with plus power and on base ability. This was prompted by a BA draft pod cast, here is the link: www.baseballamerica.com/college/baseball-america-midseason-draft-update-podcast/They talked about a bunch of guys including Verdugo who seems like the scouts they talked to have been down a little bit. They say he prefers to go out as a hitter and talked about how good he looked in the summer but this spring the scouts they talked to say he is "lacking energy."
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 22, 2014 20:22:10 GMT -5
Is there anyone in this draft of the Bradley/Marrero mold? Obviously the two have differences, but both came into their junior years with a good chance to go in the top half of the first round and then slipped--appropriately so. Just curious if there's anyone like that in this draft. It's hard to know this far out but the two guys that come to mind are Trea Turner, SS, NC State and Derek Fisher, OF, Virginia (yes positions are just coincidence). Turner came into the year with top 5 hype but was having bit of a tough year until recently. He was thought of as a top of the order catalyst who shoots balls into the gaps and run around the bases, he wasn't considered in the same class as Marrero defensively but it was thought he'd stay there. He has turned it around lately so i don't think he'd fall to 26 but he is more of a top 15 pick rather than the top 5 pick. Fisher has been mentioned before in this thread. The similarities are that he was a potential top 15 pick coming in but suffered a hamate bone injury (Same as Bradley I believe) which sidelined him for 6 weeks; he came back just this weekend. There are some differences though. Bradley had demonstrated more polish in college, starring for a college WS winning team, and was thought to be a very good defensive CF. Fisher mean while has been more toolsy than polish and has questions obout his defense. Of the two Fisher is most likely to last to the Red Sox pick , however they may pass on him as the did last year with Austin Wilson, in the 2nd round. We'll have to wait to see who the draft intelligentsia connects them to, there has been nothing so far. Turner is the one who is interesting to me. If teams aren't sold on him as a shortstop then he may fall to the second half of the first round. He definitely has the speed to handle CF though, and he seems to very much fit within the profile of the type of player the Red Sox have drafted. The chances are slim that he falls to Boston, but if he does I'd be a little surprised if they didn't nab him.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Apr 22, 2014 20:57:16 GMT -5
Its unlikely but I agree with you, I'd be surprised if they passed on him too. If they did it would be because of the defense at ss or there was another guy they liked more.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Apr 22, 2014 21:05:33 GMT -5
Another guy I'm keeping an eye on that may drop is Sean Newcomb, LHP, Hartford. It's not because of injury or non performance it's because he may get lost in the sea of pitchers this year, kind of like Matt Barnes. Other college pitchers that may fit this description are Erick Fedde and Luke Weaver. Not saying it's going to happen but it may happen. Last night I was watching Miami vs Notre Dame and Pat Conaughton (hope I have that right) looked good, he could be a solid 2nd/3rd round pick, he is from Mass so I guessed some would be interested to know. The other high profile Mass product, Tyler Beede, has had a couple rocky start in the last few weeks. He is still top 10 but needs to turn it around to hold that, lots of pitching this draft. Good to hear that Conaughton is playing, he's certainly athletic as he played for Notre Dame's basketball team too.
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 22, 2014 22:51:44 GMT -5
I'd be surprised if they passed on him too. If they did it would be because [...] there was another guy they liked more. Is that how it works eh? You draft the guys you like most?
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Post by pedroelgrande on Apr 22, 2014 23:33:58 GMT -5
No you draft the guys that you think the least of. "Hey I think this guy is a 4th OF on the GCL let's draft him in the 1st round" or you draft a guy that doesn't pitch well in tough weather, like let's say Ranaudo.
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Post by jdb on Apr 23, 2014 7:48:39 GMT -5
I hope Trea Turner gets drafted before us. I don't think he will hit enough as he moves up. In Laws scouting report he mentions below average bat speed.
Speaking of Law I think an updated top 100 comes out soon. Maybe this week.
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 23, 2014 9:30:25 GMT -5
Turner is one of those players whose lack of pure bat speed doesn't worry me. His quick hands make him very quick to the baseball - the "swing path," to use a golf term that seems to have made its way into the baseball scouting world, is very short and compact. You can make up for a long swing path with elite bat speed - think Bryce Harper, who has a pretty huge hitch in his swing but nobody really cares because his bat is so fast that he hits the ball anyway. It would be wonderful to find a player with both but I don't see Barry Bonds being available at #26.
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Post by amfox1 on Apr 23, 2014 14:01:34 GMT -5
BA draft notes from podcast:
Very pitching-heavy 1st round. BA has Jackson/Gordon/Zimmer as the only position players in its top ten.
Nick Burdi sitting 96-99, touching 100. Tyler Kolek sitting 100 (Gerrit Cole comp).
Ranks Kolek/Aiken as 1a/b, Holmes/Toussaint as 2a/b and Reid-Foley as the top of the 3rd tier. Mentions Madeiros, Jacob Bukauskas (reclassified from 2015) and Spencer Adams (Georgia multi-sport athlete, 90-95) as two pop-up candidates for the third tier.
Mentions Luis Ortiz as falling due to elbow issue (velocity has fallen from 94-96 to 90-92). Also mentions Alex Verdugo is falling, mainly because he wants to be drafted as a hitter, where his pitching is more highly touted.
Mentions Scott Blewett (tall NY pitcher) as a late 1st round possibility.
As to college pitchers, mentions Kolek/Aiken as passing Rodon. Rodon is not trending up, but comparable to Jonathan Gray. Hoffman is comped to Mike Leake. Beede is dropping, as he doesn't throw enough strikes. Freeland/Finnegan/Newcomb are moving up into the teens.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Apr 23, 2014 15:17:05 GMT -5
I think the Hoffman/Leake thing was more about a study they did on 1st round pitchers with the lowest so/9 and Hoffman had the lowest, Leake had the 2nd lowest I believe so it wasn't a pure comp as Hoffman is 6'5" and is up to 97.
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Post by jdb on Apr 24, 2014 9:09:26 GMT -5
Ortiz is someone I haven't even looked to much at just bc I thought he'd be long gone. Even with a hurt elbow I don't see him dropping to us but with very good pitchers out there maybe teams think the risk isn't worth it. I see where Fishers back for UVA and hit a HR Tue. Law also mentions Bukauskus as a guy towards the back of round 1. insider.espn.go.com/blog/mlb-draft/post?id=1601
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Post by amfox1 on Apr 24, 2014 9:20:53 GMT -5
Rut roh.
keithlaw ?@keithlaw 3m ECU right hander Jeff Hoffman will miss at least his next two starts after experiencing arm soreness during a side session yesterday.
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Post by jmei on Apr 24, 2014 9:49:40 GMT -5
Random thought after reading this piece on how pitchers age: this front office's recent focus on drafting starters might be motivated by the fact that pitchers don't peak in the mid-to-late 20s like position players do, but rather start to decline as soon as they reach the majors (in large part because velocity maxes out at a young age and only declines as a pitcher gets older). Combine that with the extraordinary rate at which pitchers get injured, and it might make a lot of sense to focus on drafting and developing young pitchers, even at the expense of position players.
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Post by wskeleton76 on Apr 24, 2014 9:54:14 GMT -5
BA draft notes from podcast: Very pitching-heavy 1st round. BA has Jackson/Gordon/Zimmer as the only position players in its top ten. Nick Burdi sitting 96-99, touching 100. Tyler Kolek sitting 100 (Gerrit Cole comp). Ranks Kolek/Aiken as 1a/b, Holmes/Toussaint as 2a/b and Reid-Foley as the top of the 3rd tier. Mentions Madeiros, Jacob Bukauskas (reclassified from 2015) and Spencer Adams (Georgia multi-sport athlete, 90-95) as two pop-up candidates for the third tier. Mentions Luis Ortiz as falling due to elbow issue (velocity has fallen from 94-96 to 90-92). Also mentions Alex Verdugo is falling, mainly because he wants to be drafted as a hitter, where his pitching is more highly touted. Mentions Scott Blewett (tall NY pitcher) as a late 1st round possibility. As to college pitchers, mentions Kolek/Aiken as passing Rodon. Rodon is not trending up, but comparable to Jonathan Gray. Hoffman is comped to Mike Leake. Beede is dropping, as he doesn't throw enough strikes. Freeland/Finnegan/Newcomb are moving up into the teens. Thanks. It's unbelievable HS pitcher's fastball sits 100.
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