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Possible extension for Lester
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Post by amfox1 on Jul 24, 2014 9:27:43 GMT -5
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Post by oilcansman on Jul 24, 2014 9:40:11 GMT -5
It's pretty clear the Red Sox aren't very interested in signing Jon Lester. They should trade him.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 24, 2014 10:09:38 GMT -5
I don't get the sense that any teams are desperate to win. The playoffs are such a crapshoot. Getting Lester and giving up very good cost-controlled talent doesn't seem to be a priority for anyone. Maybe, the two LA teams. You did see that little trade the As pulled off a couple weeks ago, right?
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Post by Guidas on Jul 24, 2014 10:12:46 GMT -5
"And starting on opening day 2015 for the New York Yankees, Jon Lester..."
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Post by Guidas on Jul 24, 2014 10:18:19 GMT -5
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jul 24, 2014 10:19:13 GMT -5
I don't get the sense that any teams are desperate to win. The playoffs are such a crapshoot. Getting Lester and giving up very good cost-controlled talent doesn't seem to be a priority for anyone. Maybe, the two LA teams. You did see that little trade the As pulled off a couple weeks ago, right? I assumed most people figured the A's aren't interested in Lester. Guess, I figured wrong.
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Post by amfox1 on Jul 24, 2014 10:32:12 GMT -5
It's pretty clear the Red Sox aren't very interested in signing Jon Lester. They should trade him. Whether they are or they aren't, it's pretty clear that Lester isn't giving the Red Sox a discount. They should trade him, if they can get more than the value of a comp pick, since it won't affect the negotiations.
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Post by moonstone2 on Jul 24, 2014 15:40:20 GMT -5
Here's the decision tree for the "should they trade Lester" question: The only way it makes sense to keep Lester is if they think they have a high chance of re-signing Lester and/or if they think the team is still in contention. I'm pretty pessimistic on both those fronts, so I'd trade Lester. Based on quotes from Farrell and Cherington post-ASB, it sounds like the front office is pretty realistic and will sell pieces if they think the 2014 team is dead in the water, so I'd think any hesitancy to trade Lester would mostly derive from optimism about the chances of re-signing him after the season. (The same decision tree can be applied to Uehara, btw, with similar results.) (Residual %chance of resigning a traded Lester) = (% Chance of resigning Lester if not traded). Cancel both out. Benefit of performance for rest of season = 0 Soooooo If the trade return is greater than a draft pick and they cannot sign him today for less than his projected free agent price, then they should trade him. Not the way it actually works though.
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Post by mgoetze on Jul 24, 2014 20:44:10 GMT -5
Geez, if they cared about those, they should be looking for an upgrade to the Wally Wave and "Don and Jerry talk about movies".
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jul 24, 2014 21:08:25 GMT -5
Its going to be really frustrating if we don't end up getting anything at the trade deadline and some of these other guys that clearly aren't coming back.
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Post by larrycook on Jul 24, 2014 22:08:37 GMT -5
Its going to be really frustrating if we don't end up getting anything at the trade deadline and some of these other guys that clearly aren't coming back. I do not know about frustrating. I think you gave to weigh the value of a prospect similar to kopech vs. what another team is willing to surrender for a rental player.
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Post by jmei on Jul 25, 2014 6:48:43 GMT -5
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jul 25, 2014 8:43:38 GMT -5
Its going to be really frustrating if we don't end up getting anything at the trade deadline and some of these other guys that clearly aren't coming back. I do not know about frustrating. I think you gave to weigh the value of a prospect similar to kopech vs. what another team is willing to surrender for a rental player. The evidence points to quite a bit judging by the past. The team acquiring lester could very likely re-sign him right away in which case they don't surrender a draft pick.
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Post by godot on Jul 25, 2014 13:30:29 GMT -5
A good explication of John Henry's approach to free agency was given by a Bloomberg business writer, Joshua Green, who is also a baseball and Lester fan. I have no reason to doubt his report, which to him suggest Lester is gone. What he does not go into is whether Henry's approach is counterproductive when it comes to baseball and wherever Henry, a non baseball person, is screwing up the baseball operations. Here is a passage from a recent story:
My contention in the profile is that professional baseball is becoming a lot like trading commodities futures—and that Henry’s history as a pioneering futures trader offers insight into how he approaches baseball. He seemed to agree. The big thing to understand about Henry-the-trader is that he is a contrarian with a deep, almost religious, faith in ignoring popular opinion. Here’s the unpublished passage I dug up from my notes, where Henry compared his trading strategy to baseball:
“The worse something felt, generally the more certain I was that I was right. The big trades we made money on, a lot of them didn’t make [outward] sense. The same thing is true in baseball: Fans often won’t like what turn out to be the best moves. If you’re a baseball fan and your [general manager] makes a trade that everybody loves, it’s probably not going to turn out well over the long term. It’s the same thing in trading: What looks good on the surface, below the surface often doesn’t look good.” (Emphasis added.)
STORY: How a Right-Wing Super PAC Could Hurt the Chicago Cubs I should stipulate that we weren’t talking specifically about Lester. Henry did say there were exceptions. And when we spoke, in mid-April, the Sox were expecting to contend for another World Series title, not to be mired in the American League East cellar. Maybe the team’s lousy season has changed the Jon Lester value proposition. Sox fans can hope so.
Still, Henry kept returning to a single theme: “Trends persist.” That’s true in commodities trading and baseball alike. Sure, there are exceptions. But the performance of star pitchers over 30—whether Johan Santana, C.C. Sabathia, or Brandon Webb—doesn’t leave much doubt about the direction of the trend, or why Henry might choose to do something deeply unpopular.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 25, 2014 13:35:48 GMT -5
A good explication of John Henry's approach to free agency was given by a Bloomberg business writer, Joshua Green, who is also a baseball and Lester fan. I have no reason to doubt his report, which to him suggest Lester is gone. What he does not go into is whether Henry's approach is counterproductive when it comes to baseball and wherever Henry, a non baseball person, is screwing up the baseball operations. Here is a passage from a recent story: My contention in the profile is that professional baseball is becoming a lot like trading commodities futures—and that Henry’s history as a pioneering futures trader offers insight into how he approaches baseball. He seemed to agree. The big thing to understand about Henry-the-trader is that he is a contrarian with a deep, almost religious, faith in ignoring popular opinion. Here’s the unpublished passage I dug up from my notes, where Henry compared his trading strategy to baseball: “The worse something felt, generally the more certain I was that I was right. The big trades we made money on, a lot of them didn’t make [outward] sense. The same thing is true in baseball: Fans often won’t like what turn out to be the best moves. If you’re a baseball fan and your [general manager] makes a trade that everybody loves, it’s probably not going to turn out well over the long term. It’s the same thing in trading: What looks good on the surface, below the surface often doesn’t look good.” (Emphasis added.) STORY: How a Right-Wing Super PAC Could Hurt the Chicago Cubs I should stipulate that we weren’t talking specifically about Lester. Henry did say there were exceptions. And when we spoke, in mid-April, the Sox were expecting to contend for another World Series title, not to be mired in the American League East cellar. Maybe the team’s lousy season has changed the Jon Lester value proposition. Sox fans can hope so. Still, Henry kept returning to a single theme: “Trends persist.” That’s true in commodities trading and baseball alike. Sure, there are exceptions. But the performance of star pitchers over 30—whether Johan Santana, C.C. Sabathia, or Brandon Webb—doesn’t leave much doubt about the direction of the trend, or why Henry might choose to do something deeply unpopular. The two bolded parts are a complete contradiction. If I read this right, you want the Red Sox to make more moves that you like and don't turn out well and less moves that are unpopular and wind up being the best moves.
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Post by godot on Jul 25, 2014 14:37:35 GMT -5
You complexly misread the story. It is descriptive and does not make any judgement on his approaches and beliefs. You are erroneously interpreting it to say something about what I may or may not believe. Besides, who has a crystal ball to say what you say . I am good at predicting the past; it is the future that stumps me.
His original article just shows how in Henry's own words, his stock market and hedge fund experience provides the model for the operations of the baseball team. BTW he made must of his money in a few good years and lost in many more. Familiar isn't it. Henry is betting against what he believes is an crazy free agency market that makes you pay more than what he believes a player maybe worth, which he determines with formulas. "Trends" also influence his thinking, including his belief that he can build within. It seems sound, but as they say, the devil is in the details and the particulars.
Good luck with using models to make decisions about realities, which are constantly in process and consisting of individual and particular events. Can you say Long Term Capital , the derivatives implosion and risk models in the Long Recession, and housing values always go up.
In baseball as in most business and organizations, you look first at management - its policies and personal- when trouble and failures arise. Of course, management will usually blame workers/ unions or bad luck and the "market".
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Post by burythehammer on Jul 25, 2014 14:45:06 GMT -5
Calling Henry a "non-baseball person" is so misleading and arguably disingenuous. If you made every owner in baseball a GM and gave them the same amount of money to work with, I'd take Henry over the vast majority of them.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 25, 2014 15:11:00 GMT -5
Calling Henry a "non-baseball person" is so misleading and arguably disingenuous. If you made every owner in baseball a GM and gave them the same amount of money to work with, I'd take Henry over the vast majority of them. Agree 100%. And as baseball owners go, he's quite good.
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Post by ctfisher on Jul 25, 2014 15:23:18 GMT -5
You complexly misread the story. It is descriptive and does not make any judgement on his approaches and beliefs. You are erroneously interpreting it to say something about what I may or may not believe. Besides, who has a crystal ball to say what you say . I am good at predicting the past; it is the future that stumps me. His original article just shows how in Henry's own words, his stock market and hedge fund experience provides the model for the operations of the baseball team. BTW he made must of his money in a few good years and lost in many more. Familiar isn't it. Henry is betting against what he believes is an crazy free agency market that makes you pay more than what he believes a player maybe worth, which he determines with formulas. "Trends" also influence his thinking, including his belief that he can build within. It seems sound, but as they say, the devil is in the details and the particulars. Good luck with using models to make decisions about realities, which are constantly in process and consisting of individual and particular events. Can you say Long Term Capital , the derivatives implosion and risk models in the Long Recession, and housing values always go up. In baseball as in most business and organizations, you look first at management - its policies and personal- when trouble and failures arise. Of course, management will usually blame workers/ unions or bad luck and the "market". This is pretty ridiculous. For one thing, Henry made a TON of money trading commodities futures, and doing it very well based off of mathematical models. He did it pretty consistently too from everything I've heard/read, and regardless, his "few good years" translated to baseball is 3 world series wins in 12 years and only 4 seasons missing the playoffs. That's good enough for me for now anyway. Finally, pointing to aberrant events in finance as a way to prove that models aren't useful is absurd. In fact, quant-based models would have greatly mitigated the financial crises you're referring to. There was no real mathematical basis for perpetually rising housing prices, that was a financial narrative that everyone bought into. Same deal with the tech bubble that led to the collapse of LTC. And models aren't the basis of everything they do- they just form a significant part of the analysis the team does on players and how they view the market for players, and they obviously have significant predictive value, even if the world doesn't unfold exactly as models predict it to. nobody lives by these models as gospel truths
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Post by azblue on Jul 25, 2014 15:27:54 GMT -5
Deleted. I need to fact check CBA.
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Post by godot on Jul 25, 2014 15:55:38 GMT -5
ctfisher, good stuff, but really don't think that they were "aberrant events" but more systemic. Minsky was cool, and Marxian based and Minsky theorist were warning of the long depression for some time and accurately mapped it out. Can't comment on the quants but was told otherwise. Regardless, that is beyond me. I wish it was true that "nobody lives by these models as gospel truth''. Whatever. the issue is whether models or methods used in one area or field of study can be applied accurately in other areas. Likewise, there is the issue of subjectivity. However, all this is beyond the scope here. Review again your consistency defense of JH, also whether he is operating the same way since Theo left, as well as his reactions to the Crawford et al signing's and maneuvers. Personally I am willing to wait another year before I reach any real conclusions, which means jack****. Mildly amused though by the John Henry love, and the knee jerk three series responses. Everything changes.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 25, 2014 16:19:35 GMT -5
Yep, wait another year, because anything less than 4 WS championships in 14 years is unacceptable.
For a so-called old man, do you remember the Yawkeys? Maybe letting Carlton Fisk go to the White Sox for basically a 2nd 14 year career?
Johny Henry is the best owner the Red Sox have had.
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Post by bbscouts on Jul 25, 2014 16:59:37 GMT -5
The Red Sox should have made their best offer to Lester by now unless they feel that giving long term deals to 30+ players is such a bad investment that they hope to push up the price for the Yankees and get their draft pick. Otherwise trade Lester for prospects now if a good deal can be found. The smaller market Reds gave Bailey a 6 year deal with an option and the Red Sox can certainly afford Lester with all the cost controlled players on the roster. If the Red Sox are going with the young player development model like the Cardinals and Braves use, then it makes sense not to spend big on 30+ yr/old players to keep all draft picks. Just sign players without qualifying offers unless a super-star signing like a young Manny Ramirez can be had.
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Post by godot on Jul 25, 2014 17:12:07 GMT -5
Yep, wait another year, because anything less than 4 WS championships in 14 years is unacceptable. For a so-called old man, do you remember the Yawkeys? Maybe letting Carlton Fisk go to the White Sox for basically a 2nd 14 year career? Johny Henry is the best owner the Red Sox have had. Yeh, remember the Fisk incident, thanks to Sullivan. Also remember trading Earl Wilson and the reasons why. Racist mfs. No doubt Yawkey had his major issues, especially toward the end. (Knew a few payers in the Sox system during the 50s. Wild stories,) But they had some contending teams with some real good players. To say John Henry is the best owner the Sox has had isn't saying much. Is it? You are comparing him to Yakwey and his estate ( wife and care takers). It is really lazy and stupid to argue that so and so is good because so and so was bad. No doubt that JH and company have done some real good things, but as they say sometimes your strengths are your liabilities. And the last I checked he was not a deity. It is not healthy to worship men nor yourself. Listening to some of you guys it is clear why they were able to sell the WMD in Iraq. By the way, I have some swamp land in Arkansas that I would like to sell. .
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 25, 2014 17:19:57 GMT -5
Yep, wait another year, because anything less than 4 WS championships in 14 years is unacceptable. For a so-called old man, do you remember the Yawkeys? Maybe letting Carlton Fisk go to the White Sox for basically a 2nd 14 year career? Johny Henry is the best owner the Red Sox have had. Yeh, remember the Fisk incident, thanks to Sullivan. Also remember trading Earl Wilson and the reasons why. Racist mfs. No doubt Yawkey had his major issues, especially toward the end. (Knew a few payers in the Sox system during the 50s. Wild stories,) But they had some contending teams with some real good players. To say John Henry is the best owner the Sox has had isn't saying much. Is it? You are comparing him to Yakwey and his estate ( wife and care takers). It is really lazy and stupid to argue that so and so is good because so and so was bad. No doubt that JH and company have done some real good things, but as they say sometimes your strengths are your liabilities. And the last I checked he was not a deity. It is not healthy to worship men nor yourself. Listening to some of you guys it is clear why they were able to sell the WMD in Iraq. By the way, I have some swamp land in Arkansas that I would like to sell. . I'm not worshiping anyone. I'm looking at an owner that has 3 WS in 12 years after thinking I'd never see them ever win 1 as a glass half full, not half empty. Being raised by a Catholic mom, I often got the "just be glad you're not a starving kid in China" treatment. I'm glad we have an owner like John Henry over all others in Red Sox history and most around the league. Nope, not perfect. But good enough.
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