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Baseball America Red Sox Top 10 Prospects
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Post by zil on Dec 24, 2013 0:29:57 GMT -5
Why? He's 100% hope and dream at this point, coming off a (relatively speaking) subpar high school(!) campaign, which puts him in no man's land. Move the needle up to 5% pro results, at least in terms of improved scouting reports, and I think it would be a different story. Given his pedigree you'd expect he'd be in the top 30 or at least in consideration. Yes he could get better, but it doesn't sound like he's off to a very good start. He hardly played after getting drafted. Last year was exclusively about getting him acclimated to life in professional baseball. It is way, way, way too early to be worried about Denney.
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Post by moonstone2 on Dec 24, 2013 4:04:15 GMT -5
I disagree.
The list isn't just based on GCL performance it's based on the instructional league as well. The top 30 isn't that high a bar. Delois Guerrera made it. Rafael Devers is in the 18-22 range with some wanting to push him higher and he hasn't played.
Denney is supposed to be a near first round pick. A guy like that should crack the top 30. What is very clear is that evaluators aren't seeing talent that matches the pedigree.
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Post by bluechip on Dec 24, 2013 6:01:37 GMT -5
I disagree. The list isn't just based on GCL performance it's based on the instructional league as well. The top 30 isn't that high a bar. Delois Guerrera made it. Rafael Devers is in the 18-22 range with some wanting to push him higher and he hasn't played. Denney is supposed to be a near first round pick. A guy like that should crack the top 30. What is very clear is that evaluators aren't seeing talent that matches the pedigree. While I agree with you mostly, in that the top draft picks will make most top 30s. If memory serves, there aren't a ton of guys drafted after the first couple of rounds who are included in the BA top thirty. I could be wrong, but I don't remember seeing many guys drafted after round 2 in the prospect book. Was Lester top 30 after the draft (and he was a second round guy)? I don't remember/have the copy of that book handy at the moment.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 24, 2013 6:39:17 GMT -5
I disagree. The list isn't just based on GCL performance it's based on the instructional league as well. The top 30 isn't that high a bar. Delois Guerrera made it. Rafael Devers is in the 18-22 range with some wanting to push him higher and he hasn't played. Denney is supposed to be a near first round pick. A guy like that should crack the top 30. What is very clear is that evaluators aren't seeing talent that matches the pedigree. While I agree with you mostly, in that the top draft picks will make most top 30s. If memory serves, there aren't a ton of guys drafted after the first couple of rounds who are included in the BA top thirty. I could be wrong, but I don't remember seeing many guys drafted after round 2 in the prospect book. Was Lester top 30 after the draft (and he was a second round guy)? I don't remember/have the copy of that book handy at the moment. I posted about this two pages back.
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Post by moonstone2 on Dec 24, 2013 7:20:27 GMT -5
Bluechip-
I am pretty sure that Lester was in the top 30 the winter after he was drafted. Stank is in this year.
Edit: He was actually ranked 8th.
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Post by raftsox on Dec 24, 2013 7:58:28 GMT -5
Why the hissy fit about where Denney is ranked? It's pretty obvious that he's a project and we won't know if he was a good draft pick for another 5 years, at least.
ADD: Lester was 8th in an organization that had 2 top 100 prospects in 2002. This year's team could have a legitimate 11.
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Dec 24, 2013 8:05:04 GMT -5
Why the hissy fit about where Denney is ranked? It's pretty obvious that he's a project and we won't know if he was a good draft pick for another 5 years, at least. This. He dropped in the draft as there were many teams which didn't see the talent matching his bonus demands. Over the next five years we will likely be debating whether Vasquez or Swihart is a better catcher and Denney may be long forgotten. Right now we probably have the deepest and most talented player development system in Red Sox history which we should sit back and enjoy while we still have them.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Dec 24, 2013 8:15:54 GMT -5
Why the hissy fit about where Denney is ranked? It's pretty obvious that he's a project and we won't know if he was a good draft pick for another 5 years, at least. ADD: Lester was 8th in an organization that had 2 top 100 prospects in 2002. This year's team could have a legitimate 11. Is anyone really having a hissy fit? I think it is reasonable to be disappointed with some of the early reports on Denney. He still has tremendous upside and it is far too early to write him off, but I would have hoped for more encouraging early reports at this point.
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Post by brendan98 on Dec 24, 2013 9:50:03 GMT -5
Honestly, how much stock should anyone really put into a HS draftees abbreviated 1st season following them being drafted and signed. Think about all of the other adjustments that these kids are making that, I have to imagine are for some of these kids far more difficult than playing baseball.
Also, I am pretty sure I remember reading something about Denney saying something to the effect of --- he got into some bad habits approach wise in his HS senior season, resulting from teams pitching around him, and was working on getting his approach back. This could certainly be part of any poor scouting looks that he might have gotten in his time in the GCL.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Dec 24, 2013 10:37:41 GMT -5
Honestly, how much stock should anyone really put into a HS draftees abbreviated 1st season following them being drafted and signed. Think about all of the other adjustments that these kids are making that, I have to imagine are for some of these kids far more difficult than playing baseball. Also, I am pretty sure I remember reading something about Denney saying something to the effect of --- he got into some bad habits approach wise in his HS senior season, resulting from teams pitching around him, and was working on getting his approach back. This could certainly be part of any poor scouting looks that he might have gotten in his time in the GCL. Absolutely, and no one is writing him off or putting significant stock in his performance this year. Over the time I've been following prospects there is a certain level of buzz that comes from many high-bonus draftees by this point. Though not a draft pick, Rafael Devers is a guy getting a lot of positive buzz right now. I remember guys like Rizzo, Kelly, Lars, and Reddick getting a good amount of positive buzz. Denney's has been more negative than I would have hoped. Now it is still early and that could change quickly. A couple positive reports in spring training and this all changes.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 24, 2013 10:57:19 GMT -5
Yeah, I don't think anyone is writing him off at all.
I think the point is that some folks are disappointed that not only was he not ranked, but that Alex said that not a single person even tried to make the argument to him, and this after he had been ranked as a potential first-round talent. This is fair. I know I was at least taken a bit aback.
There is a difference between ignoring first-season stats and a guy getting zero love whatsoever during this process. Even Brentz, who was an abomination at the plate after being drafted, was ranked 17th in an admittedly weaker, but still pretty good, system.
I think the upshot is that the pre-draft rankings and reports were off here, more than anything. It's not a reason to write the guy off or anything, but again, disappointment is a reasonable response.
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Post by moonstone2 on Dec 24, 2013 14:17:19 GMT -5
Yeah, I don't think anyone is writing him off at all. I think the point is that some folks are disappointed that not only was he not ranked, but that Alex said that not a single person even tried to make the argument to him, and this after he had been ranked as a potential first-round talent. This is fair. I know I was at least taken a bit aback. There is a difference between ignoring first-season stats and a guy getting zero love whatsoever during this process. Even Brentz, who was an abomination at the plate after being drafted, was ranked 17th in an admittedly weaker, but still pretty good, system. I think the upshot is that the pre-draft rankings and reports were off here, more than anything. It's not a reason to write the guy off or anything, but again, disappointment is a reasonable response. Yeah what Chris said. Alex's comment on Denney was the most surprising thing that he said on the negative side about any of the prospects. I knew Denney was raw but I didn't know he was as far back as Alex said he was. Chris do you think you could ask Alex for some more color on this? What's the issue or issues?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 3, 2014 21:35:07 GMT -5
Ben Badler tweet.... Red Sox ended up with six prospects in my Top 50, most of any team. Full list, 900+ reports in the Prospect Handbook. t.co/0b7OnSTUoUI am assuming this is specific to this one analyst not to BA in general but I might be wrong. This is more top heavy than any other I have seen
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Post by patrmac04 on Jan 3, 2014 21:51:35 GMT -5
Ben Badler tweet.... Red Sox ended up with six prospects in my Top 50, most of any team. Full list, 900+ reports in the Prospect Handbook. t.co/0b7OnSTUoUI am assuming this is specific to this one analyst not to BA in general but I might be wrong. This is more top heavy than any other I have seen That link just goes through to a pitch to buy the book. Does anyone actually know what prospects ended up in the top 50 and what positions they were? Since the link was to buy their handbook, I have to assume the tweet was about the official published list that they sell. I don't see how you concluded it being one analyst and not BA.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 3, 2014 22:07:44 GMT -5
He used the words "my Top 50" and BA usually makes a top 100. They could conceivably have a new feature with various analysts giving their personal top 50.
ADD: plus Callis refereed to several prospects being clustered in the 47 to 58 range in the Speier podcast.
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Post by bigpupp on Jan 3, 2014 22:32:16 GMT -5
He used the words " my Top 50" and BA usually makes a top 100. They could conceivably have a new feature with various analysts giving their personal top 50. ADD: plus Callis refereed to several prospects being clustered in the 47 to 58 range in the Speier podcast. Each contributer has done a top 50 in the prospect handbook for as long as I can remember.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 3, 2014 22:39:54 GMT -5
Ah OK, I don't get the handbook so that pretty much confirms it.
As a point of reference, Badler is my favorite analyst but in the international not domestic markets.
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Post by patrmac04 on Jan 4, 2014 1:51:05 GMT -5
He used the words " my Top 50" and BA usually makes a top 100. They could conceivably have a new feature with various analysts giving their personal top 50. ADD: plus Callis refereed to several prospects being clustered in the 47 to 58 range in the Speier podcast. Each contributer has done a top 50 in the prospect handbook for as long as I can remember. Thank you for clarifying, I do not subscribe to the handbook and appreciate the feedback.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 4, 2014 3:01:45 GMT -5
Last year only two of the four Handbook contributors had a team with as many as four guys in the Top 50 (the #1 ranked Cardinals system with Taveras, Shelby Miller, Carlos Martinez, and, in 2 of the 4 lists, Rosenthal). The historic 2011 Royals crew had five of their total nine guys (all in the top 30 of three lists). Six guys in the top 50 of anyone's list appears to be In. Sane.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 4, 2014 3:39:39 GMT -5
I'm thinking next year is likely to be even more insane. I think we have so many prospects in a position to break out that it will likely outnumber the prospects that graduate or take a step back.
ADD: When I look at the talent that will be in Greenville this coming year, I can't help but think that we are poised for two more years of explosive player development. As bad as they were this year, they are stacked. I didn't realize just how stacked until we traded a guy I wasn't even familiar with for Badenhop. I am aware of the piggyback pitching pattern but I still think they are going to find difficulty finding innings.
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Post by amfox1 on Jan 4, 2014 8:37:55 GMT -5
Listened to the BA AL East podcast, where they draft non-#1 prospects (no Xander, A.Sanchez, G.Sanchez, Bundy, Odorizzi):
(1. Gausman) 2. Owens 3. Bradley (4. E.Rodriguez) (5. Stroman) 6. Swihart 7. Betts (8. Schoop) (9. Harvey) 10. Cecchini 11. Barnes (12. Guerreri) 13. Ball (14. M.Williams)
Note: neither of the podcasters liked Webster because of his lack of control. Both thought there isn't much difference between #4 (Webster) and #11 (Ranaudo) in the system.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Jan 4, 2014 8:56:32 GMT -5
Listened to the BA AL East podcast, where they draft non-#1 prospects (no Xander, A.Sanchez, G.Sanchez, Bundy, Odorizzi): (1. Gausman) 2. Owens 3. Bradley (4. E.Rodriguez) (5. Stroman) 6. Swihart 7. Betts (8. Schoop) (9. Harvey) 10. Cecchini 11. Barnes (12. Guerreri) 13. Ball (14. M.Williams) Note: neither of the podcasters liked Webster because of his lack of control. Both thought there isn't much difference between #4 (Webster) and #11 (Ranaudo) in the system. Good stuff. By team: Red Sox: 7 Orioles: 4 Blue Jays: 1 Rays: 1 Yankees: 1
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Post by chavopepe2 on Jan 4, 2014 9:44:16 GMT -5
I'm thinking next year is likely to be even more insane. I think we have so many prospects in a position to break out that it will likely outnumber the prospects that graduate or take a step back. ADD: When I look at the talent that will be in Greenville this coming year, I can't help but think that we are poised for two more years of explosive player development. As bad as they were this year, they are stacked. I didn't realize just how stacked until we traded a guy I wasn't even familiar with for Badenhop. I am aware of the piggyback pitching pattern but I still think they are going to find difficulty finding innings. I don't see it. If the Sox system is as good next year as it is this year it will be because guys currently in the high minors take a big step forward. Specifically Betts, Swihart, Owens, and Cecchini. As much as I like those guys, I think it is entirely possible they go in the wrong direction this year (though I hope not).I think the Red Sox system below AA is only about average. Ball and Margot could step into elite territory, but I don't see anyone else that could take that leap (outside of maybe Devers, but I think we're a year or two early). I'm just not sold on the (Callahan, Mercedes, Diaz, Buttrey, Kukuk, McGrath) group. Maybe I'm overly pessimistic, but I don't love the low-minors talent. I think the last couple of drafts have been mediocre - not that they've drafted poorly, but the talent level in both drafts was lacking and the new rules make it hard to overcome that by spending more.
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Post by bluechip on Jan 4, 2014 10:10:13 GMT -5
I'm thinking next year is likely to be even more insane. I think we have so many prospects in a position to break out that it will likely outnumber the prospects that graduate or take a step back. ADD: When I look at the talent that will be in Greenville this coming year, I can't help but think that we are poised for two more years of explosive player development. As bad as they were this year, they are stacked. I didn't realize just how stacked until we traded a guy I wasn't even familiar with for Badenhop. I am aware of the piggyback pitching pattern but I still think they are going to find difficulty finding innings. Well while the quantity of prospects on the top prospect lists might increase, the system will be weakened by the graduation of Xander. There is no one who really has a chance to jump up to Xander's level.
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Post by JackieWilsonsaid on Jan 4, 2014 11:09:04 GMT -5
I think I agree the spirit of what you are saying, as Xander is a unique talent, but I do think it is possible for Any of the next wave of prospects to leap into a close to Elite level next year. This is what is so intriguing about where the org is.
Betts for example could add some pop or go on a obp/ba run that would place him near elite.
With Owens at his size, he could very well add a couple mph and be considered a top prospect.
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