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Baseball America Red Sox Top 10 Prospects
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Dec 20, 2013 14:16:03 GMT -5
I have been very disappointed in the last few Red Sox drafts. I understand that the new CBA draft rules and spending limits have prevented the Red Sox from doing what they did in 2010 (Brentz, Ranaudo, Workman, Coyle, Cecchini, Ramos, Price, Couch) and 2011 (Barnes, Swihart, Owens, Bradley, Jerez, Betts, Kukuk) without suffering the consequences of paying a luxury tax and losing picks, but some team is eventually going to choose the buck the system and I hope that the Red Sox are the first to do so. If the Red Sox chose to ignore the draft rules in 2012, they still could have signed Marrero, Johnson, Light, Callahan, and Buttrey, and then they could have scooped-up all of the late-round players with first-round talent like Alex Bregman (2013 College Baseball Freshman of the Year and likely Top 10 pick in 2015) and Carson Fulmer and Xavier Turner. Their first-round pick in 2013 would have been protected anyways, so they still would have gotten Trey Ball plus they could have ignored the rules again and signed Ryan Boldt and Jordan Sheffield (and maybe thrown some money at Chris Okey, Jeremy Martinez, or Keegan Thompson with later picks) and lose some early picks in 2014. The net result is that you would end up with more top-tier talent. The Red Sox minor league depth right now is largely due to what they did in 2010 and 2011. If they want to maintain this position of prospect strength, they need to be willing to pay the luxury tax and surrender some early picks in order to really cash-in on hard to sign prospects. If you just run the numbers I absolutely agree, especially in one year bursts every once in a while. But it is a collusive environment effectively, among the owners and none of them wants to be ostracized over it. They effectively police themselves and there will be a price to pay at some point for the black sheep.
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Post by ibsmith85 on Dec 20, 2013 14:52:03 GMT -5
I understand that a lot of the lack of enthusiasm for Jon Denney can be attributed to his lackluster 26 game debut in the GCL, but I wonder how much his make-up and immaturity might also contribute to his middling prospect status and his precipitous drop in the draft. I've followed him on twitter since he was drafted by the Red Sox and a lot of his tweets are along the lines of "woe is me" teenage drama. I'm curious how much of that is him not recognizing that he is now a public figure or if he just isn't ready for the pressure and expectations of being a professional athlete. Maybe I'm making more out of this small glimpse of Denney, but I think that he may have benefited from the maturing experience of being a student athlete in college and not being immediately thrown into the reality of the professional sports world. So, he's acting like a high school kid. I'm not worried about that at all. Call me when he's arrested for possession of cocaine (Jon Egan), gets punched out by at least two teammates (Jason Place) or has other, far worse maturity issues (there's at least one college draftee, still in the system, who had major issues at first that I believe have been dealt with). Or gets a DUI doing 111mph in a 45 zone, evading police, crashing through a residential area, and presenting his CC instead of his license when asked for ID... Oh wait, you get away with that too... Drake Britton Arrest VideoIm not sure if the link had been posted previously, but this is the first I had heard of it. Unfortunately Britton's audio in the tape is muted per request of his attorney.
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Post by mainesox on Dec 20, 2013 15:04:26 GMT -5
So, he's acting like a high school kid. I'm not worried about that at all. Call me when he's arrested for possession of cocaine (Jon Egan), gets punched out by at least two teammates (Jason Place) or has other, far worse maturity issues (there's at least one college draftee, still in the system, who had major issues at first that I believe have been dealt with). Or gets a DUI doing 111mph in a 45 zone, evading police, crashing through a residential area, and presenting his CC instead of his license when asked for ID... Oh wait, you get away with that too... Drake Britton Arrest VideoIm not sure if the link had been posted previously, but this is the first I had heard of it. Unfortunately Britton's audio in the tape is muted per request of his attorney. Or the old stand by, stealing a bunch of laptops from a middle school so you can sell them.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 20, 2013 15:18:50 GMT -5
I think teams need to be given a pass for the 2012 draft as they were figuring things out.
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Post by stevedillard on Dec 20, 2013 15:38:13 GMT -5
And Alex Speier did say that some of the folks he spoke to (even from other teams) were OK with Johnson and Marrero, and Light's hamstring was misdiagnosed, so injury might provide a pass.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Dec 20, 2013 16:19:20 GMT -5
Not that I have any interest in reigniting previous debates on this board, but it should also be noted that the 2012 class was uninspiring. My guess is there are a lot of teams who had not so stellar 2012 drafts. Heck we at least 2 guys who project to be league average contributors within 2-3 years. That is a whole lot more than most teams can say.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Dec 20, 2013 16:36:53 GMT -5
More good things on Devers... Could have been considered a top 10 pick in the upcoming draft... This draft is pretty loaded especially in tha range.... Guiguitty....This info brought to you by the SP podcast.
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
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Post by steveofbradenton on Dec 20, 2013 16:59:55 GMT -5
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Post by mainesox on Dec 20, 2013 18:09:25 GMT -5
Not that I have any interest in reigniting previous debates on this board, but it should also be noted that the 2012 class was uninspiring. My guess is there are a lot of teams who had not so stellar 2012 drafts. Heck we at least 2 guys who project to be league average contributors within 2-3 years. That is a whole lot more than most teams can say. Any draft where you end up with two major leaguers is a success in my book. I still believe the only reason the 2012 draft gets so much crap is because it wasn't exciting enough for people, there wasn't that guy that people could really dream on, but I'm more than fine with a guy who pretty easily projects as a back end starter and has a floor of a late inning reliever, and a guy who pretty easily projects as a big league short stop, and has a floor of a utility guy; there was a lot more certainty in that draft than most.
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Post by zil on Dec 20, 2013 18:21:50 GMT -5
Not that I have any interest in reigniting previous debates on this board, but it should also be noted that the 2012 class was uninspiring. My guess is there are a lot of teams who had not so stellar 2012 drafts. Heck we at least 2 guys who project to be league average contributors within 2-3 years. That is a whole lot more than most teams can say. Any draft where you end up with two major leaguers is a success in my book. I still believe the only reason the 2012 draft gets so much crap is because it wasn't exciting enough for people, there wasn't that guy that people could really dream on, but I'm more than fine with a guy who pretty easily projects as a back end starter and has a floor of a late inning reliever, and a guy who pretty easily projects as a big league short stop, and has a floor of a utility guy; there was a lot more certainty in that draft than most. It doesn't help that it came right after the 2011 draft, which makes for a pretty jarring juxtaposition even when you account for the change in CBAs. That draft has a decent shot at turning out as our best in recent memory.
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Post by moonstone2 on Dec 20, 2013 18:23:17 GMT -5
So, he's acting like a high school kid. I'm not worried about that at all. Call me when he's arrested for possession of cocaine (Jon Egan), gets punched out by at least two teammates (Jason Place) or has other, far worse maturity issues (there's at least one college draftee, still in the system, who had major issues at first that I believe have been dealt with). I agree that it doesn't mean that we should write-off Jon Denney, I'm just curious if it helps to explain why he slipped in the draft and isn't quite ready for prime-(Lowell)-time. Denney from what I have heard is very raw. That's probably why he slipped in the draft. He's a good prospect but doesn't have the polish that McGuire and Cuifo have and hence teams weren't comfortable spending a first round pick on him. I would think there is a good chance that he's not ready to go to Greenville in April. That's not necessarily a bad thing as he could easily end up ahead of those guys even though he's currently behind.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 20, 2013 20:16:34 GMT -5
Listened to the podcast. Great stuff. I really like Speier so this isn't a real dug at him... When I was listening to him talk about certain guys floors I thought he was talking crazy. Mostly Owens and Swithart. Maybe I just don't know what other people think a floor is but he had Swithar's floor as an above average starter. And he had Owens floor a lot higher then I think is realistic. I forget exactly what he said now since I ate dinner between, but I think it was a mid rotation starter.
I don't know, but for me it's crazy talk to project an A ball catcher with a floor of a over average starter and a guy with control issues like Owens with that type of floor as well. We're talking floor, not projection. Am I the only one who felt this way listening to it?
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Post by wskeleton76 on Dec 20, 2013 21:54:25 GMT -5
Listened to the podcast. Great stuff. I really like Speier so this isn't a real dug at him... When I was listening to him talk about certain guys floors I thought he was talking crazy. Mostly Owens and Swithart. Maybe I just don't know what other people think a floor is but he had Swithar's floor as an above average starter. And he had Owens floor a lot higher then I think is realistic. I forget exactly what he said now since I ate dinner between, but I think it was a mid rotation starter. I don't know, but for me it's crazy talk to project an A ball catcher with a floor of a over average starter and a guy with control issues like Owens with that type of floor as well. We're talking floor, not projection. Am I the only one who felt this way listening to it? Agree. While Speier's scouting report is good he sounds too much of redsox prospect lover in chatting and potcasting. I decided to take his definition of floor as realistic projection.
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Post by GyIantosca on Dec 22, 2013 16:56:32 GMT -5
I always wondered about Vitek. Does anyone know what was the best case senario regarding him? If he was panning out right now. This kid came on the scene late, he was a late bloomer correct? I know no matter how good the system is you have misses.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 22, 2013 21:35:51 GMT -5
If iirc, he was a potential Howey Kendrick type. Never was supposed to have much pop, but a good hitter for average. Never was a high ceiling guy, but was supposed to have a better floor then he does.
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Post by moonstone2 on Dec 23, 2013 7:30:08 GMT -5
I thought there was an interesting comment RE: Denney..... "not in top 30 and not a lot of sentiment (from evaluators/organization), to be in top 30)." That's a little disturbing to hear about a guy that is less than a year from being a bonus baby.
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Post by larrycook on Dec 23, 2013 8:48:13 GMT -5
Since we are going to be picking in the late 20's for the next several seasons, how do the Sox draft their next "ace" pitcher?
Maybe we can use one of our early picks to sign a potential power hitter?
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Post by elguapo on Dec 23, 2013 10:39:54 GMT -5
I thought there was an interesting comment RE: Denney..... "not in top 30 and not a lot of sentiment (from evaluators/organization), to be in top 30)." That's a little disturbing to hear about a guy that is less than a year from being a bonus baby. Why? He's 100% hope and dream at this point, coming off a (relatively speaking) subpar high school(!) campaign, which puts him in no man's land. Move the needle up to 5% pro results, at least in terms of improved scouting reports, and I think it would be a different story.
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Post by charliezink16 on Dec 23, 2013 11:10:54 GMT -5
Since we are going to be picking in the late 20's for the next several seasons, how do the Sox draft their next "ace" pitcher? Maybe we can use one of our early picks to sign a potential power hitter? They sign a dirtbag manager, proceed to tank, trade away multiple superstars, secure the #7 pick, and pick whichever pitcher has the most upside.
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Post by raftsox on Dec 23, 2013 11:33:09 GMT -5
Since we are going to be picking in the late 20's for the next several seasons, how do the Sox draft their next "ace" pitcher? Maybe we can use one of our early picks to sign a potential power hitter? Here is the list of starting pitchers drafted by the Red Sox in the last 11 years who have made the majors. Lester, 2nd round Buchholz, 1Sup round Masterson, 2nd round Justin Grimm, 13th round (unsigned) Casey Kelly, 1st round (30th pick) Workman, 2nd round I don't necessarily know what your definition of "ace" is, but you could do the same exercise for every team in baseball and see similar results. Hell, having a high pick doesn't mean anything; look at Hochevar or my all-time favorite#1 pick: Matt Bush, for example. Actually, that 2004 draft is a good illustration of why you shouldn't evaluate a draft until many years later. Maybe half of the 1st round picks have made the majors, but only Verlander, Jared Weaver, Stephen Drew and Billy Butler have had both lengthy and positive careers. Round 2 includes Yovanni Gallardo, Dustin Pedroia, Hunter Pence and Jason Vargas. After that is a whole bunch of garbage.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 23, 2013 12:51:31 GMT -5
Ben Badler @benbadler How strong is the Red Sox farm system? All of their Top 10 prospects have a legitimate shot to crack the BA Top 100: bit.ly/JrLPiUInteresting. I would guess the top 7 all make it with Workman, Barnes, and (to a lesser extent) Ball in the conversation. There's no way that a guy who has had three terrific starts in MLB and then pitched the 8th inning of the clinching WS game should not be a Top 100 prospect. His floor is just way too high. Well, I actually think that means we have 11 legitimate top 100 candidates (I'm sure there are scouts who still have Ranaudo ahead of Barnes). And in fact, Vazquez is someone who would make most preliminary lists as well. 2006 Dodgers and 2011 Royals are the only clubs to ever have 9. 7 Chad Billingsley 19 Andy LaRoche 26 Joel Guzman 42 Russell Martin 55 Scott Elbert 63 Jonathan Broxton 82 Blake DeWitt 89 Andre Ethier 96 Matt Kemp 8 Eric Hosmer 9 Mike Moustakas 10 Wil Myers 18 John Lamb 19 Mike Montgomery 51 Christian Colon 68 Danny Duffy 69 Jake Odorizzi 83 Chris Dwyer
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Dec 23, 2013 14:06:27 GMT -5
Since we are going to be picking in the late 20's for the next several seasons, how do the Sox draft their next "ace" pitcher? Maybe we can use one of our early picks to sign a potential power hitter? Here is the list of starting pitchers drafted by the Red Sox in the last 11 years who have made the majors. Lester, 2nd round Buchholz, 1Sup round Masterson, 2nd round Justin Grimm, 13th round (unsigned) Casey Kelly, 1st round (30th pick) Workman, 2nd round … Plus Abe Alvarez (1 mlb start at age 21), Kris Johnson (1 mlb start), Daniel Bard (some memorable starts!), Michael Bowden (2 mlb starts), Keil Weiland (8 starts), Stephen Fife (15 starts); both most of them and a few others have had a number of relief appearances, including Papelbon, Meredith, Hagadone, Britton, Wilson. And of course we expect Ranaudo and Owens and Barnes and someday Ball and maybe some others to get some starts.
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Post by raftsox on Dec 23, 2013 15:10:21 GMT -5
Here is the list of starting pitchers drafted by the Red Sox in the last 11 years who have made the majors. Lester, 2nd round Buchholz, 1Sup round Masterson, 2nd round Justin Grimm, 13th round (unsigned) Casey Kelly, 1st round (30th pick) Workman, 2nd round … Plus Abe Alvarez (1 mlb start at age 21), Kris Johnson (1 mlb start), Daniel Bard (some memorable starts!), Michael Bowden (2 mlb starts), Keil Weiland (8 starts), Stephen Fife (15 starts); both most of them and a few others have had a number of relief appearances, including Papelbon, Meredith, Hagadone, Britton, Wilson. And of course we expect Ranaudo and Owens and Barnes and someday Ball and maybe some others to get some starts. True. I left those starters out who amounted to nothing or are no longer at the MLB level.
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Post by joshv02 on Dec 23, 2013 18:30:20 GMT -5
Nick Tepesch may be the best of the non- Lester/Buch/Masterson lot named (though not named).
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Post by moonstone2 on Dec 23, 2013 21:35:30 GMT -5
I thought there was an interesting comment RE: Denney..... "not in top 30 and not a lot of sentiment (from evaluators/organization), to be in top 30)." That's a little disturbing to hear about a guy that is less than a year from being a bonus baby. Why? He's 100% hope and dream at this point, coming off a (relatively speaking) subpar high school(!) campaign, which puts him in no man's land. Move the needle up to 5% pro results, at least in terms of improved scouting reports, and I think it would be a different story. Given his pedigree you'd expect he'd be in the top 30 or at least in consideration. Yes he could get better, but it doesn't sound like he's off to a very good start.
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