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2014 Official Spring Training Thread
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Post by burythehammer on Mar 29, 2014 6:02:29 GMT -5
this is the second straight year the red sox overreact to a spring training performance by Jackie Bradley Yup. Although I'm skeptical that the actual internal reason in either year had much to do with his ST numbers.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Mar 29, 2014 6:47:25 GMT -5
this is the second straight year the red sox overreact to a spring training performance by Jackie Bradley Yup. Although I'm skeptical that the actual internal reason in either year had much to do with his ST numbers. The only spring training performance that mattered was Grady Sizemore's.
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 29, 2014 6:56:43 GMT -5
The Red Sox regular season record last year was 97-65 for a winning % of .599. There were 50 games where Nava played right field and only right field. The Red Sox were 30-20 in those games for a winning % of .600. Virtually, the exact same winning % as when he didn't play right field. I think it's fair to say that if Nava was playing right field it was due to an injured lineup so it was a worse lineup than normal, yet they still managed the same exact winning percentage. There was a stretch from May 17 - May 30 where the Sox had 14 straight games, 13 of which Nava started in RF and they went 9-4. It was a relatively weak schedule (@minn, @ CWS, vs CLE, vs PHI) , but results are results. There were 2 games where Nava PH then played RF and they were 0-2 in those games. He only got the one plate appearance in each game so they are probably meaningless. There were 12 games in which he played both LF and RF and the team was 7-5 in those games. There were 4 games where he played 1b and RF and they were 2-2 in those games. Really the only games that really matter for this exercise are the 50 games he truly played RF and the team wasn't any worse off record wise during this 50 game period. Wow, great new stat! "Right-fielder wins." Should sweep through the stat world. No one said it was a stat or a corollary. People are freaking out about how the team will do with Nava playing significant time in RF or CF so I looked up how it affected them last year since the WS win and best Reg season record aren't evidence enough.
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Post by hsc85 on Mar 29, 2014 7:01:31 GMT -5
I agree with both cases being an over reaction. However I am not saying that the Red Sox are always adverse to playing younger players. I am saying that Farrell is adverse to having Bradley as his CF. He may not make 100% of the roster decisions but he makes the lineup card. When Bradley flamed out last April, I think Farrell lost all confidence that he would be his CF unless the organization did not give him a choice. I think he still feels that way. Unless forced by injury or trade Bradley will be in Pawtucket all year. It will be a lost year of development. Maybe the Sox can trade him for a back up LF/DH/1B that will be on the major league roster next year.
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 29, 2014 7:10:19 GMT -5
I agree with both cases being an over reaction. However I am not saying that the Red Sox are always adverse to playing younger players. I am saying that Farrell is adverse to having Bradley as his CF. He may not make 100% of the roster decisions but he makes the lineup card. When Bradley flamed out last April, I think Farrell lost all confidence that he would be his CF unless the organization did not give him a choice. I think he still feels that way. Unless forced by injury or trade Bradley will be in Pawtucket all year. It will be a lost year of development. Maybe the Sox can trade him for a back up LF/DH/1B that will be on the major league roster next year. Are you into holistic heeling?
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 29, 2014 8:05:59 GMT -5
The Red Sox regular season record last year was 97-65 for a winning % of .599. There were 50 games where Nava played right field and only right field. The Red Sox were 30-20 in those games for a winning % of .600. Virtually, the exact same winning % as when he didn't play right field. I think it's fair to say that if Nava was playing right field it was due to an injured lineup so it was a worse lineup than normal, yet they still managed the same exact winning percentage. There was a stretch from May 17 - May 30 where the Sox had 14 straight games, 13 of which Nava started in RF and they went 9-4. It was a relatively weak schedule (@minn, @ CWS, vs CLE, vs PHI) , but results are results. There were 2 games where Nava PH then played RF and they were 0-2 in those games. He only got the one plate appearance in each game so they are probably meaningless. There were 12 games in which he played both LF and RF and the team was 7-5 in those games. There were 4 games where he played 1b and RF and they were 2-2 in those games. Really the only games that really matter for this exercise are the 50 games he truly played RF and the team wasn't any worse off record wise during this 50 game period. How does that mean in any possible way that it was a good decision? They did not go .600 in those games because of Nava. They covered for him. Maybe they aren't quite as good this year and that doesn't happen. If the Sox won the WS with Jeter as their shortstop last season, it doesn't mean he's a good choice to be shortstop. Nava is not a good right fielder and we should probably have one for Fenway to give us more of a chance of winning - especially when he's forced to play there against LHP where he's below a replacement level player.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Mar 29, 2014 8:16:38 GMT -5
Bradley played as long as there was a roster spot. With Ortiz back, he was sent down. Then he rode the shuttle late into the season. That amounted to a herky-jerky 100+ PAs.
What he needs, what all talented young players need, is to be given a position and a chance to play it full time. Oakland does that all the time, Boston much less often. The navel gazing of the bulk of the Boston media is a constant distraction, one that serves no useful purpose excerpt to sell eyeballs and earbuds for the outlets. They hurt the team, and they don't even care whether they're right. Going back over last year's senseless attacks against players and management, and the ridiculous predictions many of them threw out there, is disgusting and laughable. All they care about is buzz. But they're there, so they have to be dealt with. Sizemore gets to live with them inside his shirt, for now. Bradley gets fulltime play in AAA.
I understand your dismay. Bradley is a better outfielder than Sizemore. He has a much better arm, and his exceptional reads have him making plays that are a stretch for other CFs. He would come along nicely offensively given time I believe.
I don't think the Sox knew what to expect when they sent their therapist/troubleshooter out to observe Sizemore. Now they see an opportunity and they've grabbed it. The thing to keep in mind is that its a very long season. The regular outfielders average 32 years old, the RF missed 40 games last year, and the CF hasn't played in over two years thanks to a cascade of injuries. There will be dozens of games and hundreds of PAs for Bradley. But yeah, I wish they were willing to put him out there and leave him out there.
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Post by James Dunne on Mar 29, 2014 8:31:02 GMT -5
Daniel Nava hit .303/.385/.445 in 2013. There are no backup right fielders that can hit .303/.385/.445 over a full season. His wOBA in 2013 was .366. For comparisons sake, Giancarlo Stanton's was .368, and Stanton is about as bad defensively as Nava. He is a perfectly sensible option for a couple of days if Victorino gets hurt. He makes up for being a below average fielder by being a significantly above average hitter.
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 29, 2014 8:51:45 GMT -5
Daniel Nava hit .303/.385/.445 in 2013. There are no backup right fielders that can hit .303/.385/.445 over a full season. His wOBA in 2013 was .366. For comparisons sake, Giancarlo Stanton's was .368, and Stanton is about as bad defensively as Nava. He is a perfectly sensible option for a couple of days if Victorino gets hurt. He makes up for being a below average fielder by being a significantly above average hitter. And he would have been in LF anyway if they had a better RF. And he's a significantly below average hitter against LHP.
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Post by James Dunne on Mar 29, 2014 9:04:52 GMT -5
Bradley hit .230/.349/.333 in Triple-A vs. LHP. In the majors he was 2 for 25. Nava is less below average than that. Unless you have Mike Trout or Troy Tulowitzki there is almost always going to be a tradeoff between offense and defense.
Also, let's suppose for a moment a hypothetical that they kept Bradley on the 25-man and traded Carp for a fringe reliever/Grade-C prospect type. The whole worry about not keeping Bradley is that the Red Sox are in a bad place if Sizemore or Victorino get injured, right? Ok, so it's game three of the season, Victorino has a setback and is out for a month. If Bradley is in the minors to start the year, they call him up. Bradley starts game 4.
In the scenario where Carp isn't on the team, who do they call up to take Victorino's spot on the roster? Brandon Snyder? Alex Hassan? Bryce Brentz? Corey Brown? The scenario you are purporting to be planning for by keeping Bradley actually leaves them with a worse roster in the case that that injury scenario happens. Now, suppose it's even worse. Instead of it being a month, Victorino is out for the entire season. The Red Sox traded their best bench bat because they needed to keep Bradley in case Victorino got injured, and now their post-Victorino roster is worse than it would've been if they'd sent Bradley to Triple-A.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Mar 29, 2014 9:27:45 GMT -5
Layne sent to Pawtucket so, Workman will remain. Pete Abraham ?@peteabe 5m RedSox roster: Starters: Lester, Lackey, Doubront, Peavy, Buchholz. Bullpen: Uehara, Tazawa, Miller, Mujica, Badenhop, Workman, Capuano. Pete Abraham ?@peteabe 7m Infielders: Napoli, Pedroia, Bogaerts, Middlebrooks, Herrera. Catchers: Napoli, Ross. DH: Ortiz. OF: Victorino, Sizemore, Nava, Carp, Gomes. . Excellent Speier article about Grady's road to Boston www.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/alex-speier/2014/03/29/man-plan-how-framingham-native-charted-grady-s?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter. Brian MacPherson ?@brianmacp 6m Farrell raved about Will Middlebrooks, saying that wearing contact lenses has helped him see borderline pitches better than he had. Scott Lauber ?@scottlauber 6m FWIW, Francisco Cordero has not yet informed #RedSox of whether he will accept assignment to Triple-A Pete Abraham ?@peteabe 1m #redsox and @jlester31 have tabled their extension talks amicably. Sides still want deal. Could talk in season.
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 29, 2014 9:40:00 GMT -5
Bradley played as long as there was a roster spot. With Ortiz back, he was sent down. Then he rode the shuttle late into the season. That amounted to a herky-jerky 100+ PAs. What he needs, what all talented young players need, is to be given a position and a chance to play it full time. Oakland does that all the time, Boston much less often. The navel gazing of the bulk of the Boston media is a constant distraction, one that serves no useful purpose excerpt to sell eyeballs and earbuds for the outlets. They hurt the team, and they don't even care whether they're right. Going back over last year's senseless attacks against players and management, and the ridiculous predictions many of them threw out there, is disgusting and laughable. All they care about is buzz. But they're there, so they have to be dealt with. Sizemore gets to live with them inside his shirt, for now. Bradley gets fulltime play in AAA. Are you blaming the media for the Red Sox decision to go with Sizemore over Bradley? The Red Sox let young position players play. They don't do it as much as Oakland because Oaklands roster isn't nearly as good as Boston's year after year and Oakland has little choice. Going back the Sox have let young players like these play and try to earn spots. Pedroia Jacoby Lowrie Salty Middlebrooks Boagaerts Who have they really screwed or squeezed out? Lowrie became too unreliable for a team like Boston to rely on. Reddick was part of a trade for a talented player and isn't very good outside of 2.5 months 2 years ago. I think they've done a great job with young guys. If JBjr didn't have important things to work on in AAA he'd be in Boston and despite those glaring issues, they are more then willing to have him work on them in Boston, but are fortunate to not have to.
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 29, 2014 9:44:23 GMT -5
Bradley hit .230/.349/.333 in Triple-A vs. LHP. In the majors he was 2 for 25. Nava is less below average than that. Unless you have Mike Trout or Troy Tulowitzki there is almost always going to be a tradeoff between offense and defense. Also, let's suppose for a moment a hypothetical that they kept Bradley on the 25-man and traded Carp for a fringe reliever/Grade-C prospect type. The whole worry about not keeping Bradley is that the Red Sox are in a bad place if Sizemore or Victorino get injured, right? Ok, so it's game three of the season, Victorino has a setback and is out for a month. If Bradley is in the minors to start the year, they call him up. Bradley starts game 4. In the scenario where Carp isn't on the team, who do they call up to take Victorino's spot on the roster? Brandon Snyder? Alex Hassan? Bryce Brentz? Corey Brown? The scenario you are purporting to be planning for by keeping Bradley actually leaves them with a worse roster in the case that that injury scenario happens. Now, suppose it's even worse. Instead of it being a month, Victorino is out for the entire season. The Red Sox traded their best bench bat because they needed to keep Bradley in case Victorino got injured, and now their post-Victorino roster is worse than it would've been if they'd sent Bradley to Triple-A. Nava hit .252/.311/.336 vs LHP last year and worse than that in his career. Everything you say could also be said about putting Nava in AAA to keep the depth. But you don't do it because it makes the major league roster worse while he's in AAA.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Mar 29, 2014 10:15:33 GMT -5
Pete Abraham ?@peteabe 14m Cherington mentioned best thing for #RedSox would be Sizemore and Bradley on the roster. But they want to maintain depth.
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 29, 2014 10:29:15 GMT -5
Pete Abraham ?@peteabe 1m
#redsox released non-roster Japanese submariner Shunsuke Watanabe. Was in minor league camp.
Not surprising with that 75 mph fastball.
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Post by jdb on Mar 29, 2014 10:41:24 GMT -5
Brian MacPherson ?@brianmacp 6m Farrell raved about Will Middlebrooks, saying that wearing contact lenses has helped him see borderline pitches better than he had. . Have I been living under a rock bc that's the first time I can recall seeing he was having vision issues. It would seem teams would almost check eyesight several times a year. Here's hoping the contacts could have an effect like Freddie Freeman had last year when his vision was corrected. I can dream right.
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,826
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Post by steveofbradenton on Mar 29, 2014 10:53:30 GMT -5
Brian MacPherson ?@brianmacp 6m Farrell raved about Will Middlebrooks, saying that wearing contact lenses has helped him see borderline pitches better than he had. . Have I been living under a rock bc that's the first time I can recall seeing he was having vision issues. It would seem teams would almost check eyesight several times a year. Here's hoping the contacts could have an effect like Freddie Freeman had last year when his vision was corrected. I can dream right. I like to dream also. It would be great if Will had a season of .270 with 30 tatters and 100 RBI and forced us to sign him to extension also. Middlebrooks looked good all spring and even in the field.
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 29, 2014 10:55:45 GMT -5
Brian MacPherson ?@brianmacp 6m Farrell raved about Will Middlebrooks, saying that wearing contact lenses has helped him see borderline pitches better than he had. . Have I been living under a rock bc that's the first time I can recall seeing he was having vision issues. It would seem teams would almost check eyesight several times a year. Here's hoping the contacts could have an effect like Freddie Freeman had last year when his vision was corrected. I can dream right. There was an article a few weeks ago about it.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Mar 29, 2014 11:16:35 GMT -5
The SI "expert" picks ... no one picks the Sox to win the AL, but the bigger surprise to me is actually that only 2 of 6 predicted Bogaerts to win the AL Rookie of the Year award. But then there's this sentence from Sheehan on why he chose Jose Abreu:
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Post by Oregon Norm on Mar 29, 2014 11:18:39 GMT -5
Brian MacPherson ?@brianmacp 6m Farrell raved about Will Middlebrooks, saying that wearing contact lenses has helped him see borderline pitches better than he had. . Have I been living under a rock bc that's the first time I can recall seeing he was having vision issues. It would seem teams would almost check eyesight several times a year. Here's hoping the contacts could have an effect like Freddie Freeman had last year when his vision was corrected. I can dream right. If I remember right, he was told about it a while back, after testing. He decided to give it a try during spring training.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Mar 29, 2014 11:36:17 GMT -5
Brian MacPherson ?@brianmacp 6m Farrell raved about Will Middlebrooks, saying that wearing contact lenses has helped him see borderline pitches better than he had. . Have I been living under a rock bc that's the first time I can recall seeing he was having vision issues. It would seem teams would almost check eyesight several times a year. Here's hoping the contacts could have an effect like Freddie Freeman had last year when his vision was corrected. I can dream right. There have been periodic mentions but this article yesterday puts it all into one package from Will's viewpoint.: www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2014/03/will_middlebrooks_trying_out_c.html
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 29, 2014 11:44:32 GMT -5
The SI "expert" picks ... no one picks the Sox to win the AL, but the bigger surprise to me is actually that only 2 of 6 predicted Bogaerts to win the AL Rookie of the Year award. But then there's this sentence from Sheehan on why he chose Jose Abreu: That is a bit odd from Sheehan because I know he doesn't typically put any stock in ST performance. I guess it's a little different when it's a cuban player with no MLB track record and that's all we have to go on, but it's still kind of weird. Still, it's a reasonable pick given the actual parameters of the ROY voting. Abreu is mostly likely going to have more homers and RBI than Bogaerts, and... yeah, that's how that works. Ditto Tanaka. The guy who picked Nick Castellanos, though?
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Post by jmei on Mar 29, 2014 12:34:36 GMT -5
Daniel Nava hit .303/.385/.445 in 2013. There are no backup right fielders that can hit .303/.385/.445 over a full season. His wOBA in 2013 was .366. For comparisons sake, Giancarlo Stanton's was .368, and Stanton is about as bad defensively as Nava. He is a perfectly sensible option for a couple of days if Victorino gets hurt. He makes up for being a below average fielder by being a significantly above average hitter. [...] Bradley hit .230/.349/.333 in Triple-A vs. LHP. In the majors he was 2 for 25. Nava is less below average than that. Unless you have Mike Trout or Troy Tulowitzki there is almost always going to be a tradeoff between offense and defense. Nava put up that .366 wOBA (128 wRC+) by hitting for a 146 wRC+ against righties and a 75 wRC+ versus lefties. That big split is consistent with his career marks (129/73). Despite that cumulative 128 wRC+, he was only worth 1.8 fWAR and 2.8 bWAR last year in 536 PAs. That was, in large part, because he's been a consistently and meaningfully worse fielder in RF than LF, with a career UZR/150, DRS/yr, and TZ/yr of -14.1, -2, and -16 in RF compared to -9.6, 0, and 4 in LF. He's well below replacement-level in RF versus lefties and a roughly average player in RF versus righties; plugging in his career L/R splits and rating his RF defense as a six out of seven into this WAR calculator puts him at -1.7 WAR/600 PAs versus lefties and 2 WAR/600 PAs versus righties. Yes, Bradley was bad versus lefties in 2013, but prior to that, his split were less extreme (a a .908/.761 L/R split in Portland and a .881/1.035 L/R split in Salem in 2012). Yes, Bradley will probably be a worse hitter versus LHP than Nava, but he's almost certainly still a better overall player than Nava in RF versus LHP due to his much superior defense/baserunning. Comparing Nava and Bradley in RF versus RHP makes it a much closer contest, but if you believe in Nava's UZR/TZ in RF as opposed to his DRS, there's a pretty strong argument to be made that Bradley's superior defense mostly makes up for Nava's superior hitting even vs. LHP. If they're roughly equal players in RF, you'd prefer to have Bradley there since that would allow you to keep the Nava/Gomes platoon in LF and avoid having Gomes hit versus righties or Carp play LF (where, even versus righties, he's a replacement-level-ish guy because of his lack of range). Also, let's suppose for a moment a hypothetical that they kept Bradley on the 25-man and traded Carp for a fringe reliever/Grade-C prospect type. The whole worry about not keeping Bradley is that the Red Sox are in a bad place if Sizemore or Victorino get injured, right? Ok, so it's game three of the season, Victorino has a setback and is out for a month. If Bradley is in the minors to start the year, they call him up. Bradley starts game 4. In the scenario where Carp isn't on the team, who do they call up to take Victorino's spot on the roster? Brandon Snyder? Alex Hassan? Bryce Brentz? Corey Brown? The scenario you are purporting to be planning for by keeping Bradley actually leaves them with a worse roster in the case that that injury scenario happens. Now, suppose it's even worse. Instead of it being a month, Victorino is out for the entire season. The Red Sox traded their best bench bat because they needed to keep Bradley in case Victorino got injured, and now their post-Victorino roster is worse than it would've been if they'd sent Bradley to Triple-A. I don't think it does give them a worse roster. If Victorino gets hurt, they call up one of Hassan/Brentz and have him platoon with Bradley in RF. I'm pretty confident that, once you take defense/baserunning into account, a Bradley/RHH platoon in RF (with Nava/Gomes continuing to platoon in LF) will outproduce whatever configuration you'd have with Carp on the roster (either a Carp/Gomes platoon in LF with Nava full-time in RF or Bradley full-time in RF with Nava/Gomes in LF and Carp sprinkled in). It would basically comes down to whether you'd prefer have Hassan/Brentz or Carp playing some outfield if Victorino or Sizemore were hurt, which is actually a pretty close question since Carp gives back his offensive advantage on the defensive side and wouldn't really factor into any platoons.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Mar 29, 2014 12:40:07 GMT -5
One would think that just being healthy this year would help Middlebrooks a lot. He seemed to make better contact when he was a rookie, surprisingly good considering his pop. I'm not saying he was ever a high contact hitter but for a guy with the HR pop he had, he seemed to the eye to square up the ball well, with regularity that first year.
He seems also to have added some bulk this year, which possibly effects his fielding a little but I wouldn't be a bit surprised if we see his pop be at the original 30 HR pace or even more. The guy looks like he has started coming into his man power. He's now a bull moose, on the rut.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Mar 29, 2014 13:00:45 GMT -5
Bradley played as long as there was a roster spot. With Ortiz back, he was sent down. Then he rode the shuttle late into the season. That amounted to a herky-jerky 100+ PAs. What he needs, what all talented young players need, is to be given a position and a chance to play it full time. Oakland does that all the time, Boston much less often. The navel gazing of the bulk of the Boston media is a constant distraction, one that serves no useful purpose excerpt to sell eyeballs and earbuds for the outlets. They hurt the team, and they don't even care whether they're right. Going back over last year's senseless attacks against players and management, and the ridiculous predictions many of them threw out there, is disgusting and laughable. All they care about is buzz. But they're there, so they have to be dealt with. Sizemore gets to live with them inside his shirt, for now. Bradley gets fulltime play in AAA. Are you blaming the media for the Red Sox decision to go with Sizemore over Bradley? The Red Sox let young position players play. They don't do it as much as Oakland because Oaklands roster isn't nearly as good as Boston's year after year and Oakland has little choice. Going back the Sox have let young players like these play and try to earn spots. Pedroia Jacoby Lowrie Salty Middlebrooks Boagaerts Who have they really screwed or squeezed out? Lowrie became too unreliable for a team like Boston to rely on. Reddick was part of a trade for a talented player and isn't very good outside of 2.5 months 2 years ago. I think they've done a great job with young guys. If JBjr didn't have important things to work on in AAA he'd be in Boston and despite those glaring issues, they are more then willing to have him work on them in Boston, but are fortunate to not have to. First of all, the stuff about Oakland is BS. It isn't about who's got the best roster or choice, it's about letting players get to the next level and work it out. Go read the endless churn about Reddick and Lowrie to get an idea what I'm talking about. In the end, those two players returned Hanrahan, Bailey, and some spare parts. I'll let you decide the value of those decisions. My impression is the FO has learned its lesson, with the hoarding instinct having taken hold as others have pointed out. As for the others, Ellsbury caught endless hell, as have Middlebrooks and Saltalamacchia. Why? Just so the talking heads can have an endless supply of whipping boys? For what purpose? Re-read my post. And no, Bradley's being sent down is mainly about Sizemore. But for many in the Boston media, the idea is to change the energy level of every player move. While it wasn't the motivating factor, and it's something we can't know, I'll bet there was a bit of FO discussion about cutting Bradley some media-slack to get the year started. Again, go read the silliness from last year, all the way from the initial man-love, to the casting aside of the 23-year old. So be it. It isn't going to change. Boston is not Oakland for good and bad. But when it comes to baseball, they develop their players and add value more quickly. That's a function, at least in part, of the silly stuff that passes for informed coverage in my opinion.
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