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2014 Non-Red Sox MLB thread
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Post by southernredsoxality on Aug 2, 2014 16:41:06 GMT -5
Actually I was being sarcastic about the scout thing. You got it backwards, it was actually the "scouts" who completely made up the bat speed theory. This guy along with Despaigne have been the two best hitters in Cuba for a long time now, including intl. tournaments. He never had any bat speed issues. Yeah those scouts who recommended the White Sox offer $68 million and the Red Sox offer $60+ million sure did get it wrong. And yes, obviously, the whole bat speed issue was a red herring to try to dissuade other teams from bidding more. Just like Puig was labeled as "fat and out of shape." So you think the Red Sox thought that a middle of the order bat in his prime years with no pick attached was worth just $60 million? Get real, they were obviously scared off and made a very safe bid. Puig and Abreu have nothing in common other than being cuban. One was a great athlete with almost no track record domestically or internationally, the other one was proven to be one of the best hitters in the world. Besides, fat and out of shape is not even in the same universe of red flags as bat speed trouble.
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Post by jdb on Aug 2, 2014 18:02:34 GMT -5
Can we just drop the Abreu talk. I don't think we win the WS last year if Napoli finds out we just signed his replacement during the post season.
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Post by klostrophobic on Aug 2, 2014 18:16:46 GMT -5
Remember when Abreu had bat speed problems? Gotta love the scouts... The divide of opinion on Abreu laid bare the flawed reasoning of sabermetric wonks. Folks who need numbers to assess a player's talent had a collective meltdown at the thought of signing a player based on seeing that player at one or two workouts. Once Abreu signed for a boatload of money, these folks starting saying that it was an overpay, that the White Sox would be saddled with an albatross contract. Once Abreu started producing, these folks started saying the numbers were illusory, the product of a small sample size. The scouts got this one right, while the wonks failed. It's been a pleasure to watch this guy perform and actually get better as the season has progressed. He absolutely trashed opposing pitchers in July. By the end of the season, even those in denial will be hard pressed not to recognize Abreu as one of the three best hitters in the American League. I thought davenport translations projected him to hit like Miguel Cabrera this year.
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Post by kingofthetrill on Aug 2, 2014 20:53:11 GMT -5
Bob Nightengale ?@bnightengale 9m Now that the #Royals will be without 1B Eric Hosmer for up to six weeks, Mike Carp, who was DFA'd by the #Redsox, is a natural replacement. I believe that Paul Goldschmidt fractured his hand and will be out for 6 weeks as well.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 3, 2014 14:57:38 GMT -5
Arizona Diamondbacks All-Star 1st baseman Paul Goldschmidt likely done for season with fractured left hand - @sportscenter Jacob deGrom with another great outing. This kid doesn't get near enough attention considering how good he is. Interesting game. Him and Peavy had no hitters going into the 7th.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 3, 2014 16:44:07 GMT -5
The Diamondbacks are going to just plug in someone at first base - there's no reason for them to try and trade for Carp. They're not competing for anything except first pick overall.
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Post by amfox1 on Aug 4, 2014 15:24:09 GMT -5
New York Mets ?@mets 3m Roster Move: Bobby Abreu has been designated for assignment. A corresponding move will be made.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 4, 2014 15:30:52 GMT -5
New York Mets ?@mets 3m Roster Move: Bobby Abreu has been designated for assignment. A corresponding move will be made. Maybe they'll call up David Wright for his MLB debut.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 4, 2014 15:57:46 GMT -5
Remember when Abreu had bat speed problems? Gotta love the scouts... The divide of opinion on Abreu laid bare the flawed reasoning of sabermetric wonks. Folks who need numbers to assess a player's talent had a collective meltdown at the thought of signing a player based on seeing that player at one or two workouts. Once Abreu signed for a boatload of money, these folks starting saying that it was an overpay, that the White Sox would be saddled with an albatross contract. Once Abreu started producing, these folks started saying the numbers were illusory, the product of a small sample size. The scouts got this one right, while the wonks failed. It's been a pleasure to watch this guy perform and actually get better as the season has progressed. He absolutely trashed opposing pitchers in July. By the end of the season, even those in denial will be hard pressed not to recognize Abreu as one of the three best hitters in the American League. Care to actually name any names here or are we just assuming that anyone who's ever looked at a Fangraphs article is an interchangeable slave of groupthink?
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Post by ethanbein on Aug 4, 2014 16:14:58 GMT -5
Also, preseason, Steamer projected Abreu for a 140 wRC+, ZiPS 135. He's been better than that, but even if he weren't he would most definitely be worth his small contract. "These folks" liked him quite a bit.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 4, 2014 16:22:23 GMT -5
@ken_Rosenthal On waivers today: Rest of the relevant #Phillies: Byrd, Papelbon, Rollins, Utley, Hamels, Ruiz. They will clear (or not) on Wednesday.
If he gets past the NL - not likely, but possible since a claiming team would be on the hook for full salary, the Sox should claim Hamels.
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 4, 2014 16:26:16 GMT -5
Hamels salary is not at all unreasonable - he'd fetch quite a bit more than it in free agency. I'm guessing he doesn't get past the Cubs. They have the pieces to put together a deal, but as I mentioned earlier I think it's more likely to happen in the offseason.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 4, 2014 16:28:31 GMT -5
Agreed.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 4, 2014 16:31:24 GMT -5
Hamels salary is not at all unreasonable - he'd fetch quite a bit more than it in free agency. I'm guessing he doesn't get past the Cubs. They have the pieces to put together a deal, but as I mentioned earlier I think it's more likely to happen in the offseason. Although I will add that it is known Red Sox are one of the six teams not on his no-trade list. Wonder if that includes the Cubs, and if they know that would it make them any less likely to make a claim. Doubtful, but a nonzero chance, at least. YEAH! ADDED: According to FoxSports, Cubs are on his no trade list: www.philly.com/philly/blogs/sports/phillies/The-teams-Cole-Hamels-would-accept-a-trade-to-as-reported-by-FoxSportscom.htmlTeams not on the list are: Dodgers, Padres, Angels, Cardinals, Nationals, Braves, Yankees, Red Sox, Rangers
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Post by sammo420 on Aug 4, 2014 19:18:55 GMT -5
Hamels salary is not at all unreasonable - he'd fetch quite a bit more than it in free agency. I'm guessing he doesn't get past the Cubs. They have the pieces to put together a deal, but as I mentioned earlier I think it's more likely to happen in the offseason. I don't watch enough non-sox mlb, are the Cubs close enough to having anything to make a move on Hamels? I mean that talent wise at the MLB level, I know they have plenty of prospects.
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Post by ibsmith85 on Aug 4, 2014 19:46:05 GMT -5
Hamels salary is not at all unreasonable - he'd fetch quite a bit more than it in free agency. I'm guessing he doesn't get past the Cubs. They have the pieces to put together a deal, but as I mentioned earlier I think it's more likely to happen in the offseason. I don't watch enough non-sox mlb, are the Cubs close enough to having anything to make a move on Hamels? I mean that talent wise at the MLB level, I know they have plenty of prospects. Complete conjecture on my part but I actually think the Cubs and Phillies would match up well in a deal for Hamels, with two caveats, Hamels waiving his no trade, and the Cubs thinking Baez has a realistic chance to stay at SS. If so, a deal headlined by Starlin Castro, including say Albert Almora, CJ Edwards, and a lower level lottery ticket could be a win win move. It gives the Phillies a young proven talent to replace Rollins, and a nice prospect haul, Theo keeps his two studs in Bryant and Baez, and lands his Ace pitcher. (Then signs Lester and Rusney, and is a contender in 2015)
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Post by Oregon Norm on Aug 5, 2014 0:26:14 GMT -5
Sitting here writing comments to the draft of the forest plan for the regional national forests, and entertaining myself with the Athletics - Rays game. Great stuff: 10th inning and TB gets a guy on third thanks to an error by Lowrie. They try the suicide squeeze, Doolittle gets the ball halfway to the plate and flips to Norris on a very close play at the plate for the out. Norris, by the way, is probably the best hitting catcher in the majors at this point, and that's without looking. His OPS sits at a cool .872 before tonight. I don't believe the Athletics need Cespedes as much as they'll need Lester.
Add:...and Norris wins it with a single up the middle in the 10th with the bases loaded, Balfour the loser.
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Post by amfox1 on Aug 5, 2014 7:10:14 GMT -5
Anyone else think Bryce Harper is the most over-hyped player on the planet? The guy's had 5 extra base hits since June 30th. His OPS was sitting at .715 before today's 0-3 with 1 BB outing. Proves that the development curve with young players is not linear and that we shouldn't be surprised when our young players (read: X, JBJ, Web, WMB, etc) struggle. Patience is key.
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 5, 2014 7:33:22 GMT -5
You know that Henry Owens dude who killed it at Pawtucket yesterday and we're all amped for? He's three months older than Harper. Mookie Betts is nine days older. Harper is a victim of both his own expectations and the fact that he ended up linked with Mike Trout.
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Post by raftsox on Aug 5, 2014 9:46:21 GMT -5
In what may prove to be useless, I have decided to plot all single-pitcher-seasons from 1963 to present with a minimum of 150 innings pitches for FIP-.
The average is 97 with a standard deviation of 15. Pedro's 1999 season is an amazing 4.7 standard deviations better than average! The next best season ever is 1.2 standard deviations worse! The worst ever season is 4.3 standard deviations worse than average.
I am attempting to use this to define an "ace". Taking the top 15% of the total qualified pitcher-seasons as the definition of "ace" [this would be the top 20 or so pitchers each year] results in seasons with >1 standard deviation above average, or a FIP- of 81 or better. You'd then have to weed out the outlier season of pitchers overperforming, for example: Matt Garza's 2011.
The remaining list from 2010 to present is: Adam Wainwright Anibel Sanchez
CJ Wilson CC Sabathia
Chris Sale Clayton Kershaw Cliff Lee Cole Hamels David Price Doug Fister Felix Hernandez Jon Lester Justin Verlander Max Scherzer
Roy Halladay
Yu Darvish Zack Greinke
The players names that are crossed out either retired or haven't had a qualified season since 2011. Then there are a few who should be on the list, but aren't because of injuries or too few seasons, for example: Strasburg, Jose Fernandez, Tanaka, etc.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 5, 2014 9:59:22 GMT -5
Anyone else think Bryce Harper is the most over-hyped player on the planet? The guy's had 5 extra base hits since June 30th. His OPS was sitting at .715 before today's 0-3 with 1 BB outing. Awesome. Maybe we can convince DC he's a buy low candidate with his "attitude" and get him for a couple of the future #3 starters. I would LOVE that guy in Fenway.
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Post by amfox1 on Aug 5, 2014 11:57:33 GMT -5
Rany Jazayerli ?@jazayerli 12m The Marlins DFA'ed Jacob Turner? Sure his ERA is 5.97, but his FIP is 4.01, xFIP is 3.93, he's 23 years old, his FB is ticking up. Strange.
Turner would be an excellent claim by BOS IMO.
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Post by ibsmith85 on Aug 5, 2014 12:23:52 GMT -5
Rany Jazayerli ?@jazayerli 12m The Marlins DFA'ed Jacob Turner? Sure his ERA is 5.97, but his FIP is 4.01, xFIP is 3.93, he's 23 years old, his FB is ticking up. Strange. Turner would be an excellent claim by BOS IMO. Is there any chance at all he would make it as far as Boston? Seems like a perfect candidate for the pitching starved Cubbies to jump on. Which brings me to a question Ive been meaning to ask, whats the reasoning behind the waivers rule, where the player has to clear his old teams league first (The NL in this case), as opposed to all 30 teams in reverse order of standings?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 5, 2014 12:44:46 GMT -5
In what may prove to be useless, I have decided to plot all single-pitcher-seasons from 1963 to present with a minimum of 150 innings pitches for FIP-. The average is 97 with a standard deviation of 15. Pedro's 1999 season is an amazing 4.7 standard deviations better than average! The next best season ever is 1.2 standard deviations worse! The worst ever season is 4.3 standard deviations worse than average. I am attempting to use this to define an "ace". Taking the top 15% of the total qualified pitcher-seasons as the definition of "ace" [this would be the top 20 or so pitchers each year] results in seasons with >1 standard deviation above average, or a FIP- of 81 or better. You'd then have to weed out the outlier season of pitchers overperforming, for example: Matt Garza's 2011. The remaining list from 2010 to present is: Adam Wainwright Anibel Sanchez CJ Wilson CC Sabathia
Chris Sale Clayton Kershaw Cliff Lee Cole Hamels David Price Doug Fister Felix Hernandez Jon Lester Justin Verlander Max Scherzer Roy Halladay
Yu Darvish Zack Greinke The players names that are crossed out either retired or haven't had a qualified season since 2011. Then there are a few who should be on the list, but aren't because of injuries or too few seasons, for example: Strasburg, Jose Fernandez, Tanaka, etc. Nice. Passes the eyeball test for me, except Fister seems a stretch for that label. How about if you increase the IP minimum to like, 180? Does that change anything? Ability to go deep into games and make your starts is a big part of my definition, at least, of an ace. Also, how about if you just used 1 std dev above average as the cutoff, thus allowing for a theoretical fluctuation in the number of "aces" in the game (thus becoming the fifteenth-best pitcher in the game doesn't make you an ace, but rather reaching a certain level of performance compared to the rest of the league). That's only if it's easy, I'd be interested in seeing the results.
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Post by amfox1 on Aug 5, 2014 13:05:56 GMT -5
Jon Heyman ?@jonheymancbs 5m Matt Kemp plus Ethier, Crawford and Beckett cleared waivers but Hanley Ramirez was claimed/blocked. Blog coming @cbssports
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