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First Base for 2013 (and Beyond)
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Post by semperfisox on Jun 17, 2013 9:32:02 GMT -5
Wouldn't mind trading for a 1B in the offseason. I'd love to get Hosmer if he becomes available like he was for a little bit this past offseason.
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
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Post by steveofbradenton on Jun 17, 2013 10:56:40 GMT -5
Call me crazy (or maybe), but I'm not sure resigning Mike Napoli is a "sure" thing. I never saw him as a guy who made constant contact, but his K's and swings and misses are really adding up. I like Napoli, but I would not be upset if we explored another avenue this offseason. I'm not part of the crowd who believes a strike-out is just an out. The only thing worse than a K is a DP, and I rather he at least put it in play. Something good can happen when placed in fair territory.
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Post by okin15 on Jun 17, 2013 11:13:06 GMT -5
I think that with your current logjam at IF and the short term nature of these injuries, letting WMB and Nava split 1B duties is the answer.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Jun 17, 2013 11:46:52 GMT -5
Everything is fluid here, but *if* Bogaerts shifts to 3b in another couple of years and the Sox find out that Iglesias can maintain a .350 OBP or so at SS. Cecchini could eventually be moved to 1b as a non conventional type at the position. That is, without the plus power, though with hopeful more XBH and OBP than most that play it.
Nava could hold it down in the meantime, even Carp as long as he continues playing "above his head" so to say.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jun 17, 2013 12:36:45 GMT -5
The problem is that Ortiz eventually is going to get old, maybe rather suddenly, as often occurs. There is no other slugger of his ability on the team now, and the only one anywhere close is Bogaerts, and we really don't know about him, yet. Once Ortiz declines, the run-scoring ability of this team will decline unless he is replaced.
I think an off-season priority will be to get a 1B, a really good one, a slugger. I like Nava, but he is not the kind of hitter the team is going to need to replace Ortiz. How Middlebrooks does the rest of the year certainly will be a factor, as will how Brentz does. Those two and Bogaerts really are the only young homegrown power hitters.
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Post by bjb406 on Jun 17, 2013 13:00:12 GMT -5
Along with Catcher, 1b is one of 2 positions I could see going a number of ways. Napoli is the best free agent available, but if we went another direction it should get us a draft pick, probably. There are any number of ways to fill the position in house, since basically anyone can play 1b. The redsox also have some assets they should be looking to trade sometime before next season with logjams forming at outfield and SP. Doubront/Lackey both have fairly cheap contracts (I'm assuming Lackey's basically free option year can be traded) and seem pretty tradeable, and I would like to move at least one of Gomes/Victorino if we can.
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Post by elguapo on Jun 17, 2013 13:20:24 GMT -5
Napoli's numbers this season are somewhat concerning going forward. With a horrendous 34% K rate (up from 30% last year, 26% career), he has to maintain a sky high LD rate & BABIP to remain productive. And maybe he will, but there doesn't seem like a lot of upside there right now.
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Post by tjb21 on Jun 17, 2013 13:21:53 GMT -5
Everything is fluid here, but *if* Bogaerts shifts to 3b in another couple of years and the Sox find out that Iglesias can maintain a .350 OBP or so at SS. Cecchini could eventually be moved to 1b as a non conventional type at the position. That is, without the plus power, though with hopeful more XBH and OBP than most that play it. Nava could hold it down in the meantime, even Carp as long as he continues playing "above his head" so to say. So Carp is playing "above his head", but Iglesias maintaining a .350 OBP isn't? I'm all in with Nava at 1b if Napoli declines the QO.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Jun 17, 2013 14:37:23 GMT -5
Everything is fluid here, but *if* Bogaerts shifts to 3b in another couple of years and the Sox find out that Iglesias can maintain a .350 OBP or so at SS. Cecchini could eventually be moved to 1b as a non conventional type at the position. That is, without the plus power, though with hopeful more XBH and OBP than most that play it. Nava could hold it down in the meantime, even Carp as long as he continues playing "above his head" so to say. So Carp is playing "above his head", but Iglesias maintaining a .350 OBP isn't? I'm all in with Nava at 1b if Napoli declines the QO. Carp wasn't able to get OB at a .325 PCT before this season even and yes.. I would like to see him continue to do it, even Iglesias continue to hit at .425 and get OB at .450, but he's not. What I meant was that Carp has 2Y of MLB experience and K's at a 35% rate, walks less than 10% of the time historically and is a negative defender at corner OF and 1b. Iglesias has not hit above AA, AAA and we *hope* can hit/get on base enough, as in a .350OBP to make his glove worthy of a spot. Carp has had 700+ PA over 4 seasons, the book is pretty much out on him as a player, though yes, anything could change and Iglesias has never really had his big chance yet to prove himself.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jun 17, 2013 14:53:20 GMT -5
So Carp is playing "above his head", but Iglesias maintaining a .350 OBP isn't? I'm all in with Nava at 1b if Napoli declines the QO. Carp wasn't able to get OB at a .325 PCT before this season even and yes.. I would like to see him continue to do it, even Iglesias continue to hit at .425 and get OB at .450, but he's not. What I meant was that Carp has 2Y of MLB experience and K's at a 35% rate, walks less than 10% of the time historically and is a negative defender at corner OF and 1b. Iglesias has not hit above AA, AAA and we *hope* can hit/get on base enough, as in a .350OBP to make his glove worthy of a spot. Carp has had 700+ PA over 4 seasons, the book is pretty much out on him as a player, though yes, anything could change and Iglesias has never really had his big chance yet to prove himself. This seems overly harsh on Carp, who had some excellent minor league numbers with good walk rates and power, and whose Seattle stats were dampened in general by Safeco Fields's park factors, and in particular by the serious shoulder injury he suffered on opening day 2012. He's not going to slug 686 forever, but "the book" is not settled yet on him as a player.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jun 17, 2013 15:23:57 GMT -5
Added detail: ESPN says Safeco had a park factor of .855 in 311, when Carp hit .276/.326/.466
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Post by sammo420 on Jun 17, 2013 15:34:55 GMT -5
Carp has had 700+ PA over 4 seasons, the book is pretty much out on him as a player Big Papi with the Minnesota Twins?
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Post by johnsilver52 on Jun 17, 2013 16:22:23 GMT -5
Carp has had 700+ PA over 4 seasons, the book is pretty much out on him as a player Big Papi with the Minnesota Twins?Mmm.. Not him now. Ortiz changed his swing and entire plate approach at Fenway. Carp? He is still pulling the ball a lot. Can he change? I hope he can and am not pulling against him being a useful player as some here are thinking, just going with his past history, spread over 4 years. As one poster noted.. Is he another Safeco tragedy? Good question. Adrian Beltre was affected some. I guess only more time will tell, but for now I can see him getting more and more playing time as long as his bat maintains, until pitchers dig around and find a weakness. That k/bb rate spells out that there probably is one.
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Post by sammo420 on Jun 17, 2013 16:38:53 GMT -5
Big Papi with the Minnesota Twins? Mmm.. Not him now. Ortiz changed his swing and entire plate approach at Fenway. Carp? He is still pulling the ball a lot. Can he change? I hope he can and am not pulling against him being a useful player as some here are thinking, just going with his past history, spread over 4 years. As one poster noted.. Is he another Safeco tragedy? Good question. Adrian Beltre was affected some. I guess only more time will tell, but for now I can see him getting more and more playing time as long as his bat maintains, until pitchers dig around and find a weakness. That k/bb rate spells out that there probably is one. Ortiz is also a huge best case scenario which is why I used italics. I don't anybody expects to find another situation similar to that one. I like the way the site auto-removes too many quotes. Nice feature.
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Post by jmei on Jun 17, 2013 18:29:26 GMT -5
Carp wasn't able to get OB at a .325 PCT before this season even and yes.. I would like to see him continue to do it, even Iglesias continue to hit at .425 and get OB at .450, but he's not. What I meant was that Carp has 2Y of MLB experience and K's at a 35% rate, walks less than 10% of the time historically and is a negative defender at corner OF and 1b. Iglesias has not hit above AA, AAA and we *hope* can hit/get on base enough, as in a .350OBP to make his glove worthy of a spot. Carp has had 700+ PA over 4 seasons, the book is pretty much out on him as a player, though yes, anything could change and Iglesias has never really had his big chance yet to prove himself. Iglesias has 916 PAs of terrible AAA performance (.257/.307/.314/.622). His combined major league performance is very good for a SS (107 wRC+; league-average is 85 for SS) but in a tiny sample size (182 PAs). Carp, on the other hand, has 1393 PAs of pretty solid AAA performance (.276/.356/.498/.853). Once you adjust for park, he also has 724 PAs of very good major league performance (career 121 wRC+; major league average for 1B in 2013 is 109). I think you're betting on the wrong horse, here.
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Post by sarasoxer on Jun 17, 2013 18:40:11 GMT -5
Carp wasn't able to get OB at a .325 PCT before this season even and yes.. I would like to see him continue to do it, even Iglesias continue to hit at .425 and get OB at .450, but he's not. What I meant was that Carp has 2Y of MLB experience and K's at a 35% rate, walks less than 10% of the time historically and is a negative defender at corner OF and 1b. Iglesias has not hit above AA, AAA and we *hope* can hit/get on base enough, as in a .350OBP to make his glove worthy of a spot. Carp has had 700+ PA over 4 seasons, the book is pretty much out on him as a player, though yes, anything could change and Iglesias has never really had his big chance yet to prove himself. Iglesias has 916 PAs of terrible AAA performance (.257/.307/.314/.622). His combined major league performance is very good for a SS (107 wRC+; league-average is 85 for SS) but in a tiny sample size (182 PAs). Carp, on the other hand, has 1393 PAs of pretty solid AAA performance (.276/.356/.498/.853). Once you adjust for park, he also has 724 PAs of very good major league performance (career 121 wRC+; major league average for 1B in 2013 is 109). I think you're betting on the wrong horse, here. Agree with you.
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Post by mattpicard on Jun 17, 2013 18:41:28 GMT -5
I don't really want Napoli back. The guy is working off a poor BB% by his standards and a scary 33.6 K%, which is just ridiculously bad, even for a guy who strikes out a lot. Despite this, he has a career best .385 BABIP going which I doubt he's going to sustain, but it is being fueled by a 27.2 LD%, by far a career best above his 19.2 LD% career average. Unfortunately, he's swinging more than ever at balls outside the strike zone (career worst 25.3% O-swing!) and hitting worse than ever with contact on balls inside the strike zone (68.2% Z-contact%), something that will come as no shock to those who have watched him this season. Thus, it's not surprising to hear his overall contact rate is worse than ever as well, at 68.2%. It interests me that he's hitting the ball harder than ever when he's actually able to hit it, but that doesn't alleviate his striking contact issues.
Those are just a bunch of numbers (meaningful ones), but the basic point is, I really don't trust Napoli as a middle-of-the-order hitter. If he was still walking a ton, that'd make it a little more bearable, but he's really a guy that you have to expect will strike out all of the time, with the occasional well-struck extra-base hit. Carp and Nava platooning really won't be much of a drop-off (maybe even an improvement), and it's far more cost-effective. Of course, with a position like first base where you want some big time offense, it makes sense to explore some more rewarding long-term opportunities, but I don't feel a need to unload a bunch of quality young talent for someone like Eric Hosmer, who, while he is just a measly 23-years of age, has yet to come close to being a solid major league first baseman.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Jun 18, 2013 12:36:57 GMT -5
ESPN has a piece today about Stanton, and the possibility he will be traded, but also the injury risk he represents. He is 6-6 and 240 and they point out that only a couple of guys that size have had lengthy major league careers. It occurred to me that it might be a clever move by an acquiring team to shift him to 1B, where he would be less likely to get injured.
And then, in a couple of years, he might be almost exactly the right kind of replacement for Big Papi.
Wouldn't that be cool?
Also, in his blog today, Keith Law suggests that Anthony Ranaudo might be moving into line for a call-up after Webster. He forgot about De La Rosa, but his comments are interesting. He is impressed with what Ranaudo has done this year and thinks he is close to big-league ready.
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Post by okin15 on Jun 18, 2013 18:09:23 GMT -5
I like the Stanton idea, but I worry that our lineup could be getting RHH heavy. The projected one from SoxProspects has only 2 LHH and one SH, with another SH and LHH on the bench (plus whoever is the IF utility.) Losing Ells, Drew and Salty, and potentially benching one of Victorino or Nava, even when adding Bradley seems tough.
My relevant point is that a LHH 1B is ideal, although you could also do a platoon there and at C, plus Holt is indeed a LHH backup IF.
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Post by aardsmacarta on Jun 19, 2013 7:35:04 GMT -5
Even doing making no outside moves at all, they have options. Carp could turn out to be a real player -- these things do happen. They could move Middlebrooks to first once Xander comes up. Nava is another candidate. Almanzar seems like a longshot, but he's a possibility. Or they could could just annually plug stopgap types like Napoli in there until a permanent solution comes up through the ranks.
The pipe dream scenario has to be Carp, doesn't it? He's young, controllable, left-handed. Middlebrooks is less appealing but one could see him working out, too. He'd probably be a very good defender over there and maybe he puts it all together later on at first, like an Encarnacion.
But the big thing is, their future looks so good on the mound and in the tough defensive positions (second, short, center) that they have some room for error at first, where it seems like you can always just buy a bat.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jun 19, 2013 8:27:34 GMT -5
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Post by johnsilver52 on Jun 19, 2013 9:07:36 GMT -5
Iglesias has 916 PAs of terrible AAA performance (.257/.307/.314/.622). His combined major league performance is very good for a SS (107 wRC+; league-average is 85 for SS) but in a tiny sample size (182 PAs). Carp, on the other hand, has 1393 PAs of pretty solid AAA performance (.276/.356/.498/.853). Once you adjust for park, he also has 724 PAs of very good major league performance (career 121 wRC+; major league average for 1B in 2013 is 109). I think you're betting on the wrong horse, here. Agree with you. Carp is doing better this year and DOES have the power edge for sure, also as you (and others) noted? MiLB numbers are skewed his way. Please also remember all those numbers since 2009 are in extreme offensive leagues at MILB ball and that I'm not asking for iglesias to be any slugger, even .300+ hitter, just a guy who can at best get on at a .350OBP tops. Carp? Hope he keeps it up also of course. It would make the decision to let Napoli walk/go after him next year that much easier and far cheaper at 1b, with a Nava/Carp split there and Carp/Gomes in LF.
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Post by semperfisox on Jun 19, 2013 9:42:23 GMT -5
I'd gladly take Trumbo. But i'm sure LAA likes his bat in the middle of the lineup.
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Post by semperfisox on Jun 19, 2013 9:44:12 GMT -5
I like the Stanton idea, but I worry that our lineup could be getting RHH heavy. The projected one from SoxProspects has only 2 LHH and one SH, with another SH and LHH on the bench (plus whoever is the IF utility.) Losing Ells, Drew and Salty, and potentially benching one of Victorino or Nava, even when adding Bradley seems tough. My relevant point is that a LHH 1B is ideal, although you could also do a platoon there and at C, plus Holt is indeed a LHH backup IF. Kiss Bogaerts goodbye and about 3 other of our top prospects. I really want Xander to be apart of our future.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 20, 2013 12:48:24 GMT -5
The 1B free agent market is actually not that bad for 2014. Paul Konerko is having a tough year thus far, but he maybe a guy you could sign for a year and hope for a bounceback.
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