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First Base for 2013 (and Beyond)
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Post by SlugLife on Oct 3, 2012 7:26:09 GMT -5
I read this article this morning on the offseason challenges facing the LA Angels: www.latimes.com/sports/baseball/mlb/angels/la-sp-1003-angels-mariners-20121003,0,1730218.story I wonder if the Red Sox might use their huge payroll advantage to take on Vernon Wells in order to get Mark Trumbo. The Angels are facing a payroll crunch and already have a 1B/DH/LF logjam, especially if they bring back Torii Hunter, which appears likely. Wells has been terrible the last two seasons, but he still has power and plays a good left field. he might actually be sort of useful in the outfield mix, and the $40 million you would pay him through $2014 would be easy to swallow with Mark Trumbo making, at most, $3 or $4 million over that same two year period. If I'm the Red Sox, I do this deal because I have plenty of money, I need a young, impact first baseman, and because Vernon Wells might actually be useful getting 400 ABs in left field against the right matchups. If I'm the Angels, I get rid of my biggest payroll headache by trading away a talented but redundant player in Mark Trumbo so I can address much more urgent needs. Just to be clear, I'm not suggesting that getting Vernon Wells is a good thing - just that he has a chance not to suck and I see Mark Trumbo as an ideal fit for this franchise going forward.
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Post by sibbysisti on Oct 3, 2012 8:59:57 GMT -5
I suggested this on the Trumbo thread in Trade Discussion Forum. Wells is owed a lot of money for a guy whose skills are diminishing. Are you backing away from your Mauro Gomez et al proposal?
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Post by bentossaurus on Oct 3, 2012 9:13:18 GMT -5
Do you like Saltalamacchia? Then you gonna love Trumbo.
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Post by jhenrywaugh, prop. on Oct 3, 2012 9:21:58 GMT -5
Do you like Saltalamacchia? Then you gonna love Trumbo. I think this gets at the heart of what they're going to need from the position. If you assume Ellsbury stays, then consider Iglesias and Middlebrooks, they need, more than ever, someone that can work the count. It's why they were so streaky this year. To that end, I'd much rather see them try to buy low on someone young in a trade, like Smoak, Adams, or Davis, or Justin Morneau, whose salary they can easily absorb and would probably come cheaper because of it. That latter assumes, of course, that his physical checks out. But if you can get him for, say, Salty, Wilson, and Brentz, I think it's worth the gamble.
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Post by elguapo on Oct 3, 2012 9:31:25 GMT -5
.302 career OBP. Good grief! And you want to take Vernon Wells in addition to this lump of lard? Forget it.
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Post by SlugLife on Oct 3, 2012 10:34:42 GMT -5
Not exactly. Rather than pay retail for a player like Trumbo, I still think bringing a bunch of guys to camp is probably the best option in a weak market for first baseman.
I'm just suggesting that taking on dead money is another way to get the talent you need, and the Red Sox are in a unique position to do so.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 15, 2012 20:13:01 GMT -5
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 15, 2012 20:26:50 GMT -5
Those are some awfully small sample sizes, soxfan113. Gomez at Pawtucket this year:
vs. LHP: 120 AB, .317/.362/.717, 9 2B, 13 HR, 9 BB, 29 K vs. RHP 267 AB, .307/.375/.532, 25 2B, 11 HR, 26 BB, 59 K
I still maintain that Gomez wouldn't embarrass himself and could be an option if the Red Sox decide 2012 is a rebuilding year. I wouldn't want to go into the season expecting him to be a plus contributor on a contender, but if the market shakes out to where there aren't any great options, Gomez should at least be on the radar.
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Post by remember04 on Oct 15, 2012 22:47:11 GMT -5
I'm in favor of Gomez as well unless someone better somehow becomes available. I also think its too soon to start platooning Sands. He still has some development to do and if he hardly ever sees righties that isn't going to happen.
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Post by welovewally on Oct 15, 2012 23:07:46 GMT -5
I agree that Gomez could do a good job if the Sox are unable to get a big bat to play 1B. They could probably sign Looney to a 1yr deal to platoon with him if they wanted to give Sands more time in AAA.
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Oct 16, 2012 6:56:16 GMT -5
Sorry, I don't any scenario where the Red Sox start the season with a combination of Loney, Gomez and/or Sands as a first base platoon, particularly if the Red Sox have any aspirations of contending for a playoff spot. I see them trading for someone like Ike Davis,Justin Smoak, Mitch Moreland, etc. or signing a free agent such as LaRouche, Swisher, etc.
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,826
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Post by steveofbradenton on Oct 16, 2012 7:03:17 GMT -5
Sorry, I don't any scenario where the Red Sox start the season with a combination of Loney, Gomez and/or Sands as a first base platoon, particularly if the Red Sox have any aspirations of contending for a playoff spot. I see them trading for someone like Ike Davis,Justin Smoak, Mitch Moreland, etc. or signing a free agent such as LaRouche, Swisher, etc. That is million dollar question! The front office has to decide first if they really have a chance to compete next season. That actually precludes any of our discussion. That there is a difference of opinion even on this site, tells you a lot. 2013 or 2014? It's a tough one!
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Post by jmei on Oct 16, 2012 8:10:11 GMT -5
The worst thing the team could do is sign a second-tier first baseman like Swisher or LaRoche to a multi-year deal (and it's going to require 3+ years at $10m+ to sign either of them). Swisher has put up three or four very good seasons in a row, but that offensive performance plays a lot worse at 1B than RF and he's looking for a Jayson Werth-esque deal. LaRoche has had one good year and his bat might not play up in the AL East. They're both old (LaRoche will be 33, LaRoche will be 32) and you'd be getting the decline years of both players.
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 16, 2012 8:29:31 GMT -5
I also don't know that playing Gomez would preclude them from being a contender. They won 94 games in 1999 with Brian Daubach at first base and 93 in 2002 with Daubach and Tony Clark splitting time there (while Daubach also got lots of PT in the outfield and DH). In '02, they got a .661 OPS from the position, and that was at a time when offense was at a high point - the AL's first basemen hit .279/.364/.480. In 2012, first basemen were down to .258/.336/.442. A "Gomez and friends" construction at first would almost certainly outproduce the 2002 squad. The problem, of course, is that the 2002 Red Sox also had Nomar, Manny and Pedro, to go along with Derek Lowe's best season and one of Tim Wakefield's strongest. That team could afford to give up something at first base because they were getting huge production elsewhere. The 2013 team doesn't have that luxury. So I suppose it comes to weighing the production Gomez would bring against what it would cost to bring in another player. -Ike Davis would take a serious prospect in return. He might be worth it, and that option should at least be there, Alderson is no fool, so he's not going to give up on him, but I'm certain he'd listen to offers. Davis, though, seems like exactly the sort of player who a GM like Alderson would be inclined to hold on to. I'm not optimistic that something could be worked out. -I have no clue what to make of Justin Smoak. I'd always worried about the hitch in his swing, but he killed it in September, and this post by Jeff Sullivan over at FanGraphs seems to show that it's something he's really shortened. www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/where-theres-smoak-theres-something/ If any of you Pacific Northwest posters got to see him play at the end of the year, I'd love to hear some input. Anyhow, the Mariners aren't going to ignore how good he was at the end of the year, and that will boost his value. -I don't care for Moreland - a .320 OBP and less than 20 home runs by a lefty hitter in Arlington doesn't bode well for a Fenway transition. Also, he's already 27, so it's not like we're taking about a prospect here. I wouldn't trade Alex Wilson for him, straight up. -LaRoche is coming off a nice season, but there's a reason he's been available so frequently. He was mediocre for Arizona in '10, terrible (and injured) for Washington in '11, and turns 33 next month. If they can get him for short money, they should consider it, but he's not a long-term answer and I feel like he may get a three-year deal somewhere. -I don't care for Nick Swisher. I usually don't get involved in the whole "how will he play in the clubhouse" speculation, but I just don't want him on the team. I think he'd be a distraction, and he's not a good enough player to warrant the risk. -As I've stated before, Morneau intrigues me for the type of deal Beltre got on '10. He played well in the second half and still can rip the ball to left field. He doesn't have that traditional Fenway swing by any means, but on a cost-value basis, as a guy who can produce for a sub-premium contract, he's worth a look. I have no idea what the market will be for him though, and he may be looking to go somewhere that fits his swing a bit better, in order to resuscitate his career a bit. -James Loney is almost certainly a worse player than Gomez, or Bryan LaHair, or Russ Canzler, or any of the other many players who are always available for a spring training invite. If Loney would come back on a minor league deal, that's fine, but he's simply not good enough to get a guaranteed contract, even at cheap money. If he hadn't come over in the Punto deal, he wouldn't be on anyone's radar. It should stay that way.
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Post by remember04 on Oct 16, 2012 11:39:35 GMT -5
Sorry, I don't any scenario where the Red Sox start the season with a combination of Loney, Gomez and/or Sands as a first base platoon, particularly if the Red Sox have any aspirations of contending for a playoff spot. I see them trading for someone like Ike Davis,Justin Smoak, Mitch Moreland, etc. or signing a free agent such as LaRouche, Swisher, etc. That is million dollar question! The front office has to decide first if they really have a chance to compete next season. That actually precludes any of our discussion. That there is a difference of opinion even on this site, tells you a lot. 2013 or 2014? It's a tough one! I'm not sold on Davis and even less so on Smoak but they represent players that could help both next year and in the future. LaRoche and Swisher signings would be more just for next year. Deals/signings that help you in the immediate future and the long run are the ones they should be making....everywhere. They just have to find them.
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nomar
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Posts: 10,825
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Post by nomar on Oct 16, 2012 12:00:29 GMT -5
Davis has a road .902 OPS. If his home ballpark was Fenway and played i the small parks of the AL East he could post monster numbers here.
He cant hit lefties well, but if they platoon him with sands it should work perfectly.
Hes not going to be too expensive either. Salty is a fit for the Mets. My vote for 1B is Davis.
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Post by jmei on Oct 16, 2012 12:22:23 GMT -5
Davis would be a great target but I agree with James that the Mets aren't going to give him away. There was that speculation on a Mets blog that Saltalamacchia and Kalish would be enough to get it done, but I think that's very unlikely given Salty only has one year of team control left and the Mets are in a pseudo-rebuilding phase. Maybe something like Lavarnway and Kalish would interest them, though, especially if they think Lavarnway will stick at C.
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Post by larrycook on Oct 16, 2012 13:30:02 GMT -5
Davis would be a great target but I agree with James that the Mets aren't going to give him away. There was that speculation on a Mets blog that Saltalamacchia and Kalish would be enough to get it done, but I think that's very unlikely given Salty only has one year of team control left and the Mets are in a pseudo-rebuilding phase. Maybe something like Lavarnway and Kalish would interest them, though, especially if they think Lavarnway will stick at C. I agree as well, the Mets would definitely ask for more and part of that more has to be a reliever.
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Post by pokeefe363 on Oct 18, 2012 4:12:12 GMT -5
You guys are all forgetting Tyler Moore from the Nats. They have LaRoche, Morse, Zimmerman, Moore, and Rendon all as corner infield options. It's likely that 3/5 will be gone or 2/5 with Rendon switching positions. I think Moore is a great candidate to be sold at a below market rate. He's a 800+ OPS guy at league minimum at age 25... those are incredibly valuable.
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 18, 2012 9:41:56 GMT -5
A year ago, Moore was a 24-year old with a sub .320 OBP in Double-A. I'm guessing that his high SLG this year comes from Johnson being a good manager and knowing when to get the most out of him, and that number would crater if he were given 550 at bats. He looks like a sell high candidate for the Nats.
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Post by pokeefe363 on Oct 18, 2012 16:49:51 GMT -5
Dunne: www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=moore-001tylHe has consistently hit 20+ HR with an .800+OPS the last 3 years between A+ to MLB and will be making league minimum. If anything he would be a sell low because they would be trading him from a strong position of depth. I think blaming it on Johnson is strongly disingenuous to his skill-set.
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Post by jmei on Oct 18, 2012 18:21:22 GMT -5
Moore's strikeout rate scares me. A hitting prospect with his combination of high strikeouts and low walks indicates poor plate discipline and pitch recognition, which is evident in his scouting reports as well.
Hitters with that profile often find it difficult to succeed in the major leagues-- they can put up crazy power numbers in the minors because pitchers lack the command and advanced secondary stuff to fool them consistently, but their holes get exploited by major league pitchers and they can't tap into their natural power to the same degree. Think guys like Chris Carter (OAK) (although he walked twice as often as Moore in the minors) and our own Jarrod Saltalamacchia. Even the players who manage to put up similar power numbers have their value depressed by low batting averages and on-base percentages-- Mark Trumbo has averaged 30+ home runs the last two years, but his WARs have only been 2.4 and 2.5 (only slightly above-average) due to difficulty getting on base and poor defense (a problem Moore shares as well).
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 18, 2012 21:01:41 GMT -5
Quotes on Moore from last year's prospect handbooks:
BA - "Country strong" "plus-plus raw power" "He's so aggressive that he'll always have more than his share of strikeouts and never be more than a fringe-average hitter, but his premium power gives him a chance to be a valuable regular at first base." "Was a pleasant surprise with his reads and routes" in left, but below-avg speed and range." Grade 50 Medium , #16 in a deep system.
Sickels: "does one thing, but he does it well: hit home runs." "He crushes fastballs. ... he has problems with breaking balls and scouts weren't sure his plate discipline would hold up against better pitching (entering 2011 season)."
Sounds like Trumbo might be a good-ish comp. Oodles of power, question is whether he'll make enough contact to use it.
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Post by remember04 on Oct 18, 2012 21:09:49 GMT -5
Quotes on Moore from last year's prospect handbooks: BA - "Country strong" "plus-plus raw power" "He's so aggressive that he'll always have more than his share of strikeouts and never be more than a fringe-average hitter, but his premium power gives him a chance to be a valuable regular at first base." "Was a pleasant surprise with his reads and routes" in left, but below-avg speed and range." Grade 50 Medium , #16 in a deep system. Sickels: "does one thing, but he does it well: hit home runs." "He crushes fastballs. ... he has problems with breaking balls and scouts weren't sure his plate discipline would hold up against better pitching (entering 2011 season)." Sounds like Trumbo might be a good-ish comp. Oodles of power, question is whether he'll make enough contact to use it. Sounds like Wily Mo Cerrano to me.
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 18, 2012 21:49:35 GMT -5
When I've seen Moore, it seems he has real trouble keeping his weight back. It's not just pitch identification with him - his mechanics are such that, even if he identifies the curve, he has trouble hitting it. If he gets a fastball, that's fine, because he's a huge guy and all of his weight is moving forward, causing tremendous power When he doesn't get a fastball, there's not really a way he can physically adjust - he just swings awkwardly off his front foot.
I have to call them like I see, and Moore is just not a player I've been impressed with, and his high SLG/low OBP minor league numbers scream Quad-A. To me, the fact that he played acceptably well for the Nats in part time duty reflects more positively on Johnson than anything else.
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