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Post by jdb on May 27, 2014 12:08:40 GMT -5
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Post by jimed14 on May 27, 2014 12:25:20 GMT -5
Impossible to see this coming last winter |
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Post by jmei on May 27, 2014 14:27:05 GMT -5
Thought this was interesting-- projected AL final standings in graphical form, using Fangraphs' depth charts and a mix of ZiPS/Steamer projections:  |
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Post by James Dunne on May 27, 2014 14:36:14 GMT -5
This chart tells me that the second wild card team is going to be kind of crummy.
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Post by jimed14 on May 27, 2014 14:40:38 GMT -5
This chart tells me that the second wild card team is going to be kind of crummy. I hope it's us and we win the WS again with some ridiculous luck. |
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 27, 2014 16:00:13 GMT -5
This chart tells me that the second wild card team is going to be kind of crummy. I hope it's us and we win the WS again with some ridiculous luck. I have a problem believing this. I think what Fenway is trying to say is that in 2013 it was Lester, Lackey, and you felt alright about Buchholz, Doubront, and Peavy - a deep staff. This year you think about Buchholz, Doubront, and Peavy and you don't come away feeling optimistic. Buchholz and Peavy are batting practice pitchers at this point. Can Buchholz turn it around on the dime as he has done in the past? He looks very lost to me. Peavy simply looks like a guy who doesn't have it anymore and is extremely susceptible to hard contact. Unless they replace those guys and their offense suddenly comes alive, they look like sellers more than they look like contenders, even in a weak AL East. The Sox best trade assets are Lester and Uehara and frankly, if you think the Sox could bounce back in 2015, perhaps infused by youth and other acquisitions, and there's no reason not to believe they could, you'd definitely want Lester and Uehara extended, not dealt. So that leaves you roster pieces do deal and frankly they're not that valuable. I don't foresee the Sox holding a firesale, nor going all out (sacrificing prospects) for a quick fix to contend. I don't foresee an Iglesias for Peavy type deal this year. |
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Post by jimed14 on May 27, 2014 16:35:17 GMT -5
Think about how hilarious it would be for the Sox to get the 2nd WC, 10 games behind the Yankees who get the first WC and then we beat them with a JBJ 320 foot homer right down the line in RF in the 9th. Maybe right after a 5 bounce single to Jeter's left to put the tying run on base.
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Fire sale?
May 27, 2014 18:17:53 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by kungfuizzy on May 27, 2014 18:17:53 GMT -5
Jmei, I diagree about Uehara. He's become an elite reliever, and some good team with a bad bullpen is going to overpay for that type in July. I love watching him pitch so I'd hate to see him go, but if the Red Sox DO fall out of contention, he's the one player who it makes a lot of sense to deal. He'd bring a healthy return and he's less likely than many of the other parts to be on the next great Red Sox team. Toronto, Detroit and the Dodgers are all teams that I could see giving up a real prospect for Koji. Agreed 100% he would be at the top of the list to deal. Age and injury would be my main factors and I could see LA trading Joc Peterson for him push come to shove. Plus I think Boston could really still have a good pen even without Koji to stay somewhat watchable. But I would prefer this team stays the way it is they just need a spark. I think Webster or De La Rosa is that guy. |
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Post by jrffam05 on May 28, 2014 9:00:44 GMT -5
I can't see Koji going for Pederson or any top 50 prospect straight up. It is half a year of a relief pitcher, and they wouldn't be able to get a QO out of it. I think James had it right, that best case for Koji would be a fringe top 100 guy with a throw in. I'd compare that as the equivalent to Workman and Light.
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Post by jimed14 on May 28, 2014 9:32:45 GMT -5
I can't see Koji going for Pederson or any top 50 prospect straight up. It is half a year of a relief pitcher, and they wouldn't be able to get a QO out of it. I think James had it right, that best case for Koji would be a fringe top 100 guy with a throw in. I'd compare that as the equivalent to Workman and Light. Or maybe lottery ticket throw in, like Devers or Rijo. |
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Post by Oregon Norm on May 28, 2014 9:57:21 GMT -5
I've watched Pedersen quite a few times now. There's every reason in the world to think he'd be in left field except for the Crawford contract hung around the Dodgers'neck.He's a talent and he's going to be very good. Doubtful that Uehara would come close to prying him loose unless LA is still doing the same drug they were last time they dealt with the Sox.
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Post by jimed14 on May 28, 2014 10:04:28 GMT -5
I've watched Pedersen quite a few times now. There's every reason in the world to think he'd be in left field except for the Crawford contract hung around the Dodgers'neck.He's a talent and he's going to be very good. Doubtful that Uehara would come close to prying him loose unless LA is still doing the same drug they were last time they dealt with the Sox. Crawford looks like he'll be out awhile now, but Kemp was on the bench and will be taking LF. I have no idea what LA was thinking when they took Crawford. |
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 28, 2014 12:35:27 GMT -5
I've watched Pedersen quite a few times now. There's every reason in the world to think he'd be in left field except for the Crawford contract hung around the Dodgers'neck.He's a talent and he's going to be very good. Doubtful that Uehara would come close to prying him loose unless LA is still doing the same drug they were last time they dealt with the Sox. Crawford looks like he'll be out awhile now, but Kemp was on the bench and will be taking LF. I have no idea what LA was thinking when they took Crawford. They were probably thinking, "We really, re-ally, REALLY want Adrian Gonzalez!!!!" Then they hoped that Beckett would get healthy and bounce back and they hoped that Crawford would play like Tampa Crawford once he was freed from Boston, so they figured, we have the money and we're not losing that much in Webster and De La Rosa, so they pulled the trigger on the deal. |
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 3, 2014 13:31:04 GMT -5
So not to toot my own horn here (just kidding, that's exactly what I'm doing), I was doing the whole "this team should be selling" thing waaaaaaay before it was cool.
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Post by amfox1 on Jul 7, 2014 13:56:51 GMT -5
Here would be my quick fire sale thoughts:
I would target the sale/trade/release of the following six players:
Uehara - first to go, quick auction (SF, LAD, DET, LAA)
Peavy - second to go, quick auction (STL, PIT) (I had an analysis somewhere on this site but I cannot find it)
Drew - third to go (LAD)
Breslow - ??
Gomes - SEA, SF as possibilities
AJP - trade for a bag of balls (or a ball of bags); otherwise I'd likely DFA him after the trade deadline and bring up CVaz
I would then have WMB, X and Holt for the left side of the infield and Nava, Betts, JBJ and ShaneO for the outfield. Carp would be the backup 1B/DH. This all assumes WMB, ShaneO and Carp are healthy. Herrera goes to AAA.
RDLR joins the rotation full-time once Peavy is traded. Miller takes over as closer, and Layne joins the bullpen once Breslow is gone. The last bullpen arm either comes from AAA or the open market.
In addition to these six players, I would then quietly shop Lester and Doubront. I'd keep both unless overwhelmed with a trade offer (the Lester package would have to be substantially better than the draft pick).
I would look to re-sign Miller and Badenhop ASAP and extend Lackey. I would keep Mujica and hope he turns it around.
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871 
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Post by danr on Jul 7, 2014 14:38:10 GMT -5
Amfox1, I agree with many of your thoughts, and your general approach.
Some exceptions: I guess I am in the minority on Uehara. I would keep him and sign him up for another year, particularly if there is going to be substantial turnover in the starting rotation. But I also have thought that Miller could make a good closer. Certainly, he and Tazawa are the top two behind Uehara.
It occurs to me that to get any kind of decent return for Peavy, someone else of value may have to be included in the deal. Doubront comes to mind, or Middlebrooks, Carp or Nava, or some combination.
If Holt continues to hit, he has to have a regular position. Without power, it almost has to be an infield position, i.e. 3B.
I don't know how the Sox will be able to trade Drew. His value is dramatically less now than it was before he was signed. About the only prospect is a team that needs a really good fielding SS and can afford to have one who can't hit. You probably are right about LAD. The only other team I can think of is Detroit, and I don't think they want him.
I want to keep Lester and think it is the right thing for the Sox to do for many reasons, and they should pay what it costs to do it.
I don't like the way Mujica pitches. He doesn't look in control of himself and his command is poor. So I would get rid of him, by adding him to a deal of some kind. The Sox are so loaded with pitching prospects that there have to be better options there.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Jul 7, 2014 14:38:26 GMT -5
There is a significant revenue downside to having a firesale. If the FO gives up, many fans will also. TV ad revenue drops. Attendance potentially drops some. Intangible revenue drops ( business "goodwill"). I don't think the Sox will have a fire sale any time soon, even with the current situation.
A very strong case could be made for some prudent decisions though. We may want to see what we have with our AAA starters the remainder of this year, as compared to throwing them into the fire next year. That has significant franchise value both in terms of possible developmental improvement and player value enhancement for future trade projects. We should strongly consider trading Peavy and Doubront with that in mind. Doubront's value is not horrible, and we can probably replace him in house. Or trade a prospect instead if that makes more sense to the FO.
And Peavy is not going to get a QO in all likelihood at this point. It's possible if he finishes strong but he can probably be replaced also. There have top be teams out there wanting either of these guys.
And to me, why not trade Gomes and let Betts play for God's sake. Move that PR robot. Done. Gone. He sure as hell isn't getting a QO. Time for a change of scene. We are moving in a different direction. One without combat helmets.
I don't see us moving Lester because that would be giving up and he is probably worth a QO. If traded, the team he goes to doesn't get the draft pick. that effects his value. We keep Lester through year end at least.
With the right deal I'd move Koji. And that might well mean a top 30 prospect somewhere with the right team. He's still a very cost effective and great closer. Personally, I'd try to extend him if possible. If not, try to move him because he's worth something still.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 7, 2014 14:45:24 GMT -5
I can't decided which phrase is sillier. "Lester is probably worth a QO" "Peavy is not going to get a QO in all likelihood".
I mean why qualify them?
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Post by mredsox89 on Jul 8, 2014 1:25:05 GMT -5
I think a lot of it hinges on Lester. If they are able to keep him for the long term, you might see them not go full blowout mode with a chance to contend in 2015. If they hold him, you prob see them keep Kojo
But if they move Lester, I think we see many pieces go.
Either way, if any team offers anything for AJP, Peavy, or Drew you move them, even if you eat the entire cost, because it opens a spot for a guy that might actually be on the 25 man roster in 2015.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 8, 2014 9:14:24 GMT -5
I wish I knew what Buchholz' real value is. It's probably impossible to guess at this point.
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Post by ctfisher on Jul 8, 2014 10:52:19 GMT -5
There is a significant revenue downside to having a firesale. If the FO gives up, many fans will also. TV ad revenue drops. Attendance potentially drops some. Intangible revenue drops ( business "goodwill"). I don't think the Sox will have a fire sale any time soon, even with the current situation. I think most fans have pretty much given up. I was all for trying to salvage the season 2 weeks ago, but it's pretty clear that this team just can't hit. At all. And the Red Sox aren't going to lose sponsors, I imagine most of the ad spots on NESN and around Fenway are sold before the season, so I'm not sure that this matters. Honestly, even if it did, they sell out pretty much every game with some of the highest ticket prices in the league, they make tons of money off memorabilia, and they own most of NESN. The Red Sox aren't going to try to stay semi-competitive if it hurts the team in the long run just to squeeze a couple more million in revenue out of this team; they're better off doing whatever they can to position us to be good next year |
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Post by jrffam05 on Jul 8, 2014 11:01:04 GMT -5
Instead of looking to sell these pieces off one by one, I would seriously consider packaging most of them together and looking for one big haul. Oakland set the precedent. It is obvious that a team cannot be competitive every year, especially a medium to small market team, and they have to pick their time to win. All we have to do is convince one team that now is that time, and we leverage all of them against each other. Look at Baltimore and Toronto for example. Now is their time to win. Ray, Yankees, and Red Sox are all weak, their payrolls have never been higher, and they both have some key players who are declining, starting to get expensive, or are becoming free agents. Now is their time to win.
It is hard to justify trading a chunk of future production for Lester alone, because he alone over a half season does not dramatically increase your chances of winning. Same goes for Uehara, Peavy, or anyone else. But we have the pieces to address multiple holes on a team, and that might make it worth the price.
I put Lester, Peavy, Uehara together, I add in a Gomes, a Catcher, Breslow, Drew based on what team I am speaking too. I also make players like Doubrount, Carp, Workman, Ranaudo, Barnes available to tack on, to give the other team some type of future value. And of course we have the ability to add cash or take on cash to better our return. LAA, SEA, KC, Balt, Toronto, SFG, STL, are all teams where that package could greatly increase playoff potential. All we need is for one to bite.
Probably doesn't work, but at least we won't be nibbling at minor pieces who will probably fall through.
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Post by jdb on Jul 8, 2014 20:46:55 GMT -5
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 10, 2014 14:36:16 GMT -5
Nick Cafardo ?@nickcafardo
Great to see Pirates GM Neal Huntington at Fenway.
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Post by amfox1 on Jul 10, 2014 14:45:25 GMT -5
One team with whom the Red Sox (IMO) match up well is Cincinnati. They need a SS, a LF, bullpen help and (if Bailey is seriously hurt - he left today's game with a knee issue) a starting pitcher.
They may also fall out of the race quickly with Votto, Phillips and perhaps Bailey on the shelf.
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