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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 26, 2014 13:30:27 GMT -5
At any rate, I think the only way this team "contends" for a top-10 pick is if it has a fire sale at the trade deadline and/or shuts down injured veterans and gives not-entirely-ready prospects (think the Pawtucket pitchers, Vazquez, Cecchini, Brentz, Lavarnway, etc.) significant playing time. They're not as bad as the last ten games, and they're much closer to a true-talent 88 win team than a true-talent 66 win team (which is where their current .408 winning percentage would put them). So what's the case against doing that?
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Post by jmei on May 26, 2014 13:48:45 GMT -5
The only players that the Red Sox can trade that wouldn't involve punting 2015 have either been terrible this year (Peavy, Pierzynski) or just aren't very valuable (Gomes, Ross, the non-Koji relievers). Lester (and maybe Uehara) is more valuable as a potential re-sign than as a trade piece. Victorino and Napoli are more valuable to the Red Sox than to another team-- they're pretty expensive, teams will be wary of their injuries (so you might as well keep them and hope they stay healthy), and there aren't any 1B/RF prospects behind them that desperately need MLB time behind them. Lackey're minimum-salary 2015 option is hugely valuable if they're to contend next year.
I mean, sure, if a team wants to trade a package centered around a true blue-chip prospect at a position of need (read: Archie Bradley or Taijuan Walker or Gray/Butler or Gausman/Bundy or Aaron Sanchez or Joc Pederson or Giolito or one of the young St. Louis pitchers) for Lackey or Lester, I'm listening, but I'm not moving them just to move them.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 26, 2014 15:26:19 GMT -5
I get that you're not going to extract a ton of value from the current roster, but with the season pretty much a wash at this point, I don't see any reason not to try to trade some of the secondary pieces. For instance I'd rather just leave Xander at shortstop and see what he can figure out there, and some team might be pretty interested in a free/discounted Stephan Drew. Teams still overpay for closer mystique and with Koji being 74 years old I'm not that excited about bringing him back in 2015. Maybe throw Middlebrooks in as a secondary piece in one of these deals and see if either of Cecchini or Holt can stick at third. Are any of these types of deals going to make a big difference? Probably not, but maybe you get lucky at hit on a decent player or two, and if the risk is going from an 82 win team team, that's essentially no risk at all so why not?
(And I know it'll never happen but I'd love a trade of Lester followed by re-signing him in the offseason.)
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Post by jmei on May 26, 2014 16:01:07 GMT -5
Well, moving your closer and the guy you signed mid-season right before everything went to pieces is not exactly a fire sale, is it?
My point is it doesn't make a ton of sense to move the veteran core of the team-- think Lester, Lackey, Pedroia, Ortiz, Napoli, Victorino-- and so if the Red Sox are sellers at the deadline, it's going to be more moving of peripheral pieces (think bullpen arms (including maybe Uehara), Drew) that doesn't move the needle much both in terms of expected record down the stretch (i.e., they're still going to win enough games to avoid a top-10 draft pick) and trade return.
I do disagree with trading Middlebrooks. His trade value is at its lowest right now, and what better time to give him extended at-bats in the major leagues than a potentially lost season? Cecchini still has work to do in Triple-A, and Holt's upside is a poor man's Alberto Callaspo.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 26, 2014 17:15:36 GMT -5
We may be talking past each other here. I'm not in favor of moving the veteran core either (although I could go either way with Victorino or Napoli, not that anyone is particularly likely to want them at this point). As far as getting a top ten pick, well, I'm just more down on this team than you are. I think it's a possibility even if they do nothing.
Oh, and I've been hearing this "Middlebrooks is at his lowest value right now" thing for quite a while now and he keeps proving everyone wrong.
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Post by chavopepe2 on May 26, 2014 17:19:14 GMT -5
I'm just going to go on record as saying this team is much better than they have played so far. They will go on a run and compete for a playoff spot in a weak division with 80-something wins.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on May 26, 2014 17:30:53 GMT -5
I'm just going to go on record as saying this team is much better than they have played so far. They will go on a run and compete for a playoff spot in a weak division with 80-something wins. Totally agree. MId 80's will get you a sniff of the postseason for the 5th wild card spot, and they are still capable of that. More than anything the veterans (Nap, Buchholz, catching etc..et) needs to play like they are capable of.
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Post by jrffam05 on May 26, 2014 18:23:07 GMT -5
I have to agree. This season isn't over yet. If the AL East has been performing closer to expectations it might be. We have a solid pitching staff as is, and although the lineup has been under performing it still has some firepower.
Anyway, even if we were to start selling it absolutely will not start happening till at least July 15th.
I always wondering about the possibility of trading a player in a walk year and resigning him. I remember Cole Hammels said something about how even if he was traded he would consider resigning with the Phillies in the offseason. That would be best case scenario, to trade Lester and resign him at the "discounted" rate.
One of the trades I pondered preseason would be Lackey for Joc Pederson and another prospect. I was thinking Urias and Pederson, but I doubt Dodgers would move either one of them, so trading both seems out of the question.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 26, 2014 19:12:59 GMT -5
I've already done the math on this elsewhere so I'm not going to repeat it, but getting back into playoff contention requires the Red Sox to start playing close to .600 ball right now. There's no way they're a true talent .600 team. You've got two reliable starters, no good outfielders and a team that's been outscored by it's opponents by a significant margin almost two full months into the season.
(by the way I know this thread was already split off from another thread but it seems like what we actually need here is a "how good are the Red Sox really?" thread).
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Post by chavopepe2 on May 26, 2014 19:27:59 GMT -5
A .571 pace gets them to 85 wins. I think that could be enough. The east is terrible.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 26, 2014 19:39:33 GMT -5
A team that should be 22-27 by it's pythagorean record is going to start playing .571 ball all of a sudden? When does that ever happen?
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Post by chavopepe2 on May 26, 2014 19:45:15 GMT -5
Do you really think it is that unheard of for a team to have a bad 49 game stretch and then play well the rest of the year? This is obviously not the easiest thing to research, but that doesn't seem too crazy to me.
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Post by jmei on May 26, 2014 19:49:04 GMT -5
A team that should be 22-27 by it's pythagorean record is going to start playing .571 ball all of a sudden? When does that ever happen? The 2013 Dodgers were 30-42 (.417) on June 21st. They went 62-28 (.688) the rest of the way, ended up with 92 wins, and easily won the division. It's improbable, but not impossible.
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Post by chavopepe2 on May 26, 2014 20:01:50 GMT -5
Kansas City also started 43-49 (.467) and finished 43-27 (.614).
Edit: Here are a few teams just in the last few years that started slow and still finished with winning records:
Year, Team, Record as of 5/26, final wins
2013, LAD, 20-28, 92 2013, KC, 21-26, 86 2012, MIL, 19-27, 83 2011, LAD, 22-29, 82 2010, CHW, 20-26, 88
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Post by FenwayFanatic on May 26, 2014 21:16:38 GMT -5
Well, moving your closer and the guy you signed mid-season right before everything went to pieces is not exactly a fire sale, is it? My point is it doesn't make a ton of sense to move the veteran core of the team-- think Lester, Lackey, Pedroia, Ortiz, Napoli, Victorino-- and so if the Red Sox are sellers at the deadline, it's going to be more moving of peripheral pieces (think bullpen arms (including maybe Uehara), Drew) that doesn't move the needle much both in terms of expected record down the stretch (i.e., they're still going to win enough games to avoid a top-10 draft pick) and trade return. I do disagree with trading Middlebrooks. His trade value is at its lowest right now, and what better time to give him extended at-bats in the major leagues than a potentially lost season? Cecchini still has work to do in Triple-A, and Holt's upside is a poor man's Alberto Callaspo. I prefer the term mini-firesale. No one is arguing to trade the guys I bolded. Also, it does make total sense to move Lester if Sox management doesn't plan on keeping him. As fenway said, Koji is really old and injury prone. Drew - makes total sense to trade him. Gomes, Capuano - yep again there too. AJP hasn't been that bad and should have some value. Part of it will be about saving money and giving the young guys some playing time I think.
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Post by mainesox on May 26, 2014 22:08:11 GMT -5
Well, moving your closer and the guy you signed mid-season right before everything went to pieces is not exactly a fire sale, is it? My point is it doesn't make a ton of sense to move the veteran core of the team-- think Lester, Lackey, Pedroia, Ortiz, Napoli, Victorino-- and so if the Red Sox are sellers at the deadline, it's going to be more moving of peripheral pieces (think bullpen arms (including maybe Uehara), Drew) that doesn't move the needle much both in terms of expected record down the stretch (i.e., they're still going to win enough games to avoid a top-10 draft pick) and trade return. I do disagree with trading Middlebrooks. His trade value is at its lowest right now, and what better time to give him extended at-bats in the major leagues than a potentially lost season? Cecchini still has work to do in Triple-A, and Holt's upside is a poor man's Alberto Callaspo. I prefer the term mini-firesale. No one is arguing to trade the guys I bolded. Also, it does make total sense to move Lester if Sox management doesn't plan on keeping him. As fenway said, Koji is really old and injury prone. Drew - makes total sense to trade him. Gomes, Capuano - yep again there too. AJP hasn't been that bad and should have some value. Part of it will be about saving money and giving the young guys some playing time I think. I would trade Victorino and Napoli, and I'd be willing to listen on Lackey because I think there's a chance someone could make it worth it if they're trying to make a playoff run and need pitching bad enough.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 26, 2014 22:10:20 GMT -5
Kansas City also started 43-49 (.467) and finished 43-27 (.614). Edit: Here are a few teams just in the last few years that started slow and still finished with winning records: Year, Team, Record as of 5/26, final wins 2013, LAD, 20-28, 92 2013, KC, 21-26, 86 2012, MIL, 19-27, 83 2011, LAD, 22-29, 82 2010, CHW, 20-26, 88 It would be interesting to look into the circumstances surrounding these teams and their bad starts/good finishes. How many of them were underperforming their pythagorean records at the time, or had large numbers of players underperforming at the time? And how many of these turnarounds required major talent infusions, either in the form of call-ups or guys returning from the DL? The Dodgers last year obviously got Puig mid-year, and if I recall correctly Hanley came off the DL around the same time and had the best half-season of his career. Getting from 20-28 required them to have one of the best 50 game stretches in baseball history. In other words, it wasn't just a team distributing it's wins unevenly, it was a team bringing talent onto the roster mid-season that made it a fundamentally different team. I don't see anything like that coming for the Red Sox. Obviously there's other examples of these kinds of turnarounds and I don't remember the circumstances of those seasons as clearly. I don't really have the gumption to dig into them at the moment but it's something I'm curious about. Clearly it's not impossible for a team to start 20-29 and turn things around, but I still feel like it's impossible for THIS team to do that. There's a good chance that they don't have a rotation and it's all but certain that they don't have an outfield. And I don't know how they can sustain the kind of performance needed to dig themselves out of the hole they're in without those things.
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Post by jmei on May 26, 2014 22:14:40 GMT -5
Well, moving your closer and the guy you signed mid-season right before everything went to pieces is not exactly a fire sale, is it? My point is it doesn't make a ton of sense to move the veteran core of the team-- think Lester, Lackey, Pedroia, Ortiz, Napoli, Victorino-- and so if the Red Sox are sellers at the deadline, it's going to be more moving of peripheral pieces (think bullpen arms (including maybe Uehara), Drew) that doesn't move the needle much both in terms of expected record down the stretch (i.e., they're still going to win enough games to avoid a top-10 draft pick) and trade return. I do disagree with trading Middlebrooks. His trade value is at its lowest right now, and what better time to give him extended at-bats in the major leagues than a potentially lost season? Cecchini still has work to do in Triple-A, and Holt's upside is a poor man's Alberto Callaspo. I prefer the term mini-firesale. No one is arguing to trade the guys I bolded. Also, it does make total sense to move Lester if Sox management doesn't plan on keeping him. As fenway said, Koji is really old and injury prone. Drew - makes total sense to trade him. Gomes, Capuano - yep again there too. AJP hasn't been that bad and should have some value. Part of it will be about saving money and giving the young guys some playing time I think. Other than Lester (who I think the front office genuinely wants to re-sign, even at market rates), the only one of those names with any real trade value (i.e., I'd expect to get a player in return who might crack the team top 15) is Uehara, and even he barely qualifies. And if that's the case (and assuming the team is within at least four or five games of a playoff spot in July), why not hold onto them and see if they can go on a tear? The ownership won't be sweating the money saved, and I'm not sure two months of MLB playing time for Brentz or Wilson or Vazquez (or two months of SS time for Xander) is worth whatever percentage of playoff odds you'd be giving up.
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Post by jmei on May 26, 2014 22:26:34 GMT -5
There's a good chance that they don't have a rotation and it's all but certain that they don't have an outfield. And I don't know how they can sustain the kind of performance needed to dig themselves out of the hole they're in without those things. Both Buchholz and Doubront have had terrible streaks followed by terrific streaks in their recent past, while Peavy has a solid enough track record. Even if those guys fail, the Red Sox system is loaded with MLB-ready starting pitchers, and you never know when you might catch lightning in a bottle. As for the outfield, there's a pretty good chance the Nava/Gomes platoon gives you above-average production at LF and that Victorino comes back in the minimum 15 days and solidifies RF. Bradley has been awful with the bat, but considering his defense, he only needs to improve a little bit to be an acceptable (read: above replacement level) starter.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on May 26, 2014 22:48:54 GMT -5
Bradley looked really good in CF today. I hope they stick it out with him and he figures it out.
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Post by jrffam05 on May 27, 2014 6:16:49 GMT -5
We are 8 games behind with 112 to play. We basically have to make up 2 games a month.
Fan graphs has us at 12.5 % chance to win the division. That was in the 20's a coupke of days (and loses) ago and was still higher than the yanks. We still statistically have a better chance than Baltimore.
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Post by James Dunne on May 27, 2014 7:52:40 GMT -5
Jmei, I diagree about Uehara. He's become an elite reliever, and some good team with a bad bullpen is going to overpay for that type in July. I love watching him pitch so I'd hate to see him go, but if the Red Sox DO fall out of contention, he's the one player who it makes a lot of sense to deal. He'd bring a healthy return and he's less likely than many of the other parts to be on the next great Red Sox team. Toronto, Detroit and the Dodgers are all teams that I could see giving up a real prospect for Koji.
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Post by jimed14 on May 27, 2014 8:07:25 GMT -5
A team that should be 22-27 by it's pythagorean record is going to start playing .571 ball all of a sudden? When does that ever happen? Try not to make projections at the end of long streaks. Weren't we 1/2 game out of first a few weeks ago?
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Post by jmei on May 27, 2014 8:13:47 GMT -5
I just can't remember the last trade for a reliever on an expiring contract that netted an actually great prospect. For instance, the Orioles gave up Nick Delmonico for K-Rod last year, while the Tigers traded Danry Vasquez for Jose Veras. Now, both of those guys are legit prospects, but neither has cracked a top-100 list. Uehara should command a slightly better return, but I still think the best-case scenario is that the Red Sox get a back-end-top-100-type prospect (and maybe a couple lottery-ticket-types). That's a great return for two months of a reliever, but it's not a transformational bounty.
That said, Uehara has looked meaningfully worse this year, and going forward I think he's more just your run-of-the-mill great reliever rather than the overworldly one he was last year. He'll be 40 next year, so re-signing him (likely by offering him the QO) is not necessarily a great bet. I agree that if the Red Sox are scuffling, it makes total sense to trade him, even if the return is good but not great. But if the Red Sox are three or four games out in July? Might make more sense to keep him and see what happens.
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Post by James Dunne on May 27, 2014 8:50:44 GMT -5
I just can't remember the last trade for a reliever on an expiring contract that netted an actually great prospect. For instance, the Orioles gave up Nick Delmonico for K-Rod last year, while the Tigers traded Danry Vasquez for Jose Veras. Now, both of those guys are legit prospects, but neither has cracked a top-100 list. Uehara should command a slightly better return, but I still think the best-case scenario is that the Red Sox get a back-end-top-100-type prospect (and maybe a couple lottery-ticket-types). That's a great return for two months of a reliever, but it's not a transformational bounty. That said, Uehara has looked meaningfully worse this year, and going forward I think he's more just your run-of-the-mill great reliever rather than the overworldly one he was last year. He'll be 40 next year, so re-signing him (likely by offering him the QO) is not necessarily a great bet. I agree that if the Red Sox are scuffling, it makes total sense to trade him, even if the return is good but not great. But if the Red Sox are three or four games out in July? Might make more sense to keep him and see what happens. Yeah, I was speaking more from the hypthetical of the team falling out of contention. Supposing if they can swing a back-half Top 100 guy and a lottery ticket for half a season of Uehara, I'd be thrilled. For example, would the Dodgers were willing to do something like Zach Lee and Jacob Scavuzzo? Lee isn't a top prospect anymore but still has a solid chance to be a #4 - he's been around so long that it's easy to forget that he is still only 22. I'd put him behind Barnes, Owens and De La Rosa but ahead of Workman, Webster and Ranaudo. I'm not expecting the Dodgers to panic and trade Urias and Pederson for Koji, I just think he's the type the Sox would get a real prospect for.
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