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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 10, 2014 15:00:13 GMT -5
One team with whom the Red Sox (IMO) match up well is Cincinnati. They need a SS, a LF, bullpen help and (if Bailey is seriously hurt - he left today's game with a knee issue) a starting pitcher. They may also fall out of the race quickly with Votto, Phillips and perhaps Bailey on the shelf. Love Winker as a power-hitting OF, and I assume Stephenson is untouchable. My guess is Lackey + more parts would be required to get Winker.
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ianrs
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Post by ianrs on Jul 10, 2014 15:02:48 GMT -5
Nick Cafardo ?@nickcafardo Great to see Pirates GM Neal Huntington at Fenway. This is absolutely excellent news. At Lester's start, no less. I'm feeling a Josh Bell+ for Lester swaparoo.
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jdb
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Post by jdb on Jul 10, 2014 15:05:02 GMT -5
Also with the Reds and Cards beat up maybe the Pirates go for it. Both Lester and Lackey would be appealing to them and maybe we could eat Drews salary to clear the SS position so we can see if Xander can handle it.n
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ianrs
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Post by ianrs on Jul 10, 2014 15:08:17 GMT -5
Also with the Reds and Cards beat up maybe the Pirates go for it. Both Lester and Lackey would be appealing to them and maybe we could eat Drews salary to clear the SS position so we can see if Xander can handle it.n This is a good point as well. Might be able to package Drew with Lester and some $$ to get an even better package back. Drew would make an ideal platoon buddy for Jordy Mercer, who hits much better against lefties than righties.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jul 10, 2014 17:20:58 GMT -5
Bell makes me nervous a little. His in game power lags behind his raw for sure. He's a bad fielder, either LF or 1B. His bat won't play that well 1B without significant pickup in the power department (BP scouting report says he isn't using his legs enough and is relying on his strength). He's also very aggressive.
That being said, he's only 21. His K rates are impressive, and his large frame would give our coaching staff a chance to tap into more of his raw power. His ISO isn't terrible, but you'd like to see it closer to or above .200.
Maybe packaging in Koji could help us get Glasnow. I can't think of any other Pitt specs that make sense for us.
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Post by bentossaurus on Jul 10, 2014 19:58:22 GMT -5
Ok, so I haven't read all the threads in this subforum but I've seen mentions of something like what I'm about to propose.
In terms of talent value the two biggest assets Boston has are Lester and Koji. The two, together, as a tandem vastly improve the chances of a team not only reaching the playoffs but also winning playoff games. The difference between starting Lester or the current #4 starter in a playoff game plus the chance of shortening games by one inning by deploying Koji, can turn an also-ran into a favorite and a favorite into a set in stone WS winner.
So the best chance of maximizing returning talent on a trade would be to package them both together and try to fetch an elite prospect, the ultimate long term value for short term glory trade.
So looking at the teams with playoff chances what does everyone think we could get? Would a deal with the Cardinals for Taveras (they've seen first hand what the deployment of that duo can do in a playoff series) be feasible? What other teams with truly elite prospects and playoff chances could we approach in this manner?
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 10, 2014 20:22:58 GMT -5
Ok, so I haven't read all the threads in this subforum but I've seen mentions of something like what I'm about to propose. In terms of talent value the two biggest assets Boston has are Lester and Koji. The two, together, as a tandem vastly improve the chances of a team not only reaching the playoffs but also winning playoff games. The difference between starting Lester or the current #4 starter in a playoff game plus the chance of shortening games by one inning by deploying Koji, can turn an also-ran into a favorite and a favorite into a set in stone WS winner. So the best chance of maximizing returning talent on a trade would be to package them both together and try to fetch an elite prospect, the ultimate long term value for short term glory trade. So looking at the teams with playoff chances what does everyone think we could get? Would a deal with the Cardinals for Taveras (they've seen first hand what the deployment of that duo can do in a playoff series) be feasible? What other teams with truly elite prospects and playoff chances could we approach in this manner? There are a lot of teams that seem to be in the market, but if I am BC, I am looking at the following four teams: -St. Louis (Craig, Grichuk, Piscotty, Taveras) NEEDS: Catcher, IF, SP, RP-Cincy (Ervin, Winker) NEEDS: IF, SP?-Dodgers (Joc Peterson, Urias) NEEDS: SP-Pittsburgh (Josh Bell) NEEDS: SP, SS, RP
If I had to guess, Taveras would be pretty close to untouchable.
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Post by bentossaurus on Jul 10, 2014 22:01:47 GMT -5
Someone else who came to my mind, the Washington Nationals and Lucas Giolito.
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Post by amfox1 on Jul 10, 2014 22:12:10 GMT -5
Packaging stars (a) generally doesn't work and (b) generally doesn't maximize value.
I don't see STL as a primary player for Lester or Uehara. LAD reportedly has interest in Uehara, Miller, Badenhop and Breslow and could have interest in our starters.
***
Here are my current thoughts on teams who may have interest in our players:
Lester (SP) - strong overall interest if put on the block (playoff teams only) Lackey (SP) - strong overall interest if put on the block (all teams) Uehara/Badenhop (RHRP) - LAD, BAL (Uehara only), DET, PIT, LAA, SFO, TOR, OAK (Uehara only) Miller/Breslow (LHRP) - LAD, STL, ATL (Miller only), WAS, LAA, DET, KC Peavy (SP) - STL, ATL, MIL, CIN, LAD, PIT, SFO Gomes (RHH) - SEA, KC Drew (SS) - DET, MIL, SEA, CIN, STL Holt (UT) - strong overall interest if put on the block (all teams) Carp (LHH) - TOR, MIL, OAK, SFO
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Post by curiousle on Jul 10, 2014 23:09:03 GMT -5
I agree with amfox on packaging stars and unless the team that gets Lester gets his name on a long term, rich contract-the offers won't be there. The teams that could afford Lester are probably L.A.D., L.A.A. Detroit, maybe Seattle and San Francisco.....you would have to deal Lester to a pretty rich, primary team to really get back the prospects you want....
I also like amfox's list of Holt-he's a nice piece, but it might be a good time to sell high on him to help us get a player/prospect that might be a better long term fit, I think that's a good add to the list which had not been mentioned previously.
Not to get off the thread, but BC would have to give some consideration of keeping 1 of Lester or Lackey. ie). if you can't keep Lester, I think BC should extend Lackey and vice versa-sign Lester-then deal Lackey. I don't think you can go into next year contending without one of those arms extended and you need a stable vet in the rotation to help the young guys, and support Buch. Clay alone with young arms and everyone on the site will want us to sign a quality vet. I think it's a must that one of them stay-the risk is too big otherwise. My pref. is to deal Lester and sign Lackey for 2 years plus an option for $48MM.
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Post by jmei on Jul 10, 2014 23:28:18 GMT -5
I didn't think packaging multiple veterans for a top-tier prospect was a viable option, but then Chicago did exactly that to get a consensus top-10 prospect from Oakland. I think there's at least a chance other teams follow that lead and try to use one top prospect to get multiple win-now pieces. Even if a team didn't have a great shot at extending Lester, he's the kind of guy who is good enough that you might give up real prospect value for him even if he's strictly a rental (think the Brewers with Sabathia or the Astros with Beltran).
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 11, 2014 18:02:51 GMT -5
Nick Cafardo ?@nickcafardo 3 things learned: Red Sox would prefer to keep Bogearts at 3rd. They also want to keep Uehara for next season. Can deal Drew if he hits.
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jdb
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Post by jdb on Jul 12, 2014 8:46:01 GMT -5
Nick Cafardo ?@nickcafardo 3 things learned: Red Sox would prefer to keep Bogearts at 3rd. They also want to keep Uehara for next season. Can deal Drew if he hits. Koji to me seems to be the most logical piece to deal.
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Post by ausox on Jul 12, 2014 9:58:03 GMT -5
Nick Cafardo ?@nickcafardo 3 things learned: Red Sox would prefer to keep Bogearts at 3rd. They also want to keep Uehara for next season. Can deal Drew if he hits. Koji to me seems to be the most logical piece to deal. I have no real basis for this other than gut feel, but to me Koji seems like someone who could be a possibility to re-sign as a free agent if we do trade him to a contender. Would Lester, Koji, Drew and cash to the Pirates for Bell, Glasnow and Meadows be too unrealistic? None of them are top 20 prospects but they are all top 50 guys. I think Bell, Glasnow and some mid level prospects is certainly possible but asking for Meadows also may be pushing it, even if they already have 3 excellent outfielders. Although if Pittsburgh decides this is the year to go for it you never know what they might do to try and win it all. With the Brewers faltering lately, the Cards with injury concerns and no real stand out teams in baseball this might be the perfect time for them to roll the dice. Adding an Ace, a top quality closer and a veteran SS would certainly make them legitimate contenders, even if only for 1 year and that has a lot of value.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jul 12, 2014 10:24:45 GMT -5
I have no real basis for this other than gut feel, but to me Koji seems like someone who could be a possibility to re-sign as a free agent if we do trade him to a contender. Would Lester, Koji, Drew and cash to the Pirates for Bell, Glasnow and Meadows be too unrealistic? None of them are top 20 prospects but they are all top 50 guys. I think Bell, Glasnow and some mid level prospects is certainly possible but asking for Meadows also may be pushing it, even if they already have 3 excellent outfielders. Although if Pittsburgh decides this is the year to go for it you never know what they might do to try and win it all. With the Brewers faltering lately, the Cards with injury concerns and no real stand out teams in baseball this might be the perfect time for them to roll the dice. Adding an Ace, a top quality closer and a veteran SS would certainly make them legitimate contenders, even if only for 1 year and that has a lot of value. I highly doubt Pittsburgh would want to deal 3 top prospects for 3 rentals.
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Post by amfox1 on Jul 12, 2014 10:54:56 GMT -5
I have no real basis for this other than gut feel, but to me Koji seems like someone who could be a possibility to re-sign as a free agent if we do trade him to a contender. Would Lester, Koji, Drew and cash to the Pirates for Bell, Glasnow and Meadows be too unrealistic? None of them are top 20 prospects but they are all top 50 guys. I think Bell, Glasnow and some mid level prospects is certainly possible but asking for Meadows also may be pushing it, even if they already have 3 excellent outfielders. Although if Pittsburgh decides this is the year to go for it you never know what they might do to try and win it all. With the Brewers faltering lately, the Cards with injury concerns and no real stand out teams in baseball this might be the perfect time for them to roll the dice. Adding an Ace, a top quality closer and a veteran SS would certainly make them legitimate contenders, even if only for 1 year and that has a lot of value. Yes, it would be too unrealistic. PIT is not taking on three players, PIT is not taking on the pro-rated amount of $30mm in salary (and the Red Sox are not going to subsidize Lester and Uehara in any trade) and, therefore, we don't even have to get into what PIT is giving up. I'm not sure Drew would interest PIT - in my analysis (see several posts up), I did not think SS was a major concern.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jul 12, 2014 12:45:19 GMT -5
Yes, it would be too unrealistic. PIT is not taking on three players, PIT is not taking on the pro-rated amount of $30mm in salary ( and the Red Sox are not going to subsidize Lester and Uehara in any trade) and, therefore, we don't even have to get into what PIT is giving up. I'm not sure Drew would interest PIT - in my analysis (see several posts up), I did not think SS was a major concern. Why are you so certain this is true?
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Post by amfox1 on Jul 12, 2014 13:18:31 GMT -5
Yes, it would be too unrealistic. PIT is not taking on three players, PIT is not taking on the pro-rated amount of $30mm in salary ( and the Red Sox are not going to subsidize Lester and Uehara in any trade) and, therefore, we don't even have to get into what PIT is giving up. I'm not sure Drew would interest PIT - in my analysis (see several posts up), I did not think SS was a major concern. Why are you so certain this is true? Basic supply and demand. They are not giveaways. If Uehara is put on the market, 8-10 teams will call immediately. With Lester, it's probably 4-6. At their current salaries of 4.25mm and 13mm, they will cost (assuming 1/3 of the season) approx. 1.41mm and 4.33mm. Teams shouldn't have a problem absorbing those salaries - even the smaller market teams generally hold back some money for midseason acquisitions.
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Fire sale?
Jul 12, 2014 17:03:56 GMT -5
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Post by bigpupp on Jul 12, 2014 17:03:56 GMT -5
The Reds have both Votto and Phillips on the DL for possibly the rest of the year. Am I crazy to think there is a match there with Carp and Drew? In addition to Jesse Winker who would be a great get, they have a few other interesting outfield prospects that aren't playing great this year in Phillip Ervin and Yorman Rodriguez.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 12, 2014 22:22:56 GMT -5
I'm not sure Drew would interest PIT - in my analysis (see several posts up), I did not think SS was a major concern. Jordy Mercer is a career .241 / .289 / .353 vs RHP, and is .237 / .281 / .336 this year. Drew is .272 / .340 / .448, and is a better defender. That's a very large upgrade for two-thirds of your games.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jul 13, 2014 0:03:30 GMT -5
Basic supply and demand. They are not giveaways. If Uehara is put on the market, 8-10 teams will call immediately. With Lester, it's probably 4-6. At their current salaries of 4.25mm and 13mm, they will cost (assuming 1/3 of the season) approx. 1.41mm and 4.33mm. Teams shouldn't have a problem absorbing those salaries - even the smaller market teams generally hold back some money for midseason acquisitions. At 1.41mm and 4.33mm you have established a level of indifference to which a counterpart team would be willing to exchange a prospect. (example: prospect A is valued by team A at 1.27mm therefore they should be willing to part with prospect A if the Red Sox are willing to add 1.41mm into the exchange) These types of exchanges tend to be more common on an open market (like professional soccer) as there are no restrictions on how much a team can spend for a given player and 'bartering' seems to be an ancient, yet fun, form of reciprocity. But as major league baseball doesn't restrict the paying for players up to the point where a team is exchanging a higher paid player and paying a portion of their salary; I think it could be quite reasonable in order for the Red Sox to substitute money underneath their self-determined salary threshold in order to obtain a prospect. Then again - I'm not the one writing the check. I realize there is a better chance that you will be right than wrong on this matter, but I had asked because I thought there may have been something in regard to the Red Sox payroll or contracts of which I was unaware.
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Post by mgoetze on Jul 13, 2014 5:45:41 GMT -5
I have no real basis for this other than gut feel, but to me Koji seems like someone who could be a possibility to re-sign as a free agent if we do trade him to a contender. Lester might want to spend the entire rest of his life in Boston but Uehara, to me, seems to be on a tour of the US with the plan of eventually returning to Japan, so I could certainly see him being OK with such an arrangement.
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Post by jrffam05 on Jul 14, 2014 10:18:58 GMT -5
There has been at least three (off the top of my head) package trades in recent years. BOS - LAD, MIA - TOR, CHI - OAK. Now the first two trades had a salary dump element to it, but it was the same general principal, TOR and LAD saw the players contracts coming in as unfavorable but they found themselves to be better teams with them than without them. Oakland, especially if they win this year, set a precedent that half measures really won't do.
Looking just at the AL, Baltimore, Toronto, and LAA really stand out to me, as teams that have multiple holes and are in a dogfight for the division. None of these teams projecte to be much better three years from now than their teams today. They are also seeing down years from the power houses Yankees, Red Sox, Rangers (and small market Tampa). Baltimore hasn't won the division since 1997 and Toronto since 1993.
Adding a player like Peavy or Jorge Del la Rossa, or even one of Uehara or Lester doesn't add significantly to any teams playoff odds at this point of the season. But which team would you project to win the division if they added Lester, Peavy, AND Uehara.
I can't make the argument that "if I was a xxx team fan or GM I would do this", I am just trying to make the argument that it is not an irrational idea. You have to pick your spots. Do you take the chance in a one game playoff against King Felix this year, or do you hope your prospects come up and offset the other challenges the team face, like losing favorable contracts of Encarnacion, Bautista, Cruz, Hardy, Wieters (injuried). Having unfavorable contracts start to burden like Pujolz, Hamilton, Wilson, Dickey, Jones, Ubaldo, Reyes. And team's like Texas, Boston, New York, and Tampa getting out of their funks.
Baseball in my eyes, with all the advanced metrics and all teams playing money ball, is becoming more about timing and luck. Red Sox have a deep farm system, no terrible contracts, and one of the highest payrolls in the game and we are one of the worst teams in the league. Why would Baltimore or Toronoto not want to play in a win now mode. Billy Beane is doing this now. He see's his opportunity and he is not going to half measure-moneyball his chance away.
I am just trying to say we shouldn't rule out the possibility of packaging some guys together. This remains more true to me with players like Lester and Uehara. Because of team control you are not going to get Pederson, Sanchez, Bundy for one of these guys alone, but you can give them something to think about when you offer them a good chance to win their division or complete their team for a playoff run.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 14, 2014 10:58:01 GMT -5
Jerry Crasnick ?@jcrasnick The #royals, in the market for a RH bat, have Jonny Gomes on their list of potential trade targets. #redsox
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jdb
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Post by jdb on Jul 14, 2014 23:35:08 GMT -5
I'd make a run at Jesus Mntero. He's been hitting better in AAA, probably could use a change of scenery and still under 25.
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