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Red Sox 2012 Offseason
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Post by beasleyrockah on Dec 9, 2012 16:41:17 GMT -5
Yeah, citing Duquette as proof of the importance of "elite talent" is odd. He had Pedro Martinez in his prime, along with a superstar in Nomar, and still couldn't win. The organization consistently had terrible depth. If anything, his tenure is proof that a few elite players can't offset a poor middle class. This isn't basketball.
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Post by buffs4444 on Dec 9, 2012 17:03:14 GMT -5
Duke wasn't perfect, but he had his success with a number of bigger acquisitions: Pedro, Manny, Damon, Varitek, Lowe, etc. And Theo definitely improved on a number of things when he came aboard. But where Theo inherited a team with two HOF'ers (Pedro/Manny) plus other all-star level players (Nomar, Damon, Lowe) and surrounded them with complementary talent, BC-LL has only continued the addition of complementary talent without reloading the elite talent. At some point, someone running this team needs to be adept at adding impact talent via the other two routes (trade/free agency), like Duke was, because that was a huge part of the successful run this team had.
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Post by jmei on Dec 9, 2012 17:10:21 GMT -5
"Elite talent" is the new "Lester is not an ace."
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 9, 2012 17:22:46 GMT -5
You don't have to be adept at adding the top talent though, you just need money. Dan Duquette didn't sign Manny Ramirez because he had some special skill. Manny Ramirez was the best corner outfielder on the market, and the Red Sox had more money than any other team looking for a corner outfielder. Duquette didn't get him because he was smarter than Billy Beane, he got him because he paid Ramirez more than the Oakland A's entire team.
2001 Manny Ramirez isn't a free agent right now. When the Red Sox signed him, he was a 28-year old with a three year line of .324/.423/.649. That player isn't available right now. You can't just wish more "elite talent" onto the Red Sox. Other teams have gotten smarter about holding onto "elite talent" while letting mid-range talent go free. That's why Josh Hamilton and Zack Greinke are available, and Joey Votto and Cole Hamels are signed until like 2035. Only flawed players are reaching free agency now.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Dec 9, 2012 18:17:29 GMT -5
Buffs, by that definition a "big acquisition" is any acquisition that nets a core player, regardless of cost. Credit the Red Sox for obtaining Lowe and Varitek, but the acquisition cost of the immortal Slocumb wasn't that big of a deal...it certainly isn't comparable to handing Manny $160m. By this logic, Theo did a lot more than "surround with complementary talent". Signing guys like Ortiz and Arroyo off the scrap heap would also qualify as "big acquisitions". This would also prove there are more ways to add elite talent than big ticket FA, so I'm not sure the point of this exercise. The acquisitions of Pedro, Manny, Damon, Lowe & Varitek were all completely different in terms of risk and acquisition cost, it doesn't tell us anything about Duquette's ability to hit on big ticket FA's. He really only signed one (Manny)...if Damon counts, well, so does Jose Offerman.
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Post by buffs4444 on Dec 9, 2012 18:41:24 GMT -5
You don't have to be adept at adding the top talent though, you just need money. Dan Duquette didn't sign Manny Ramirez because he had some special skill. Manny Ramirez was the best corner outfielder on the market, and the Red Sox had more money than any other team looking for a corner outfielder. Duquette didn't get him because he was smarter than Billy Beane, he got him because he paid Ramirez more than the Oakland A's entire team. 2001 Manny Ramirez isn't a free agent right now. When the Red Sox signed him, he was a 28-year old with a three year line of .324/.423/.649. That player isn't available right now. You can't just wish more "elite talent" onto the Red Sox. Other teams have gotten smarter about holding onto "elite talent" while letting mid-range talent go free. That's why Josh Hamilton and Zack Greinke are available, and Joey Votto and Cole Hamels are signed until like 2035. Only flawed players are reaching free agency now. Except, Dunner, that this team has the money and hasn't seemed to be interested in either of the top talents available. Manny had his warts, Damon had his, heck people even had questions about how long Pedro would be able to continue with his small frame. Sure the landscape is changing, more teams are locking up their players, and the ones that are available are costing more due to that scarcity. That doesn't mean you abort interest in the market and cry "poveretto", it means you invest more in making the talent involved successful in Boston. There is no reason why Greinke and/or Hamilton couldn't be successful in Boston, people are fooling themselves by thinking that. As for 2001 Manny, he finished 13th in OPS that year (after finishing 2nd in OPS the year prior), so there were questions there as well. Same with Pedro who saw his FIP rank 21st, 2nd, and 17th from 96-98. Nobody "knew" that either was going to end up as HOF'ers at that point. They were acquired, they were coddled, and they flourished. Greinke will do that for the next 6 years in LA and most likely Hamilton does that in Texas for the next 4 years. People can talk about the team doing the best they can with the current free agent/trade markets. To that....."losers talk about doing their best, winners go home and f___ the prom queen". And really, jmei, elite talent isn't anything other than what it's always been: required. When this team becomes more than a wallflower about acquiring more of it, it will stop being as much of a topic of discussion.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Dec 9, 2012 19:48:31 GMT -5
Yes, I think the addition of elite, game-changing talent would improve the team. Wonder why more people haven't thought of this?
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Post by jmei on Dec 9, 2012 19:53:37 GMT -5
I have seen no evidence that the FO has cried "poveretto" and doesn't intend to spend on players going forward; indeed, the signing of above-market deals to role players like Ross and Gomes rather than relying on cheap internal solutions strongly points to a continued desire by the ownership to spend up to the luxury tax limit. If Henry lost all his money and needs to scrimp on the Red Sox payroll, he sure as hell wouldn't be spending $39m on Shane Victorino, that's for sure.
This comes down to: the front office doesn't think Greinke and Hamilton are elite players, but you do. Your preferred strategy of signing the best available free agents is the exact sort of thinking that led to the Crawford and Lackey contracts. Like I said early, this isn't about the "philosophy" of the front office or any of that garbage. This is about Ben Cherington understanding that Hamilton's going to fall apart once his bat speed slips due to age/injury and that Greinke continues to be unable to pitch up to his peripherals and then choosing not to pay market rates for risky players. We can continue to debate the merits of individual players if you like, but this "the FO is cheap" narrative is a myth and you know it.
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Post by bluechip on Dec 9, 2012 20:51:18 GMT -5
Theo and Co understood much better how to build an entire roster, and that's why they were at a championship level so quickly after Duke got fired. Useful back end players like Millar, Walker, Bellhorn, Kapler, etc were brought in, and they struck gold with Mueller and Ortiz, who were also totally undervalued. Meh, they still won 93 games with Dequettes team in 2002, with a Pythagorean W-L record of 100-62. All of those (lucky) additions were equal to 2 wins with a worse run differential? Dequette built some good baseball teams, which were the foundation of the first world series team. Theo got lucky that everyone he added far exceeded expectations.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Dec 9, 2012 20:54:44 GMT -5
I am thankful Theo got "lucky" or else the Cubs would feel a lot better about themselves with a "rival" near them as far as not winning a WS in a gazillion years.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 9, 2012 21:08:15 GMT -5
Mueller and Ortiz were really the only players Theo added on the '04 team that exceeded expectations, and Mueller had already been an excellent player, just injury-prone. Also, Jeremy Giambi totally flopped, and Byung-hyun Kim didn't "far exceed expectations," though he was actually fairly solid in '03 in the regular season. Millar, Bellhorn, Walker, Kapler, Timlin, Foulke and that Curt Schilling fellow all played just about exactly how they would've been expected to.
People never talk about how the core of the Super Bowl Patriots defense was in place before Belichick got there. And they shouldn't, because he took the solid foundation and built it into a championship team. When it started getting popular to bash Theo around here, the narrative turned into "those were Duquette's teams that won anyway!" It's silly revisionism. Duquette took one of the top three payrolls in the game, bought expensive free agents, and ended up with a team that was generally quite good. Looking at baseball from 1998-2001, record generally followed payroll pretty closely, until the Billy Beane A's (and to an extent the Twins) showed that you don't have to build a team the same dumb way as everyone else. Theo took the very good team that Duquette (and Port) left him, mixed in some of that Oakland influenced smarts, added necessary parts that made them elite, and won two championships.
EDIT: Buffs, you're deliberately being selective now. The years you're talking about for Pedro (1998) and Manny (2001) were their first WITH the Red Sox. After they were acquired.
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Post by bluechip on Dec 9, 2012 22:19:27 GMT -5
Mueller and Ortiz were really the only players Theo added on the '04 team that exceeded expectations, and Mueller had already been an excellent player, just injury-prone. Also, Jeremy Giambi totally flopped, and Byung-hyun Kim didn't "far exceed expectations," though he was actually fairly solid in '03 in the regular season. Millar, Bellhorn, Walker, Kapler, Timlin, Foulke and that Curt Schilling fellow all played just about exactly how they would've been expected to. Look at the 2003 Red Sox: Millar really was not that great of a player, nor was walker. Yes, they had great offensive seasons, but they were also terrible defensively (which is part of the reason the Red Sox allowed nearly 150 runs more in 2003 than they did in 2002). Kapler was a bit player, so I really could careless about his addition. Timlin was a middle reliever. Foulke and Schilling were both high priced additions, which were acquired the same way DD built his teams (money). The fact remains that five of the best players on the 2003 Red Sox (Ramirez, Varitek, Nixon, Damon, and Garciaparra) were signed by Dan Duquette. Oritz and Mueller, the best signings by Theo, far exceeded anything they had previously done in the majors. The best pitchers on the 2003 team (Pedro, Lowe, Wakefield, Burkett) were all DD moves. Again, Theo did make some moves that worked out (mostly Oritz and Mueller), but he does not deserve all of the credit. In fact, when Duke left, he did not leave the team in salary hell. DD left a team that with a few tweaks was able to win a world series. The same cannot said of Theo.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 9, 2012 22:43:21 GMT -5
Look at the 2003 Red Sox: Millar really was not that great of a player, nor was walker. Yes, they had great offensive seasons, but they were also terrible defensively (which is part of the reason the Red Sox allowed nearly 150 runs more in 2003 than they did in 2002). The biggest reasons that the Red Sox allowed so many more runs in 2003 than 2002 was because Derek Lowe and Tim Wakefield didn't repeat what was, for both, arguably the best year of their careers. Part of that was because of the mediocre defense behind them, but a bigger part of that was because they both overachieved in 2002. Millar and Walker weren't great, that was my point. They were good, and they were upgrades over Tony Clark/Brian Daubach and Rey Ordonez/Jose Offerman. The entire point of my argument was that the star players were already in place, and that they needed good players to fill out the rest of the roster. Theo did a much better job filling out the rest of his roster than Duquette did, which is why the Red Sox won two World Series with him as General Manager. Kapler was a very solid fourth outfielder, who played acceptably well when called upon during Trot's injuries, particularly in 2004. Timlin was EXCELLENT from 2003 to 2005. Seriously the dude was fantastic. You can't just write off the fact he was "a middle reliever." He was one of the best setup relievers in the game for three years. 142 ERA+, K/BB ratio near 4, saved the bullpen in '05 when Foulke broke down. I thought the whole argument was that this ownership group and management team doesn't appreciate the value of elite talent. Except when it acquires elite talent, I suppose? That's the other point I (and jmei, more eloquently than I) have been trying to make, circling back to the original theme. It's not that the Red Sox don't care about acquiring elite talent. They do. They just didn't consider Zack Greinke to be an elite talent. You can debate that if you'd like, but the Red Sox not wanting him doesn't mean they don't care about acquiring elite talent. It means they didn't care about acquiring Zack Greinke.
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Post by grandsalami on Dec 9, 2012 22:53:36 GMT -5
nvm
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 10, 2012 0:18:40 GMT -5
Yes, I do believe the Sox were in on this, and I'm trying to remember where I read this, I think it was Gammons, but I remember reading that the Sox turned down a Lester deal for Myers. And if that is indeed the case, I find that extremely troubling. And if that's the case, then the Sox had first crack at it and let a golden opportunity pass. The Red Sox SET the market for a mediocrity like Victorino, so please spare me the market price argument. KC is a crappy team who spent their best prospect for a good pitcher who'll soon be gone. Does that mean the Sox should follow their approach and deal Bogaerts for a good rent-a-pitcher? Just because another team makes a bad decision, whether it's trading talent, or grossly overpaying a mediocre player (which was something that was being quoted as being said by other GMs at the Winter Meetings and for good reason) thru free agency, doesn't mean the Sox need to do the same thing. For the record, I don't think Ben is Larry's puppet, but he certainly got overruled in the Bobby Valentine fiasco last year - that wasn't Ben's hire - and I don't know that he'll fight Larry the way Theo tried to when he didn't believe in something. Regardless, I do believe the baseball moves are Ben's and not necessarily Larry's, so I don't think that Cherington is his puppet. No. what was the contract the former roid user in SF got? what about the other contracts signed? what about the ATL contract?.... If the Braves are crazy enough to pay Upton that kind of money, that's their problem, and I'm sure somebody will ridiculously overpay for Michael Bourne, and the Dodgers will make everybody overpay for an true ace (somebody who's awesome FIP mirrors their awesome ERA down the road - I'm sure the Mariners appreciate this (sarcasm). Do you really think the Sox will get $39 million of value out of Victorino or anything close? I can see them getting a good amount of value out of Napoli, and Uehara is a good pitcher, but that kind of money for a corner OF who doesn't hit like a corner OF? Now market aside, do you really think these are great signings - I mean is Upton a good deal for Atlanta? Do you think Victorino is a good deal for the Sox?
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Post by sdiaz1 on Dec 10, 2012 0:24:39 GMT -5
"Now market aside, do you really think these are great signings - I mean is Upton a good deal for Atlanta? Do you think Victorino is a good deal for the Sox? "
How can you possibly answer wheter or not the price for any commodity is a good value without considering the market from which the commodity exists?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 10, 2012 0:28:43 GMT -5
"Now market aside, do you really think these are great signings - I mean is Upton a good deal for Atlanta? Do you think Victorino is a good deal for the Sox? " How can you possibly answer wheter or not the price for any commodity is a good value without considering the market from which the commodity exists? You can compare it to the previous market, notice that the going rate for a corner OF with a mediocre OPS and declining numbers, has increased and ask yourself whether you want to shop in that market.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 10, 2012 1:00:50 GMT -5
Locking this thread after yet another duplicative conversation. I'll move the Myers posts into the non-Sox thread.
If you wanted to post something in here, it's got a home somewhere, whether in an existing thread or in a new one!
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