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Red Sox 2012 Offseason
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Sept 28, 2012 18:41:16 GMT -5
Its going to be an interesting offseason for the Red Sox as they have so many holes to fill. It will be interesting to see what kind of offers they will get for Ellsbury as he is likely going to test the free agent market after the 2013 season. I would approach the Nationals who still have a lot of talent in the system, have a need for a center fielder and appear to have a good working relationship with Boras.
Jason A. Churchill @prospectinsider
Couple of front office peeps have matter-of-factly mentioned Jacoby Ellsbury as one of the more likely names to be moved this winter.
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,826
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Post by steveofbradenton on Sept 29, 2012 7:45:32 GMT -5
Months ago I was all for moving Ellsbury and receiving something in return. Not now.
His value to us is much greater than to anyone else currently. Moving him now would be done at a much lower value. Now if he was OK with signing an extension as part of a trade, his value to that team would be much greater. But, with Boras as his agent, you know and I know that will never happen unless they are blown away with a Jason Werth kind of contract.
Unless Ells gets injured again, his motivation will be sky high to have a monster year in 2013. If he does have a great year, we should be able to have a good chance of competing for the play-offs, and we will see what Ells is REALLY capable of. Was 2011 a fluke? Does he have anything close to that kind of year again in him?
I've come to the conclusion with the new CBA and the rosters of some of the biggest spenders, that we have as good a chance to sign him to a deal as anyone. We NOW have the resources with the Punto trade. We actually have a good chance of resigning him whether he reverts to pre-2011 or not.
Keeping him only makes good sense!
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nomar
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Posts: 10,833
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Post by nomar on Sept 29, 2012 13:14:28 GMT -5
I agree that Ellsbury isnt at his highest value, but I can almost guarantee theres a team that would give a lot for him. A contender could expect a huge year for him next year at least, because it is a contract year for him.
We just cant trade him if we would get better value from compensation picks we would get from losing him via free agency.
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Post by grandsalami on Sept 29, 2012 17:19:03 GMT -5
Gordon Edes @gordonedes Red Sox are about to hire Eddie Bane, the man who drafted Mike Trout, as a top talent evaluator. At least one more hire expected.
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Post by stevedillard on Sept 29, 2012 17:28:47 GMT -5
Bane has held several positions since retiring as a player, including special assistant to the GM for the Tampa Bay Devil Rays (1999–2003), and scouting director for the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (2004–2010).
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Post by sarasoxer on Sept 29, 2012 17:37:55 GMT -5
Certainly Ells has a lower value now. Barring repeat injury(ies), he will probably have something of a bounce-back year. Thus, his value across the board with a trade partner will likely be better next season. The cost of retaining him will also escalate and the demand will be for a long term committment. I don't think ownership is going to use the so-called "Punto trade" and its new-found cache of gold dubloons on Ells (or anyone else for that matter if it is true to its word). My bet is that he will be traded to a contender mid-late next season for some close-to-the-majors high ability prospects.
I know that everyone wants (and some demand) that management field a contender every year when they put their hard-earned ticket dollar down. But, I do not think that the Sox will play like the Yankees where the slogan goes "We don't rebuild, we re-load". I want us to contend every year too, but sometimes discretion rather than bold valor is the best choice. To me, this is management's view.
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Post by bentossaurus on Sept 29, 2012 18:07:39 GMT -5
I doubt the value will be higher next season even if he rebounds somewhat. Not only will there be less time on his contract but draft pick compensation will also automatically be off the board.
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Post by dmaineah on Sept 29, 2012 20:16:31 GMT -5
I think that what the Red Sox do or don't do with Jacoby Ellsbury is the biggest decision they have to make this off season. I think it's bigger then; Who's going to Manage the team or How can the Pitching Staff be improved or Who is going to play 1B, LF, RF, SS or Can a Salty/Lavarnway duo handle the Catching duties or Should Papi be re signed or anything else that you can think of. I think Jacoby Ellsbury should be signed. I think it should be attempted this off season. Given his situation I doubt it will get done. I also think it should be attempted during spring training and all season long and right up to the very last possible minute before he signs with another team. I don't think he should be traded this off season or at the trade deadline or at any time during next season. I'd hate to loose him and I would be fine with a draft pick compensation if he chose another team and passed up a fair market value contract offer from the Sox. I really think the Sox should lock him up.
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Post by sibbysisti on Sept 29, 2012 20:26:57 GMT -5
There is no doubt that the team will try to lock up JE during the off-season. But supposing he and his agent, Boras, are asking for J. Werth numbers. Do you give it to a soon to be 30 yr. old player with, to this date, one outstanding year?
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Post by dmaineah on Sept 29, 2012 20:50:01 GMT -5
Like I posted; I think he should be offered a fair market value contract now. If he chooses to roll the dice on his performance this coming year, so be it. The offer could go up or it could go down, and the offer should be adjusted accordingly and be made. I think every effort should be made to keep him.:
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Post by remember04 on Sept 29, 2012 20:51:12 GMT -5
There is no doubt that the team will try to lock up JE during the off-season. But supposing he and his agent, Boras, are asking for J. Werth numbers. Do you give it to a soon to be 30 yr. old player with, to this date, one outstanding year? Based on his skill set and the fact that he's had one, count them ONE great year? No. Also look at his skill set. He's a speedy centerfielder who is "fragile". Going forward his speed is only going to go down and that's his main asset. His D was at one point in question considering the fact that yeah he's fast but he was at one point getting horrible breaks on balls and making up for them with his speed. Some of those fantastic catches should've been more routine than they were. I'm obviously a farm system guy otherwise I wouldn't be here and he's the type of guy that under normal conditions you buy out of his arb years to lock up to a deal that suits you but between Boras being his agant and his injury history that was never going to happen. The talent is definitely there I agree with most of you on that but will it be there by the end of whatever contract he gets and the most talented baseball player on earth isn't worth anything if he's injured. The most talented baseball player on earth under the new CBA also isn't worth any amount of money no matter what and Ellsbury isn't the greatest baseball player on earth although Boras will play him up like he is. I admit that I think next year will be a transition year for the years beyond. Keeping that in mind we have Bradley who admittedly doesn't have the pure talent as Ellsbury but factor in the price difference between the two and he's absolutely an upgrade going forward. Somebody is going to pay him well over what he's worth and I hope to god its not us. Even with his value being low(er) right now I still think you trade him in the off season if you can get better value than the one comp pick you'd get if he walks because I either think he does walk or we pay him so much that we wind up regretting it.
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Post by Legion of Bloom on Sept 29, 2012 21:00:03 GMT -5
Trade Ellsbury, Bradley will be a fine replacement.
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Post by dmaineah on Sept 29, 2012 21:11:40 GMT -5
The point I'm trying to make is that I believe that what ever direction the team ends up taking with Ellsbury will have the biggest affect on the team going forward. Bigger then any other decision they will make between the end of this year and the start of the 2014 season. I really believe that.
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Post by vmoss on Sept 29, 2012 21:40:00 GMT -5
Bane has held several positions since retiring as a player, including special assistant to the GM for the Tampa Bay Devil Rays (1999–2003), and scouting director for the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (2004–2010). How were those drafts? The Sox hired Gary Hughes eariler this year. What is his current role? Thanks.
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Post by dcri on Sept 29, 2012 22:36:21 GMT -5
I am skeptical about Ellsbury. His injury history is very problematical. He seems unusually fragile. There is no reason to believe that he ever will have a season again like he had in 2011. I'm not saying he won't, just that the odds are greatly against it. He briefly was a great player. He isn't that player now.
I would not invest heavily in him. He is not likely to be a difference-maker for the Sox. I think it would be better to trade him in a deal for a top pitcher.
The free agent class sucks and I think the Sox should pass on all of them, unless they can get a favorable deal. I'd like to see a couple of trades to strengthen the starting pitching longer term, with the intent of promoting some of the top minor league players as rapidly as possible.
I don't think there is any combination of FA signings and trades that will turn the Sox into a serious contender in 2013. It is going to take longer. Better to do it intelligently and patiently.
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Post by mantush on Sept 29, 2012 23:22:24 GMT -5
Here's a list of players drafted by the Angels under Bane's leadership that have made it to the show: Jered Weaver Mark Trumbo Martin Maldonado Bobby Cassevah Nick Adenhart Freddy Sandoval Buster Posey Peter Bourjos Brian Matusz Chris Davis Jeremy Moore Robert Mosebach Brian Schlitter Trevor Bell Anthony Vasquez Sean O'Sullivan Jordan Walden Hank Conger David Herndon Chris Pettit Barret Browning Matt Harvey Mason Tobin Efren Navarro Andrew Romine Tyler Chatwood Michael Kohn Will Smith Mike Trout Patrick Corbin Josh Spence David Carpenter Garrett Richards
Not everybody listed signed with the Angels, but there's a few impressive names in there. I'm happy he's on our side now.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Sept 30, 2012 7:07:31 GMT -5
I am skeptical about Ellsbury. His injury history is very problematical. He seems unusually fragile. There is no reason to believe that he ever will have a season again like he had in 2011. I'm not saying he won't, just that the odds are greatly against it. He briefly was a great player. He isn't that player now. I would not invest heavily in him. He is not likely to be a difference-maker for the Sox. I think it would be better to trade him in a deal for a top pitcher. The free agent class sucks and I think the Sox should pass on all of them, unless they can get a favorable deal. I'd like to see a couple of trades to strengthen the starting pitching longer term, with the intent of promoting some of the top minor league players as rapidly as possible. I don't think there is any combination of FA signings and trades that will turn the Sox into a serious contender in 2013. It is going to take longer. Better to do it intelligently and patiently. I personally think that JE could have a year or years comparable to what he had in 2011, at least in normalized form. But maybe not with us. It wasn't just the speed, it was the speed combined with the sudden power. Put him in the new Yankee Stadium with the right climatic conditions and what would he do? Quite possibly be a rich man's Granderson. Your point about the FA class is well-taken, and rather ironic. In the year the team disintegrates and gets into protected pick area there isn't any FA worth jumping at for the chance to lose a 2nd round rather than a 1st round pick.
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Post by bentossaurus on Sept 30, 2012 8:13:53 GMT -5
The point I'm trying to make is that I believe that what ever direction the team ends up taking with Ellsbury will have the biggest affect on the team going forward. Bigger then any other decision they will make between the end of this year and the start of the 2014 season. I really believe that. I agree with this. How the Ellsbury issue is dealt is the litmus test about the strategy for the next few years by the FO.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Sept 30, 2012 8:56:45 GMT -5
I don't think there is any combination of FA signings and trades that will turn the Sox into a serious contender in 2013. It is going to take longer. Better to do it intelligently and patiently.It's not just better, it's essential. You can construct scenarios where the Red Sox compete next year: if Lester comes back, if Ellsbury comes back, if Buchholz ever truly arrives, etc. The thing is, every team can do that for 2013. The Royals, the Pirates, whoever. That's just how baseball is. Really questionable teams can have a great year if enough things break right. But, and I can't stress this enough, planning for the best case scenario is how you ruin a franchise. That's how the Astros bottomed out, that's how the Pirates have perpetuated two decades of sub .500 ball, the Royals have done this, the Orioles... and for everyone who just went "But the Orioles are teh awesomes!", are they really the model you want for the Red Sox? Ten years of miserable irrelevance broken only by a historic streak of luck? Any team can contend when everything breaks right. The real goal should be what the Rangers have done: build an organization that contends year after year even when things don't break right. The Red Sox used to be that team, and getting back to that point should be their only real priority. Contending in 2013 would be nice. But if there's a MarkTeixeira deal out there for Ellsbury or (yes even) Pedroia out there this winter, they really need to take it.
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Post by dcb26 on Sept 30, 2012 10:01:59 GMT -5
But if there's a MarkTeixeira deal out there for Ellsbury or (yes even) Pedroia out there this winter, they really need to take it. This I agree with. In absence of any other factors, sure, you might as well make the team better for next year than for a couple years down the road, but the focus has to be on some kind of long-term plan (remember when we used to hear about the Sox' long term plan back in 04-07?) Specific to Ellsbury, it's easy to say that the Sox should keep him for now and move him at the deadline if it doesn't look like he'll re-sign, but really here's the possible scenarios if the Sox keep Ellsbury this winter: Ellsbury re-signs in Boston - seems highly unlikely, but sure Ellsbury has a good year, the Sox have a good year - You can't trade the best player on a contender at the deadline, so the best the Sox could hope to get back is a draft pick (and I think Ellsbury has a lot more value in a trade than the equivalent of a compensation pick) Ellsbury has a bad year, the Sox have a good year - Sure, trade him, but what are the Sox going to get back? Ellsbury has a good year, the Sox have a bad year - Trade him, but is the reduced return for Ellsbury being moved at the deadline vs. in the offseason worth his contributions to a team that isn't going anywhere? Ellsbury has a terrible year, Sox have a terrible year - shit sandwich Everyone and everything is average - Do the Sox move him or not? If they do they won't get too much of a return, but is the team good enough to hope it, and Ellsbury, both catch fire in the 2nd half? (This is, I imagine, the most likely scenario if the Sox keep Ellsbury this winter.) For me, if there's a good deal out there for him this winter, I take it, unless I/the Sox truly expect Ellsbury to return to 2011 form and truly expect him to sign in Boston
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Post by kindasweaty on Sept 30, 2012 11:13:33 GMT -5
But if there's a MarkTeixeira deal out there for Ellsbury or (yes even) Pedroia out there this winter, they really need to take it. I don't think that's an issue, nor is there anyone here who would be upset with a Mark Teixeira type deal if it presented itself. The problem is, which team is going to be foolish enough to give up that kind of talent for a year of Jacoby Ellsbury?
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Post by jmei on Sept 30, 2012 11:25:11 GMT -5
I think we're overestimating Ellsbury's trade value this offseason. I doubt trading him returns a franchise-altering haul (read: a top 30 prospect or multiple top 100 prospects). Yes, it only takes one team which covets him, and I agree that if a team calls and is willing to offer blue-chip prospects you absolutely take the call, but I just don't think that's out there. Ellsbury is a pending free agent who doesn't seem amenable to an extension, has been injured for significant stretches, is coming off a bad year, and has had only one year of brilliance. Not sure that's worth much on the trade market.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Sept 30, 2012 15:12:50 GMT -5
I don't think you're going to get a Mark Teixeira type return for Ellsbury. I'm just saying that the Red Sox might get someone to overpay for him, and if they have the chance they should really capitalize on it.
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Post by jmei on Sept 30, 2012 15:25:35 GMT -5
What constitutes an "overpay"? I mean, I'd trade him straight-up for Andrus, but that's probably not going to happen. Do you do the deal if the top prospect you get in return doesn't crack the SP.com Top 5? Top 10?
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Post by mantush on Sept 30, 2012 16:08:53 GMT -5
The real question here is whether or not the return for Ellsbury is going to be greater than or equal to what we would likely receive for him if we let him walk. Given that the team that trades for him would be eligible for a compensation pick at the end of the year if they trade for him during the off-season, I don't think his value is going to be higher in the next year.
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