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Red Sox 2012 Offseason
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Post by mantush on Oct 10, 2012 14:19:50 GMT -5
I'd rather lose for a number of the years and stock talent for the next post season run than try and compete year in and year out while having a crippling lack of cost-controlled, cheap impact talent.
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,826
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Post by steveofbradenton on Oct 10, 2012 14:43:48 GMT -5
I'd rather lose for a number of the years and stock talent for the next post season run than try and compete year in and year out while having a crippling lack of cost-controlled, cheap impact talent. Hope I made my opinion clear. No long term contracts (3 or more) and the ability to still contend and NOT give up our prospects. If you don't want to even consider contending next year, fine......so DON'T spend any money other than re-upping Ross and Papi. This free agency crop is NOT inspiring. NO long-term contracts. Go just 2 years as reinforcements are on the way.
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Post by jmei on Oct 10, 2012 15:53:18 GMT -5
I guess my problem is guys like Napoli, Victorino and Ross are fine if they are your 6-8 hitters, not 4-6. At least not in Boston. I can appreciate the fact they they don't cost much to acquire, but there has to be a better 4 hitter out there. I know we are talking cheap options for a "bridge" year, but I want more out of the lineup than that. Maybe I need to better manage my expectations. The 2011 Red Sox scored the most runs in the major leagues that season. Let's see how Napoli, Victorino, and Ross compare to that lineup, shall we? #4 hitters, 2011 Red Sox: .277/.374/.487/.861 Mike Napoli, 2010-12: .261/.355/.520/.875 #5 hitters, 2011 Red Sox: .298/.381/.504/.885 Cody Ross, 2010-12: .260/.324/.434/.758 #6 hitters, 2011 Red Sox: .245/.301/.394/.695 Shane Victorino, 2010-12: .264/.334/.432/.766 So Cody Ross probably doesn't compare very well to 2011 David Ortiz, but Napoli and Victorino are as good, if not better than their counterparts from 2011. Napoli in particular seems to be a very underrated hitter-- not only does he have that ideal Fenway swing, but he's just one season separated from an elite 1.044 OPS season.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 10, 2012 18:09:10 GMT -5
I think we have to first agree on what it means to contend, before we write off our theoretical chances for next season. If you feel that be contend we must have a team that on paper is the best in the league , with a bonafide ace, then you are right in believing that can not be done. However if you lower those expectations to say a contender is a team whose true talent level is that of an 87 win team, who with some luck sneaks into the playoffs then you are incorrect in your assertion that we can not compete. If we resign Ross and Ortiz, sign one of Peavey / Kuroda / Jackson, and aquire via trade or free agencey a legitimate but not great first basemen (Matt Carpenter / Justin Morneau / Ike davis / Kendrys Morales / Mike Napoli / Andy Laroche) and a simmilarly decent corner outfielder, we would be in an excellent position to "contend". I will admit that those are a lot of ifs and that the front office should not make any serious sacrifices for tomorrow in order to be more competitive in 2013, but with our payroll flexibility and minor league depth (prospects like Brentz, Britton, Cecchini, KLDC, and so forth) we should be able to make those type of moves and aquire the pieces to be a good but not great team. I don't think anybody is saying it's impossible for the Sox to compete. You can make a case for just about anybody to compete with the probable exception of the Astros. Sure the Sox could sign/overpay one of the aforementioned pitchers and it would help (but with a guy like Peavy for example you wonder how long it is before he's on the DL, and how many years do you have to sign him for), and they'll improve 1b and an OF corner, and I assume they'll re-sign Ortiz and Ross, but that doesn't solve the other issues/questions the Sox have like who is Jon Lester at this point? Will Andrew Bailey struggle as much with the Sox in 2013 as he did in his brief stint last season? Who is Melancon at this point? What will the Sox get out of SS? Is Ross only a Fenway hitter or is there more that justifies a 3 year deal? Can Ortiz keep on being amazing? Which way are they going behind the plate? And how bad will the injuries be in 2013? At first you'd think it was awful luck the amount of injuries they had, but it's been three seasons running, and it hasn't gotten better. I suspect there will be some surprising and excellent answers to these questions next year (for example I'm still hopeful that Lavarnway forces his way into the job next year) as I don't think that everything will go as wrong as it did last year, but that doesn't necessarily turn them into an 87 win team, which is what I thought the 2012 Sox were when the season began. I suspect the Sox will need to stop using the hacktastic lineups they've been using and will need to eventually start employing some patient hitters in the lineup to make the opposing pitchers' jobs harder. The rotation still lacks top notch quality when compared to the contenders as was the case when the Sox had Beckett/Lester/Buchholz at the beginning of the season. And it won't be a free agent starter who'll make the rotation top notch - it'll be if/when the kids start breaking thru - hopefully starting with De La Rosa. The bottom line is yes, the Sox can contend next year, but the odds of the Sox being a serious contender next season are pretty low, but if the Sox do things the right way, those odds will rise in the future and stay high like we were accustomed to last decade.
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Post by benfromma on Oct 11, 2012 8:14:42 GMT -5
I am not against signing Big Papi, but why do have to set the market price for his signing. We should make a qualifying offer of one year@ 12.5 and then tell him go out and find a better offer. If someone does, (doubtful) we find younger, cheaper and healthier solutions. Maybe we lose his power but maybe we use his money to find a starter, a younger power hitter and a player not always crying about his contract.
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Post by jmei on Oct 11, 2012 8:33:00 GMT -5
The problem is that the Red Sox have a lot of money to spend and not a lot of elite players to spend it on. I'd rather spend on a short-term, two-year deal for Ortiz than shell out $20m+ per year to Hamilton or Greinke. Not only does that make signing Ortiz a good move budget-wise, but if you don't give him a two year deal but he ends up re-signing, he's going to be grousing about it all year, which will be a tough for a new manager to deal with.
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Post by jdb on Oct 11, 2012 9:07:05 GMT -5
We need to add some type of vesting option on games played. When he's healthy he's shown to be worth the money but an Achilles injury to a guy who will be 37 by spring worries me.
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Post by iakovos11 on Oct 11, 2012 10:39:08 GMT -5
The team also needs leaders and Ortiz is that. He is well respected by his teammates. He and Pedey are really the player leaders here and that leadership will be necessary. They have both been taking Iglesias under their wing to to try to get him ready to be the starting SS next year - especially at the plate.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Oct 11, 2012 13:14:26 GMT -5
"The rotation still lacks top notch quality when compared to the contenders as was the case when the Sox had Beckett/Lester/Buchholz at the beginning of the season. And it won't be a free agent starter who'll make the rotation top notch - it'll be if/when the kids start breaking thru - hopefully starting with De La Rosa."
I keep on seeing this statement being made, which while true does not disqualify a team from being able to win ballgames. It is wonderful to have a Verlander, Kershaw or Sabbathia type, but winning baseball games is not impossible to do so without a true ace.
Each of Kuroda, Peavy, and Jackson are solid number 2 starters on a playoff contender and are if healthy pretty good bets to be worth 3-4 wins. Yes Peavy has an extensive injury history and Kuroda is ancient, but there peripherals give little reason to fear a degradation of talent.
Peavy's K/9, K%, K/BB, and WHIP were all better than any year he has had since 2009 (though he is becoming more of a fly ball pitcher which is a cause for some concern in the AL East).
Similarly, while Kuroda's k rate did see a small fractional decrease (6.87/9 from 7.17/9), which could likely be the result of facing a DH as opposed to an automatic out non of his other stats really changed from their three year averages.
And lastly, I think we all forget that while Jon Lester has had a pretty awful 18 months, he is still only 28 years old and was in many peoples' opinion one of the top three left handed pitchers in the league as recently as 2 years ago.
Unfortunately, unlike Peavy and Kuroda, Lester's stuff is no longer what it used to be. His peripherals have been steadily declining for three seasons and he will likely never be the guy he once was or the guy we had hoped him to become. But with that said, we can not let our disappointment at the loss of what could have been mar reality. In 2012 Jon Lester had a FIP of 4.11 and an X FIP of 3.82 good for a 3.3 WAR. There is still a good pitcher there, even if he is no longer an ace.
So my point is that a rotation of three number two starters (Peavy, Lester, Buchholz (I think he is the guy we saw in the second half, and his first few starts skew his 2012 stat line so much that they are not really worth using in order to project going forward.). Followed by a combination of Doubront (He is league average at the moment, but could certainly become better), Lackey (who knows what to expect- maybe we will get some good luck for a change), De La Rosa (you should be excited to watch this guy pitch), and Franklin Morales (I really hope we give him a chance to start). While not inspiring is in reality a pretty good rotation and one that will allow a team with a good offense to win 90 plus games if things break right.
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Post by remember04 on Oct 11, 2012 15:53:28 GMT -5
I am not against signing Big Papi, but why do have to set the market price for his signing. We should make a qualifying offer of one year@ 12.5 and then tell him go out and find a better offer. If someone does, (doubtful) we find younger, cheaper and healthier solutions. Maybe we lose his power but maybe we use his money to find a starter, a younger power hitter and a player not always crying about his contract. So I'll quote this as I agree with it and it leads to less arguing. What ever happened to parting ways with players BEFORE they start the inevitable downfall? Have we learned nothing from the painful endings of Mike Lowell, J.D. Drew, Josh Beckett, Jason Varitek and others? Make him a qualifying offer and if he accepts he accepts if he doesn't he doesn't. Personally I hope he doesn't
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 11, 2012 16:58:13 GMT -5
"The rotation still lacks top notch quality when compared to the contenders as was the case when the Sox had Beckett/Lester/Buchholz at the beginning of the season. And it won't be a free agent starter who'll make the rotation top notch - it'll be if/when the kids start breaking thru - hopefully starting with De La Rosa." I keep on seeing this statement being made, which while true does not disqualify a team from being able to win ballgames. It is wonderful to have a Verlander, Kershaw or Sabbathia type, but winning baseball games is not impossible to do so without a true ace. While not inspiring is in reality a pretty good rotation and one that will allow a team with a good offense to win 90 plus games if things break right. You see the possibility of 90 wins? Geez, I guess you could come up with a scenario with most teams to get to 90. The Sox would have to have a heck of an off-season and actually stay reasonably healthy and actually play some inspired clutch baseball, which they haven't done since August 2011. Lester and Buchholz are decent, salvageable pitchers, most likely better than their 4.91 and 4.56 ERAs. Doubront has a chance to be decent. Lackey is somebody I really wouldn't count on. I don't know that Morales can hold up to the rigors of starting and De La Rosa will need time to get his feet on the ground and probably take some lumps. He hasn't pitched that much recently. I don't see 90 wins there, especially if the Sox lineup continues to have a trend toward hacking as it did last year. I was seen as a pessimist for not having the Sox down for 92 wins last season and only having them for 87. I'm not going to leap to an expectation of 85 - 90 wins. I'll start with 75 and see what improvements the Sox can make relative to the rest of the league. One other point I'll make. The Sox won 2 Championships (which is the ultimate bottom line) last decade and they had legit aces on their teams those years. If the Sox had any depth whatsoever behind Pedro during his heyday, they could have given the Yanks a run for their money in 99-00, and if the Sox had any bullpen at all, they would have cashed in on Roger Clemens' 86 season. Having an ace pitcher at the top of his game plays big-time during the post-season (see Chris Carpenter or what the DBacks did to the Yanks in 01, etc.). I guess the only thing we agree on is our excitement at seeing what De La Rosa can do.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Oct 11, 2012 17:48:34 GMT -5
"You see the possibility of 90 wins? Geez, I guess you could come up with a scenario with most teams to get to 90. The Sox would have to have a heck of an off-season...."
I see it as entirely possible for the Red Sox to construct a team that has a true talent level of 87 wins. If the front office is aggressive and tries to build such a team, then winning 90 games would not be out of the question. If I am Ben this is the team I would try to put out next season (My apoligies if this should be in another thread).
If Boston could trade for Ike Davis and Shin Soo Choo to fill out our lineup while replacing Salty with a Lavarnway/Butler tandem and sign one of the afformentioned pitchers I feel like we could compete.
Lineup: Ellsburry Shin Soo Choo / Melkey Cabrera Pedroia Ortiz Middlebrooks Davis Ross Lavarnway Iglesias
Rotation: Jon Lester Peavy / Sanchez / Jackson /Kuroda Clay Buchholz Felix Doubront John Lackey
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Post by jdb on Oct 12, 2012 7:44:05 GMT -5
I moved this over from the pitching thread since he is still under contract. www.freep.com/article/20121007/SP....-Brennan-BoeschRick Porcello stayed on the roster, although he's not scheduled to start any of the five potential games against the A's. He will be used in long relief. It easily could be argued that Drew Smyly is a more important piece of the 2013 starting puzzle than Porcello. It's not that he's just a left-hander on a staff overflowing with righties, but he's more of a strikeout threat than Porcello. This also could be Porcello's farewell, specifically because he's a ground-ball pitcher on a team of limited infield defensive range
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Oct 12, 2012 19:23:54 GMT -5
de la Torre signed, avoiding loss of him via free agency. Still need to sign Wright and Olmsted.
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Post by grandsalami on Oct 12, 2012 19:45:02 GMT -5
BV in Germany.. hmmmmmm
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Post by sibbysisti on Oct 12, 2012 20:12:58 GMT -5
How come only the Yankee's face is not shrouded?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 12, 2012 20:22:40 GMT -5
I think we have to first agree on what it means to contend, before we write off our theoretical chances for next season. If you feel that be contend we must have a team that on paper is the best in the league , with a bonafide ace, then you are right in believing that can not be done. However if you lower those expectations to say a contender is a team whose true talent level is that of an 87 win team, who with some luck sneaks into the playoffs then you are incorrect in your assertion that we can not compete Watching the playoffs it becomes very obvious that having a true ace is big when it comes to advancing in the playoffs - particularly in the division series and now with the sudden death wild card game. Verlander and Sabathia are true difference makers and worth the money. My feeling is you might be able to contend with a bunch of second tier pitchers, but you probably won't go too far in the playoffs and to me a serious contender is a team that's a real threat to win the Series, not just win 87 games and hope to make a cameo appearance in the post season.
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Post by remember04 on Oct 13, 2012 1:09:27 GMT -5
I think we have to first agree on what it means to contend, before we write off our theoretical chances for next season. If you feel that be contend we must have a team that on paper is the best in the league , with a bonafide ace, then you are right in believing that can not be done. However if you lower those expectations to say a contender is a team whose true talent level is that of an 87 win team, who with some luck sneaks into the playoffs then you are incorrect in your assertion that we can not compete Watching the playoffs it becomes very obvious that having a true ace is big when it comes to advancing in the playoffs - particularly in the division series and now with the sudden death wild card game. Verlander and Sabathia are true difference makers and worth the money. My feeling is you might be able to contend with a bunch of second tier pitchers, but you probably won't go too far in the playoffs and to me a serious contender is a team that's a real threat to win the Series, not just win 87 games and hope to make a cameo appearance in the post season. But...but..but, just get in and you never know what could happenRemember people, italics means sarcasm. Also I don't think anybody ever questioned whether they were worth the money. It was more could it be done without those types. Obviously they're worth the money. I just agree with you that making the playoffs just to say you made the playoffs doesn't mean anything. Its about winning championships. You have to be able to win on paper, you can't just go out there and hope for the best.
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Post by benfromma on Oct 13, 2012 8:51:56 GMT -5
My question to Ortiz if we let you try to find a better offer than ours and you don't, and you come back for 1 yr(highest offer) will you then really become a leader and not cry about your contract. I feel until we lose that type of attitude in the club house the culture will not change. We need more players like Ross who signed for cheap dollars but loved to play.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Oct 13, 2012 9:05:38 GMT -5
Remember people when you are factually incorrect, simply stick with tiresome narratives and change the goal posts of the conversation.
If you do not see a difference between competing for a spot in the playoffs with regularity over the next several seasons as we hopefully develop some elite talent from finishing below five hundred for the foreseeable future then I do not know what to say. Making the playoffs is a success, and acting like its World Series or bust just stinks of the mindset of an average Yankees fan.
But I'll play your game anyways and just leave you with this:
2011 World Series Winner St Louis Cardinals 90 Wins Best Pitcher: Kyle Lohse ERA+ 109
201 World Series Winner San Francisco Giants 92 Wins Best Pitcher: (3 way tie of sorts) Maddison Bumgarner ERA+ 131, Matt Cain ERA+ 124, Johnathan Sanchez!!! ERA+ 127 all good seasons but no true ace.
2007 World Series Runner UP: Colorado Rockies 90 Wins Best Pitcher: Aaron Cook ERA+ 117
2006 World Series Winner St. Louis Cardinals 83 Wins Best Pitcher: Mark Moulder ERA+ 144 (he was awesome) Second best pitcher: Jeff Suppan ERA+108 3rd best Starter: Jason Marquis ERA+74
2002 World Series Runner Up San Francisco Giants – 95 Wins Best Pitcher: Kirk Reuter ERA+ 120
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 13, 2012 10:26:46 GMT -5
I'm sorry, but you can't put forth the Yankees and Tigers as examples of how important having an ace is and then ignore the Giants and Cardinals, who advanced despite their starting pitching doing, on the whole, pretty poorly that round. (Lohse was ok, but I'm sure nobody would call him an ace, and Wainwright, Cain, and Bumgarner all have playoff ERAs over 5 right now)
There's more than one way to build a team.
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Post by rangoon82 on Oct 13, 2012 10:39:18 GMT -5
My question to Ortiz if we let you try to find a better offer than ours and you don't, and you come back for 1 yr(highest offer) will you then really become a leader and not cry about your contract. I feel until we lose that type of attitude in the club house the culture will not change. We need more players like Ross who signed for cheap dollars but loved to play. Can the Sox give Ortiz one year guaranteed at good money and a second year that kicks in based on incentives? That seems win/win
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Post by jmei on Oct 13, 2012 10:57:52 GMT -5
The "we need an ace" narrative is a non-starter because such a player is not available this offseason through free agency, trade, or internally (it is fair to say that Felix is not available and Greinke is not an ace). The real question is what the team should do given the inability to acquire an ace.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 13, 2012 11:55:11 GMT -5
The "we need an ace" narrative is a non-starter because such a player is not available this offseason through free agency, trade, or internally (it is fair to say that Felix is not available and Greinke is not an ace). The real question is what the team should do given the inability to acquire an ace.Start thinking about being sellers this winter. If the Red Sox are going to win 85 games next year, they might as well win 72 and have an awesome farm system. And, if they trade any even remotely important prospects this offseason with an eye towards competing in 2013, then just forget it. Resign yourself to a 5-to-10 year stretch of utter mediocrity of that happens.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 13, 2012 18:18:00 GMT -5
Remember people when you are factually incorrect, simply stick with tiresome narratives and change the goal posts of the conversation. If you do not see a difference between competing for a spot in the playoffs with regularity over the next several seasons as we hopefully develop some elite talent from finishing below five hundred for the foreseeable future then I do not know what to say. Making the playoffs is a success, and acting like its World Series or bust just stinks of the mindset of an average Yankees fan. I've been a fan long enough (over 30 years) to see the difference between hoping to catch lightening in a bottle vs being hopeless for a few years vs having a team with a legit shot at the Championship. Let's get this clear. The average mindset of the Yankees is that any year they don't win is a disaster. They expect to win every year. As a Red Sox fan I don't expect that. Given where the Sox are, I'm quite alright if they take the necessary time to rebuild properly rather than rebuilding a team on the fly, get tempted to do something stupid on 7/31 to appease the masses, and lessen their chances for greatness in the years ahead. As a Red Sox fan, I don't expect them to win every year, but I do expect them, for the payroll they can carry, to be able to build a Championship caliber roster versus one that has to get very lucky to win a Championship, something a Red Sox team hasn't done - the ones that won or almost won (barely missed) were excellent teams, the best in the league. I don't find much excitement in seeing my team will be squashed in the playoffs like the 1988 Sox or 1990 Sox or 1995 Sox were. There's a higher goal here. Let the Pirates or Royals be happy just to be there. I don't think Yankee fans can stand rebuilding even though they did many years ago and are still reaping the benefits. I can if they're doing it the right way. Does it mean you can't tinker with the team for short-term gain? No. The Sox could sign a Torii Hunter type for a couple of years, make a deal or sign for a competent 1b, sign an Edwin Jackson. It won't make them a Championship caliber team. 87 win teams can win Championships like the Cards did in 06, etc, but there's a lot more that don't win. My biggest concern when it comes to these bandaid solutions is that if/when these kids come up and mature and need a helping hand to put them over the top and a King Felix or a rare pitcher of that ilk is available, I want to see the Sox have the ability to get that pitcher via free agency, and not be blocked because they have too many Edwin Jackson clogging up the payroll. You can develop the Edwin Jackson's of the world, but the King Felixes are much more rare and tougher to get.
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