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Red Sox 2012 Offseason
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Post by kindasweaty on Oct 6, 2012 12:33:33 GMT -5
It might need some, but Texas has Profhar, meaning Andrus has to be cleared. Next, they may lose Hamilton, or at least move him out of center. So they are a decent fit. Lastly, Andrus is good, but bear in mind, that offensively, he has a career OPS below .700, maxing last year at .727. His career OPS+ is 85. Now, he is 24 years old, and an all-star, but its not as if we are getting a two-dimensional player. If Texas believes they are getting closer to the AL MVP Ellsbury, plus they know Boras, it could be tempting. Just because Profar is knocking at the door doesn't mean they'll give away Andrus for less than he's worth. I agree with JDB, who says that if the Rangers were to trade Andrus with an eye on replacing Hamilton, isn't Justin Upton a better fit? Not only is he younger and under control for longer but he's historically better. I understand that Andrus' OPS+ hasn't been great but he was worth 3.5 wins last year, 4 the year before, both (mostly) before his 24th birthday. I would love to see him on the Sox, but it'd cost more than 29 year old, about-to-hit-free-agency, missed-most-of-the-last-three-years Jacoby Ellsbury.
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Post by buffs4444 on Oct 6, 2012 13:14:01 GMT -5
That 'chance to match' probably increases the likelihood that he'll stay in Texas, or at least keeps them from making a move to fill his spot until he signs somewhere else. Upton is a perfect fit and should be a priority this offseason for a number of teams, but more importantly for Boston if they feel he can be a middle of the order hitter for the team long term. Middle of the order bat and starting pitching are priorities this offseason, but probably easier to supplement SP in free agency, especially after the Boston/Greinke press conference.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 6, 2012 13:37:39 GMT -5
That 'chance to match' probably increases the likelihood that he'll stay in Texas, or at least keeps them from making a move to fill his spot until he signs somewhere else. If you're paying more for Josh Hamilton than the Texas Rangers think he's worth, you're probably making a bad decision.
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Post by remember04 on Oct 6, 2012 17:00:39 GMT -5
And if you trade for an Andrus, it frees up Iglesias to incluse in a trade for another position of need. Value wise I think Iglesias is best kept here until he makes the bigs and can prove whether or not he can hit. I think the overall doubts about how much he'll hit limit his value to the point where he's most valuable to us no matter what he turns into. Trade him when you have a replacement.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 6, 2012 17:28:33 GMT -5
The Sox would have to give Texas more than Ellsbury to receive Andrus.
At this point, although they've done little to prove elsewise, the Sox need to give a full chance to Iglesias and Lavarnway. The expectations should be different next year than going into this year.
The Sox have been embarrassed, but to be honest, they need to ride this out. I don't think expecting them to go from 69 wins to 85 wins would be wise. It could happen, but at what price?
The next really good Sox team is going to be a young and up and coming team. It's rotation will most likely be headed by De La Rosa, Barnes, Owens, and Webster and hopefully another young pitcher with good upside that maybe the Sox can obtain in a deal for Ellsbury.
Fans might not like it, but if the Sox do things the right way and build for the future, then the Sox might only win 75 games next year, but if they do it the right way, with the indicators clearly pointing to better times ahead as the farm system blossoms, then the Sox will be fine in the years ahead.
As a historic parallel, in 1990 the Yankees crashed and became a 67-95 team. They didn't become an overnight sensation. They followed it up with 71-91 in 1991. The point is it takes time to build a sustaining championship caliber team the right way. I guess it could work on the fly with brilliant maneuvers and money - as that's how the Sox became good last decade, but there's no evidence the Sox are the smartest team in the room anymore, so pilfering as many quality, impact players as they did in the offseason of 2002-2003 is unlikely.
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Post by sibbysisti on Oct 6, 2012 19:31:31 GMT -5
And if you trade for an Andrus, it frees up Iglesias to incluse in a trade for another position of need. Value wise I think Iglesias is best kept here until he makes the bigs and can prove whether or not he can hit. I think the overall doubts about how much he'll hit limit his value to the point where he's most valuable to us no matter what he turns into. Trade him when you have a replacement. That is the point of my comment. With Andrus, you have a replacement. Now it may take more than Ellsbury to entice the Rs to part with Andrus, but Iglesias is a good bargaining chip in another trade. I mean. not to the Rs, since they already have their SS phenom. Jose may have not met expectations offensively (as if there were any), but he is young (22) with a big upside. A team like Arizona might want to build an infield around our defensive wizard.
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Post by jdb on Oct 8, 2012 20:27:26 GMT -5
I'd like Hamilton on a short deal but regardless it's going to be interesting to see where he ends up. I think he gets 5 years from someone. Here's a Fangraphs link from today. www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/josh-hamilton-most-confusing-free-agent-ever/I could see Hamilton getting 5/125 from a team that decides to just ignore the risk and land the best offensive player on the market this winter. I could see Hamilton remaining a free agent until January before signing a one year deal somewhere to try and prove that his second half wasn’t a sign of things to come. Like with Hamilton on the field, his free agent outcomes cover the entire spectrum of possibilities. Perhaps that’s only fitting for a guy who and can end a 43-home-run season being booed by his home crowd.
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,826
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Post by steveofbradenton on Oct 9, 2012 7:10:20 GMT -5
Mentioned it a couple of times: Hamilton for 3 years at outrageous money is OK, but his age and history would scare me. I would guess if Cherington wants to definitely compete in 2013 and not be patient that he may pursue him. But to throw caution to the wind and start the madness all over again, count me out.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Oct 9, 2012 12:20:52 GMT -5
The Sox would have to give Texas more than Ellsbury to receive Andrus. At this point, although they've done little to prove elsewise, the Sox need to give a full chance to Iglesias and Lavarnway. The expectations should be different next year than going into this year. The Sox have been embarrassed, but to be honest, they need to ride this out. I don't think expecting them to go from 69 wins to 85 wins would be wise. It could happen, but at what price? The next really good Sox team is going to be a young and up and coming team. It's rotation will most likely be headed by De La Rosa, Barnes, Owens, and Webster and hopefully another young pitcher with good upside that maybe the Sox can obtain in a deal for Ellsbury. Fans might not like it, but if the Sox do things the right way and build for the future, then the Sox might only win 75 games next year, but if they do it the right way, with the indicators clearly pointing to better times ahead as the farm system blossoms, then the Sox will be fine in the years ahead. As a historic parallel, in 1990 the Yankees crashed and became a 67-95 team. They didn't become an overnight sensation. They followed it up with 71-91 in 1991. The point is it takes time to build a sustaining championship caliber team the right way. I guess it could work on the fly with brilliant maneuvers and money - as that's how the Sox became good last decade, but there's no evidence the Sox are the smartest team in the room anymore, so pilfering as many quality, impact players as they did in the offseason of 2002-2003 is unlikely. This is right along my line of thinking. But I also feel posters are greatly undervaluing what's already on-board. The focus seems to be on some open-ended perception of a galaxy of holes to fill. How about a cold-eyed look at what's needed? That also makes it easier to keep from filling holes you don't have, moving players around as if it's some sort of video game - it's not, it's a team-building exercise. Why project players such as Andrus when you already have two shortstops on board, a very good utility player in Ciriaco, and when you're top prospect has reached AA and he's still playing that position as well? Much of what passes for conjecture on the board turns me off when this sort of wish-casting sets in. Let's start by assuming that Ross and Ortiz are brought back. Is everybody convinced that Middlebrooks' 2.1 WAR, even with the wrist injury and the games missed, is worth more than Youkilis' 1.2 WAR and that the margin will only increase going forward? If so then the core of Middlebrooks, Pedroia, Ortiz, Roth and Ellsbury - for however long he's around - more on that below - does give you something you can work with. By all means stick Iglesias at SS and leave him there. With that core of hitters his glove carries his bat easily. Ditto with Lavarnaway. He will hit. You can see the wheels cranking as he figures out who's throwing what. He's in the process of learning the pitchers he's facing, that's who he is and how he does it. He'll bring his average up and start to show pop as well. I don't have any doubts about that at all, the media be damned. I'm not a fan of Saltalamacchia, not because he can't hit (though he does have some real holes in his swing he still hasn't closed) but because of his catching and game-calling. I'd sell high and bring up Dan Butler to spell Lavarnaway and to provide very good catching chops when the former is otherwise occupied as DH. I'm all for bringing Napoli on a reasonable two or three-year contract. He'd kill at Fenway I believe. A first-baseman, part-time catcher, and spare DH with significant pop is one less hole you have to fill and one more set of all-around skills you have available. That lineup looks robust at this point, though heavily right-handed. That suggests a left-handed bat for the outfield, though it doesn't absolutely have to be that way. I don't believe the team should invest in Hamilton. There are just too many question marks for that big a commitment. Kalish may get a shot, even given his weak showing to date. This is still a relatively young player. but his injury history is not good. This is where Cherrington makes his bones, I believe. Can he get a credible player - left or right handed - without giving away the farm? If so, this looks like a competitive lineup. Can they win the division? Very unlikely. Can they compete for a playoff spot? A possibility. Can they make it over .500? Very good bet. That low a target won't sit well with many of the talking-heads but, as Champs points out, it's time to brush aside just about all that chatter. Hire a PR firm, or a team of professional clowns for all I care, to deflect, defuse, and disarm those pop-guns. What have you given up? With good planning and a clear-eyed look at what you can afford to lose, not much that you really need for that future team that you're building. As for Ellsbury, there are three four possibilities - three relevant - for the upcoming year. Lets take them one at a time. - He does well and the team tanks: Sell high.
- The team tanks and he tanks: Bring Bradley up. Apart from the fine-tuning Chris has pointed out, he's ready right now. Don't doubt that either.
- He does well and the team does well. This will be the most difficult choice of all. Bring Bradley up later in the year to get the fans acquainted with his skills, make Ellsbury a generous offer, but be prepared to cut-bait and take the heat. The team will have been winning and you'll have your best opportunity to stand the withering fire from those insisting he be given a very expensive long-term contract.
It goes without saying that if he tanks along with the team, he's gone given the demands he'll probably be making. Get on with the JBJ era. So, I fall somewhere in the middle. I've already given a few thoughts on the pitching in other posts.I think they can build a team that will be a bit of fun to watch, even with all those worry-warts and sour-pusses punching keyboards and manning the mics. Edit: Spelling.
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Post by elguapo on Oct 9, 2012 13:11:44 GMT -5
Norm, who cares what the fans think about Ellsbury? In the end fans want a winning team with players they can root for. We could resign him to a 6x20 and fans would turn on him for being overpaid. Doesn't matter.
I see Middlebrooks as a .750 OPS guy with a good glove - solid.
Assuming Papi is back, we are still missing 1/3 of the lineup. It all hinges on who we get to play LF-RF-1B - Ross is a strong candidate but it seems like they will explore a number of options.
And finally they need a credible plan to acquire frontline starting pitching while keeping the current & potential frontline starters they have. I'm not sure "wait until the Phillies decide Cliff Lee costs too much" is credible. Sign Greinke, maybe. Trade Ells for pitching prospects, maybe. Pray Steven Wright turns into R.A. Dickey? Hire the Maddux brothers and hope they work magic?
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Post by grandsalami on Oct 9, 2012 13:21:50 GMT -5
RT @mikesofine: ESPN’s Buster Olney says Bobby Valentine who has been quiet since his dismissal Thursday, may have been paid for his silence
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Post by jmei on Oct 9, 2012 13:24:28 GMT -5
I don't think it should be taken as a given that Ross should be re-signed. He has that Fenway swing, but he's also 32 next year and just set a career-high strikeout rate (24.4%). If they can get him to settle for a two-year deal at manageable dollars, he's probably a good sign in a FA class of corner outfielders lacking elite talent and depth, but he shouldn't be a slam dunk.
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Post by sibbysisti on Oct 9, 2012 15:09:02 GMT -5
RT @mikesofine: ESPN’s Buster Olney says Bobby Valentine who has been quiet since his dismissal Thursday, may have been paid for his silence Isn't he still an employee of the Sox organization? I doubt they gave him a 2.4m lump sum. His pay for 2013 would stretch out until this time next year. If that's the case, and he's still being paid, he shouldn't be criticizing his employer at this point. You'll have to wait for his book to be released next year.
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Post by benfromma on Oct 9, 2012 18:17:41 GMT -5
Is anyone else concerned that Big Papi is still having problems with his heal ? He wants a two year deal, but maybe even a 1 year is to much for an unhealthy DH
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Post by bighead on Oct 9, 2012 18:42:27 GMT -5
With all due respect to the posters who think the Sox can (not will) contend next season and every season simply because of revenues...your wrong. Even the Yankees cannot do that and not to get off subject but we are about to see this first hand in the next handful of seasons. All the money in the world won't make signing a front rotation starter possible because there isn't one available through FA. Or probably through trade for that matter. The Sox won in '04 and '07 because of pitching. The Sox lost in '11 and '12 because of pitching. The team ERA has been steadily eroding since '07. Having capital to invest in an illiquid market does no good.
You list a bunch of FAs that could help a team but for the most part other than Hamilton and Grenkie are role players. Despite the lack luster FA group the top of this crop or anybody who could make a significant contribution will require a multi-year contract. So signing a bunch of mid teir players to make the Sox contend next season will mean that these guys will be around draining salary when better options internal and external are available. That is even before you consider it is highly unlikely that the current holdovers plus what you can sign from that crop would not likely contend unless the stars aligned. Whoever said that this is how you wreck a franchise is dead on.
The "Punto" trade was a good trade but it also meant that the Sox were going to be a lot further from contention in the next 3 or so seasons but had a better chance at building to contend consistently down the road. Believing the Sox can contend every year because they have cash and want to is talk radio logic that is designed to get ratings and page views. It has no real validity in the real world. Economies can't expand continuously, there has to be a recession. Ups and downs. The more you try to extend a big period of expansion the more likely you'll create a depression.
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Post by remember04 on Oct 9, 2012 19:06:07 GMT -5
Is anyone else concerned that Big Papi is still having problems with his heal ? He wants a two year deal, but maybe even a 1 year is to much for an unhealthy DH I hate to say it but make him a qualifying offer and hope he turns it down. He's still productive but for how long and he's a part of our past not our future. We are NOT contending next year either way. We had three statistical aces in 2004 and 2007 was pretty much guaranteed wins for Beckett the whole postseason not to mention we had one of the best 3-4 combinations ever. We don't have a single ace next year. We're hoping for a number 2 type guy from Lester and Buchholz and hoping for a number 3 type from Lackey and Doubront. Our 3-4 is a fading Ortiz who you can't pencil in for anything offensively given his age and injury history. I think we'd have to hope EVERYTHING breaks our way just to make the playoffs.
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Post by sarasoxer on Oct 9, 2012 19:26:54 GMT -5
Have to cast my vote with 0407 and bighead. Looking at quotes from Sox brass doesn't require much parsing. I think that it is pretty clear that they are on a longer term path with hoped for better and more sustainable results down the road. Will they have the necessary patience and be able to calm SoxNation in the meantime? They can't come out and say..."It will be a few years until we contend"...and who really knows anyway. Lightening might strike but right now the atmospheric conditions don't seem favorable.
I think that the only guys safe from the trade market (an avenue to juice the recovery process) are Pedey, Middlebrooks and Papi .....a lifer with great attitude-who could be viewed as a kind of surrogate parent for young additions.
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Post by sibbysisti on Oct 9, 2012 20:35:40 GMT -5
Is anyone else concerned that Big Papi is still having problems with his heal ? He wants a two year deal, but maybe even a 1 year is to much for an unhealthy DH When is his heel supposed to heal?
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Post by sdiaz1 on Oct 9, 2012 21:14:21 GMT -5
I think we have to first agree on what it means to contend, before we write off our theoretical chances for next season.
If you feel that be contend we must have a team that on paper is the best in the league , with a bonafide ace, then you are right in believing that can not be done.
However if you lower those expectations to say a contender is a team whose true talent level is that of an 87 win team, who with some luck sneaks into the playoffs then you are incorrect in your assertion that we can not compete.
If we resign Ross and Ortiz, sign one of Peavey / Kuroda / Jackson, and aquire via trade or free agencey a legitimate but not great first basemen (Matt Carpenter / Justin Morneau / Ike davis / Kendrys Morales / Mike Napoli / Andy Laroche) and a simmilarly decent corner outfielder, we would be in an excellent position to "contend".
I will admit that those are a lot of ifs and that the front office should not make any serious sacrifices for tomorrow in order to be more competitive in 2013, but with our payroll flexibility and minor league depth (prospects like Brentz, Britton, Cecchini, KLDC, and so forth) we should be able to make those type of moves and aquire the pieces to be a good but not great team.
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Post by The Town Sports Cards on Oct 10, 2012 6:07:34 GMT -5
I completely agree with sdiaz, having a team that can "contend" isn't actually too difficult. Look at the roster for this year's Orioles. Yes they got VERY lucky on 1 run and extra inning games, but who is thier ace? And their lineup consists of 4 guys on 2nd or last chances (Davis, Thome, Reynolds, McClouth), 3 actual stars (Hardy, Weiters, Jones), a rule 5 pick (Flaherty) and a top rated rookie (Machado). That doesn't exactly scream "contender".
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Post by sibbysisti on Oct 10, 2012 8:05:01 GMT -5
I'd put Markakis up there with Hardy, Weiters and Jones.in the all star department.
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Post by The Town Sports Cards on Oct 10, 2012 8:50:11 GMT -5
That's right, missed him since he's been out for the past month, but still, that's 4 all stars, 4 roll players, 2 "rookies". You take the Sox lineup of Ellsbury, Ortiz, Pedroia there's 3 All Stars. Ross, and Salty are 2 role players, and Middlebrooks and Iglesias as your "rookies". The Sox sign two role players/all stars like Napoli or Laroche for 1st and pick up an everyday LF/RF, they easily have a contending lineup. The rotation would just need to be mediocre, which granted would be a HUGE step up from this year, but a staff ERA of around 4.00(which would have been 17th in the league this year) instead of 4.70 and the Sox are in the thick of the playoff race.
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Post by sarasoxer on Oct 10, 2012 11:07:51 GMT -5
Realistically we have 4 above average players in Ells (when healthy), Papi, Pedey and maybe Middlebrooks. Ells, if not traded, will be better. Papi will be a year older at 38 but gone in 2 years. Ross, to me, is average in RF and not a fly-chaser. I don't count Salty because of his low average, low OBP, low % of base stealers caught and apparently higher team ERA when catching. If Ross does not return, there is another hole to go along with gaping ones at LF & 1B. Aviles is ok except for an abysmal OBP...Even so, If Iglesias replaces him, team offensive stats will be impacted.
Looking at 2012 pitching stats, the Sox finished near the bottom in almost every category. For those looking for a Baltimore comparison:
Quality starts Sox 28th, Baltimore 21st Shutouts Sox 31st (last) Baltimore 15th ERA Sox 27th Baltimore 14th Saves Sox 27th Baltimore 2nd BA against Sox 25th Balt. 15th Walks Sox 23rd Balt 13th Strikeouts Sox 22nd Balt. 17th
Injuries (but all teams have them), bad attitudes, disruptive manager, and some under-performances give expectation of some rebound. I think that 81-81 is feasible next year. A 'wild card' is the direction management takes. If we start trading some established guys (Lester, Buch, Bailey, Ells) for prospects, that will be the handwriting.
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,826
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Post by steveofbradenton on Oct 10, 2012 13:29:11 GMT -5
That's right, missed him since he's been out for the past month, but still, that's 4 all stars, 4 roll players, 2 "rookies". You take the Sox lineup of Ellsbury, Ortiz, Pedroia there's 3 All Stars. Ross, and Salty are 2 role players, and Middlebrooks and Iglesias as your "rookies". The Sox sign two role players/all stars like Napoli or Laroche for 1st and pick up an everyday LF/RF, they easily have a contending lineup. The rotation would just need to be mediocre, which granted would be a HUGE step up from this year, but a staff ERA of around 4.00(which would have been 17th in the league this year) instead of 4.70 and the Sox are in the thick of the playoff race. Here is a line-up we could definitely put on the field and give us some flexibility on the field. It's a line-up that would allow us to "contend" and not give up prospects: Ellsbury CF (20+ homers) Pedroia 2nd base (15+ homers) Ortiz DH (30+) Napoli 1st base (30+) Ross LF (20+) Victorino RF (10+) Middlebrooks 3rd Base (25+) Lavarnway C (15+) Iglesias SS (1+) If you add up the low number, you get 166 taters not counting the bench. This line-up will play well defensively and give us decent power. I'd add someone like Lohse or McCarthy in the rotation, and I would think we could compete for the wild card with this team. Contract wise, with this being hugely important, would be offering Ross, Napoli, and Victorino 2 year contracts with an option. I would also offer Ortiz a 2 year with no option.
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sarcasmo
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Formerly known as mtomeo
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Post by sarcasmo on Oct 10, 2012 14:19:26 GMT -5
If you add up the low number, you get 166 taters not counting the bench. This line-up will play well defensively and give us decent power. That's a lot of solo HRs and strikeouts. Who besides Ortiz & Pedey is actually going to get on base in that lineup? Not to mention the HR numbers for Napoli and Ells are pretty high, though Napoli does kill the ball in Fenway. I guess my problem is guys like Napoli, Victorino and Ross are fine if they are your 6-8 hitters, not 4-6. At least not in Boston. I can appreciate the fact they they don't cost much to acquire, but there has to be a better 4 hitter out there. I know we are talking cheap options for a "bridge" year, but I want more out of the lineup than that. Maybe I need to better manage my expectations.
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