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Buy, Sell, or Wait? (aka the Fire Sale Game Thread)
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Post by jrffam05 on Jun 26, 2014 12:39:16 GMT -5
There has to at least be some element of competition with players. I'm sure some care less than others, but it isn't that hard for me to imagine that some players would appreciate going to play for a contender, instead of losing every night.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 26, 2014 12:55:55 GMT -5
Rick Aguilera resigned with the Twins in a similar situation when they traded him to the Sox in mid-1995. A team in the Red Sox position trading a guy but then making an effort to sign him later isn't really that rare. Uehara might command more in free agency than I'd be thrilled with paying, though. My memory could be off on this, but perhaps besides liking Minnesota, Aguilera was intrigued with the possibility of being a starting pitcher which the Twins were offering in 1996. He had been the closer for awhile in Minnesota and hadn't been a starter since his Mets days. Truth of the matter is you can count the number of guys getting dealt away around July 31st and returning the next season to the team that dealt them on one hand and have fingers left over. It's very rare. If Uehara, Lester, or Lackey get dealt in 2014, they're not coming back in 2015. It's wishful thinking. Perhaps you do get back a top 50 prospect, but you have to weigh that against possibly having the best closer in the game for another year or two which are years you would expect to have a realistic shot to contend.
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Post by jrffam05 on Jun 26, 2014 13:20:33 GMT -5
For me the thing about trading Lester or Lackey is right now our farm system is set up to replace that with cheap cost controlled players. DLR is by no means going to come up and replace what Lester would provide, but I would much rather have RDL, Pederson, and 22M dollar invested somewhere else on the team than Lester alone.
I will call myself out as saying the same thing about JBJ and Ellsbury. I said JBJ could come in and give us 75% of Ellsbury's production and it would benefit the team. JBJ has roughly half the Fwar as Ellsbury this season, albeit most of that is based on the Fringey defense metrics fangraphs uses.
I don't think anyone is arguing that it would be easy to resign Lester, as much as they are saying it is a possibly we should be open to. It will be a solid FA class of starting pitchers this year.
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Post by ctfisher on Jun 26, 2014 14:03:21 GMT -5
To the people who have voted "Too early to make a judgment" - What kind of apocalyptic sign are you waiting for? We currently trail SEVEN teams for the second wild card spot. Well some of those teams look like they're probably not going to sustain that performance- the Yankees, for one, have a worse run differential than us, a bunch of guys with no track record over performing, and a very old roster. The Twins are pretty suspect, especially given we just saw them score something like 3 runs total in a 3 game set at Fenway, I don't think they're a better team than the sox. And most teams have had better injury luck than us as well. I think the Angels and Mariners are way better than us right now, but that could change with some improved performances- Bogaerts getting out of his slump, Pierzynski and Bradley hitting a little better, Middlebrooks coming back to play 3b against lefties instead of drew being there, etc. The rotation minus Peavy/Doubront and with a healthier looking Buch and one of RDLR and Workman should be improved too. So it's not a huge stretch to think that, with an injury or 2, or a slump by a key hitter on LAA or Seattle, we could be right back in it. Baltimore and KC don't scare me too much, the Royals have a number of line up holes and a worse staff than us, and I feel pretty sure that the O's don't have the pitching, plus Machado and Davis have regressed. None of those teams, to my knowledge, can expect to improve simply by getting potentially major pieces healthy or promoting people (maybe Baltimore with Bundy, or the M's with their pitching prospects, but they might be hurt?). The Sox should be a better offensive team with Middlebrooks back in the lineup over Drew some of the time, and if Victorino ever gets healthy, he should also be a difference maker. And Mookie Betts is the wildcard. So yea, it's a month to the deadline, and we're not quite at the midpoint of the season, I'm pretty sure we can afford to wait 2-3 weeks and see if this team starts performing better, because if they pick it up soon, we're not out of it. Way stranger things have happened
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 26, 2014 16:27:58 GMT -5
The problem, as alluded to in the article Amfox linked to, is that there isn't even going to be much to buy. Which makes it another check box in the sell column.
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Post by klostrophobic on Jun 27, 2014 0:37:29 GMT -5
Everyone keeps referencing the number of teams above them, but I don't see how that is more relevant than the number of games they are behind the second wildcard. The Red Sox still need to make up the same number of games regardless if its one team or 10 in front of them. 7, 8 or whatever games it is now is a lot, but larger deficits have been overcome with much less time. Like, remember 2011? This article explains why the number of teams matters. Not only do the Red Sox have to play really well going forward, they also have to hope that no team in the race manages to come close to matching their winning streak. They have to play seven games better than seven other teams, which is pretty difficult. I'm not buying it. They have to play seven games better than the team who currently holds the second wild card. And if they do this, they are likely to have leapfrogged the other teams in front of them regardless if it is one or fifteen. The effect of having to play better than x teams is there I'm sure but its badly oversold. Either way, it's still too early to actually do anything of import with the roster. Nothing is gained by selling now.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jun 27, 2014 8:01:19 GMT -5
For me the thing about trading Lester or Lackey is right now our farm system is set up to replace that with cheap cost controlled players. DLR is by no means going to come up and replace what Lester would provide, but I would much rather have RDL, Pederson, and 22M dollar invested somewhere else on the team than Lester alone. I will call myself out as saying the same thing about JBJ and Ellsbury. I said JBJ could come in and give us 75% of Ellsbury's production and it would benefit the team. JBJ has roughly half the Fwar as Ellsbury this season, albeit most of that is based on the Fringey defense metrics fangraphs uses. I don't think anyone is arguing that it would be easy to resign Lester, as much as they are saying it is a possibly we should be open to. It will be a solid FA class of starting pitchers this year. It's not clear to me where you're going to find a better place than Jon Lester to spend $22m.
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 27, 2014 8:17:10 GMT -5
This article explains why the number of teams matters. Not only do the Red Sox have to play really well going forward, they also have to hope that no team in the race manages to come close to matching their winning streak. They have to play seven games better than seven other teams, which is pretty difficult. I'm not buying it. They have to play seven games better than the team who currently holds the second wild card. If one team is ahead of you, you can catch them both by playing well and by that team falling off. If they were only chasing the Orioles, they could just play seven games better than the Orioles. They could do this by going something like 48-35 the rest of the way (.571 - unlikely, but not at all impossible), while the Orioles go 42-43. But to catch all of the teams in front of them, they'd also need the Mariners to go 41-42, the Royals to go 43-42, and the Yankees to go 43-41. The chances of any one of these teams posting a sub-.515 winning percentage is pretty good, but the chances of all four doing so is quite slim. In order to play well enough to have any chance to pass all of the teams in front of them, they'd probably need to get to something around 87-88 wins, requiring a .615 winning percentage. They'd need to play like a 100-win team the rest of the way. For context, here are what the four leading teams for the last playoff spot did from June 27 forward last season: 2013: Baltimore: 44-36 (.550) before, 41-41 (.500) after New York: 42-36 (.538) before, 43-41 (.512) after Tampa Bay: 41-38 (.519) before, 51-33 (.607) after Cleveland: 40-38 (.513) before, 52-43 (.619) after So sure, a team seven games behind Baltimore and New York simply could have caught them by playing well. But that team would have had to play .699 baseball to also beat out Tampa and Cleveland.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 27, 2014 8:19:27 GMT -5
I think we're underplaying how much it absolutely sucks to get traded midseason right before you're a free agent. It means you live in a hotel away from your family for two months, which pretty much noone enjoys. Contenting for a title is great in theory, but all of those guys won a title just last year, and none are in that Ray Borque-type situation where they just want to get a title before they retire. It doesn't mean you can't re-sign them the following year, especially since we're talking about a team that has the financial wherewithal to be the highest bidder for them this offseason (which is usually enough to seal the deal). But I do think it severs a significant portion of the hometown goodwill that these guys might attach to the prospect of re-signing with Boston. Maybe not all of it, especially in the case of a guy like Lester who clearly has roots in the area, but at least a good portion of it. In my mind, that means that the Red Sox have to at least come close to matching the highest offer in free agency to re-sign Lester or Uehara or Miller, which means that the cost to trading any of them mid-season is equal to the loss of any potential "hometown discount" that they might give Boston otherwise. Absolutely agree that you forfeit any hometown discount, but matching the best other offer should work. So what such a move does is trade money for talent, which is absolutely what this franchise wants and needs to do, always. It's essentially a way of working around the new limits on draft and international spending in order to acquire more minor league talent.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 27, 2014 8:28:14 GMT -5
Re the complex arguments about our playoff odds -- we have simulations that try to estimate that.
FG: 13.4% BP: 10.2% ESPN: 7.6%
Note that ESPN (CoolStandings) is based on season stats so far, rather than playing out the rest of the season according to modified pre-season projections. In contrast, FG is using ZiPS (I believe) and BP is using PECOTA.
10% - 13% playoff chances are too high to sell. I don't pull the plug till they go to single digits. However, those numbers will continue to go down as long as we don't play great.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jun 27, 2014 8:38:00 GMT -5
This article explains why the number of teams matters. Not only do the Red Sox have to play really well going forward, they also have to hope that no team in the race manages to come close to matching their winning streak. They have to play seven games better than seven other teams, which is pretty difficult. I'm not buying it. They have to play seven games better than the team who currently holds the second wild card. And if they do this, they are likely to have leapfrogged the other teams in front of them regardless if it is one or fifteen. The effect of having to play better than x teams is there I'm sure but its badly oversold. Either way, it's still too early to actually do anything of import with the roster. Nothing is gained by selling now. First thought: that's not enough on it's own? Second thought: the problem with this logic is that you're assuming that the Red Sox are the only team in the wild card race capable of going on a run. If the Red Sox gain seven games on the team in the lead they're likely to have passed the other teams? Why? Why can't a team that's two games back of the second wild card also go on a similar run at the same time? No, it's not likely that any of these teams will go on such a run, but they all have SOME chance of doing so. And if just one of them does, the Red Sox are completely screwed.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 27, 2014 8:57:16 GMT -5
I think you're going to need 87-88 wins for that 2nd wild-card. We're 36-43 and would have to go 51 and 32 to get to 87. Just don't see it. Just as likely to win the division if you to 87-88. The guys I would trade are; AJP, Miller, Badenhop, Mujica and Gomes. Not going to get much for that motley crew. I would not trade; Lester, Lackey and Koji. I would also trade some of our prospects for players who aren't rentals.
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Post by amfox1 on Jun 27, 2014 9:13:17 GMT -5
I think you're going to need 87-88 wins for that 2nd wild-card. We're 36-43 and would have to go 51 and 32 to get to 87. Just don't see it. Just as likely to win the division if you to 87-88. The guys I would trade are; AJP, Miller, Badenhop, Mujica and Gomes. Not going to get much for that motley crew. I would not trade; Lester, Lackey and Koji. I would also trade some of our prospects for players who aren't rentals. I think if the organization decides to sell, Koji clearly is at the top of the list. If they don't plan on re-signing Miller, he'd be second on the list. They will attract full value offers. Since they would be at the top of the trade list, you have to keep Mujica to see if he can take over the closer role, if given to him. Peavy, AJP and Gomes are salary dumps, pure and simple. You're trading them to clear space for RDLR, CVaz and Mookie. You are not getting more than C+ prospects for any of them. I haven't formed a view on what to do with Lester, Lackey or Badenhop, although my current inclination is to keep them all and try to extend their contracts.
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Post by ctfisher on Jun 27, 2014 9:57:27 GMT -5
The point of not selling yet and seeing if we can make a run is that we also have very little to gain by selling now. As compared to the other teams that people expect to sell (Tampa, the Cubs, Padres, etc.), we are in much better shape. As we get closer to the deadline, teams will get more desperate to make a splash, and if we show no signs of recovering, we can sell everyone we decide to at peak value. Even if we don't show real signs of improvement, maybe peavy makes 3-4 solid starts in a row and boosts his trade value, or a Price deal makes the potential return for Lester/Lackey so attractive that we have to pull the trigger on a deal. But any way you look at it, it costs us nothing, except maybe a couple of spots in next year's draft, to hold of for a few weeks on selling off all our useful assets and see if this team can do something, and it's more likely to improve the returns we might get anyway, cause guys like Peavy and Doubront can't really have their stock go much lower than it is right now
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Post by jrffam05 on Jun 27, 2014 10:15:23 GMT -5
The point of not selling yet and seeing if we can make a run is that we also have very little to gain by selling now. As compared to the other teams that people expect to sell (Tampa, the Cubs, Padres, etc.), we are in much better shape. As we get closer to the deadline, teams will get more desperate to make a splash, and if we show no signs of recovering, we can sell everyone we decide to at peak value. Even if we don't show real signs of improvement, maybe peavy makes 3-4 solid starts in a row and boosts his trade value, or a Price deal makes the potential return for Lester/Lackey so attractive that we have to pull the trigger on a deal. But any way you look at it, it costs us nothing, except maybe a couple of spots in next year's draft, to hold of for a few weeks on selling off all our useful assets and see if this team can do something, and it's more likely to improve the returns we might get anyway, cause guys like Peavy and Doubront can't really have their stock go much lower than it is right now And by much better shape you mean roughly 2 games ahead of them. Are we talking about the timing of the sell, because I am not. I voted sell but I wasn't trying to say we should sell right now (although the video I posted would suggest otherwise), instead of just when the right trade came along. I really don't get from a buyers perspective of waiting till the trade deadline. If I am Baltimore, Toronto, LAD, NYY or who ever else wants a starting pitcher I'd be looking to deal now. Get 5 more starts than you would have from that guy. It's not like those guys values are going to really tank in 1 months time, except for injury in which case you wouldn't pick the guy up anyways. I get the waiting for the right deal, but if I'm in contention I'm not waiting, I'm trying to win.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 27, 2014 10:37:07 GMT -5
There just aren't too many of what we're looking for around baseball. Power-hitting corner of's. That are cost controlled. Most GM's would rather deal their own kids than them. I see it posted quite a bit. Just don't see a match. The veteran bat is the way to make this team better next year coupled with our own prospects.
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Post by jrffam05 on Jun 27, 2014 10:50:38 GMT -5
I read on some Red Sox website a speculation article surrounding Yu Darish. It was pure speculation, but the theory was the Ranger's may shop him around, as he is an ace pitcher for a reasonable contract, and if he wins a Cy Young his last year becomes a player option, which he would not use.
Now I don't think Darvish would be moved, but if we were something like 40-37 (Yankees) I don't think there would be a better fit for a trade than Rangers Beltre and Rios. We could give up some of our pitching depth and it would also solve some spots in 2015. Wouldn't come cheap but would go a long way to fixing the team in the short term. All hypothetical of course.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 27, 2014 10:56:47 GMT -5
I read on some Red Sox website a speculation article surrounding Yu Darish. It was pure speculation, but the theory was the Ranger's may shop him around, as he is an ace pitcher for a reasonable contract, and if he wins a Cy Young his last year becomes a player option, which he would not use. Now I don't think Darvish would be moved, but if we were something like 40-37 (Yankees) I don't think there would be a better fit for a trade than Rangers Beltre and Rios. We could give up some of our pitching depth and it would also solve some spots in 2015. Wouldn't come cheap but would go a long way to fixing the team in the short term. All hypothetical of course. If we want to stay away from those 7-10yr contracts, Beltre and Cargo would make this line-up much more interesting going forward.
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Post by ctfisher on Jun 27, 2014 11:28:13 GMT -5
Yea but those teams we're 2 games ahead of (I'm assuming you mean the Rays specifically) have unquestionably been worse, and are in worse shape, without the capacity to take on salary if they want to. Moore is out for the year, I feel like Hellickson's out still too, they lost Rodney this offseason, and in general are a much weaker team than last year, especially with Will Myers going through a sophomore slump and Longoria underperforming. We have guys that will come back healthy and may contribute, and a lot more high minors talent that could contribute. I'm thinking about both timing and the possibility of winning. We still could turn it around, even if the odds against it are pretty long, so that's one argument for holding off. The other is the improvement in the market and what we might get for anyone who we might trade. Taken together, it's a pretty convincing argument to wait a few weeks. I'm reserving judgment until it actually makes sense to sell, because why not? The core of last year's team is still here, so lets see if they can turn it around a little bit, it's not like Cherington's not going to be engaging in talks anyway, I'm sure he's already fielding calls on a bunch of guys. Post all-star break, we should know for sure if this team has any real shot of getting into the race, and if they don't, sell off the short term guys we have (Pierzynski, Drew, Koji, maybe Miller) and maybe see if packaging them with an expendable prospect or 2 (Coyle, Barnes, Ranaudo) or Doubront can bring us back a young player who can help in the longer run, preferably in the outfield at this stage. That also gives us a chance to keep pushing development of the young guys, cause I think Owens, Johnson, and Swihart could all handle AAA right now, and I wouldn't mind seeing Vasquez in Boston, although I'd like him to hit a little more first ideally
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 27, 2014 11:46:47 GMT -5
Talk of going over .600 for the rest of the season seem a little ridiculous to me when we can't even win a single series against teams that aren't the Twins and Rays.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 27, 2014 13:24:37 GMT -5
I think you're going to need 87-88 wins for that 2nd wild-card. We're 36-43 and would have to go 51 and 32 to get to 87. Just don't see it. Just as likely to win the division if you to 87-88. The guys I would trade are; AJP, Miller, Badenhop, Mujica and Gomes. Not going to get much for that motley crew. I would not trade; Lester, Lackey and Koji. I would also trade some of our prospects for players who aren't rentals. I think if the organization decides to sell, Koji clearly is at the top of the list. If they don't plan on re-signing Miller, he'd be second on the list. They will attract full value offers. Since they would be at the top of the trade list, you have to keep Mujica to see if he can take over the closer role, if given to him. Peavy, AJP and Gomes are salary dumps, pure and simple. You're trading them to clear space for RDLR, CVaz and Mookie. You are not getting more than C+ prospects for any of them. I haven't formed a view on what to do with Lester, Lackey or Badenhop, although my current inclination is to keep them all and try to extend their contracts. David Ross has been the best pitch-framer in MLB this year, according to BP, and is 2nd all-time (beginning in late 2008, of course) to Jose Molina. And he can still hit lefties a bit. He actually has more trade value than AJP, I would think. I might try to dump AJP, too, though, and be a buyer for Carlos Ruiz to pair with Vazquez in 2015. Given that Gomes can still hit LHP as well, and may be one of the few guys in MLB who is an actual legitimate clubhouse presence, I think he has some small value. I would definitely trade Lester, and go with a rotation of Lackey, Buchholz, De La Rosa, Ranaudo, and probably Webster with Workman in the pen (although it could be the other way around). Whether you try to re-sign Lester depends on how the kids pitch. The prospects you get, and that extra knowledge, are well worth the hometown discount you're giving up should you decide to re-sign him. I want Koji and Miller for next year, and I want to also trade them. If they keep them I'll defer to Ben's sense that dealing them would jeopardize our chances of re-signing them, period ... but overspending money on short-term deals should no longer be a worry for this team. They should sell high on Badenhop, and I bet he yields a solid prospect. Peavy and Drew might bring back something if we eat enough money. Which they should. Turn money into talent any way you can. They should be able to deal Breslow to a smart NL club and maybe earn a C prospect. Select Rich Hill from Pawtucket and see if you can turn him into ditto. That leaves you with the following August roster: Vazquez, Napoli, Pedroia, Bogaerts, WMB, Nava, Bradley, Victorino, Holt playing most days somewhere; Herrera, Carp (also getting lots of PT to see if we can establish some trade value, perhaps for a waiver deal in August), and a backup C. The aforementioned rotation. Mujica, Tazawa, Workman or Webster, Wilson, Wright as long man; Doubront, Britton. One of the C prospects they pick up could be a AAA SP to join Barnes, Hernandez, Owens, and Johnson. Mookie comes up when there's an injury or on 9/1.
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Post by amfox1 on Jun 27, 2014 13:52:24 GMT -5
From ESPN chat
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Post by soxin8 on Jun 30, 2014 14:35:31 GMT -5
I love what ESPN's Eric Karabell said in the trade Lester discussion a few days ago. He said the Sox were going to call up Mookie and win the AL east. I have seen the Yankees make up 13 game deficits twice in my lifetime. I believe.
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Post by JackieWilsonsaid on Jun 30, 2014 14:52:31 GMT -5
I agree with Stark. As desperate as people get for starting pitching from here to the deadline, I do think Peavy has value and Doubrount as cost controlled and throwing with the correct arm, has high value as well. A year ago, Peavy was hurt, with bad stats in a tough park, and we gave up an Iggy. Google peavy trade rumors 2013 and see what the supposed offers were. Granted the contract makes a difference but you can look at that both ways.
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Post by grandsalami on Jun 30, 2014 22:28:46 GMT -5
Ryan Hannable ?@ryanhannable 5m The Red Sox have had 26 games all year where they've scored less than three runs -- 15 of them have come in the month of June.
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