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2014 Trade Deadline Thread - Discussion Only
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Post by bsout2 on Aug 1, 2014 7:47:23 GMT -5
Really hope they top this all off and sign Castillo in the next week. Then figure out what to do with everyone over the winter.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Aug 1, 2014 8:01:41 GMT -5
You lost me when you said you wanted to be like the Cubs. C'mon on man! We can't be a Bottom 5 team for a number of years. It was 1 am when I typed this so perhaps I didn't put across the thoughts as I had intended. I wasn't talking about tanking for five years and picking 1st every year like the Cubs. I was talking about my perceived advantage that the Sox had chips to deal to get these kinds of guys the Cubs have been drafted and building with a young team coming up together in the next couple of years. Basically the Sox would cut out the drafting part and skip to the prospects being advanced already at AA and close to the majors. I wasn't talking about losing 100 games every year. I mean does 1 year of Cespedes sound better than six years of Josh Bell? That kind of question. Cespedes could very well leave in a year. Bell is the kind of kid who becomes a building block. Again, don't know what prospects Ben was offered. Don't know if a left side of Boagerts and Seager was ever an option. I understand your thoughts now. That's a great way to build a team. Elite, cost-controlled position players. We found out yesterday that it's damn near impossible to get them. Couldn't get em with Jon Lester or David Price. No reason we can't extend Cespedes. Him and Craig is an all-star caliber talent. We've seen with our very own prospects such as JBJ and Xander. It's not easy to become an all-star player in MLB. I'd rather have Kris Bryant and Russell too. Maybe, we can make a real baseball trade with Theo. Pitching prospects for hitting prospects.
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Post by rjp313jr on Aug 1, 2014 8:14:33 GMT -5
So the Sox traded a boatload of valuable players and not one piece they got back is exciting. I'd love to know the prospect packages Ben turned down, like he alluded to, because the MLB take to is second rate. I don't know what else they could have done. Would you have preferred Bell who MIGHT turn into Cespedes? It's a good question. Cespedes is an unwritten story since we don't know if he will be here more than a year. He brings no chance at a pick though and isn't a very good player regardless of his WAR numbers. Players, especially a corner OF, who's value is wrapped up in his D aren't nearly as valuable as an offensive player. .300 OBO high K guy isn't exactly exciting stuff and he's a Free agent after the year. So if a Bell were an option, I may have preferred him, if for no other reason it gives you more to deal from. Maybe I'm still not fully adjusted to the current state of offense in baseball.
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Post by jmei on Aug 1, 2014 8:40:26 GMT -5
It's a good question. Cespedes is an unwritten story since we don't know if he will be here more than a year. He brings no chance at a pick though and isn't a very good player regardless of his WAR numbers. Players, especially a corner OF, who's value is wrapped up in his D aren't nearly as valuable as an offensive player. .300 OBO high K guy isn't exactly exciting stuff and he's a Free agent after the year. So if a Bell were an option, I may have preferred him, if for no other reason it gives you more to deal from. Maybe I'm still not fully adjusted to the current state of offense in baseball. He's a career .262/.318/.470 hitter, and is hitting .256/.303/.464 this year. Even on its face, those numbers are pretty decent. It's basically what we thought Will Middlebrooks was going to be after 2012-- a power hitter who doesn't get on base enough to be an elite offensive player, but who is nonetheless a very good hitter who fits well in the middle of an order. Now add in the fact that he's been playing in one of the most offense-suppressing ballparks in the league (especially for a fly ball hitter like himself), as well as the depressed offensive environment you alluded to, and Cespedes starts looking like a pretty good offensive player. Since he entered the league, his 117 wRC+ ranks 28th amongst qualified outfielders, higher than guys like Jason Heyward, Andre Ethier, and Alex Gordon over that stretch. Then add in above-average baserunning and defense, and Cespedes starts looking like a pretty valuable player. He's been worth 2.8 fWAR and 3.3 bWAR per 600 PAs over his career. No, he's not a star, but he's a well above-average regular in his prime, and those players are hard to get and expensive in free agency.
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Post by imnothipp on Aug 1, 2014 8:41:33 GMT -5
My 2 cents from yesterday.
1) The Craig acquisition is a head scratcher for me. Contract is not horrible, but 3 years after this year seems very risky. Will he bounce back. 2) I actually like Joe Kelly. I think he turns out to be a reliable middle of the rotation guy. He was really tough on Boston in game 3 last year. 3) Lester trade was fascinating. I like Cespedes in right field a lot. I hate that he has won the HR derby this year. Seems like guys really struggle after winning that contest and so far he has. Hope he come out of it. I think he will be great next year. The comp pick helps. 4) I hate how they have handled Xander this year. Really asking too much of him to go back and forth between positions. Does not look like Boston has had a real plan for him and thats a shame. 5) Obviously next 2 months are critical for Middlebrooks. 6) Personally, I think Marrero at SS and Xander at 3B is stronger then the Bogarts, Middlebrooks combo. 7) Where does Mookie Betts fit into all of this? Is he insurance in case JBJ does not hit? If JBJ does not hit does he become a 4th OF? 8) Love the Miller trade. 3 LH pitchers at Portland look to be a major strength.
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Post by saysbill on Aug 1, 2014 8:48:24 GMT -5
Many people are worried about who will anchor the rotation next year. Who knew/heard that Cespedes was available? Point being, they have a TON of trade assets, both in MLB and the minors, and I have every confidence that BC will trade for a very good (Lester-type) SP who no one knew was on the market.
This is not done, so you can't judge it as a finished product yet. Phase 1 is complete and the offense is pretty much rebuilt. Phase 2, BC will address the pitching over the winter. Trade deadline ---> April, there are more moves to come.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 1, 2014 8:54:51 GMT -5
I guess if I view Craig as a better Gomes replacement with more upside (if he bounces back), it's easier to take. But it seems like we had to take him to get Kelly which was the guy Ben wanted most.
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Post by sibbysisti on Aug 1, 2014 9:09:20 GMT -5
My 2 cents from yesterday. 1) The Craig acquisition is a head scratcher for me. Contract is not horrible, but 3 years after this year seems very risky. Will he bounce back. 2) I actually like Joe Kelly. I think he turns out to be a reliable middle of the rotation guy. He was really tough on Boston in game 3 last year. 3) Lester trade was fascinating. I like Cespedes in right field a lot. I hate that he has won the HR derby this year. Seems like guys really struggle after winning that contest and so far he has. Hope he come out of it. I think he will be great next year. The comp pick helps. 4) I hate how they have handled Xander this year. Really asking too much of him to go back and forth between positions. Does not look like Boston has had a real plan for him and thats a shame. 5) Obviously next 2 months are critical for Middlebrooks. 6) Personally, I think Marrero at SS and Xander at 3B is stronger then the Bogarts, Middlebrooks combo. 7) Where does Mookie Betts fit into all of this? Is he insurance in case JBJ does not hit? If JBJ does not hit does he become a 4th OF? 8) Love the Miller trade. 3 LH pitchers at Portland look to be a major strength. Re: #3: do you really believe that the HR Derby had any lingering effect on Cespedes' productivity? I mean, there's no pressure at all. These guys don't even wear helmets. They laugh, joke and cajole each other and realize there is really nothing at stake. Agree at #5 and #6. As for Craig, I feel this is a great value for Lackey, especially considering Kelly. Craig is a good hitter who's having an off year, like Pedroia. He's signed to a reasonable contract and should be able to slide in as Napoli's replacement after next year.
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Post by soxfan1615 on Aug 1, 2014 9:20:00 GMT -5
Many people are worried about who will anchor the rotation next year. Who knew/heard that Cespedes was available? Point being, they have a TON of trade assets, both in MLB and the minors, and I have every confidence that BC will trade for a very good (Lester-type) SP who no one knew was on the market. This is not done, so you can't judge it as a finished product yet. Phase 1 is complete and the offense is pretty much rebuilt. Phase 2, BC will address the pitching over the winter. Trade deadline ---> April, there are more moves to come. How about Chris Sale?
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Post by jmei on Aug 1, 2014 9:45:55 GMT -5
I guess if I view Craig as a better Gomes replacement with more upside (if he bounces back), it's easier to take. But it seems like we had to take him to get Kelly which was the guy Ben wanted most. I actually think Craig was the real get in that deal. My hypothesis is that Boston asked for Craig in the Peavy trade, St. Louis said no, and they revisited that when it was time to get Lester. If we assume that rebuilding the outfield was something of a priority, Craig seems like one of the better available options, whether in trade or free agency.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,825
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Post by nomar on Aug 1, 2014 10:02:29 GMT -5
I guess if I view Craig as a better Gomes replacement with more upside (if he bounces back), it's easier to take. But it seems like we had to take him to get Kelly which was the guy Ben wanted most. I actually think Craig was the real get in that deal. My hypothesis is that Boston asked for Craig in the Peavy trade, St. Louis said no, and they revisited that when it was time to get Lester. If we assume that rebuilding the outfield was something of a priority, Craig seems like one of the better available options, whether in trade or free agency. Then they must have no faith in Mookie in RF. They might as well see if he could play 3B (arm may prevent that). Hard to imagine Mookie being less valuable than Craig next year. But I still think these moves are all part of a plan. Well see.
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Post by joshv02 on Aug 1, 2014 10:06:10 GMT -5
Hard to imagine Mookie being less valuable than Craig next year. You have a weird imagination - he has a career 120 OPS+. Sure, if Craig is really a 78 OPS+ or whatever hitter, Mookie is likely better. But, if you can't imagine that a guy has a bad season, rebounds and turns back into a significantly above average hitter as he had been for the nearly 1500 PAs before then, then I think we are using a different language or you need to have more expansive fantasies.
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Post by bjb406 on Aug 1, 2014 10:34:55 GMT -5
These trades were a bit too risky for my liking. First of all, who will anchor our rotation next year? I have to assume Lester and Scherzer will be too rich for us Then you are mistaken. The Red Sox somewhere around 110 million on the books next year. So depending on how high they want to take the payroll, they could have anywhere between 40-80 million left to allocate for next season. The only spots not spoken for are 1 or 2 SP, 1 or 2 RP, and a backup catcher. To me the question isn't 'will we get one of Lester or Scherzer', its 'will we get both'. I think they will almost certainly sing/resign Lester, Koji, and Ross, and then decide what else they want to splurge on based on how people play the rest of the year.
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Post by bjb406 on Aug 1, 2014 10:51:14 GMT -5
I don't know what else they could have done. Would you have preferred Bell who MIGHT turn into Cespedes? It's a good question. Cespedes is an unwritten story since we don't know if he will be here more than a year. He brings no chance at a pick though and isn't a very good player regardless of his WAR numbers. Players, especially a corner OF, who's value is wrapped up in his D aren't nearly as valuable as an offensive player. .300 OBO high K guy isn't exactly exciting stuff and he's a Free agent after the year. So if a Bell were an option, I may have preferred him, if for no other reason it gives you more to deal from. Maybe I'm still not fully adjusted to the current state of offense in baseball. His contract stipulates we cannot offer SALARY ARBITRATION. Salary arbitration is where the team decides to retain rights to the player and go to an arbitrator to decide what their salary will be. If a team does not offer salary arbitration to a player with less than 6 years of service time, then the player becomes a free agent. His contract mentions nothing about a QUALIFYING OFFER. Submitting a qualifying offer has absolutely nothing to do with salary arbitration. We can still submit a qualifying offer in order to get a pick or to drive down his market in order to resign him.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 1, 2014 10:54:12 GMT -5
It's kind of funny thinking back about 8 months ago, the player I wanted the Red Sox to trade more than anyone else - Mike Carp - is still here, after the biggest fire sale we've ever seen. Guess it's a matter of time.
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Post by jmei on Aug 1, 2014 10:55:05 GMT -5
It's a good question. Cespedes is an unwritten story since we don't know if he will be here more than a year. He brings no chance at a pick though and isn't a very good player regardless of his WAR numbers. Players, especially a corner OF, who's value is wrapped up in his D aren't nearly as valuable as an offensive player. .300 OBO high K guy isn't exactly exciting stuff and he's a Free agent after the year. So if a Bell were an option, I may have preferred him, if for no other reason it gives you more to deal from. Maybe I'm still not fully adjusted to the current state of offense in baseball. His contract stipulates we cannot offer SALARY ARBITRATION. Salary arbitration is where the team decides to retain rights to the player and go to an arbitrator to decide what their salary will be. If a team does not offer salary arbitration to a player with less than 6 years of service time, then the player becomes a free agent. His contract mentions nothing about a QUALIFYING OFFER. Submitting a qualifying offer has absolutely nothing to do with salary arbitration. We can still submit a qualifying offer in order to get a pick or to drive down his market in order to resign him. This is not necessarily accurate. I believe you can't offer the QO to a non-tendered player, which Cespedes would be. But I'm not too sure about that.
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Post by amfox1 on Aug 1, 2014 10:55:42 GMT -5
No QO to Cespedes. It's been confirmed elsewhere.
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Post by iakovos11 on Aug 1, 2014 10:58:19 GMT -5
It's a good question. Cespedes is an unwritten story since we don't know if he will be here more than a year. He brings no chance at a pick though and isn't a very good player regardless of his WAR numbers. Players, especially a corner OF, who's value is wrapped up in his D aren't nearly as valuable as an offensive player. .300 OBO high K guy isn't exactly exciting stuff and he's a Free agent after the year. So if a Bell were an option, I may have preferred him, if for no other reason it gives you more to deal from. Maybe I'm still not fully adjusted to the current state of offense in baseball. His contract stipulates we cannot offer SALARY ARBITRATION. Salary arbitration is where the team decides to retain rights to the player and go to an arbitrator to decide what their salary will be. If a team does not offer salary arbitration to a player with less than 6 years of service time, then the player becomes a free agent. His contract mentions nothing about a QUALIFYING OFFER. Submitting a qualifying offer has absolutely nothing to do with salary arbitration. We can still submit a qualifying offer in order to get a pick or to drive down his market in order to resign him. I'm pretty sure it was determined in the Lester trade thread (and possibly confirmed by reliable sources on twitter) that Cespedes contract doesn't permit a QO either.
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Post by joshv02 on Aug 1, 2014 11:00:55 GMT -5
His contract mentions nothing about a QUALIFYING OFFER. Submitting a qualifying offer has absolutely nothing to do with salary arbitration. We can still submit a qualifying offer in order to get a pick or to drive down his market in order to resign him. I've mentioned this before, but I think that the CBA only allows for you to offer a qualifying offer to those free agents with 6 plus years experience (its an interplay between two sections in article XX). Anyway, Speier's source agree that they cannot offer him a QO. fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2014/07/31/red-sox-send-jon-lester-jonny-gomes-for-yoenis-cespedes/
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Post by saysbill on Aug 1, 2014 11:01:29 GMT -5
Craig has had a few leg/foot injuries the past couple of seasons. Napoli is a FA after next season. Is it possible that Craig becomes the Sox 1B in 2016 and open LF for Cespedes and putting Betts in RF (or the other way around)?
I know this is a prospects site and some/most don't like this idea, but I see Betts as a headliner in a deal for a SP or another young, power bat. But as it stands right now, if JBJ can progress at the plate (or the offense is built up around him enough that they can withstand the offense for his defense), there is no room in the OF. Xander will get a 2mo. trial at SS and if he can't pull it off, I think he swings to 3B with Marrero taking over at SS next season. I just doubt the Betts will get any run at SS (though I would love it to get his bat in the lineup to lead off).
There are going to be more moves. I think one or more of Cespedes (1yr left), Victorino (1yr left), JBJ, Betts, Nava, Carp, and Napoli (1yr left) could be traded in the offseason to unclog the logjam at OF/1B.
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Post by joshv02 on Aug 1, 2014 11:02:38 GMT -5
Four straight posts on the qualifying offer subject! Why'd you break the string?!
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 1, 2014 11:04:10 GMT -5
I think we'll know more regarding Betts depending on how much he improves in the OF for the rest of the season. If he makes great strides, they might see him as making JBJ expendable or one of Craig, Cespedes or Napoli this winter. Or maybe they'll just leave him in AAA, blocked. You can justify having him in AAA now to work on OF defense. But the bat is so ready.
He needs a position.
Edit: Can Cespedes get a QO?
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Aug 1, 2014 11:06:04 GMT -5
This is one of the most interesting, and original, pieces I have read on yesterday's Sox transactions - much better than the one I wrote for my blog, or for that matter many others that I read. His point is that the Sox are copying Oakland in going after proven major leaguers rather than prospects, but major leaguers on relatively short contracts. He points out that right now the Sox have only $13 million committed in 2016. I think you need a subscription to read this, but at $4.95 a month it is bargain. www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=24318
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,825
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Post by nomar on Aug 1, 2014 11:08:32 GMT -5
Hard to imagine Mookie being less valuable than Craig next year. You have a weird imagination - he has a career 120 OPS+. Sure, if Craig is really a 78 OPS+ or whatever hitter, Mookie is likely better. But, if you can't imagine that a guy has a bad season, rebounds and turns back into a significantly above average hitter as he had been for the nearly 1500 PAs before then, then I think we are using a different language or you need to have more expansive fantasies. I think Mookie's defense at a corner and baserunning will catch him up even if he does rebound well. I guess that's me also being overconfident in Mookie though.
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Post by oilcansman on Aug 1, 2014 11:13:00 GMT -5
The thing I like about the deals yesterday is the Craig and Cespedes are nearly sure things. Craig has a good contract,and his recent down turn is injury related. I worry about his defense though. He looks like a Mike Greenwell type defender in left. The Lackey trade was outstanding.
Nonetheless, it was a terrible mistake no holding onto Lester. Number one pitchers are like nfl quarterbacks. You can think you are a contender without one, but in the end end you are only kidding yourself
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