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Discussion of 2014 and 2015 pitching rotations
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Post by nexus on Dec 10, 2014 13:15:14 GMT -5
Okay, maybe I was being a bit dramatic. Please try 'any baseball player ever who's had success after their 2nd TJ surgery'. I think the list is currently 1 season of Joakim Soria, but I could be wrong.
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Post by dmaineah on Dec 10, 2014 13:36:39 GMT -5
Really doubt we end up with two of Leake, Porcello and Niese. Niese alone is probably like a 5% chance at best. Those are some weird rankings my friend
Others I would trade for if I had to look deeper are; ( in no particular order)
Scott Kazmir, Hisashi Iwakuma, Dillion Gee, Ian Kennedy, Tyson Ross, Andrew Cashner, Wade Miley, Natan Eovaldi
The only available free agents left that I would Sign; ( and only if it was for 2yrs max)
Brandon McCarthy, Ervin Santana
Pitchers I would sign to an incentive loaded contract due to injuries;
Josh Johnson, Kris Medlen
I would pass on both Shields & Masterson
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Post by nexus on Dec 10, 2014 14:03:08 GMT -5
That's why we shouldn't be paying Amaro's prices. I wouldn't ever dream of giving up Swihart for any 30 year old pitcher. Betts and Bogaerts I can agree with. But I have no problem giving up a top 30 prospect for a current top 10 pitcher who now has, as yesterday's events showed, a significantly below-market contract. I wouldn't want to give up a ton on top of Swihart, but if Amaro came to me and said "Swihart for Hamels, straight up" I'd do it. I am not sure I agree, at least I hope the Red Sox are not thinking this way. They weren't willing to budge beyond $135M over 6 for a soon-to-be 31 year old they knew better than just about anyone on the planet, so why would they suddenly think $110M over 5 for someone the same age and slightly more mileage on the arm is considered a significantly below market contract? I just don't think they see much surplus value in Hamels, at least not enough to seriously ponder trading a valuable piece like Swihart.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 10, 2014 16:57:30 GMT -5
One thing they can do to increase their trade clout is re-sign Burke Badenhop and deal Brandon Workman, who has shown he can be a solid 5th starter with #4 upside. Workman as a reliever and spot starter is a luxury we are no longer really in a position to enjoy.
Cespedes, Ranaudo, Workman, Marrero, Coyle, and Hembree or Wilson should absolutely be able to land you two good rentals (e.g. Fister and Porcello), and it it isn't, there are all the prospects ranked 21+.
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Post by larrycook on Dec 10, 2014 21:14:24 GMT -5
One thing they can do to increase their trade clout is re-sign Burke Badenhop and deal Brandon Workman, who has shown he can be a solid 5th starter with #4 upside. Workman as a reliever and spot starter is a luxury we are no longer really in a position to enjoy. Cespedes, Ranaudo, Workman, Marrero, Coyle, and Hembree or Wilson should absolutely be able to land you two good rentals (e.g. Fister and Porcello), and it it isn't, there are all the prospects ranked 21+. I think we have to keep in mind that cherrington over values our prospects. I think we need to look at cherrington looking to move lesser members of the roster and involving less prospect heavy trades.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 11, 2014 6:01:59 GMT -5
One thing they can do to increase their trade clout is re-sign Burke Badenhop and deal Brandon Workman, who has shown he can be a solid 5th starter with #4 upside. Workman as a reliever and spot starter is a luxury we are no longer really in a position to enjoy. Cespedes, Ranaudo, Workman, Marrero, Coyle, and Hembree or Wilson should absolutely be able to land you two good rentals (e.g. Fister and Porcello), and it it isn't, there are all the prospects ranked 21+. I think we have to keep in mind that cherrington over values our prospects. I think we need to look at cherrington looking to move lesser members of the roster and involving less prospect heavy trades. I'm not sure that's true, and even if it is, I'm not sure how it relates to my point. There's certainly no evidence that he overvalues prospects (other than potential superstars) who have a zero chance of playing for us at their best position, which describes basically everyone I mentioned.
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Post by taftreign on Dec 11, 2014 9:49:58 GMT -5
So adding Porcello and Miley to Buchholz and Kelly would bring some stability to a questionable rotation. Now I imagine the search (Scherzer, think this is unlikely) or trade (Hamels, Cueto, Zimmermann . . ., more likely scenario) is on full go..
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Dec 11, 2014 10:20:39 GMT -5
Anyone think that adding all these ground ball pitchers makes Marrero a little more valuable internally, especially if it's a shift in organizational priority? If Bogaerts ends up needing to move (but where?), having a sure-handed SS option with ML-ready defense sounds important. Not saying it means we don't trade him, but I do wonder if becomes a consideration.
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Post by The Town Sports Cards on Dec 11, 2014 10:27:32 GMT -5
Everyone seems to have opinions on a pitcher being good enough to be our #1, or #2. But during the regular season, does it really matter what order these guys pitch in? And more importantly, the idea of the Sox "needing a #1 pitcher" or "player X isn't good enough to be our #2" seems like a pretty small minded opinion. I guess I pose the question this way, what would you rather have for a rotation: a #1, #3, #4, #4, #5 or 5 #3's? I think we win more games on average with the all #3's rotation, and countless teams have proved you don't need an Ace to make the playoffs. The argument of whether you need an Ace once you're in the playoffs is a worthy conversation to have, but shouldn't Ben's offseason goal be to get the Sox to the playoffs in 2015, not get the Sox a player to start game 1 in the ALDS? I'll take Shields(#2)/Porcello(#3)/Buchholz(#3)/Miley(#3/4)/Kelly(#3/4) over Lester(#1/2)/Masterson(#3)/Buchholz(#3)/Kelly(#3/4)/De La Rosa (#4/5)
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 11, 2014 11:16:20 GMT -5
All that remains is for Jon Lester to be the player named later in the Doubront trade and rotation is set.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 11, 2014 11:18:40 GMT -5
Cafardo today suggested Swihart + Ranaudo (+ ...) for Hamels ... go to the trade subforum and let us know what you think of that.
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Post by awall on Dec 11, 2014 11:56:24 GMT -5
Buster Olney The Red Sox have an agreement with Justin Masterson.
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Post by elguapo on Dec 11, 2014 12:06:55 GMT -5
Anyone think that adding all these ground ball pitchers makes Marrero a little more valuable internally, especially if it's a shift in organizational priority? It makes sense to keep Marrero for another year anyway, since he's our primary SS depth and can start breaking into the Majors in stretches. I don't think you want to see Hanley or Holt at 6 for significant periods of time. Well, maybe Holt is traded and we pick up a good backup SS.
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Post by elguapo on Dec 11, 2014 12:24:26 GMT -5
Porcello: 182 176 177 204 Miley: 194 202 201 Masterson: 216 206 193 [128]
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Post by dangermike on Dec 11, 2014 12:34:42 GMT -5
What are the chances someone like Kelly ends up in the pen now that we have an abundance of SP? I know it could all change with a telephone call, but since he's fairly superfluous and has experience as a RP in the minors, it could happen. I would be fairly happy if it did too- I think his fastball is a difference maker and we have dealt pretty much everyone with a good fastball in the last 6 months. I know that it takes more than throwing hard to be a good bullpen arm but we have no one who can really put a charge on the ball in the pen.
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Post by dmaineah on Dec 11, 2014 12:43:36 GMT -5
What are the chances someone like Kelly ends up in the pen now that we have an abundance of SP? I know it could all change with a telephone call, but since he's fairly superfluous and has experience as a RP in the minors, it could happen. I would be fairly happy if it did too- I think his fastball is a difference maker and we have dealt pretty much everyone with a good fastball in the last 6 months. I know that it takes more than throwing hard to be a good bullpen arm but we have no one who can really put a charge on the ball in the pen.
??
I only count 5
Buchholz, Porcello, Miley, Kelly, Masterson
9 if are you are counting Ranaudo, Rodriguez, Workman & Barnes
Those 4 do not equal an abundance
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Post by kman22 on Dec 11, 2014 12:45:58 GMT -5
I think that abundance was including the anticipated top of the rotation addition.
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Post by rangoon82 on Dec 11, 2014 12:55:15 GMT -5
Buchholz can usually be counted on to be plagued with injuries, so an ace plus Kelly,Miley,Porcello, and Masterson seems right.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Dec 11, 2014 13:07:00 GMT -5
Rob Bradford ?@bradfo 8s8 seconds ago As @chriscotillo mentioned yesterday, source confirms Red Sox met with James Shields last night
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Dec 11, 2014 13:12:52 GMT -5
If we were to sign Shields and have 6 starters, flipping 2 of them for one would be interesting because Shields would already be getting paid around $20M per season. Iwakuma would be the ideal type of guy there IMO. Someone under the radar who will be extended for around $14 AAV rather than $20
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Post by pedey on Dec 11, 2014 13:17:32 GMT -5
So it appears the Sox have five #3 starters right now. Buchholz, Kelley, Miley, porcello, masterson. I thought they were going to leave a rotation spot open for a young guy to win in spring training??
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 11, 2014 13:22:53 GMT -5
If we were to sign Shields and have 6 starters, flipping 2 of them for one would be interesting because Shields would already be getting paid around $20M per season. Iwakuma would be the ideal type of guy there IMO. Someone under the radar who will be extended for around $14 AAV rather than $20 you're not going to turn 2 mediocre starters into 1 very good one... just highly unlikely. Iwakuma is not under the radar in the Baseball world. He's really really good and it's completely known. Casual fans may not realize who he is, but that's not going to drive his Free Agent price down. What may drive it down is the fact that he'll be entering he age 35 season. Which also makes him risky.
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Post by kman22 on Dec 11, 2014 13:24:33 GMT -5
I know that it is easy to say, due in large part to the fact that it isn't my money, but if they are entertaining the idea of signing Shields for $20M+, I would much rather them pony up the difference and get Scherzer. He's a legitimate top of the rotation starter that can pitch in the postseason. That's where this team is aiming to be, playing baseball in October. Scherzer just seems way more valuable than Shields, even when you account for the difference in price (albeit on a shorter contract for Shields).
Plus, he'd cost a third round pick. If you wait until next year to sign a true #1, it will likely cost your first round pick.
With Victorino coming off the books next year, you'd more than cover the difference in salary between the two, and Victorino wouldn't require a replacement, as he's currently in line to be a 4th OF. To some extent, that falls in line with the idea of going over the luxury tax ceiling for one year.
It will never happen, but if free agency is the route they are taking, Scherzer seems like a much better decision.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Dec 11, 2014 13:27:25 GMT -5
If we were to sign Shields and have 6 starters, flipping 2 of them for one would be interesting because Shields would already be getting paid around $20M per season. Iwakuma would be the ideal type of guy there IMO. Someone under the radar who will be extended for around $14 AAV rather than $20 you're not going to turn 2 mediocre starters into 1 very good one... just highly unlikely. Iwakuma is not under the radar in the Baseball world. He's really really good and it's completely known. Casual fans may not realize who he is, but that's not going to drive his Free Agent price down. What may drive it down is the fact that he'll be entering he age 35 season. Which also makes him risky. What's impossible about making two starters with control part of a package for a good starter?
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 11, 2014 13:55:53 GMT -5
Well first of all, I said highly unlikely, not impossible, but Porcello has no control so he's out and Masterson can't be traded so your idea of turning 2 of Buchholz, Miley and Kelly into a very good starter doesn't seem likely to me. Too much money would be owed to those 2 pitchers. What team would want to take that much money back and give up something?
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